Upcoming Bull Run -TX Alpha & Crypto Market Analysis 2026 @BRW_Solo​

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:06]Hey there everybody, BRW Solar here and uh today I just want to make a video and review some of the charts. Um I feel like we have a lot of data to go through and I kind of want to give you guys my angle on what I'm seeing here. Um, so I just want to give you better perspective on what we're seeing here because I know everybody's freaking out about, hey, are we in a bare market, bull run or what's going on, right? So I want to use the facts here in the charts to sort of present everything here in a manner that everybody understands because when I post them on X, it's not very straightforward. So let's go through where I think is the most important is the foundational and why I think we're actually moving forward here um but with some caveats now. So there's three important things to understand when it comes to um the markets especially crypto right so there's going to be three things of foundational support.

[00:01:06]First we're going to have is global liquidity and we know that's increasing.

[00:01:10]We can check that online. I think it's around 130 bill trillion sorry 130 trillion of um available money. So it aggregates a lot of data M2 um just what's just available out there. So all of that when that um is trending that's a good thing. Right now there's a chance it could be plateauing but it's not contracting. The other one is the ISM PMI which is we look at the manufacturing. There's another ISM called the service. Uh we'll get into that later. The one I have in front of you is the manufacturing PMI. And then of course the third one is if the Fed if they're contracting their assets or not.

[00:01:54]And that's what this green line is here.

[00:01:55]So again, we're going to look at the ISM manufacturing PMI, right? So this is the economy and then you have the Fed's buying of assets which tells us if they're contracting liquidity out of this system or not, right? So these three are very fundamental for market growth right or support liquidity and then there's the surface level economics right which is you know tariffs wars or rate cuts or whatever. Now those things do not matter as much as much as you hear that on the news it's less important because they actually have more of a compression factor. So if the three foundational things I just told you are holding as very strong support then the rest are just noise and they could just hold the compression of the price uh in all markets um for a brief moment of time. It could take 3 to 6 months sometimes. So that's why I think it's very important to wait on uh this Middle East uh war um because it affects our energy and so this is very important that certain things do settle because when certainty does come in they become a catalyst. So all right let's go to the charts here really quick. So ISM manufacturing PMI. So as you can tell here and I'm I have these dates here. Um we're going to look right here in October of 2022. Right? So, this is where the 50 line is. Now, why is 50 important? Because if you're below 50, you're contracting. And if you're above it, you're expanding. So, as you can tell, since October 2022, I like to point this point out right here, uh, we've been contracting, right? And so, when the markets contract and when the economy contracts, I say the markets tend to contract as well. So October 2022 marked the point where we had confirmation that contraction was in play. Although the market started to top actually much sooner. Um that was around 2021.

[00:03:52]Everybody remembers that Ron. But when you look at this piece of data here, right, why is it so important? Because this is five almost 4 and 1/2 years of contraction, right? So it did gives no give for the altcoin market at all.

[00:04:05]You've had two attempts, failed, and then now we had a breakthrough. Now, here's the thing. Just because we had a breakthrough, it can take any time between 1 to 6 months for it to be seen and carry over into the altcoin markets.

[00:04:18]Okay? But we still have other conditions that we got to make sure uh get checked off here. So, we have the ISM manufacturing which is expanding with four months straight. We are going to get five. Um, and then also if you look at this green line, this is the Fed's buying of assets, right? So, they've been contracting this entire time during the time that we've had over here the contraction. So, clearly that's not good for markets, but with the expansion of the ISM manufacturing PMI and you finally were starting to see like a little bit of um momentum here, slow, right? Albeit very little bit, but it's support. This is key because when this starts becoming uh when this levels out and even gradually moves up, that should tell you right away, well, we shouldn't be in a bare market anymore because we have economic expansion. Global liquidity is still increasing. It's not contracting. Um and then uh the Fed, they're continue continuing to buy assets. But this is key because they're buying to keep their reserves ample, right? We know that. And so they had to they had NQT, which is quantitive tightening. And when they end QT, um, they're in a sort of like a light QE. So they're basically trying to, uh, keep their balance sheet in check. So now, anyways, now that you kind of have an understanding of this, hopefully we can go look into some other charts here.

[00:05:44]Now, I took that same structure and I applied this to and I want to show you this. This is the total crypto market cap. Okay. So, if you look now, obviously I have it from the very beginning from when this started, um, you have a trend line, and this trend line has been support for almost the entire time that this chart's been out.

[00:06:09]Okay? So, if you look at 2021, the top, we saw that we had a bare market, right? And then we started to move up and we started to kind of do the same thing with what I did with the ISM which is you have well in this bottom area it's going to be your contraction zone and this is going to be expansion zone right but uh the thing is the problem is is that this was all inflated by Bitcoin and we didn't see that representation for alts. Okay, so there's more to this.

