This 1 Stock Can Change (EARLY BUYERS) Lives..

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Folks, in today's video, we're going to break down the latest on the market and plays, and then we're going to go on to one stock that I believe can change early buyers lives and for the better.

[00:00:09]Just to be specific, this stock right now is trading dirt cheap at historical lows. At the same time that the company itself is printing at levels nobody has ever seen before. I think if you buy now and you wait, well, you're going to be sitting very, very pretty this time next year. I'll present the case for it and I'll let you be the judge. It's a very straightforward case, but I think it's important to really understand and break it down. And then lastly, we'll move on to our sponsored segment on Bonsai International, ticker symbol BNZI, the AI powered marketing tech company quietly building one of the more interesting platforms in the AI march space. Bonsai is the company behind Deio, the enterprise webinar platform used by names like Autodesk, Rash, Adobe, and Capital 1. And over the past year, they've been layering on AI powered video, web development, audience targeting, and now sales acceleration to give marketers a single connected platform instead of the 100 plus disconnected tools most enterprise teams are stuck with today. I'll present the company and why you may want to take a look. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence and all ideas presented. Lots of people get frisky, frisky, but they're not thinking about their risky risky. And vice versa, big problem in today's society. Don't be a number. Don't be a statistic. Do your own frisk. Take your own risk. Now, if you're a member of Zip Trader Plus or you're very adept at following and tracking us, well, you know, we have the holy Zip Trader 25, which is basically 25 of our core buy and hold stocks that we believe in rain or shine. We see dips as opportunities in these. We see DC long-term as a great strategy for these.

[00:01:36]And while the market has bounced the last month, o have these done well. If you look at the one-mon performance, Nvidia up 19.33%, Microsoft up 14.39%, Google up 29.8, 85%. Palanteer down 7% with the SAS apocalypse. Tesla up 18.2%.

[00:01:54]AVGO Broadcom up 26.43%.

[00:01:57]Meta up 8.12% month overmonth. AMD up 85.83% TSM up 21.06%.

[00:02:07]OCL Oracle up 37.87%.

[00:02:10]ARM up 50.75%.

[00:02:14]Oof. Oof. PNW up 15.8. 88% Crowd Strike up 18.86% UNH up 19.30%.

[00:02:23]When it comes down to the aggressive growth, more speculative area of our Zip Trader 25, APLD up 68.71%.

[00:02:31]SMCI, this one got a lot of hate, 55.98% up. HIMS up 32.92%.

[00:02:37]Hood up 11.20%.

[00:02:40]TEM, which is a big Nancy Pelosi pick, too, 7.65% up. path with the SAS apocalypse only up just under a percent data center play up 69.17% Mara lovely Mara up 43% SoFi 1.55% not so good coin up 11.51% NBIS 63.14% up in a month that's a pretty crazy month-over-month bounce if you go back years we preach buying rain or shine for this very specific reason because long-term those who buy good assets at good prices they're the ones that do well they're the ones that come home to mama and papa with some extra dollars.

[00:03:16]So anyways, a big fat congratulations to folks that believed in these stocks, have been buying it over time, and especially folks that bought the dip.

[00:03:22]This is why we do what we do coming out here so aggressively during these big dysphoria dip cycles when all the doom fibers are saying we're fools. Because if you are somebody that's buying the dip on good assets at good prices, especially well, you're going to be doing very very well long term. The doom maxers don't want you to know that because it upsets them because they want everything to go to zero. They want only cash to do well and cash never does well. So anyway, something to think about there. Now, the other thing I want you to keep in mind is that a lot of people make the mistake of rotating into whatever the shiny object is. Just an example, take our AMD pick. We came out so hard, so often video after video, we alerted option after option on it. We put out price thesis, price target after price target. It's been on our core conviction list forever, and it was one of the most frequently talked about stocks specifically. However, it underperformed for a long time, so a lot of people just weren't interested in it.

[00:04:08]They wanted to rotate into new shinier objects. It was considered a dud. Well, now it's the middle of 2026, and it's a completely different story, ain't it?

[00:04:16]That's why you have to actually care about what the company is doing beneath the surface. Understand the actual trends that are driving these companies like GPUs and CPUs, in this case, CPUs really going parabolic, and which companies are specializing in them.

[00:04:28]Rotations are normal and different cycles have different big shiny objects.

[00:04:32]And the key is not chasing the shiny objects. It's understanding that, hey, right now when something's shining, that means that something else isn't shining.

