Corked Stats MLB LIVE 6/18: Game-By-Game Board Breakdown

[00:00:00][music] [music] [music] Heat. Hey. Hey. Hey.

[00:00:24][music] Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends. It's Corkstats, the fastest freaking show in MLB.

[00:00:37]Absolutely. Anyway, with your homeboy, yo, Big Johnny start up in the chair as always. You know it. Follow me on Twitter, John Flow, sharpening a razor.

[00:00:46]Same handle over on Substack where $2 a week, get you five pounds of [ __ ] in a two pound box. Baseballs version 300.

[00:00:53]Give the book nothing. Take from that [ __ ] everything they say man is baby.

[00:00:58]>> THIS IS SP. [screaming] >> YOU'RE damn right it is. Burning the candle on both ends. NFL MLB stock just rocking around the clock. Trust me, I have one hairy eyeball on fantasy football. I've been drafting around the clock when I'm not doing this [ __ ] Yesterday kind of sucked. Pittsburgh caught us back up. They had the nice win. We kind of called that one. Gavin Williams sucked yesterday. What the [ __ ] What the [ __ ] Then of course then of course the Guardians that offense sucks, but you're down five. You I already counted as a loss. They they tickled the taint, right? They tickled the taint. Schnean hits a [ __ ] grand slam to bring him within one. All of a sudden Gavin Williams on the bump up one run in the fourth, whatever it was. You got a chance at winning that. Well, we all know how that was going to go. I mean, whatever. You can't [ __ ] and you can't moan it. I'm just not on that part of the bell curve. I'm not that person that turns it around late. That's not us. We're the one that blows the late game. We We have to be very very very very good if we were to cash those checks. You know what I'm saying? I never expect to [ __ ] turn around in Boston. Oh. Oh my Oh my god. I forgot.

[00:02:09]Oh, I forgot about Boston. Oh, I forgot about Boston. Where did that end up? I don't even know. 0 for 12 runners in scoring position. 13 stranded. Oh my gosh. They out hit the [ __ ] Jays and they just every inning lead off guy on second, lead off guy in third, second and third no out, second and third one out, bases loaded, went out and it was just whoop whoop. Then I noticed also before we get into it, we got a short slate today. Anyway, whoever is in charge of the [ __ ] Boston challenges needs to give up the button. They were in huge spots. ONE OF THOSE BASES LOADED SPOTS, HE JUST TOOK A [ __ ] STRIKE. THAT WAS AWFUL. THEN THERE WAS A COLD STRIKE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE. I mean, like legit. Really?

[00:02:51]Actually, that one got flipped. I'm sorry. That one got flipped. But they did take some bad ones. Anyway, I'm just I'm being a [ __ ] baby today. Enough of that [ __ ] More of this. [music] Best part of waking up. Pitching sheets in the mug. Nine games today. We got four in the daytime, five at the night time. My favorite tweet is my own right now recently and it's I win daytime MLB games by not betting them. That's how I answer. I shouldn't [ __ ] I shouldn't exaggerate. You know, we've had strong weekends. I something about these midweek getaway days. I've always had uh [ __ ] thing out for me. Anyway, first up, let's go Metsco throwing Shawn Maniah out there. Plus 104 dog on the road down in Broad Street to face Aaron Nola in the fighting Phils. Nola is a 126 favorite at the crib.

[00:03:48]I mean, talk about a rough season. Nola, I think I believe more in the underpinning stuff when you look at the 586 RA and the 147 whip, which is obviously shite. Maniah not too far behind. 478 RA 135 whip. though. When it comes to Mania, I guess maybe he's used to it of all people, having the workload [ __ ] jerked around. I've never been a fan of that. I think he's a starter.

[00:04:12]Also, he had that like ridiculous season, right? Didn't he have like a great season?

[00:04:17]Oh, okay. It was for the Mets. It was the first season with the Mets, right?

[00:04:20]You mean 32 starts. He was phenomenal.

[00:04:22]And you think that would have been enough to, you know, earn you some grace after what was admittedly a bad season last year. All right, let me just check it out. And I got the game log here now.

[00:04:33]He is coming off a regular start on regular rest. We like that. And he shoved the Braves. Went six, gave up two, one earned, no walk, sixks, which is pretty awesome. He hasn't given up more than two runs. Gez, since the [ __ ] end of April. So Maniah actually doesn't look that bad on the spreadsheet. The earlier stuff was really kind of rough. So I bet you the last 30 for Maniah is probably pretty strong, but he's been phenomenal last 30. I don't know how I missed that. 291 RA with a sub one whip 264 expected three flat Sierra 22 KBB whoever asked me to put the expected last 30 up also thanks I mean that's how this [ __ ] happens literally don't be like afraid or shamed or you're not a [ __ ] bother if you're a paid sub I always say this you're not a [ __ ] bother you're a priority there's a difference if there's something that you we can add that you think will help yo hit me up and ask me I will tell you honestly flat out if I can add it or Someone asked about that.

[00:05:31]I went and looked. I said, "Shit, I got that. No problem." The next [ __ ] day, it's up and it's up for good. That's how it works from here. Door swings [ __ ] both ways, yo. You know how you know how I do.

[00:05:42]So, man, Mania's been really good and probably want to give him the nod today over Nola, who I mentioned has been kind of ass.

