Bitcoin Bear Market Update: What's Next?

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Bitcoin could be on its way to $39,000.

[00:00:04]Now, we want to take a look at how that could play out, but I will also share with you two additional scenarios that I'm tracking after yesterday's developments. Bitcoin had its second largest liquidation event yesterday since the 10th of October, which was a massive crash. You guys might remember that um that the whole crypto sector uh crashed down on the 10th of October. Um, Bitcoin actually got by quite well back then, but a lot of altcoins got completely smashed on that day. We will all remember that. Um, we have a three-wave move down from the all-time high, from the October high into the February lows. And that was in line with our Q1 forecast. I mean, we're tracking Bitcoin here basically every single day.

[00:00:53]So, you should all be well informed if you follow here regularly, if you watch the updates regularly. I know not everybody can do it. Not everybody has the time to do it. But if you follow regularly at least then you know that the idea was that after this low in Q1 in February we were let's say supposed to get a bounce. That bounce happened.

[00:01:15]It was rather weak. Yeah. But not unusually weak. I mean a Bwave can easily just reach the 38.2 retracement which is here at 80.7K.

[00:01:26]We also defined internal targets around 82K. And I was very clear. I was very clear that this entire area around 82 to 83K is very strong resistance. On our liquidation heat map, there was a cluster. The 200 day moving average was located there. The price reached the 100% extension. And this is something I want to double down on. The 100% Fibonacci extension. a very important target around 82K. This is the same target that became relevant for the February lows. It's the same way you measure the initial decline, you go to the top of the corrective bounce and then 62K was the target to the downside.

[00:02:14]In the same way, I'm just saying because people are asking how do you, you know, how do you even get to 39K as a possible target? Well, it of course depends on, you know, the top here, right? Have we topped in the Bwave? Was this the Awave down? Is this the Bwave? And this the C-wave? That's how the bare market could play out. It fits very well our time cycle model I showed you yesterday. And our seasonalities uh for Bitcoin that we're tracking, but it's basically what we saw here, just a little larger. The initial decline from the all-time high was also a three-wave decline. And this is just a little larger ABC. And because the 100% extension was relevant back in February and back in May, it will be relevant again. [snorts] And again, I can show you the way to measure it is we take the length of the initial decline. We go to the first swing high and 39K. Yeah. So again, you go to the entire length of the Awave and then we compare that with the projected length of the C-wave 39K plus minus, you know, depending on how accurately you measure, but around 30 39 maybe 40k. So this is going to be the target as long as the market holds this top in the Bwave. If the Bwave extends, which it can still do, that target will shift higher. But I shared with you over the last few weeks that it is a bit unusual for Bitcoin to extend the Bwave in that way, at least from a time cycle point of view. Um, it is possible structurally still because the decline from the May high is a three-wave decline. So, let's now talk about the most realistic scenarios. I think we talked about the assumption we're in a bare market. That hasn't changed. I mean, that really hasn't changed. Uh, I think we've been incredibly consistent here. here. I mean, we've been tracking this together, right? Um, we defined the levels here together in the videos. And again, it's not me predicting something. I'm just showing you the data. And the data I'm showing you is either our time cycle indicators, additional indicators, or here the price structure. And the price structure itself together with Elliot wave. Look, Elliot wave counts. That's just structured price data. I'm just showing you insights about market structure. So I'm just giving you the data. So I'm just showing you essentially what the data is telling us.

[00:04:45]And there are a few scenarios we should be aware of. But the main thesis is we are in a bearish market. So the main scenario I'm tracking right now is that we have three waves down in wave A. We have three waves up in wave B. And we could be working on wave 1 to the downside of the Cwave. Wave two bounces next. Then wave 3 4 5. Why do I think this is likely at the moment? I think this is likely because for now the market um has broken down from the bare flag channel. We talked about it. Yeah, I showed you many times that in bare markets when the market did that it often led to an image in you know continuation of the decline. Um I don't see any sign of a meaningful bounce yet, but if a bounce starts, it will likely be a wave two. That's at least what I'm watching for now.

[00:05:37]I find a bounce likely. There's just no local setup for it yet, but I found find it likely because we're oversold. Daily [snorts] RSI is oversold. Historically, when that happens, at least we should get a bounce. And in the white count, that could be a wave two bounce, which would then lead to a third wave down, a four, and a five. Now, some might find the wave 1 extended. I don't I don't.

[00:06:03]And the reason is remember that the C-wave down should take us to towards 39K. That is not the final target. That's like a landmark right now. Often what we find is that the wave 1 of um such a C-wave reaches the 38.2 extension, maybe sometimes even the 61.8 extension. So we talk about 62K to 52K.

[00:06:32]It's not way extended or anything.