[00:04:39]For example, right now we're seeing the same story with software. Everybody is saying software is a scam. Software is a scam. And then all of a sudden when software season comes back in six months to a year, what are people going to say?

[00:04:49]They're going to say hardware is a scam.

[00:04:50]And you're going to see all these big chip companies start to have their downtrends. This is what we've seen year after year after year. Okay, now it's time to get into the broader market situation. Seen a lot of highs being hit lately, and a lot of people are like, you know, Charlie, the market's at alltime highs again. Isn't it too expensive? Shouldn't I wait for a crash?

[00:05:06]History can give us a really good guide here. So, since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed at all-time highs roughly 7% of all trading days. If the market hits a new high about 7% of the time, that's roughly one new high out of every 14 trading sessions on average. That's one every 2 to 3 weeks over a 75- year period. If you look at the decadeby decade pattern, the 1980s, a strong bullrunn decade, printed 190 record closes. The 1990s, a generational bull market, printed 311. 2000s was the lost decade with the dotcom crash and the financial crisis which printed just 13 new highs. And then the 2010s came back with 242 records. And then the 2020s, o, we've already printed around 215 record closes through May of 2026. At this pace, the 2020s could end up being the best decade ever. Now, look, I've never been one for chasing. I actually prefer buying good assets at good prices, and even better so if it's on a massive dip.

[00:06:01]However, the data actually suggests that it doesn't really matter that much when you're looking at broader markets. If you look at buying at highs versus random days, city's Wealth Investment Lab ran a study covering every record high day from January 1960 through July of 2025, 1,195 record closes in total.

[00:06:17]And they asked a very simple question.

[00:06:19]If you bought the S&P 500 specifically on a record high day, did you do worse than someone who bought on a random Tuesday? Well, the answer is that statistically you had statistically identical returns over a 1-year, 3year, and 5-year holding period. Let me say that again because it's it's pretty important. 65 years of data, every single record high since 1960. And buying at the top produced the same forward returns as buying on any other day of the week. So, the fear that you're going to get destroyed buying into markets at a high is based really on doom vibing. It's not based on actual performance. Next, we got to talk about the cost of waiting for a dip. As somebody who's been on YouTube for many, many years, I'll see the same comments again and again. I'm just waiting for a 5, 10, 20% dip. I'm waiting for a crash, and then when the crash comes, I'm waiting for it to go down even more.

[00:07:06]Even more. No, it's not down enough. And then when it is down enough, they're like, okay, things are just too bad.

[00:07:11]They'll never come back. Do maxers love the phrase, be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. But the problem is that in reality, what they are is fearful when others are greedy and also fearful when others are fearful. And so what ends up happening is people just never buy the dip or they never put in that extra capital. City looked into this too. They said the average weight for even a 5% pullback after a record high is 143 trading days. That's almost 7 months on the sidelines. People who held out for that 5% drop were only invested 62.5% of the time. The folks waiting for a 10% drop an average of 225 trading days. And they were invested less than 45% of the time. Out of the market more than half the time. They're missing compounding.

[00:07:50]and they're missing the run. Compare that to somebody who just bought at the high. Well, they were invested 100% of the time. They were present for all of the best days of the market. There was zero opportunity cost there. Meanwhile, those who are just stacking cash, cash, cash for many, many years while markets go higher, well, not only are they going to have to buy back into markets at much higher levels, but also their cash just completely got destroyed. So, when you hear, I'll just wait for a pullback. I want to stay out of markets until a pullback happens. Well, historically, that's one of the worst trades you can make. It'd be better just to buy slowly over time, good assets at good prices.

[00:08:20]and of course plow heavier when you get those big dips. Okay, let's talk about the liquidity engine. So highs are normal, but why do they keep happening?

[00:08:28]Well, that brings you to liquidity. You have to look at the liquidity. So in February of 2020, right before CO, the M2 money supply in the US was about 15.5 trillion as of March 2026. The latest reading is $22.69 trillion in counting.

[00:08:41]That means there are 7.2 trillion more dollars floating around in the economy than there were just 6 years ago. That's about a 46% increase. And here's the kicker. M2 is still expanding, not contracting, and it's going to expand a lot more substantially before you die.