[00:05:52]Now, I did mention the disciplinary stuff better than Maniah, though.

[00:05:55]Maniah's really had the control, which we love. And no actually had his breaking stuff getting over which is normally a bit a big hangup for him keeping the ball down. What's always the problem is the four seamer is not good enough and he misses too much. That's where all those home runs come from. 13 ding-dongs 1.7 homer nine. I may be a little bit worried about pitching Nola in his building. Yeah, he's a 62 RA at home. 576 RA last 30 days though the indicator significantly stronger than that. Man, I'm probably going with the edge to Maniah on the bump. Phillies versus lefties have really been weak.

[00:06:29]Their best hitters are all left-handed.

[00:06:30]And while listen, Schwarber and Harper can, you know, like they'll hit lefties a little bit. The rest of the team, they don't have those power righties. It's like a little bit of Treya Turner and after that, you don't get a lot of just about anything. Mets versus righties last two weeks hasn't been great that they are improving, right? We're making zone contact, hitting the ball hard, getting that XCON up over that 375 mark, which we like, man. Bpin's probably a wash. Mets a little bit better last two weeks, but the Phillies not to be thrown away either.

[00:07:01]You know, again, I forgot to mention, we got the heat emoji. We got the wind blowing out emoji. I'd be under on a regular day cuz I feel like this might have been nine on a regular day. Maybe it would have been eight and a half with all the juicing. I'm still under that nine and a half. Man, I hate tempting this weather and [ __ ] We've been speaking about that. the parabolic curve how once you get the combination of heat plus wind everything that's up tends to go out you know yeah mania's been up in the air and no's been up in the air hard to go under but again if I'm just you know I'm at that impass of I've been speaking about wanting to or needing to show confidence in your work but also being nervous around these damn [ __ ] uh weather games. So that nine and a half still feels a little bit too high.

[00:08:02]Not sure I'm going to challenge it on the live ticket.

[00:08:07]Next up, Sean Burke on the bump for the pale hose. They're 130 dogs down in New York to face Ryan Lovely Weathers and the Jankees. Bad guys minus 157. Going to be hot. Wind blowing out also. We know how that plays up in New York. Now, this is like exactly what I was talking about, but playing out in real time. So, two days ago, I said, "No, let's challenge it." It was the last Weathers game, so it was it had to be five days ago if Weathers was pitching. We were on the under, hot, wind out, went poorly.

[00:08:40]Davis Martin uh got [ __ ] on. Maybe it wasn't. Oh, no, no, that was another one that we also lost a bit of other ones.

[00:08:49]because that was when Judge first went down. So, I've gotten burned on Yankee unders a couple times. So, you know, I want to be a little bit careful. But then also, we saw it yesterday where the handicap was almost identical. I think we're going to be under. What ends up happening? Couple fly balls. They're all going out. So, be weary, you know, of that. And even, you know, with the double juice here, I'm still a little bit a little bit under and maybe I'm not going far enough. Yo, if you if you saw how much I was moving the [ __ ] model for this [ __ ] you understand why I'm like the way I am about these games, you know, and I'm getting I'm very transparent. Maybe that's the signal.

[00:09:29]I'm like, I'm doing like the Tully thing from [ __ ] Sesame Street. The [ __ ] sky is full. I'm [ __ ] bugging the hell out. Maybe these are like, that's it. You know, that's it. You got to you got enough signals where you're shaking in the chair. You know, it's not double digit to push, right? It's double digit to win. Both of these games are at nine and a half and not 10. So maybe there's a little bit of a signal to go for it. Burke has been good but not great. 415 Ray 126 whip. Again, it's mad. We've seen him be good for short stretches. So there are good games in there, but it's been very mad. He doesn't get swings and misses and that's always going to hurt you versus the Yankees. pitching through a very high zone contact going to hurt you against the Yankees plus lots of fly balls which is going to hurt you not just versus the Yankees but in this environment today little hard to get behind Burke as much as I know a lot of sharp people uh like the White Sox and with good reason they've been [ __ ] good Burke has also pitched pretty well on the road this year but the last 30 stuff again mixed you got to be worried about the weather environment that's everything today weathers I think has been much better than the RA 436 RA but a 117 whip again the Sierra 344 before for an expected rate just north of four four and a quarter. The disciplinary stuff is pretty strong. You'd like to see more.

[00:10:40]He doesn't induce any chases which is a little bit weird. Not that he's ever been great with it, but you expect a little bit more. But still getting the 20 KBB north of 30 CSW, 43 ground ball.

[00:10:50]You know, you like to see that the home runs have been the worst part. 18 and a half homer to fly ball on just a regular 40. You know, 45 ball, 31 hard hit fanraphs is not that crazy. The barrels have all gone out. Now, barrels are bad, but I I think Weather's people are a little they're punishing him a little bit too much. Hopefully I frame that properly without sounding like a [ __ ] damn Yankee homer. See a 644 ERA last 30, but the Sierra just south of four with a 15 KBB. Those are not terrible.

[00:11:19]And he's been much better at home. I think the Yankees win this one. Like, am I Oh, look at me. I picked a favorite.

