Tesla to Sell 2.1 m Model 3 and Y in 2026

本站添加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:02]Well, Brian White, the good good good news is that after two years of flat automotive sales, Tesla seems to be hitting it out of the park and hitting it out of the park around the world. I mean, everywhere on the planet, we're hearing amazing stories about the sales of Tesla vehicles. And so, I kind of wanted to go around the world with you on that. But, you know, in order to sell them, you got to be able to make them.

[00:00:30]So, let's start with capacity.

[00:00:33]>> Um, let's start with Fremont. I think you did an article the other day on Fremont being tighter. You did a YouTube video rather on on on on Fremont being very very uh uh tight for space, but >> space constrained for sure.

[00:00:48]>> Space constrained. But can they make the what's the the number I think on on the website is 550. I think I've calculated 650,000.

[00:00:59]What do you think >> they could they remove the SNX line?

[00:01:03]That's going to have a negative impact of about 50,000. So, I'm going to say we're at 500ish um on those. And by the way, I thought the good news was that the weather's the same as yesterday for you there. That's pretty exciting stuff.

[00:01:17]>> I'm going to say, yeah, it's they're able to do little incremental things to make things easier. If you compare, for example, most luxury cars, Jaguar Ipace has 30,000 parts. Model Y has 10,000 parts. Well, I just want another button, my friend. It's not a button. It's a different button for each of us. And next thing you know, you're back to the waffle iron of buttons. So, simplicity is the key to high volume production.

[00:01:45]Fremont, absolutely. 500,000. They're always able to squeeze out another percent or two. Fremont is one of the two factories Tesla has that makes cars that is absolutely at full speed all the time.

[00:01:59]>> Okay, so let's go let's let's go with 500,000. Let's move on to Texas. Uh I think they've probably only been making around 350,000 cars. What do you think they could cars and and cybert trucks?

[00:02:11]What do you think they could make? So, I don't know if they're even at 350 because once you lump in all the China numbers, China's very big. What could they make? Well, [clears throat] they're not making enough Cybert trucks uh at all. It is uh problematic.

[00:02:31]We know they could make 50,000, 100, probably 250,000, but they're running one shift 4 days a week and it's not even, you know, get that up, bump that up to four shifts.

[00:02:45]Uh, you could easily get to, what do we see last quarter, 12,000? Uh, you would not just quadruple that number to, you know, 40 50,000, but you have inefficiencies when you start and stop the line at the beginning and end of each day. So, I think they would have to uh expect a much higher number and I don't know what the solution is to Cybertruck. It's just kind of too expensive. If the 599 model is profitable, I say bring it back and keep it because at 60 you're going to have a whole lot more market. So, capacity.

[00:03:23][sighs and gasps] Another misconception I still see sometimes is people say, "Oh, Tesla sells every car they make." And I say, "Yes, but they only make as many cars as they intend to sell because they could absolutely produce vastly more out of Texas and Berlin than they are currently doing. Uh, but in Texas, yeah, I would say um, Model Y lines doing okay. Uh, Cybertruck line is doing not okay. So capacity out of that factory easily 500,000 plus versus the actual run rate of I'd say 300 or less.

[00:04:02]>> Okay. All right.

[00:04:03]>> But that's still, you know, hundreds of cars a day.

[00:04:06]>> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. If we slip So we got 500 and 500. We slip over to Berlin.

[00:04:11]>> Actually, no. We got to cover Cyber Cab.

[00:04:14]If we're in Texas, that's right.

[00:04:16]>> We got to cover CyberCab.

[00:04:18]>> They're producing it, man. They're actually making it. That's not something you do for a product that's a year or two or 10 out. That's a real product that is already starting to ship around of the country. Some for validation, some lying in weight to pounce. So the capacity on that, we don't know. Maybe it's a 100,000 a year. Maybe it's a half million a year. It is too soon to say on that.