[00:08:56]Whether you die tomorrow or whether you die in 50 years, it's going to expand much more substantially. Year-over-year growth in March 2026 was about 4.6%. Not the 27% insanity of 2021, but nothing like the contraction we saw in 2022 and 2023. Now, why does this matter? Well, think about this. Stocks are priced in dollars. when the supply of dollars is expanding at four to 5% a year, but the supply of S&P 500 shares is roughly flat, actually shrinking when you net out buybacks. Well, there's just simply mathematical pressure for stocks to rise. Now, when you look at the M2 supply chart from 2018 to 2026, here's the picture in chart form. You could see the slow grind from 2018 through early 2020, that orange dot in February 2020, the precoid baseline at 15.5 trillion, then the explosive surgy mixery through 2021 as the Fed and Treasury flooded the system. Then the 2022 2023 contraction the only meaningful pullback in M2 supply in this window and then from 2024 forward that line is climbing again. If you actually look at what markets did during all these periods of time well during the period of time where M2 was contracting stocks contracted when you look at the period of time where it was expanding well stocks expanded and long-term it all nets out. If you price the S&P 500 against M2 instead of against dollars the chart looks much less impressive than it does in nominal terms. We're much closer to historical averages than the all-time high headlines suggest and that the doombearers and doom vibers and doom scrollers and doom maxers want you to believe. Now, the reason why I came out so aggressively to buy the dip during the US Iran conflict dip during the tariff dip last year during COVID and a million other little dips here and there is specifically because while I didn't know how and when the economy, the market and earnings were going to bounce back, well, it was pretty damn certain that the M2 money supply was going to continue to expand. And so, just by nature of that, well, stocks are an offensive safe haven. Next, earnings.

[00:10:44]So, a lot of people think that they're paying a lot for stocks right now.

[00:10:48]However, if you actually look at what you're paying for, not just the actual price now relative to a month ago, but what you're actually paying for, well, earnings are really, really solid. And according to Fact Set's most recent earning season update, Q1 2026 came in like this. Year-over-year EPS growth positive 27.1%, the highest growth rate since Q4 of 2021. Beat rate 84% of companies beating estimates, the highest since Q2 of 2021.

[00:11:12]beat magnitude aggregate earnings 20.7% above estimates versus a 5-year average of 7.3% and net profit margin 13.4%.

[00:11:21]This is the highest in modern history.

[00:11:22]So when people say these companies are all just fraud and scam and hype, well actually if you look at the data, they're printing real money. So you can compare it to previous market conditions and previous eyes where the companies had zero earnings and you could say now is the same. However, that won't be based on facts or data. That will be based on doom vibing. Now the more important thing is that this isn't a one quarter spike. You look at the forecast Q2 2026 21.3% Q3 23% Q4 20.6% full year 2026 EPS growth 20.6%. Now I want you to think about this math. So if the S&P 500 is around 7,300 well forward PE of 20.9 means the market is paying about $20.90 per dollar of next year earnings. That sounds high, sure, but earnings are growing 20% this year and 10% next year.

[00:12:08]If you just freeze the S&P at today's price and let earnings grow as a forecast, while the Ford PE falls into the high teens within 18 to 24 months without the index dropping a single point. So, let me just give you a three-pillar summary of what's going on with today's market. So, let's just bring it home here. Number one, all-time highs are normal. They happen 7% of all trading days they cluster and buying at the high has historically produced the same forward returns as buying on any other day. Two, M2 is at 22.69 trillion and growing 4.6% a year. The dollar pile is expanding faster than the equity pile is shrinking. And Fed cuts are about to add to that tailwind. Three, earnings are doing the heavy lifting. 27% Q1 growth, 84% beat rate, 13.4% margins.

[00:12:50]The E and PE is sprinting to catch up to the P in a very, very beautiful way.

[00:12:55]Will there be pullbacks? Of course, there will always be pullbacks. So, be aware of that. But look, right now, you're in a situation where the fundamentals look strong. The liquidity backdrop is very, very supportive. And the historical data on buying at all-time highs is actually positive. So, things to know. Okay, now it's time for our main entree. The stock that I believe will change early buyers lives.