[00:11:26]You know what I'm saying? Um, White Sox versus Lefties hasn't been a great split, right? That's something that we've mentioned. Now, when the L30 goes against my prior, I like to check the full season. And so, the full season for the White Sox has been significantly better. And then you find yourself at the impass of is this a young team that was sun running a little bit and going to regress negatively or is what we're seeing now maybe a blip and they're going to be fine. My answer is generally a shade of gray because I'm a [ __ ] and it's somewhere in the middle and it's then I think I'm defaulting to pitcher quality, right? Where you see the mixed bag weathers I think is good, right? And the White Socks have swung and miss a lot against lefties and lost in the zone leading to strikeouts. I think that's where there's gains. So, I think that's where I'm at. Yankees have really hit and this looks like an Aaron Judge lineup. It, you know, again, you'll get swing and miss and you get some losing in the zone, but they're being very patient. It's turning into tons of walks and the power stuff is strong. Yankees are tied for third in home runs verse righties last two weeks. I mean, 17 dongs in 280 played appearances is a [ __ ] monster power output, right? You could almost multiply that by three to get yourself to a big full season and you know, you're it's a monster output there. Yankees bullpin has been the significantly better squad here. I think I got like Yankees to cover actually.

[00:12:58]model. I'm right on the edge.

[00:13:02]But yeah, I think we're getting regression for whether I think his style of pitching is better than the socks.

[00:13:09]And I think getting this Yankee team who's looking really [ __ ] good with the three-phase edge at plus 125 for the cover. I could [ __ ] m on that. Next up, Landon Rupaloop. You could come too. Bring your green hat. He's on the bump for the Jagantes. San Francisco treats are plus 120 dogs down in Atlanta to face Martin Perez in the dirty dirty minus 143 for the home squad. Remember Akunia out.

[00:13:35]They said it's going to be a really long time. Just as I was bitching about Austin Riley, I saw this tweet making the rounds about how his last couple of batted balls have been north of 100 miles an hour. I MEAN, I [ __ ] hope so. I can't believe it. One of my bigger L's, man. Gotta take the big fat [ __ ] L. Austin Riley. You know, sometimes there's a really sharp piece of analysis that's also very kind of simple in its essence, and it's that you're defaulting to bigger samples.

[00:14:04]Austin Riley is a good hitter. He's a good hitter. Austin Riley is a good hitter, and he's got fantastic power metrics without crazy swing and miss, disciplinary [ __ ] He's shown the improvement in those metrics, better chase with good contact, and you're like, why wouldn't he be [ __ ] good?

[00:14:20]and you've seen monster seasons from him in a good lineup, decent place to hit.

[00:14:25]It's just been [ __ ] disgracefully bad. So, uh, Braves offense needs to get dinged, right? Also, uh, Michael Harris left that game. They said he's okay, but I don't think there's any chance you see him today. I'm almost I'm almost expecting to Thursday maybe have him out to the weekend, right? So if you're setting like fantasy lineups NFBC on Friday, he's out. Okay, so let's go. Rupal loop Martine Perez. I could just tell you off rip, I like the Giants F5. I mean, this is like what we're waiting for when our pitches are on the bump. So RP has a 424 ERA and a 129 whip. I mean, man, I better than that. I guess the last [ __ ] I guess the last 30 days is probably much worse than I'm expected. So I'm going to fast forward to the last 30. Wow, it's been really gross. And I didn't even expect it. Now, I'm going to use that trick I was talking about yesterday where you go in this picture cell with his name, you go over to Stackcast, put the name in the box. I mean, if I I can't tell you how fast it is because their search bar is slow and it's not even accurate sometimes. You're scrolling. This is like bam. It's [ __ ] awesome. It really makes the tool a little bit easier to use. I'm going to look for a degradation in VO intra season right within this year to try and figure out what just what the [ __ ] is going on.

[00:15:51]Let's see. No, VO is fine. The VO on the 4C was actually its highest in his last start.

[00:16:03]Let's jump out and see if there's been like a change in Arsenal.

[00:16:10]No, not really. You know, he mixes up the force and the sinker as uh Oh, no.

[00:16:16]Sorry. That's velocity. My mistake. Hold on. I got to back it up. My mistake.

[00:16:22]No, it's basically sinker and curve first. I knew there was a I knew there was a mistake there. And maybe that's it where he's throwing more sinkers. And I'd like to see him go back to the curveball first approach.

[00:16:40]You know, that pitch is [ __ ] filthy.

[00:16:42]The curve ball on RP is a legit money pitch, man. Like I said, now it's down to the secondary. 207 xlug, 37 whiff.

[00:16:50]Then he goes to the change up, which we love, is an out pitch to lefties. 329 Xug, 32 whiff, 29 whiff on the cutter with a 374x lug. This is fine. The sinker has just been kind of getting hit hard and he's been a little bit unlucky.

[00:17:03]Also, the slug is like 50 points higher than the X slug. Yeah, I I think I'm still buying in the in the roof stuff. I think he's been good. He's also been better on the road. Not like San Fran is a real necessarily tough place to pitch.