[00:04:48]>> Okay. All right. Then we'll go to Berlin. Uh I'm guessing I'm I don't have a number on Berlin. I think that it's there are published numbers that are probably pretty good on Berlin, but I think I think the uh the um uh name plate capacity >> name plate is 350. I think >> it might be 350. It might be 550. Either one doesn't matter. They just sold their 750,000th car.

[00:05:14]>> Okay. So they are, you know, they have more capacity, but didn't we just see them hiring for another shift?

[00:05:22]>> Yeah, >> that's in part because sales outside of Germany have rebounded quite well. In Germany, it appears they've also rebounded quite well and they're exporting to Canada, >> right? So another 500,000.

[00:05:39]>> Well, capacity, sure, but production, no.

[00:05:43]>> No, I'm saying but capacity.

[00:05:44]>> Yeah. Yeah. capacity. Absolutely.

[00:05:46]>> Okay. The one that I'm the most confident on, maybe you'll maybe you'll agree, maybe you won't, but is is uh Shanghai. And Shanghai, we've had lots of 80,000 months. I think we've even had maybe close to 90,000 one month, 88,000, 89,000. So, I've always said that if they had to, if they got everybody over there just, you know, incentivized, they could probably go 1.1. But I think a million is safe. A >> million is safe. I agree 100%.

[00:06:15]The Model Y line runs like lightning.

[00:06:18]The Model 3 line historically has been a little lower in part because it's a much older line. It is their Gen 2 manufacturing philosophy where Model Y is their Gen 3 manufacturing philosophy.

[00:06:31]Model 3 is manufactured almost entirely in a single floor straight line kind of building where Model Y utilizes cubic space a little more efficiently. Model Y, if they were both running at full speed, you would still see vastly more Model Y's than Model 3s. Total square footage, floor space is greater for the Model Y because it's multiple floors even though it's only about equal to the total land area covered. the footprint.

[00:07:01]So, Model 3, it's a sedan. Sedans are wow popular in some parts of the world, uh, less and less popular in the US, less and less popular even in China, but still popular. And what we've seen now is whatever number they did last year, they can increase it because they've unlocked new markets. And one of those markets is Canada.

[00:07:27]Canada, you can import a vehicle if it's under 399 Canadian or 39 about 40,000 Canadian, which is like 28,000 US.

[00:07:40]>> And right, but the Model 3 is over that.

[00:07:42]>> It's not the retail price, it's the import price.

[00:07:46]>> The import price is below the cap. So, as long as you sell half the cars are Model 3s out of China, the other half can be uh Model 3 performance, Model 3 Long Range out of China still counts.

[00:08:03]>> And then, of course, they're bringing in the Model Y's from Canada. And uh as I said on your show yesterday, Canada is the only country that's gotten Model Y's from all three countries that Tesla makes them. It's kind of fun.

[00:08:15]>> Okay. So overall then I'm looking at 2.5 plus million is the capacity without a lot of additional work >> that doesn't >> without substantial retooling staffing changes >> are really jamming you know making sure that you know everything's just at at peak performance. So somewhere between 200 something over 250 thou 2.5 million um and a 2.5 million that means we could easily have a 30% bump this year without strain now getting a second 30% bump might start getting into the area of what do we need to change in the factory what you know how do we speed up the Model 3 line in Shanghai or something uh in order to get a second 30% but we might be able to get a a 20% bump the second year and none of that counts a semi-truck.

[00:09:06]>> Mhm. Randy, when is the biggest time of year for car sales?

[00:09:11]>> December.

[00:09:13]>> Fourth quarter. But summer is also big, >> right?

[00:09:16]>> Q1 is the only weak time Q1 has passed.

[00:09:20]We are coming into the summer. We're going to have two quarters that reflect that followed by Q4. Um the days of the high oil prices are definitely helping Tesla sales to an extent.

[00:09:34]Unlike a lot of manufacturers, Tesla doesn't have just an ocean of inventory sitting on lots waiting to move. You will find in Australia that the BYDs are selling like crazy because they had them on the lots. If Tesla had them on the lots. So to the people who get really ups, oh my gosh, Tesla's days of inventory keeps creeping up. No, my friend, that's probably a good thing.

