If You Are A Small Bitcoin Investor, You Need To WATCH This - James Lavish ( New Price Prediction)

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]I believe Bitcoin is going to double, triple, quadruple in price from here and that means that the claim for calm is >> Easy easy to quench that claim, right?

[00:00:08]>> Much higher. Like you're going to you're going to you're going to you're going to fill up those glasses and there's going to be, you know, a lot >> Plenty left over. 100%. I I don't disagree one bit. If Bitcoin doubles from here, Michael Saylor is a winner.

[00:00:23]>> Which I believe is I believe is a is an [music] a no-brainer, but that's that's where I come from on that. So, Um, but you know, I I I manage a a Bitcoin fund and so we're deep we're deep in the weeds on this stuff.

[00:00:35]>> your money where your mouth is. I love it.

[00:00:37]>> To answer your question though, end of year, [music] we're bumping up against uh or above the all-time high again and that's just I that's what I expect [music] for Bitcoin.

[00:00:48]>> The implications of the global financial system's impending collapse may be far more severe than most people realize.

[00:00:53]Macroeconomist James Lavish claims that one of the largest wealth transfers in history is about to occur due to unrelenting money printing, growing government debt, and a declining currency. Lavish thinks Bitcoin and other rare assets are best positioned to profit while typical savers continue to lose purchasing power. He contends that rather than being a speculative investment, Bitcoin is now an essential tool for safeguarding money in a world growing more unpredictable. Lavish Bitcoin is about to enter a new phase of adoption, which might result in even higher values in the coming years as more investors, institutions, and even governments start to recognize its significance. If you're intrigued by bold predictions and deep financial insights, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on notifications for more engaging content.

[00:01:34]Thank you for your support and enjoy the video.

[00:01:36]>> Just say I won't hold you to it at all, I promise.

[00:01:39]>> I think that we resolve the war um issue um and that that Trump gets his uh his face-saving victory, whatever that may be.

[00:01:48]Um and I happen to believe that we're not going to get crash. [music] You know, this K-shaped economy is real and it's just going to keep going for a while. Um I don't know how long, but [music] I I think we haven't, you know, I don't I'm not a a one of those guys who's calling for the market to just fall apart [music] here.

[00:02:04]So, um, so and caveat, even if it did, we know what happens. There's the the the Fed and the Treasury are absolutely trapped by Congress. They have no [music] choice but to print more money. It's just a it's an obvious outcome. You know, they printed $5 trillion in '21 to '23, they're going to print a multiple [music] of that next time around. If we have a black swan, which uh, you know, I mean, I've been in this business for 30 years >> [music] >> and I've seen I think seven 100-year events, you know, so there's another one coming at some point. I don't know when.

[00:02:38]When it does, they're going to print massive amounts of money. And what's going to benefit from that?

[00:02:42]>> [music] >> Assets that can't be uh, you know, debased. Things like gold, silver, Bitcoin, like they're going to they're going to just absolutely rip. And of course, stocks will too. [music] You know, companies that can't just be copied, you know, things things like the the Mag 7 and then when Anthropic and ChatGPT [music] OpenAI and all those come to market and SpaceX, they'll they'll benefit from the money printing.

[00:03:05]Meaning, just to make this absolutely abundantly clear that [music] they're going to reflect a mirror image of what has been debased against it.

[00:03:15]That's what's happening and that will happen.

[00:03:17]>> [music] >> All right, so to answer your question though, end of year, we're bumping up against or above the [music] all-time high again. And that's just I that's what I expect for Bitcoin.

[00:03:28]>> James, I'd love to get your response to that and also the idea that is is [music] Saylor potentially a risk holding people back?

[00:03:34]>> Yeah. Um, I think it Saylor's accumulation has been I think that does give some institutional investors [music] pause for sure.

[00:03:44]Uh, but let's let's pull apart a bunch of threads here. So, [music] number one, um, you know, Bitcoin's been seen as a risk asset for [music] um, years here, you know, it's been like the the tip of the risk spear, so to speak, for a while.

[00:04:01]>> [music] >> You could argue that it's it's broken out from that and it's not really correlated to anything, but the reality is it does move around with the NASDAQ quite a bit.