[00:17:14]So, I think I'm going to get back with the Rupaloop. I think I'm okay with that. You know, he's pounding the lower third, keeping the ball down, suppressing hard contact. Only four home runs through 74 and a third. Meanwhile, Martin Perez is the owner of the How the [ __ ] Do You Keep Getting Away with this award? Huh? Yeah, I know. No [ __ ] 290 RA and a 105 whip for [ __ ] Martin Perez. What the [ __ ] man? If you need an argument on how variant [ __ ] baseball is, you have no idea, man. 402 expected 414 Sierra. Now, granted, I don't like to misframe. If it's good for the goose, it's good for the gander. My indicator, which I believe in the most, which you get, it's proprietary. It's exclusive. No one else gets this [ __ ] It's yours for the same [ __ ] whatever $167 a week if you sign up for the [ __ ] season. Honestly, just trying to bring you all the [ __ ] value I can.

[00:18:03]It's giving me a [ __ ] elbow in my fat belly. You know that my fat underc carriage like that little nudge like, "Hey, big man. Uh, maybe we want to pump the brakes." Perez has been a little bit better than that. Then I would counter that person nudging my big belly and saying, "Dude, 12 KBB, nine spinning strike, 38 ball, 30 chase. How the [ __ ] is he doing this?" Like legit. And the answer is very simple. 80 left on base and a 230 Bab. Those are not the things we believe in. Even the 10 homer fly ball is probably a little bit low for my liking. He's been death to lefties as expected. But he's gotten hit by righties. He's been so good at [ __ ] home. Again, 167 home year. That has to regress. We got to go for the Giants.

[00:18:46]Plus, the offense has been certainly getting up off the mat. Oh yes, Giants offense has been [ __ ] awesome lately.

[00:18:52]I was screaming from the rooftops that the Giants were going to be good. Of course, we never know when these teams start bad. Everybody just gets the [ __ ] shovels and starts burying these [ __ ] guys. Matt Chapman, and I know I just did this as a negative for Austin Riley. So, like I guess that maybe this is the best timing, but Matt Chapman, good hitter. Raphael De, good hitter.

[00:19:16]Will Thomas, good hitter. These guys are [ __ ] good hitters. And Bryce Eldridge is a [ __ ] really good hitter. I'm writing him up. He'll be going to come up in my piece for the Athletic coming out tomorrow morning. Yo, elite elite power sub like elite elite like show Otani and like [ __ ] Kyle Schwarber like the guys at the front end of the [ __ ] bell curve. So if you haven't added Eldridge, you're in a smaller kind of wreck league where he still might not be available. He's a massive [ __ ] ad.

[00:19:44]So you have the Giants here. You It's okay to back the Giants now. They're one of the better left-hand hitting teams in the league. You got to go after [ __ ] Martin Perez if it's ever the damn was ever going to collapse. It was going to be today, right? It's power 150 ISO, tons of line drives, 403 XCON.

[00:20:00]Meanwhile, the Braves offense has really been unimpressive verse righty's last two weeks batting 207. They've got to be bottom three in extra base hits, 530 OPS, just 6% walk, 282 xa implies like three and a quarter run. So, the Braves have been [ __ ] The Giants are hitting.

[00:20:16]I think this is a mispric. The Braves, however, have the significantly better bullpen and we know Perez can kind of go distance. So, I think we want to keep it short. We're looking we're looking to win this one. One zip, 2-1. Like, that's it, right? You know what I mean? We're not trying to get [ __ ] fancy here. I will check the first five price on the run line. Nah, just take the 110 on the F5. Let's keep this [ __ ] [ __ ] going.

[00:20:41]All right, we're kind of flowing a little bit today. Then again, after we get through the nighttime stuff, you know, commuter crowd always on the front of my mind. We'll circle back for a little daytime parlay. Know what I mean?

[00:20:53]A jelly bean.

[00:20:57]Next up, this was the biggest mispric on the board for me as far as price goes, though. Maybe before I open my [ __ ] mouth, I should have looked to make sure it was still out there. So, yeah. Although, okay, it was the nine that I was referring to being under on the nine. Liberator going for the Cardinals minus 105 against Noah Cameron going for the Royals minus 115. So, right off the bat, Cameron's been [ __ ] awesome. He should be a heavier favorite. I'm also surprised to see money coming in on Cameron. Now, Libator might be improving also. I feel like I feel like I was I hate that dude the [ __ ] look I was watching him and so you know, do you know Ball? I watch Ball. Yeah, he's been much better. 330 Sierra 212 KBB last 30 for Libertore though Cameron's been like shoving you know.78 whip 240 expected 29 Sierra 23 KBB last 30 days we know Cameron has some [ __ ] studiness in him so right off rip I think the Cardinals are the better team here though the I'm sorry the Royals are better team with camera going at least F5 cuz the bullpin terrifies me, right? I'm pretty sure that plays out. Casey Bulpin is sticky, sweaty, crusty anus. It's the worst summer fair on an August day. You know, the worst.

[00:22:21]So, I still think I like Casey F5, but I got to be honest, right? And this is something I've been talking about and I'm trying to [ __ ] put into practice.

[00:22:31]I don't even know if there ever was an F5 U5, but there's a fairly priced 4.5 and that's the play we want. In the past, in the past, I would have bet the Royals here. I still think they get it done, but because we're dealing in the realm of [ __ ] little decimal points, right?

[00:22:51]R mean outcomes and decimal points on a highly variant game in a small sample, right? like a [ __ ] quant nightmare.