[00:09:58]And especially with inflation as high as it is, the sooner you get them on the lot, maybe the less they cost. Although the flooring cost is not nothing either.

[00:10:08]>> Yeah. Okay. So, now we know kind of what we've got to play with that, as is a famous saying, we know what's in the basket. So, now we have an ability to we have something in the basket to sell.

[00:10:20]>> Is it eggs?

[00:10:21]>> Eggs. Eggs.

[00:10:22]>> We keep all of them in there.

[00:10:23]>> And sausage and Yeah. So, let's talk about the countries. Let's talk about the the markets. So, [snorts] let's start with Europe. You mentioned a few minutes ago that uh sales appear to be up kind of across the board in Europe.

[00:10:35]Uh there are some bright spots. Um and of course, I've never quite understood.

[00:10:40]I guess there's still some lumpiness.

[00:10:43]>> They will send, >> you know, all their cars to uh to the Netherlands and none of their cars to Spain or something. But taking out the lumpiness, what does it look like to you in Europe?

[00:10:55]>> Improving. Um we are seeing big big numbers in Spain for example. Now I haven't looked at these recently so uh my numbers may be out of date but there is absolutely when they revamped the Model Y it reintroduced the delivery wave. So the same story keeps unfolding quarter after quarter. Um month one, oh my gosh, Norway sales fell to zero.

[00:11:19]Month two, oh actually they're okay.

[00:11:21]Month three, unbelievable. Number one again. I can't believe we're still it's been so many years of trying to explain this, but it's difficult to explain something to someone when their job requires them not to. Uh so there is uh you know, you wouldn't be adding another shift to Giga Berlin if you didn't have the demand, >> right?

[00:11:46]>> To me, that's just the end of the story there. Uh we see the same thing in Korea. They have delivery waves. Korea.

[00:11:51]I don't know how many people know this, but Kia and Hyundai make up 70 to 85% of the market in any given time period. The fact that they can sell any Teslas at all is to me a huge testament to the quality, to the experience, to the UI, to all of it. And I'm sorry to my Kia friends, but the Model 3 and Y are just plain better. They're a better car than the Kia electric offerings. The same is true in Japan. You can't go to Japan, Randy. You can't sell cars there. They won't want them. Turns out they do.

[00:12:26]Turns out Tesla's a very strong importer of electric vehicles in a market that is absolutely starved for good electric vehicles. So, these are countries that were considered not impossible, but unlikely uh in terms of your ability to be successful there. And we've still got more markets to unlock. It was the number one car in Colombia. In Colombia, surely a a comp a country with uh such a small GDP, such low annual uh median income can't be number one, not number one EV, number one car.

[00:13:04]>> So that is uh the notion that it's over is once again debunked. And I saw even someone in the comments on my video saying, "Oh, Tesla's done. It's all about SpaceX now." And just a bunch of comments going, "What are you talking about?"

[00:13:24]Yeah, the company's done. It's only got, you know, tens of billions of dollars in quarterly revenue.

[00:13:31]>> Yeah. What What are they going to do?

[00:13:33]Yeah. [laughter] So, yeah. So, of course, we have Australia, which seems also to be up this year. We've got uh some of the southeastern Asian countries now are are importing them. I mean, we've got Chile, I think Argentina or Brazil, I forget which one. One of those two I think is on the list now. Um so, we're opening these new markets as you point out. They may be smaller, but Chile's no uh uh got a lot of wealthy people in Chile and a lot of wealthy people in Berlin. And with the changes of government in in um Argentina, that country might be coming back pretty strong as well. It seems like there's a lot of ways to grow not just in not just in countries that we're already in, but rather by expanding the total uh the total base.

[00:14:22]>> Yeah. All true. All true. And then if we do want to talk about semi, which I think is premature, they'll just sell everyone they can build for the foreseeable future. I would like to see them get 5 10,000 out this year. You only need to get to about two or 3,000 before you are the largest uh EV truck seller in all of US history. You only need to get to about 7 to 10,000 in total before you eclipse all of them combined. That could happen this year, but if it doesn't happen by the end of next year, I'll be surprised.