[00:13:13]So, if you put me in a little room and you said, "Charlie, you have to name one stock. One stock and if it does well year-over-year, if it does well by the end of next year, we'll let you out of the room." Well, the stock number one would be Service Now. And the reason is because it's down so much. The business model itself is so great. And almost all of the discount is is due to panic SAS apocalypse rhetoric. rhetoric that by the way is based on something that Service Now has already fixed for itself. Service Now stock is down about 58% from its highs. A company growing revenue 21% a year, pulling in 4.6 billion in free cash flow, sitting on 12.85 billion in contracted future revenue. Now, Wall Street isn't selling NO because the business is broken. No, no, no. They're selling it because every software stock has gotten dumped into the same garbage can under the whole SAS apocalypse narrative. Now, a quick rundown on what Service Now does. If you're a big company, a bank, a hospital, federal agency, Fortune 500, well, there's thousands and thousands of internal processes. If you think about just new employee starts, a dozen things have to happen. Laptop ordered, email created, badge issued, software access granted, training scheduled. Now, multiply that across HR, IT, finance, legal, customer support. It's an absolute mess. Service Now is the platform that runs and automates all of it. Their flagship product, the configuration management database, is the master map of every piece of software, hardware, and process inside a giant enterprise. It's the brain stem of corporate IT. Their software isn't optional. It's not a nice to have. It's not a tool one employee uses for one task. It's actually the system of record an entire IT department runs on. Built up over years of audit trails, security permissions, custom workflows, and compliance requirements. Once a Fortune 500 has it deployed, ripping it out would take years and cost a fortune.

[00:14:51]This is the same kind of moat that made Microsoft Windows untouchable for decades. Service Now isn't a SAS app.

[00:14:57]It's actually the plumbing. and plumbing doesn't get cancelled because of a shiny new AI tool, despite what the doomy mcdoomies want to say. Now, let's talk about the fear that's hammering the entire software sector. So, it's called seat compression. Basically, if AI agents can do the work of five employees, well, companies don't need as many software seats, so subscription revenue collapses. That's the bare case behind the entire SAS apocalypse. On paper, it sounds scary, sure, but for Service Now specifically, the numbers are actually saying the opposite. So, if you care about numbers over narrative, well, well, things are very, very different. And once you actually look at them, the panic story in my view falls completely apart. So if you start with the seat business, the part that's supposedly getting eaten alive. Well, subscription revenue grew 21% last quarter. CRPO, which that grew 25%. They closed 244 deals worth more than $1 million each in a single quarter if AI was killing seatbased software. Service Now seat business should be shrinking.

[00:15:47]However, it's not. It's accelerating. So it's going in the complete opposite direction of the narrative. Now, why is that? Well, for starters, the people paying for Service Now seats are fulfillers. They're called fulfillers.

[00:15:57]IT staff, HR specialists, security analysts, customer service leads, these are the people running missionritical workflows. AI isn't replacing them. No, no, no. It's being deployed next to them to make them more productive. And every AI deployment puts more work through Service Now's platform, which makes these seats more valuable, not less.

[00:16:14]Take a look at how this shows up on the financials. So, Service Now pulled in 4.64 billion in free cash flow last year at a 35% free cash flow margin. That's a higher cash conversion rate than Apple, Microsoft, or Google. Gross margins are 77.5%, operating margins are 15% and still climbing with another five or six points of room as the business scales.

[00:16:34]So, this isn't some growth at all cost story burning cash and hope full of opium. No, no, no. It's it's actually a money printer and the money printing is running faster at the same time that the stock is going down. Perhaps the most important part of the story here is that Service Now isn't just defending its seat business. They're actually also winning the pivot away from seat pricing. Their CFO said in late April that more than 50% of new business is now coming from non seat pricing models.

[00:16:58]The exact transition that's supposed to be killing SAS. Service Now is leading it. Half of every new dollar they sign is already on this new model. So two things here. Number one, the seat pricing model is actually expanding rapidly. Clients love it. Point two, the nonseat model is expanding rapidly too.

[00:17:16]And it's industryleading. Service Now saw the SAS apocalypse coming. So they've already been aggressively building out their non-seat pricing business model and it's the best in the world. And on top of that, their actual seat pricing model is expanding rapidly as well, showing that clients continue to want to use their seat pricing, too.

[00:17:32]Now, back in April, Service Now rolled out three new tiers, Foundation, Advanced, and Prime. Each with built-in AI token pools customers commit to upfront. Heavy users pay overage when they blow past their pool. They call it a toolgate model and it works just like a utility charging for electricity. The more work service now's platform performs, the more they get paid. Every AI agent an enterprise deploys, every workflow these agents kick off, every transaction they run, it all goes through this meter. So this flips the entire SAS apocalypse thesis on its head. Completely destroys it. I would argue the whole bare case is that AI does more work, so companies need fewer humans, so software vendors collect less. Service Now's Tollgate model breaks the link between revenue and headcount completely. AI does more work, more workflows through the platform and Service Now gets paid more. They've lined themselves up to succeed in the same wave that everybody thinks is going to destroy them. So anyways, that's my take. I think right now is a generational buying opportunity for Service Now stock, ticker symbol NO. You can let us know your thoughts down below. And now it's time for our sponsored segment on Bonsai International, ticker symbol BNZI.