[00:04:11]And so this last drawdown from all-time highs down to [music] $60,000 or 62, whatever it was, when it touched bottom here, um this [music] last go around has been, you know, it it it happened all before the the the war and and then the drawdown again in in gold and silver. So it's kind of like this hot ball of money is moving around between assets [music] and Bitcoin had had benefit from it. I think it got ahead of itself, but then >> [music] >> again the you had the same thing with gold and silver. So it does that hot ball of money does move around. It's [music] definitely in in the AI names now. But as far as Saylor's concerned, [music] you know, I I too have worked on his balance sheet quite a bit and I'm not nearly as concerned about it with as as Doomburg is and probably because I have a higher degree of confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset. That's that's that's likely the underpinning difference here is that I just have a much higher conviction in [music] Bitcoin as a as an asset as long-term store value. Um you know, the the big convert he's got coming up. The next convert he's got coming up is in 2028 for a billion dollars. I mean, that's that's nothing. It's 1 billion out of the 66 [music] he's 66 billion dollars of Bitcoin he's got on his balance sheet. At the end of the call, I was actually on the call as one of the analysts asking questions [music] and and I asked him, I said, "Look, you're talking about the fact that you might sell Bitcoin.

[00:05:42]What do you think is the And we've got this new perpetual preferred >> [music] >> instrument that that has been wildly successful here.

[00:05:52]What is the optimal structure of your balance sheet? And he answered >> [music] >> uh you know and would you be you would you be selling off and and retiring a bunch of this debt and some of these other preferreds that are just not the core focus cuz the core focus right now is clearly stretch STRC and MSTR [music] the underlying common.

[00:06:13]And his answer was he's not going to retire the press cuz he he spent like a billion dollars bringing those to market. He's he's going [music] to retain that optionality. That makes sense. He doesn't have to retire them, you know, there's no reason for them for him to. He doesn't have to pay them off.

[00:06:27]But the converts he wants to retire and he said [music] he he wants to retire those in time and so and he's got and they're and they're putting plans around that. So you've got a billion dollars that comes due in 2028.

[00:06:42]That's that's a short putt here in my [music] opinion. And then the same thing in 2029 you've got three billion dollars. That's his big one. Is he going to refinance that? No, he's going to pay that down.

[00:06:53]>> [music] >> So you've he's got years to deal with that. And he's got years to build up the cash reserve to deal with it or just start retiring them you know piece by piece. So I'm not as concerned about that at all. [music] Do I think he would startle the market by selling a bunch of Bitcoin in order to do those things? Well, think about it. It's accretive [music] to the underlying shareholders when you're pulling down the enterprise value of the company. And so that's that's a good thing. The second thing is it gets them closer to having a an actual rating that he can point to for the S&P inclusion [music] cuz he's big enough. It's just the S&P is basically the credit agencies. They just consider Bitcoin [music] they don't consider it an asset. They they basically market to zero. So that that doesn't help him. So, [music] but that gets him closer to that uh to that kind of hurdle he's got to get over. And so, um I am um I'm much more uh confident in in his structure.

[00:07:56]>> The Bitcoin strategy of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy is a central topic of discussion. The company's large Bitcoin holdings and debt usage, according to critics, make it dangerous and susceptible to changes in the market.

[00:08:06]James Lavish, on the other hand, has a different perspective. a lot of people are misinterpreting the approach. Lavish claims that Bitcoin's potential for long-term growth is crucial. The company's debt will be lot simpler to handle if Bitcoin's value keeps rising dramatically over time. In that case, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin assets might increase far more quickly than its liabilities, strengthening rather than weakening the balance sheet. Please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications for future Bitcoin, macroeconomic, and digital asset content before we go any further. Now, let's get into his powerful predictions.

[00:08:39]>> So, if Bitcoin just appreciates 2% on average over the course of, you know, then say let's call it the next 10 years, [music] then he doesn't have to sell a Bitcoin to service that debt. Now, he could sell some of the Bitcoin to take down some of the converts. He could use some of the strike uh the stretch, sorry, [music] cells of stretch to pay down some of the converts. And all of that is it is accretive to the common underlying. So, that's why you would own the common is that you're trusting that you're trusting Now, you do have to trust Number one, you have to have high confidence and high conviction in Bitcoin. If you don't have high conviction in Bitcoin, why are you owning MicroStrategy? You shouldn't. Um but if you do, then you're then you have high conviction [music] that this asset's going to appreciate more than 2% a year, and you're you're you're going to get more Bitcoin >> [music] >> Lots of ways to own Bitcoin.

[00:09:32]>> I started my career as a as an arbitrageur. Then we did I did a lot of debt and distressed investing. I mean God, we we owned TWA [music] before the plane crash in 1990, what was it? 95 in Long Island.

[00:09:45]I mean, [music] you know, um 97 was it?