[00:06:42]Um, and the reason for that has everything to do with Bitcoin following a little bit with the stock market with the dollar uh index being forced um to to work a little bit differently. So when the dollar goes down in value, stocks go up and Bitcoin took a little bit of that with it. But at the same time, uh you can tell that we had ETFs being bought up here and we had corporate treasuries also. Um so this added to uh the momentum which you see for Bitcoin. Okay. So, I want to also talk about here about Bitcoin. Now, to understand where we are in this market, I think it's very important that people understand exactly what I'm seeing as far as the conditions of the structure. So, I know it's a little bit of a mess here, but I'm going to try to do my best to kind of point it out here cuz I actually drew out all of these Elliot waves here, and it seems like I have to go on this. Okay. So, I wasn't able to make this as clear as I wanted, but it's okay. So, if you guys remember, I talked about 2021 here, and then we had this crash to uh 2022.

[00:07:49]All right. When you have a proper wave count, which I believe I do, it will give you an idea of where we are in this particular stage of Bitcoin's price action. All right. So, here you have wave 1, which is this entire wavelength here. So, you count these little microwaves. You got 1 2 3 4 5. you followed by an ABC consolidative uh correction. And there's ways to figure this out, too, but it makes um I'm just looking at it simply here. So, ABC followed by another fivewave count. So, you got 1 2 3 4 5 and then you have an ABCD to E. So, these are five waves, which is usually five versus three. So, they're kind of inversed. Um generally, that's one of the rules. And then when you broke when we broke out here, you can see these impulsive waves when they go up. I mean, they go up hard. It goes one, right? three and then what you have is five. Now, what a lot of people don't understand is that I'm seeing here an ABC correction, right? This is right here, we starting a brand new. So, this is 2025, which was the start of the altcoin bare market. But look, I wrote here impulsive. That means wave 1 through five. This was supposed to be the entire run where alts were supposed to have benefit out of this. But alts did not like this phase during the corrective phase. That's why we know that the altcoin bare market started in January of 2025. All right. So, as we count these waves down here, you have five waves down or sorry, three waves. It's actually three waves cuz you have truncated five here. Then you have 1 2 3. Okay. ABC followed by and I didn't write this here but just follow with me here. You have another A B and a C here.

[00:09:36]All right. And then what you end up having here is um 1 2 3 and you have a four and a five. And it's another truncated five. Okay. Uh if people are thinking that we're going to have 1 2 3 4 five.

[00:09:56]In theory that could be true but not based on the uh the three pillars I just mentioned right global liquidity and the economic strength and then what the Fed is doing monetary policy very important that's lesson I should have learned is you trade on policy not on patterns um so the reason why I think we're already in wave one and we're about to do wave two here and we're going to see very shortly here if we're done with wave two and I'll expand on that here in a little bit more um zoomed in fashion here, but when I was trying to explain here, let's go again. So, we have this trend line here, right? So, this is that trend line that's actually we just ended up breaking out of. So, when we looked at that contraction wave, this was the last correction wave of wave C. You had wave you have five waves by the way in a wave C to end that entire super cycle whatever set we were just in right since 2022. So you go one 2 3 4 and a five.

[00:11:01]All right. So that means that this trend line should be wave 1 and then we should come down to wave two. But wave two now I like where it's holding now but it doesn't mean it's finished. Okay. Why do I say that? Cuz wave two in this sense means that from wave 1, if you measure it this way, right? Well, we're going to measure it here. Um, you can't get that to go.

[00:11:25]There we There we go. All right.

[00:11:29]What you end up seeing here is, see this 382 here?

[00:11:37]That's a really good level where it bounced off of. But wave twos don't generally bounce off the 382 unless the market's really strong. And I don't think it is right now. I think there's still a lot of uncertainty what we have.

[00:11:48]So you got to look to other levels which I said, "Hey, let's look at this 618."

[00:11:53]Now, there's a chance you could come down to 60,000, which is one, right?

[00:11:56]This is right here at 64,000. Yeah, there's a chance. Now, there's to me, my opinion, not financial advice, no chance we'll come down lower than 60,000. It just doesn't make sense based on everything we just reviewed. So, if I look at what could be possibility of support, I'm going to turn on two things here. I'm going to turn on the VRVP, which is uh volutric uh support, and I'm going to turn on another one, which is the Gossian channel. And these are one of my two favorite indicators here. So, let's just look here. Now, we counted wave 1. We broke the trend line. And why did we break the trend line? I'm going to turn on this other one here, which is the 200 SMA. This came down became rejected right now. As we got rejected, we held a 382. It's not over because we entered the Gaussian channel. That's why I think it's not over just yet. Alts don't want to move yet. So, where do I see Look at this volumetric support here. I'm going to turn to the right here and I'm going to say 618. Oh, wow. There's a big mountain there. Yeah, lot of support right here at 71,000. This is why I said 71,000. Okay, so the Gaussian channel would also that would be at the very bottom end of that which would be a nice good flush out and then boom, we have another shot of breaking out of this 200 day moving average. Okay, so all these things are very important to understand or at least where I'm coming from. Uh I'm going to turn the page here to TX for a second and we're obviously in a trend. Very hard to chart because there's just no structure. We don't have a bottom yet. You can't do any Fibonacci. Uh we're just looking at daily indicators here, which I'm going to show you right here. Uh RSI, well, not much of a trend other than an uptrend, right? Not much you can do. But the other problem that I'm saying is be careful. This RSI and the daily flipped down again to a historical low on the daily, right? Not good. I mean, but the thing is we're trying to see with what's what else is going on here. Buying pressure is still continuing to go up because that's money flow. But the reason why I think we're going to have one more drop is you we didn't have this fake out like I thought. But this MAG D is also showing us that uh well darn we're crossing over. This is our first cross in history since the TX launch. So the market and TX is actually responding to that. And um I'm going to show you some other things. This going to be a longer video. Um let's let's look at something about the Bitcoin dominance that I noticed here.