[00:23:01]A lot of times I'm realizing when I take those losses, they end up way under. The guy I It's usually not like, "Oh man, the um I like Kansas City to win in this scenario and Cameron goes out and gets [ __ ] shacked." It's he'll go out and give up one or two. We'll only get one because again, we don't have an offense we really believe in. Right? have been talking about how to line up the matrix mentally and then have that lead to our execution, right? The decision point of full game and F5 and totals verse money launch. So again, not to derail too hard, but that is one of the places I've been trying to [ __ ] hone my own game a little bit. Um, so yeah, I got Casey getting to St. Louis and like I'm not even I'm not buying that. Again, you can see the stuff with Libertore is ugly. I flip back to the pitching stuff. It's been gross. 12 KBB, 26 CSW. But it's the same thing for Cameron. And it goes to show you how, you know, pitchers go through these waves similar. Hold on, I got to do more big nose. Similar to hitters and teams, right? Pitchers are also go through waves, but because uh pitching is more susceptible to adjustment, right? Well put. arm angle, place on the rubber. I I mean arsenal grip. It's like [ __ ] sequencing. It's like it is that's why I love it so much, right? It's it's it's won't it won't ever be solved. It can't be solved. It's too variant to be solved. This is why we love it, right? We try and mix the art with the science while we're learning and having some fun, maybe making a couple bucks trying to, you know, do this impossible [ __ ] task.

[00:24:46]But I think that's maybe what we've seen from Litor.

[00:24:51]You know what's funny? I'm gonna actually I'm going to table that for right now. I'm going to circle back to that because I actually need a pitcher to write up for the Athletic like the headliner. And I've been saying I'm not going to repeat write up guys. So, you know, we're whatever [ __ ] 12 weeks into the season or whatever the [ __ ] we are. You know, you're right. wrote up 12 second a baseman and 12 short stops and 12 starters like you're burning out cuz a lot of guys are owned and you're you know guys are getting hurt faster than they're getting [ __ ] replaced. So uh I'm going to mark Litor maybe Cameron's even another op option for right guys were going to be looking for a change.

[00:25:29]So yeah I'm under I'm under even probably under the [ __ ] full game to be honest like can we find the nine?

[00:25:38]I don't know. I'm going to look. So, I'm going to just mark it with I'm going to mark with a U for right now and hop on like Bet Stamp or one of those [ __ ] uh shopping apps because obviously as a cheap [ __ ] it would kill me to go under a nine when there's like a affordable eight and a half, right? I'm sorry.

[00:26:00]Scratch like Willy Wonka. Scratch that.

[00:26:02]Reverse it. Right. Would kill me to go under an eight and a half when there was an affordable nine. There she goes. All right, last one on the nighttime. I got José Seraniano for the Angels. He came off the board, so I don't want to sink too far into that. I have a feeling maybe we won't see him. MGM just posted him. [ __ ] I don't know.

[00:26:26]All right, so maybe Soraniano is going for the Angels plus 113 Dog in Sacramento to face Gaze Jump in the A's minus 136 for jump. I think Jump is actually good. So I think Gage jump hash good at pitching Soraniano man he's a thrill a minute right because he's a his own feeder right and it's like ball and play ball and play ball and play or walk also an issue I'm sorry you know what let me back it up the zone contact not as bad as I thought for Sorano but the ball and walk rates certainly are with the poor first strike rate which just makes for the worst combination right you're you're you're a kind of a ground baller Now granted, the swing and miss is starting to pop. So I don't want to be throwing dirt on this guy either, but he's very heavily reliant on Bab, right? So Sorano's got the great RA. The Bab is not great, but you also get [ __ ] blowups right here. Let me check it out. Cuz I think lately it's actually been terrible. And what we're seeing even on the good side are just residuals of a ridiculous start to the season. The last 30 not as bad as I thought, but a 417 expected 467 Sierra and a single digit KBB is far from great. Like a guy that you want to be backing that looked like a [ __ ] breakout to start the year. I mean, he was so good. From opening day till my birthday, uh, Fang started to do this cool like grouping thing now. He had a 24 RA. He gave up one earn run through 37 and 2/3, right?

[00:27:59]So that'll right that that'll slam your statistics. But after that it's not been gross, but the walks are crazy going back 22741 and six. So there were just days where his control is just absolutely terrible.

[00:28:13]And I worry in Sacramento would be one of those days, right? You're worried about the weather. You're worried about the [ __ ] wind blowing out. Every day here it's not 88, but it is like in the 80s and the wind's blowing out. The ball is [ __ ] flying out there. Another five and a half and 10 total. I don't know how you could back Soriano or the Angels. You know, we're always kind of hunting for dogs. I'm worried a little bit because it's again, it's not like Sorano's been ass. You don't You can't You can't start pushing gas can yet.

[00:28:42]We're not at that point. Going back to earn runs 0 4 2 3 2 6 and two and two, five and three, four and two and two, six and four, five and 0. like, yeah, it's not great, but this isn't like, okay, I'm going to challenge him in the joke ballpark. I'm still trying to be a little bit um, you know, reticent there or whatever.

[00:29:04]All right, so that'll do it for all the early stuff. You want to do a quick uh skyrockets and flight little [ __ ] afternoon delight? What do you say, party people? COME ON.

[00:29:18]>> WHAT IS YOUR PROFESSION? [screaming] ALL RIGHT, I'LL TAKE THAT as a [ __ ] resounding yes. Trey, Damacho Man, your Savage on the bump for the Bluebirds.