[00:09:47]God, it was awful. And so, um you all you care about is claims. You claims on claims, claims, claims, that's all you care about. And that's true. And it's when you're a debt investor, you don't care about anything but what are the claims, where am I on the capital stack?

[00:10:01]>> And what's the liquidation value?

[00:10:02]>> And what's the liquidation value? So, it's a And there And that's what it comes down to. Is you if you believe in Bitcoin, you believe that, um you know, this is going to appreciate, you're getting more Bitcoin per share underlying on this thing. Is it ever going to be liquidated? I sure hope not.

[00:10:18]Um but I'm not worried about that [music] in particular. And so, that's kind of the play. And so, um is it something that Look, I it's just like you said, it's a different it's a it's a little bit of a difference in in philosophy and um but we both understand it and we come from it from from kind of from different areas. I can see from this point and I do that work >> [music] >> purposefully, so I understand it fully as an investor. At the end of the call, when I asked him what the opt optimal balance sheet looked like, he basically said, "No converts.

[00:10:53]Stretch Stretch is the only is the only preferred uh the perpetual preferred and common. That's it. That's the That's the optimal balance sheet." And so, you know, it's kind of where he's working toward, >> [music] >> which is only better for common to get rid of the uh to get rid of the converts, as you said. And I and I see the path from to do that and I I expect [music] it to happen.

[00:11:12]>> Yeah. Um particularly, I think the preferred we kind of covered in terms of where it is in the stack. Could you outline what the converts are uh and how that might apply to what's going forward? And then additionally, just teasing it out a little bit, projected We're guessing into the future. Do you think they're going to take the the equity or they going to stay with the with the bond position?

[00:11:27]>> Um the Oh, the converts? Well, I mean, look, it it it depends on which convert you're talking about. Some of them are in the money, you know, they'll just convert over to equity for sure.

[00:11:36]>> [music] >> Um but uh they they've got you know, they've got a total of eight billion 8.2 billion dollars of converts um and they [music] and they mature anywhere from 28 to 32. Okay, so let's just talk about capital structure. So, um in a in a in a company, you you know, you've got the claims on assets like we've been talking about. And so, for the listeners, the highest claim on asset is basically um you know, it's it's [music] it's it's pretty much bank debt, you know, if you get a line of credit with a bank, you're you got to pay that back before you're [music] paying anything. And then you've got senior secured, you know, senior subordinate, um >> [music] >> sub- subordinate unsecured, and then you just go down the ladder. Anything that's a bond is up there, and [music] if it's secured, that means that bond has a secure on a certain asset. It could be the the buildings, it could be, you know, [music] um it could be some of the the technology or patents, whatever it is that it it's secured to something.

[00:12:39]And you have claims on those assets.

[00:12:40]When you have a liquidation, you're going to bank, you know, you go through a chapter 7 bankruptcy where you're just going to liquidate it all and give um the holders of everything >> [music] >> it goes all the way down the line. You got to pay everybody off all the way down. It's going down to the converts, you know, all those bonds down to the converts, then the preferreds, and then the common. And typically the the common is typically going to get a few pennies on a dollar if you have a bankruptcy, there's not going to be anything left for them. So, that's just kind of the way it works. Um if you liquidated the company now, there would be plenty of of uh claim for the the common, but they're not going to do that. So, >> James Lavish expresses his ongoing faith in Michael Saylor's Bitcoin approach. He knows how corporate debt operates and why some people are concerned about MicroStrategy's balance sheet because of his background as a debt investor. But the value of Bitcoin keeps rising, he thinks those worries become considerably less significant. According to him, the company's assets will increase far more quickly than its liabilities if Bitcoin doubles, triples, or quadruples over time, making the approach a huge success for shareholders. Lavish also discusses the economics, stating that individuals now have two distinct experiences. While many wage earners are struggling with rising prices and diminished purchasing power, those who own assets like stocks, real estate, or Bitcoin have seen their wealth increase. This contributes to the explanation of why many customers continue to experience financial strain even when the stock market reaches new heights. He concludes by justifying Bitcoin mining, claiming that miners frequently employ inexpensive or underutilized electricity that would otherwise be wasted. Overall, Lavish's message is that Bitcoin is one of the strongest long-term investments, and he believes those who own rare assets will continue to benefit as inflation and currency debasement weaken the value of money over time. Remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable notifications if you thought his viewpoint was helpful so you don't miss any updates. We'd love to know what you think about the future of cryptocurrency markets, so please share your ideas in the comments section. We appreciate your time and hope to see you in the next video.