Market recovery is characterized by broad participation across sectors, with both high-beta and low-beta stocks participating simultaneously, indicating strong market confidence; the advance-decline ratio serves as a key indicator of market breadth, and when stocks return to their 200-day moving averages or psychological price levels, it signals potential trend reversals and short covering activity that can propel further market gains.
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Nifty To Open Higher? Expert Predicts Strong Rally In Banks, Pharma & Energy Stocks | Business NewsAdded:
What's it looking like for today at least at the index level?
Very good setup for the markets. I think what transpired yesterday was you know we were lucky that the news came out during market hours because generally you know such kind of news they generally transpire or happens overnight and then we are prone to those big gap ups for the indices. But it's good to see a participation. You know as you rightly mentioned the market breadth was stellar yesterday 3:1 in terms of advance decline ratio. I think it's a sort of a rarity which we've seen we've not seen over the last many days, many weeks.
I think that coming at a point where the indices were still trading into a broader range as such I think was a you know a good relief side for the markets.
And it was also very good to see many of the underperforming sectors making a comeback yesterday. You know right from the likes of private sector banking names which made a very good comeback from their intraday lows. The PSU banking lot also recovered. And then the usuals certainly the pharma sectors, the FMCG names etc. which have been doing fairly well for themselves. So it was a mix of you know high beta, low beta sectors making a strong comeback. The overall market getting back to their confidence zone. A decent amount of short covering which you know we we saw evidently across many stocks and many indices. So I think that's what transpired yesterday and that could propel the markets further going forward. I would not believe that we would probably open on a flattish note. My sense is that we should open at least half a percent kind of a positive on the indices today and then maybe carry forward from there. So where do you see sector leadership Kunal because IT, L&T of course was one of the biggest drags yesterday and sober leadership names like Reliance?
Yeah so I think in terms of individual sectors it's still a little difficult to try and find this composition within the Nifty 50 basket. Of course ex-Nifty 50 I think there are so many sectors which have been doing well. You know we've been discussing power energy names, real estate stocks they've done phenomenally well for themselves. Financial services is a pocket making a good comeback.
Both you know so so for example I think names like L&T Finance, Shriram Finance, Cholamandalam Finance, Bajaj Finance yesterday managed to make a good comeback for themselves.
FMCG has been doing reasonably well.
Pharma also I think in pockets have started to look very attractive. In fact, the Pharma index, if I'm not wrong, yesterday made a fresh all-time high. So, you know, these are kind of rarities when you see into stock prices because when you see sectors behaving in a very cohesive manner, both the high beta and the low beta sectors or defensive and aggressive sectors, I think that's a very strong telltale sign that the markets are making a strong comeback. Well, how do you look at this market because if you look at in last 1 month, you made what, 1,600 points gain on the index. And 40-45% has come from the financial services segment.
Do you see enough steam left in the financial services segment?
>> Yeah, quite a few. In fact, so you know, very recently many of these stocks have come back about their 200-day moving averages. Case in point, Bajaj Finance.
I think the stock was languishing at you know, the sub 900 mark, 880, 850 levels.
But about I think for the first time I think in the last many months, you've seen the stock trying to come back above its 200 DMA. And what's happened simultaneously is that many of the other stocks like AB Capital has come back towards the previous highs. L&T Finance has come back towards I think 295, 300 yesterday. So, many of these stocks are making a comeback. So, even with the sector doing very well, many of the NBFC stroke HFC names, they've started to look attractive. And then the biggest aspect was if I look at banking also as a pack, then private sector banking stocks have underperformed. But after weeks of price correction, yesterday was one of the first signs where private sector banking stocks starts to look attractive. You saw a decent amount of short covering. And when stocks come back to their strong psychological mark, case in point for example, HDFC Bank coming to 800, ICICI Bank coming closer to 1,300 mark, etc., then it's a strong indication that the the traders who are on the short side or who have been trading on the short you know, selling the call options, they would start to unwind their positions or they would start to feel the heat. So, I think in that context and since it's long expiry, I would probably believe that you might go into a phase very soon where these underperforming private sector banking names makes a comeback and that itself will probably propel the contribution further from the financial services pocket to the benchmark indices. I'll come to you for your picks, but since we're talking about financials and you mentioned HDFC Bank, yesterday there was a news flow in the last hour of trade that the Bombay High Court has quashed the FIR against Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan. On the back of that, we've seen that 3% uptick on HDFC Bank. What next for that one on the charts? Yeah, so in fact, you know, that was another rarity because HDFC Bank was supposedly supposed to be an underperformer. So, you know, yesterday ICICI Bank was up 2 2 and 1/2 or 3% Axis Bank was up 2 and 1/2 2.75% approximately and HDFC Bank having a slight edge. So, that tells you that, you know, there's been an extent of higher short covering for HDFC Bank, at least looking at the magnitude of the price move which was seen yesterday. Uh, so that I believe could probably be a very strong indicator. My sense is that we could now be looking at a 25 25 point club for HDFC Bank. That's the best way to try and ride the trend over the near term because once the stock breaks past about 865 barrier, that's where I would believe that a major part of the momentum could come back again. But till that time, I think for a short-term trader, you have to play with a 25 point kind of an uptick and then reassess your positions for HDFC Bank. As of now, I think 825 could be a decent short-term target. And what about your stock strategies? So, HDFC Bank finally is the first one which I would suggest as a buy. Going for a contra bet over here expecting that you know, the stock would try and find its mojo back again. So, we suggest a buy with a target of 825. Stop loss could be kept at you know, triple 7 and from the other stock, I would look at JSW Energy. This could be an interesting contra bet from the current juncture looking at the price structure. The recent very recent price correction for JSW Energy would suggest a buy with a near-term target closer to 595.
Stop loss could be kept Okay. Let's take a very quick break on that note. But, when we come back, we've got some very interesting data lined up for you. What is it that FIIs sold in the fiscal gone by and specially in the latter part of the fiscal. We got that list out and we'll highlight those stocks in [music] just a bit after this very short break.
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