[00:06:34]Remember, we need we need a wave one and a wave two to set up the third wave down. So, it might very well be that this wave 1 is still unfolding. Um, we just oversold. So, a bounce in wave two can happen at some point. I'm not so focused on the micro structure right now because we know it's a C-wave and the Cwave can be an impulse or a diagonal pattern. So, the subwaves can be corrective, they can be impulsive. In my view, not very clear.

[00:07:02]So it's more about understanding what are the next support levels and resistances. Resistance is 71.7K to 78.8K.

[00:07:11]The next structural support levels to watch 65K, 62.7, and 60.2K. These are just previous swing lows. Now, because we're so oversold, I would not rule out a larger Bwave. It can still happen. It can still happen.

[00:07:28]Um, but would that really change something fundamentally? I think if anything, it will just delay the sell-off. It will extend the bare market potentially simply because the bounce that happened after the February low never adequately finished, but it would probably involve a break above the 200 day moving average. And if we get that and a break above 78.8K, it would make the blue count probably more likely. [snorts] And if we see impulsive price action to the upside from here. Yeah. But even in the blue count which is simply it's the same count just be wave B extends that's structurally very similar. Um in even in this scenario we might and I will show you that on the micro count we might see another low.

[00:08:20]That's because even in a B-wave pullback, in a larger Bwave, ABC in the B-wave pullback currently, the current pullback might need one more low because ABC and the Cwave should ideally get five waves.

[00:08:38]These are the two main scenarios. Now, I mentioned yesterday the risk is we already in the third wave decline. This is absolutely possible. So I'm I'm only going to show you the direct downside scenario where we won't get a wave two bounce here. Um just here once um you know until it gets confirmed further this would remain an alternative. The reason why I think that is at least something to consider is because the market um has sold off previously in previous bare markets quite directly whenever we broke out of such a bare flag to the downside. Just an example from 2022 we saw a decline breakdown complete breakdown like that. Yeah, there was no real wave two. it was small. So it might have happened already. At this stage it is in my opinion not at least the most likely scenario. I think a bounce is still possible. Um the reason is we are oversold very much oversold here already. So at least we should be ready for a bounce. Doesn't mean I have a setup for it. There's currently no meaningful uh one two setup or so on the local time frame. But the overall idea is look, it's possible.

[00:10:02]Yeah, it's possible. And then this was an initial one two setup to the downside. We're now in the third wave.

[00:10:11]Of course, a third wave can be very aggressive. And then in the third wave, we have a small one, two. We might get extensions in the third of a third, four, five. This is possible.

[00:10:23]In my opinion, this would need to prove itself. And I would at least find at le stage a wave two bounce more likely just from a structural point of view and the indicators. Um but essentially all of these scenarios and this is so important. All of these scenarios point towards further downside. Essentially the question is just how high is the bounce going to be? And the structure of the next bounce should tell us because if it's a wave two, it should be a three-wave bounce. So if we see a weak three-wave bounce over the coming sessions, that's our wave two. If we see an impulse 1 2 3 from five, it might be a setup for a Cwave up in wave 1 and there could be a wave two pullback. And again, we can then still focus on it because there should be a corrective pullback. Then a third wave rally four five and then this would be a completed ABC. Basically what we got here just a little larger. So this is something I would definitely consider realistic but also this would need to prove itself. We will have to see how the next bounce unfolds. We will stay close to it. If it's clearly corrective the focus will stay on further downside. Or let's say it the other way around because I like to simplify things. Yeah. Too many analysts try to make it more complex than it has to be. Let's say it like that.

[00:11:53]Until the market gives us a fivewave advance, the focus is on direct downside either in the white count or that directly bearish count in yellow I showed you. I would say let us take a look at the shorter time frame now. Yeah, the smaller time frame, the micro count. By the way, before we take a look at the micro structures, I wanted to show you one indicator which is the CVDD channel because you know people are looking for frameworks that they can use to make decisions. People are wondering where it can make sense to DCA. I'm not telling you that this is the best model. It is one of the models to watch for uh or to observe to track because in this model in every cycle before the price held the red band which is the so-called CVDD. Uh what that all is you can read through here in our terminal if you have excess.

[00:12:51]If you want access feel free to check it out. Our gold membership gives you 50% discount for the first month right now with the voucher code in the comment section and you can go through all of that if you want. But it is a bitcoin only indicator. Um it is an indicator that gives you two bands.

[00:13:11]One band is the TMM, the true market mean in yellow currently located at 78K and the CVDD at 48K. It is definitely going to be a support level to watch.

[00:13:24]Now, I told you 39K seems an ideal target, but as I said, it is like a landmark. Doesn't mean we have to get there. I'm definitely not sure about it.

