Historical Bitcoin Signals Return... (Marked Every Bottom)

[00:00:00]These Bitcoin signals always appear during the Bitcoin bear markets, converge, and then kick off a major new bull market. So, that is what we need to discuss during today's video. I'm going to explain what this indicator means and why it always predicted the major bear market bottoms before the next big bull market. I'm going to give a theoretical explanation of what these signals mean and also a technical explanation of why these signals mark the bear market bottom. So, this is going to be a very important video and in the end of the video, I'm also going to show how you can use this indicator yourself completely for free. So, before we dive in, make sure to subscribe to the channel, watch and like my latest YouTube videos, and then we can talk about the most important content. So, what lines are we looking into today? We are looking into the realized price lines and we have discussed this before on the channel, but not in combination with each other because today we look into the realized price of the Bitcoin network, but also in the realized price of short-term holders and long-term holders. And that is what makes today's video so interesting. Before I dive into these lines, I do want to give a quick explanation. So, this time we're talking about the Bitcoin realized price split into three different lines. The realized one, the short-term holders, and the long-term holders. So, the yellow line on the chart here is basically the average price of where the entire Bitcoin network accumulated Bitcoin. So, the average price the market has paid for one single Bitcoin. Then you also have it for the short-term holders and this is the average cost basis of coins that moved within the last 155 days. If you move or have accumulated within 155 days, you can be defined as a Bitcoin short-term holder. Coins held by long-term holders are defined as coins that haven't been moved within the last 155 days. So, that have stayed dormant, silent 155 days or much longer than that.

[00:02:06]That's how it looks for long-term holders. What you do then to see during the bear market is that the short-term holders will get into some losses quite quickly because short-term holders accumulate during the big moves up, while long-term holders actually accumulate while Bitcoin is coming down.

[00:02:26]As of this moment, the lines are converging and moving towards each other once again, closing in on an bear market bottom. And that actually makes a lot of sense. If we zoom in on the chart here, we can see something interesting. This line is the short-term holder line. Here we have the realized price line, and here we have the long-term holder line.

[00:02:47]So, this is basically the price where long-term holders have been buying. This is the average price of the entire Bitcoin network, and here the short-term holders. So, short-term holders as of this moment are in a loss, and during the bear market, you can see it every single time we touch that level, we always get a new leg lower because short-term holders are usually taking profits once they get back into break even to cut some losses during the bear market. That is why this line is acting as a resistance now. Once you do start a new bull market, you do break back above this line. The realized price has not been hit yet, but that line is now about 53K, and the long-term holder line is about 50K. So, these lines are probably about to get hit because during every single bear market, we do tend to see that the Bitcoin price drops below these lines. It always happens. So, if history is going to repeat again, Bitcoin is going to drop below 50K, consolidate a little bit, and then break higher. And that is quite a short period when the true Bitcoin bear market bottoms are actually being marked. And then if you zoom out in the chart, if you are going to accumulate under those levels, you're looking into some absolutely amazing returns for Bitcoin if you compare it with all of the last major bull market.

[00:04:09]So, I think if Bitcoin is going to drop below 53 and even 50K, it is going to be a major major opportunity again. And if we look into the entire history of Bitcoin, it is probably going to happen because it happened every single time during every bear market and every mid-term year. And the beauty of the indicator is that also what you see at the bear market bottoms is that these lines converge with each other. They do come very closely after being overextended during the bull market. And that means that at some point in time, definitely when you do see crossovers in between the lines, it means that the entire Bitcoin network paid somewhat of a similar price, even short-term and long-term holders. And that is basically the reset Bitcoin needs before that next bull market up. Because at that point, much of the fuel for further downside is exhausted. The deeply underwater sellers are mostly gone and their coins now sit with buyers who entered at lower levels close to the bear market bottom. And the supply that changed hands during the capitulation slowly matures into the long-term cohort. So, once these lines are going to converge with each other, that is most definitely going to mark a moment very close to a Bitcoin bear market bottom. And we are not quite there yet. But realistically, over the next two to three months, we should be seeing these lines converge with each other and we should be having a Bitcoin bear market bottom that is probably going to happen below both the realized price and the long-term holder realized price. This is what have seen after every single bear market, during every single bear market and all of the four-year cycle. So, I simply do not think this time is going to be a lot different and it makes a lot of sense when the price is completely rebalanced.

[00:06:02]A lot more downside doesn't make sense and there won't be as much panic selling anymore as you do see now with all of these short-term holders getting out and selling off the Bitcoin they've bought at the relief rallies or maybe even at the Bitcoin top. And if you like this indicator, you can now claim it completely for free in my new Telegram channel. I'm also working on a new community channel where I will be posting these market letters. So, if you're interested into an detailed overview of these indicators and how you can use the different levels to also buy Bitcoin on spot before the next bull market is going to get started because you can imagine that for example at 52K level or that 50K level and most definitely the levels below it are very interesting for accumulating Bitcoin before the next bull market. Personally, I'm I am already DCA'ing Bitcoin, but these are levels where I for example have big limit orders on spot. So, at those levels I will be filled and will accumulate even more Bitcoin before the next bull market is going to get started. If you do want to navigate yourself in a similar way through the markets, then make sure to come over and join the Telegram. I will be sharing more details about it. You can now claim this indicator completely for free so you can use it yourself in TradingView, exactly the same indicator as I have been discussing in today's video. You can claim it completely for free. The only thing is that you have to join the Telegram channel, which is also by the way completely free to join. There are no entry rules or something, it's completely free to join. It's just a Telegram channel. Also, I will be doing more market updates in here. So, if you're interested in that, you can join and then I will see you there. It will be the first link under today's video.

[00:07:44]So, if you did enjoy today's video, make sure to subscribe to the channel, join the Telegram channel, and then I will see you guys within my next video.

[00:07:52]Later.