[00:29:31]They have a tax pen with the wind blowing out doubly, right? So, it's like 20 miles an hour blowing out in Boston to face Sunny Gray and the Red Sox again. Funny to have this wind and only have an eight and a half total and I'm still like so far under. I almost have to double check that I I imported properly.

[00:29:50]Uh, one second. 330. Yeah, I I do. I just don't I just don't have it. I've got I like really like both of these guys. I really like both of these guys.

[00:30:00]And I've got this one 43. The only way I've got this one going over is 44, you know, pushed to the nine.

[00:30:08]So, I don't know. I'm off these games.

[00:30:10]I'm so [ __ ] scared. I'm afraid. First time my life. I'm afraid. Now, Boston's not really like a crazy, you know, pinball machine.

[00:30:20]But [ __ ] man. I I don't know. I wish I had more. It makes me feel like I feel bad now. Guess what? The [ __ ] total has jumped to nine since this morning. I mean, I have to rethink my totals and I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.

[00:30:36][ __ ] That's been my main problem here.

[00:30:39]The hiccup, the hurdle has been the weather and how to digest it when we still have a difference. When it first started, I was like, I feel confident.

[00:30:48]And then you lose a couple of these owners and you're like, I'm not as confident as I was a second ago. And but then it just hits the point of this is like it's artificial, you know, it's artificial. Meaning the it hits the point this is similar to Kors and why I don't go into granular detail of cores. And this could be the answer, right? This could this could technically be the answer.

[00:31:13]Win 20 m hour. Don't [ __ ] bother.

[00:31:16]Over or nothing. Don't even [ __ ] bother. Yo, could be honestly could be.

[00:31:20]Maybe it's wind 20 miles an hour, temperature over 70, right? To make sure that at least it's not like cold or whatever. Maybe. I don't know the answer. I don't I don't know that answer. I'm trying to watch and test in real time. It's really [ __ ] difficult. It's really difficult. I don't know. Like I said, I want to go under the nine. I really want to go under the nine. I'd be uh feel a little bit more strongly about going under an under a five. So like that. I think that's where we're going.

[00:31:52]I don't trust either [ __ ] offense as far as I could throw him.

[00:31:57]I'm going to see if I can catch a [ __ ] F5 U5 somewhere again. I have a little bit of shopping to do after I get off the [ __ ] air. Parker Messik, my boy going for the guards. He's a 130 dog. Tasheen Drohan and the Brewers.

[00:32:09]Like Dhan is okay. Don't get me wrong, I was one of the people kind of talking him up preseason. I have him on a couple of like draft champions teams, you know, but is goated and I think it's more of a condemnation on the guards and I'm immediately thinking I wonder if this is one of those plays where again I should be thinking about an under. Man, Dran really kind of hum. I didn't realize just how good his underpinning stuff was. He's been excellent along with Messi. Again, I don't think Messi should be a 130 [ __ ] dog.

[00:32:38]So, looks like we're on we're in a bunch of unders, ladies and gentlemen. Let me check. I'm not sure what this one is listed at. I see a U4.

[00:32:48]I kind of like the pens in this game.

[00:32:54]They're both rested. So, maybe maybe I like the full game under more than I like the F5. Oh, unless it looks like we're it's four. Is that what I have? Four and seven and a half. That is what I have.

[00:33:09]I'm an idiot.

[00:33:11]Under seven and a half or the Cleveland F5? I'm torn a little bit.

[00:33:20]All right. I'm going to How about the maybe just the U the U4, right? I'm worried about the Drowan distance.

[00:33:29]I don't know. Heavy favorite on the road though, man. Maybe the maybe the answer is that that full game that I've been, you know, not I don't want to default to anything, but it's the full game play I've been avoiding for so long, right?

[00:33:43]You don't have to even follow the show for that long to know. I I'm very open and very honest. I talk through a lot of this stuff, you know, about my own mistakes, where I get in trouble, where I [ __ ] up. And I'm not sure if this is one of those. I wish Cleveland was modeled over two. If Cleveland was modeled over to F5, I feel more confident in the F5 play and the price is not really there to take the half run minus 115 because again the Guardians are so [ __ ] bad that you worry the second they go down a run, you're never catching back up. Next up, Joey Ryan on the bump for the Twins. He's minus 125 on the road against Jack Lighter and the Rangers. I don't know, man. Lighter is a [ __ ] thriller minute. I would just go with uh Joey Ryan here, especially if the price is comparable F5. The problem with the Twins is the book is out on how bad the bullpen is. So oftentimes Joe Ryan will be minus 125 full game and like minus 155 for the [ __ ] half, which is [ __ ] shitty at that point.

[00:34:40]You might as well just bet that he's going to go seven and win the game or bet the F5 and then play for like the a piece on the run line if that makes sense. You know what I mean?

[00:34:51]Yeah. minus 155 for the first five. So you either have to like you either have to suck it up, pay the juice. You have to suck it up and believe in the Twins bullpin or you have to suck it up and buy into Jack Lighter. Now Ryan we know is [ __ ] awesome. Lighter is a [ __ ] thriller minute man here. I mean we got some time. We could He's one of the really polarizing guys. So we could [ __ ] hood pop on Lighter really quick. Again, I can't stop talking how much how much I love about cop copy and pasting into this into these name boxes on Savant Fangraphs. It's like it's it's just unreal.