[00:14:27]Um, interesting thing about Bitcoin dominance. So, the way you measure this is you go really from the history from the way back in 2017. That's where we're going right here, 2017. We measure the top of 2020. And then we take this bottom of 2022. All right. So, now it gives us um the structure here looking forward. And so, when we saw in June of 2025, well, what happened right after that? Genius Act got signed, right?

[00:14:55]Stable coins. stable coins got signed by Trump and we ended up having stable coin season. We know that. But this was the thing everybody was looking at this this 702. It's funny. It's right at the 702 rejection and everyone was thinking, "Oh, where's our altcoin season?" You had to look into what you had to look into altcoins or I'm sorry, um stable coins. Stable coins were what grabbed all the liquidity and all the momentum.

[00:15:20]They're sideline money. But now when you look sideways here, right, for all this long time, what just got rejected here, and I really think this is a good rejection right at the 618. And I think this is where RWA season's going to start. And I'm going to pair this with something very interesting here. Um, but if you look this, the way that's bleeding out to me, it really makes a lot of sense because if I go on the two-day, this 200 day is starting to lose momentum. Okay.

[00:15:52]So, very interesting to me because that looks like a bleed out pattern. That looks like a rejection to me. Cool. Um, and then another thing is we're pairing this with altcoins. And I think this is where it gets more interesting because I'm going to put this on the monthly.

[00:16:07]And if you look, this is altcoins excluding Bitcoin and stable coins.

[00:16:13]Okay. So, stable coins. So, this removes a lot of the noise that you're seeing here. And all right, so we have a trend line and I have this little triangle here. This just tells you we've been consolidating. That's what all coins have been doing, including Ethereum, right? But as you can tell, like I have these Fibonacci here. The way I did it is pretty interesting. So we had consolidation. We broke out. We held support on this 236, the red Fibonacci line. Well, guess what? rejected right on the money at the 382 and again and we found support but below on the trend line by the way this trend line goes I mean as far as I can make it right and I told everybody on a post I said critical recovery in February we did get that now I didn't know it was the bottom of the market yet but I said well we definitely need it I didn't know it was the b bottom market till April so now we're under this 236 for 3 months but we're also pretending that this is resistance which is very key and very interesting. So now I wonder do we start making a move up to this green line here? We will find out, right? I mean right now things are positive, right?

[00:17:22]It's just playing a little bit of indecision. So um and then I got to get into this one other part of Ethereum cuz Ethereum is going to be the one that all TX holders, first of all, if you're a TX guy like I am, uh for RWAs, I really think everyone should check that out. um TX is going to be what I think is going to be the revolutionary coin of um real world ass tokenization compliance, right? But RWAs are still the charts are still going to move with the market, right? So just because there's delays going on with the SEC and everything that you're hearing, that's fine because the charts are telling us we're going to have this. So I have um a chart on Ethereum and I really think this is very interesting. So this is 4 and a half years of contraction that lines up very well with the ISMP PMI, right? The one that we just talked about earlier. So what am I saying here is two things. If you want to know if you're a TX holder, altcoin holder, and you want to know when is our time, I think I have figured this out, and I think this is key to the whole video. You're going to watch two levels for Ethereum. Just watch Ethereum.

[00:18:28]Ethereum is going to be your best friend here. I want you to watch 2500 and 4700.

[00:18:35]We'll say 4,700 on this, right? And that's what these two yellow lines are exactly right here. It's a 618 and then the one. All right. Now, what is going on here with Ethereum is very interesting because just like what Bitcoin did, we we have a little bit of a lag in structure for Ethereum. But I think we may be seeing an ascending triangle here. We won't know until this bounces off. Okay?

[00:19:00]There's a lot of bullish evidence.

[00:19:01]There's a lot of bearish evidence, but we don't know. I'm just saying once I see this recover and we have a little fake out, we have a little rally, right?

[00:19:09]And then another crash, sure, that crash will tell me that we're going to have a little I shouldn't say crash, but correction would be that we could definitely make this uh sending triangle more valid because I have a fractal from the Netflix. If you guys follow my post, it's linked to my u um it's pinned to my post here.

[00:19:27]that structure could break out and we could start seeing 2026, the second half of it to be extremely awesome in our favor here. Okay, so um there's more details on that. Anyways, I'm just showing you what I'm seeing here as far as all the data. So hopefully I'll try to expand on things a little bit more in detail, a little more slower, but I'm just giving you the whole or over overview. This has been a long video, 20 minutes. So, um, anyways, if you guys enjoy the content, um, stake to my validator, which is BRW Capital, and I really appreciate you guys. I'll see you guys on the next one.