[00:18:30]Bonsai is an AI powered marketing and sales technology company. At its core, Bonsai builds software that helps businesses do the four things every marketing team is trying to do better.

[00:18:39]Find the right audience, engage them with great content, capture and enrich data along the way, and measure what's actually working. The company's flagship product, Demio, is an AI enhanced webinar and virtual events platform used by enterprise marketing and sales teams to run live and on demand events around Demio. Bonsai has assembled a portfolio of complimentary AI powered tools for video production, video animation, audience targeting, web development, and sales acceleration. All designed to make marketers dramatically faster and more effective at their jobs. So, what's the market gap here, Charlie? The average enterprise marketer today is juggling well over a hundred separate tools, and the fragmentation creates disjointed customer experiences, siloed data, and a constant operational headache. Buyers expect personalization, AI is rewiring how marketing gets done, and CMOs are openly looking to simplify their stacks rather than add more vendors. The global martekch market is on a clear long-term growth trajectory expected to expand into a multi-t trillion dollar category over the next decade. Now, here's where Bonsai comes in. So, so Bonsai operates as a SAS platform built around a portfolio of AI powered products, each targeting a specific point in the marketing and sales workflow. Demio is the company's webinar and virtual event platform augmented with AI moderation that helps hosts run smoother, more engaging events. Open reel is an enterprisegrade remote video production tool used by marketing and content teams to produce high-quality video at scale without the cost of traditional production. Create Studio is an AIdriven 3D video creation and animation product with a large creator base. Superblocks, acquired in November 2025, is an agentic AI platform that lets marketers describe what they want in plain language and have the AI build and host professional websites, landing pages, and event registration pages, eliminating the need for rigid template builders or developer time. Boost and reach handles audience targeting and event amplification, helping customers fill the top of the funnel. Now, the thread tying it all together is AI. Bonsai is embedding AI capability, shared authentication, and a unified data layer across the portfolio, so customers get a connected experience instead of a stitched together patchwork of disconnected tools. The petting acquisition of Connect and Sell and AI sales acceleration platform would extend Bonsai's reach from marketing engagement into outbound sales execution. Now, the deal is currently structured as a non-binding letter of intent and is expected to close in early Q2 2026 subject to definitive agreement and closing conditions. The customer base is genuinely impressive for a company of its size. Bonsai serves a global footprint spanning dozens of countries with deep penetration in healthcare, financial services, and enterprise technology. Customer relationships include names like Autodesk, Garage, Adobe, Capital 1, Crowdstrike, Bristol Myers, Squib, United Health Group, Service Now, RBC, Huelet, Packard Enterprises, Dell Technologies, New York Life, and Thermoffisher Scientific. That kind of blue chip logo book is hard to build and signals real product market fit at the enterprise level. Bonsai is led by founder Joe Davyy is chairman and CEO, who has been the architect of the company's AI platform vision from day one. The senior team has been materially upgraded over the past year. Dean Ditto joined as chief financial officer, bringing decades of finance experience.

[00:21:47]Michael Curtsman came on as chief revenue officer and Mac. Mccertie joined as VP of sales, a deliberate buildout of the go-to market function as Bonsai scales into the enterprise. The team's product roadmap balances internal AI development with with selective acquisitions of profitable AI aligned businesses that expand the platform.

[00:22:04]Now, of course, this is a small cap and small caps are quite risky. Bonszai has historically relied on debt facilities and at the market equity issuance aka dilution to fund operations and acquisitions which of course creates ongoing and further dilution and refinancing risk. The connect and sell deal is still a non-binding agreement and we have to see where that goes.

[00:22:22]Bonsai is still operating at a loss and the path to sustainable profitability depends on successful execution of the platform vision and continued enterprise customer expansion. And as always, small caps carry elevated volatility and liquidity risk. So things to be aware of. But anyways, the overall story here is that Bonsai is a focused AI powered marketing technology company with a real product portfolio, a blue chip enterprise customer base, and a clear vision for what an AI native marketing platform should look like. Deio anchors the offering and the surrounding products, video, web development, audience targeting, and now sales acceleration extend Bonsai's ability to support customers across the full marketing workflow. Anyways, if you want to learn more about Bonsai, I'll put the link to them in the description down below. Have a great rest of your day.

[00:23:01]We'll see you in the next video.