[00:35:28]So, you can see Lighter now up to a 497 ERA with a 141 whip, which is bad. Not a single indicator at or below four, you know, which is bad. I think he throws the force too often, though. He's got good VO and good stuff. He does not get ahead. He works up in the zone and he misses up in the zone. So you get barrels, you get fly balls, you get home runs. Same as Ryan, but Ryan's command and control is significantly better.

[00:35:51]Right? Ryan giving up a couple homers is believable. It's also why I worry about the under in this case. Right? So again, how I've been trying to tie in all these kind of, you know, execution problems.

[00:36:05]And this I this does not check the box for oh, I thought where you have a favorite that you like, but you're worried about the offense behind it a little bit. I'm not as worried about the Twins getting the [ __ ] lighter. I'm not. I'm worried about the Twins bullpen coughing the [ __ ] [ __ ] up. That's what I'm really worried about.

[00:36:22]Twins are plus 135 on the cover. And I almost feel like if you're going to beat Jack Lighter, he's going to melt down.

[00:36:30]And if Joey Ryan is going to be good, he's going to [ __ ] ace it for you.

[00:36:34]So, you almost might as well play for the run line. Now, does that apply to the F5? The reason I'd say maybe not is because it's in the negative. It's minus 108. So that's a little bit unattractive. If that was plus 135 now, maybe you're speaking my language. So I don't know. This is something I don't know. This is something I've also trying to be a little bit more like open to is playing the run line and not being so damn cute about these one-run wins, right? The Twins offense is not great, but look, they are killing right now, you know, and I don't want to even the last two weeks, it's 315 played appearances of mashing. The Twins are [ __ ] mashing right now. Buckton is unconscious and [ __ ] Cody Clemens is [ __ ] raking right now. Even Lauren went deep the other [ __ ] day. Like, they're [ __ ] humming. But the bullpin is ass 69 RA last 43 innings for the Twins. But as you know, if you've been tailing me the last week or two, we've lost to [ __ ] bad bullpens in games that we would have generally felt confident in late. So, all right, let's wrap this [ __ ] up with the very last one. Shane Balls in the bump for the O's. They're on the road against Brian Woo and the Mariners. I've got Woo and the Mariners for a pretty clean win. I like Baz coming into the season, but it's just not working right now. Oh, [ __ ] I said I would do the lighter thing. Let me just hit the Hold on. Hold up.

[00:37:58]>> [screaming] >> Let me just hit reverse really quick because we do want to know about lighter. Like I said, Vlobe is good, extension is good, very good spin, and he gets whiffs. So, that's why he's, you know, throwing the four seamer so often.

[00:38:11]It's a really good pitch. He gets good break. He's got good movement. He's just under the 18 inches of IVB that we're always looking for induced vertical break. Backs it up with the slider. I mean, he misses with this [ __ ] pitch all the time. Major problem. So yes, he gets whiffs when it's on, but he misses really badly and gets killed. The same for the [ __ ] change up. You know, you don't want all your secondaries. Like for example, Jack Lighter doesn't have a single pitch in the arsenal with an X slug below 400. So you just can't be expecting like regression on all the contact stuff because again, the command and control is not good enough for lighter when he's sharp. Yeah, he's really sharp, but I say this all the time. I was saying this on the Sauce Network. I see it here all the time.

[00:38:51]He's the kind of guy because I actually think this happened to me. You bat on Jack Lighter, he's threw three and two/3 perfect [ __ ] ball. You hear as you're walking away, he teased a guy to get through the fourth and you're like, "Oh my god, this guy might throw a [ __ ] no hitter." So you take your time getting back to the TV, take a [ __ ] grab a [ __ ] beer. You know what I'm saying? Head back to the [ __ ] couch.

[00:39:14]You're losing [ __ ] 53. You're like, "Wait, what?"

[00:39:19]Oh yeah. Hit by first pitch. pit by pitch. And that's like how he rolls.

[00:39:22]Like it's not like he battled and he missed. It's all of a sudden spins off the [ __ ] rails. He hits a batter, hits a batter, walks a batter, walks a batter, right? Then then the misses come. Then the then uhoh, I need to force feed strikes, but I'll throw the slider. And he I mean, like we've seen this [ __ ] movie a thousand times. So there is a lot of potential, right? In conclusion, there's a lot of potential for Jack Lighter, but you got to understand what the risk is here, and I don't think at this level, he can be consistent.

[00:40:02]All right, next up, Shane Ba. I feel the same way about Boss. Since we're doing the analytical thing and we got plenty of time, I'm already under the hood with Boss.

[00:40:11]Horse has still got the VLOO at 96. It's down a tick from last year, but that's okay. half a tick or whatever.

[00:40:17]Really good spin, really good extension.

[00:40:19]Not getting whiffs in the four seamer.

[00:40:21]Maybe throwing it a bit too often.

[00:40:22]Backing it up with the curve and the [snorts] cutter which have performed okay. You'd like to see better contact profiles for the whiff rates which are kind of capped. Neither one up in the 30s. This is not good. And you know the change up that he's throwing to lefties gets destroyed. It's like the worst pitch in the arsenal. So his this has been the problem with Baz like we kind of circling around the target right here.