[00:13:34]It is a landmark and it will have to be validated along the way. There is a lot of structure that needs to develop along the way in this bare market, but one key level is 48K because that's where the CVDD is at the moment. And some people use this channel to DCA, the dollar cost average in this channel between the true market mean and the CVDD. Yeah, because Bitcoin, let's not forget Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend. So for some people, it's helpful to have these types of frameworks because let's be honest, the problem is it's not a problem with Elliot wave, but it's a problem if you follow only one framework. Yeah. The the tendency of people is who who who who who track charts, who watch analysis videos, they often try to time the low.

[00:14:23]In reality, most people won't get the low and that has very, you know, a lot of a lot of reasons. So maybe they watch like here on YouTube an analysis video. Well, guess what? I make one video a day.

[00:14:39]What happens if t during the day after the video, Bitcoin forms are low? We see it, but there won't be an update until the next day or people won't adjust on time when there's a change in structure.

[00:14:52]So, what I want to say is not everybody is a trader who trades every single day.

[00:14:58]What can make sense for people is to use a framework. I'm just showing you that because I've seen in recent days now with Bitcoin selloff, many questions about DCA, dollar cost average, how to do it. And again, I can't give you financial advice, but one framework that many people use is this one where because Bitcoin never broke below the lower boundary, it can be reasonable to look for purchases in the green zone.

[00:15:24]And I know Michael Sailor is is selling, but he also bought the top, right? Let's not forget that. So DCA is fine if you believe in Bitcoin long-term.

[00:15:36]For me, Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend. DCA can make sense if you believe that Bitcoin will go back to new all-time highs. For many people, they struggle, okay, when and how and everything. And again, it can make sense to look for purchases in a channel like that. I'm not saying this will always hold this channel, but every bare market low found support previously at or above the CVDD and it's currently at 48K. It will change a bit. Yeah. But currently it's very stable. So I keep you updated about this as well. I'm a huge fan of looking at charts from a holistic point of view. Looking at charts from more than one perspective because every perspective gives you one thing, right? So for example, Elliot wave gives you a actually gives you a lot already, but it doesn't give you time cycles. Yeah, the Elliot wave can't give you an idea of when the market might form a low. And our time cycle indicator here that we also have in the terminal, the cycle engine, which has so far been very reliable, is telling us that Bitcoin should form a top in May or should have formed the top in May. It's just loading. Should have formed the top in May. Well, I guess we see that right now. and that in October time around October we might see a low form. So you see that here this data comes straight from price. It's a model that told us there might be a top late in May.

[00:17:04]What can I say? Again, it's not me predicting that. I'm just showing you the data. And the algorithm here told us that and it might have worked again. So the next low might form at some point in October, late September, early October.

[00:17:18]I'll keep you updated about that. But those are just two of the indicators you can access in our terminal. Uh you feel free to check it out. Again, the 50% discount is there for the first month and you can basically just check it out.

[00:17:30]So let's take a look at the shorter time frame. Okay. So, and this is the shorter time frame chart. Um, for those of you who follow the work um, on our written updates, you guys know already that the market has reached a micro support region between 63.8 and 65.7K.

[00:17:50]We're now possibly on our way to micro resistance. This is the very first resistance zone to watch. Could be for an internal wave four. I showed you in the beginning of this video that the market might need another low before we get a larger bounce. And that being said, because of how oversold the market is on various time frames, should we break above 69.7K, that's the upper boundary line of our initial micro resistance, which is the resistance zone to watch today in my opinion. Um, then I will assume we are already in a larger bounce possibly in wave two. If we are in the wave two for which I already showed you on the larger time frame the resistance zone then I would pay attention especially to the red resistance line around 74,400.

[00:18:40]This is the April low of last year. This is also where yeah I showed you that before. This is also where the price roughly found resistance in March. Found support in April. Found support in May.

[00:18:53]Found resistance in May. So, it's going to be a very very important spot. For now, the market is on its way to the first resistance zone. And if the bounce is corrective, which I'm going to track today, then one more low is very likely um in this in this structure to the downside. So, basically, I'm tracking the decline at the moment as a three-wave move in blue wave B. I can call it five waves in the white count, but it would involve an extended fifth wave, which isn't very common in crypto. So, there might be some changes to micro structures along the way. But that doesn't change that resistance is between 67,415 and $69,700.

[00:19:42]That should give you a really good idea of what's going on on the Bitcoin chart.

[00:19:46]higher time frame, lower time frame, and an additional indicator. So, hopefully that was helpful. If you're interested in additional updates, check out our membership. Join us on Discord. Join us in our terminal. Um, and I put the links into the comment section. Thanks so much. Have a great day. Bye-bye.