[00:40:46]So Baz's out pitch to lefties is a cur change up right. So he tries to pull the brakes on the VLOO go down from 96 to 88 which is which is good you know right in theory but you have to you have to get down with the pitch. You can't miss with it or telegraph it. Maybe he's tipping it. 103 of the 104 pitches he's thrown the change up have gone to lefty. So that's, you know, 90 more than 99% of them to lefties. A 753 X slug and an 11% whiff rate. You you can't you can't do that. Now I'm going to isolate to just lefties to see where that pitch falls.

[00:41:23]So that's 13% again. It's the it's the out pitch. It's the tertiary out pitch.

[00:41:27]He goes for seam curveball. When the curve ball isn't there, he tries to go change. And apparently they should be trying to get away with that with good reason. So there's very good reason to be worried about Bahaz. Woo is [ __ ] awesome. So like there's even a uh there's a D, right? Didn't we have a donkey pairing somewhere? Yeah, it's probably the Yankees. Betting Yankee favorites is like the worst [ __ ] bet in baseball. I wouldn't pay. Right. No, it's not the Twins because if you're going to go Twins, you pay the minus 125. Isolate it.

[00:42:02]Didn't we have somebody? No, we don't.

[00:42:03]So, I don't know, man. Same thing. It's probably Mariners run line. I worry a little bit having to challenge the [ __ ] Orioles.

[00:42:12]And I mean, the Mariners did get back Raleigh, but they also lost Julio yesterday.

[00:42:18]That's right. Oh, I forgot about that.

[00:42:19]Got to be careful, man. Gotta be careful. And also, obviously very hard to go under this one, man. I might be over, but it falls right in the line because the heavy favorite at home.

[00:42:35]But like this might be a sharp over.

[00:42:38]Maybe it's a Seattle team total and then we don't have to worry about the Baltimore offense sticking the finger in the [ __ ] Seattle's at 4 and a half plus 120. I don't know. I'm kind of stuck on that last one. Sorry, let's get the [ __ ] out of here. Yo, that's enough of that [ __ ] Yo, I appreciate everybody for watching the show. uh support good people doing good work. Check out the pin post on Substack. There's free samples. Same for Twitter. Just scroll.

[00:43:05]There's free samples. You know, if you have any questions, hit me up. You know, this is all about you. And if it's money that's really an issue, like honestly an issue, I'll front you a month for free and uh make eight bucks and keep signing up, right? So again, I'm I'm here for you. If I was trying to rob you, I'd be charging a little bit more. All right, quick recap on the picks. We got Toronto and Boston under early. Cleveland and Milwaukee under. I think Minnesota kills.

[00:43:34]That Baltimore game. I'm a little bit stuck, but I if I had to guess, I think I think Seattle kills. I do. And you know what? That's a good way to tackle those the Twins and the Seattle right with the juice rather than pair them and have one loss sink the ship. They're both a plus money if you even bet them at plus money. And they're nice plus money. Plus 135 plus 150. If you get one of the two, it's a winning venture.

[00:43:54]That's how that's how I would approach it and I might later on.

[00:44:02]Mets and Phillies, I'm to the under. Oh, this just looks like a losing [ __ ] ticket. St. Louis and KC, I'm to the under. I've got Giants winning F5 is the dog. And um Yankees with the [ __ ] kill on the White Sox also. So yeah, I guess I mean you could pair Yankees and Mariners. Like I guess that that actually makes sense late. I guess that was it. So if you went if you went Yankees I don't if you go Yankees Mariners.

[00:44:29]Yeah. Plus 167. I like that. Also I might put up a mix of that. Um rum lines and wins and parlays and stuff. Let's get the [ __ ] out of here. Y appreciate you all for picking up what I'm putting down. Please press the cartoon finger button because it matters more than it should. There's also football stuff.

[00:44:46]Same energy, same data.

[00:44:49]Description uh link is in the description below. But check out the videos. Those are under the video link.

[00:44:54]Same channel. I got baseball drafts. I also did a couple of round reviews.

[00:44:58]First round review, second round review.

[00:45:00]I got to do the third round review soon.

[00:45:01]I actually like that. A little bit different than I like the drafts cuz I just I just do stream of consciousness.

[00:45:07]So, we're talking EDP, we're talking stylistics, and we're talking strategy.

[00:45:11]Plus, I'm knocking drafts out. But also showing people my own decisions right where I put my money. But the round stuff is cool also because not only do I get to show off the tools, we get to take a little bit a deeper of a look.

[00:45:22]You know, when you're under the gun in a [ __ ] baseball draft, you have 20 seconds. There's only so much talking you could do. Even if you have backtoback turn picks, always so much talking you can do on the wraps up.

[00:45:32]Check out the foos bowl and the MLB.

[00:45:34]Hopefully we can uh you know, get back in the win column. Right. The last week has been it's been ugly and it's been a lot of just right those death by a thousand paper cuts and dying slowly. So hopefully we'll turn her back around and uh check these folk in later. Yo, enjoy the day. No, wait a minute. Enjoy the games. Enjoy the day. When we're done with the book, enjoy the pay.

[00:45:56]Imagine forgetting your own catchphrase.

[00:46:00]Remember, when you work this hard, the winning feels a lot less like luck. Yo, peace out to everybody in the comments.

[00:46:04]Sorry I didn't get to you. I got to chat.