[00:15:00]>> So, I haven't looked this up. We know that there maybe and maybe you don't know so I'm sorry if I'm blindsiding you but we know that the rough uh annual purchases of trucks in the of of these kind of uh >> class A trucks are somewhere between 200 and 250 on a great year they can be a little bit higher than 250 on a horrible year they'll drop below 200 but that that's kind of the range.

[00:15:23]>> Um who's the biggest and how many trucks do they sell in the United States? EC Cascadia Freightlininer would probably be the biggest. They've sold they sold a thousand last year, but they're only on pace to hit a hundred this year. Total, they're probably under 3,000, maybe 3,500. Uh BYD has quite a few, hundreds, not thousands, mostly operating for Dreage in ports. Nickeola sold 207, I think. So Tesla Semi has already outsold the Nickeola Trey. Um, and then beyond that, it starts getting real quiet real quick.

[00:16:01]>> Okay, let's go back the I actually was hoping maybe for the total number. So, in other words, the including diesel, what you >> Oh, including diesel. Yeah. So, I think >> Kenworth might be the biggest. Um, but to become number one, you'd probably need to hit about 50,000. 40 50,000.

[00:16:20]>> Okay. All right. So, we could see >> I haven't looked it up recently, but that's the best of my recollection.

[00:16:24]Well, when you got 200,000 total and you got a few big players, I mean, Damler, Kenworth, etc. So, there's >> Yeah. Mac, Peter Belbelt. Yeah.

[00:16:32]>> Yeah. So, so that's probably that's probably a solid number. All right. Um, what about uh cyber what what's your any news? Do what what is your thinking at least about cyber cab and uh and um semi in uh Berlin? Do you think both of those get made in Berlin? Is there any evidence of buildings or things that would cause that would support a future there?

[00:16:59]>> So, I believe at some point both of those will be built in Berlin. We do have a big clearing to the north of the site by the train station. You don't put a train station there if you're not putting a building right next to it. And in Berlin, because the activists are uh aggressive and often successful, the second you get a permit to take a tree down, you take the tree down because then you can't get stopped later. So, they've got Yeah, that's all there. We know that they're making 4680s on site.

[00:17:28]What are those for? I mean, you can put them in Model Y's, but they're designed for Optimus, Cyber Cab, and Semi.

[00:17:36]Um, I think it makes perfect sense to make your semis in Berlin, but I think it makes good sense to make your cyber cabs there, but not necessarily. I mean, it shipping something that much smaller is not as costly and complicated as a entire semi.

[00:17:52]>> So, and the import tax on it would be quite reasonable because the cost is quite low. Uh, but I think they would still choose to localize production as they have with everything else. So those I'm confident are coming, but we haven't seen anything that officially confirms it.

[00:18:09]>> Well, the the there is an official confirmation. I believe that Elon or somebody some top exec has said it may have been the guy who runs Berlin said that the the semi will be coming there.

[00:18:22]Uh but there's no groundbreings or >> there's no movement. Until there's movement, we don't always know.

[00:18:27]>> Yeah.

[00:18:28]>> Okay. All right, Brian. Um any last thoughts with regard to this massive increase in uh in sales? Uh >> nope. Uh I will remind folks that uh June 5th and 6th I'll be in Moskegan, Michigan. Come join us for the summer meetup hosted by the Tesla owners club of Michigan in you know on 10:10 is the big event in Austin. Uh tickets are going fast. Get those while you can.

[00:18:52]>> Yeah. And you know I haven't mentioned it yet on on air but uh we also uh this is a Tuesday night. So tomorrow, all things being equal, we will be seeing Starship launch again. So there's a big a big uh exciting opportunity this week.

[00:19:06]>> Yeah. And that's all I got, Randy.

[00:19:09]>> That's all you got? That's [laughter] it. I mean, come on, Brian. I know that I could put the quarter in and we could get another half hour.

[00:19:15]>> You could, but but you're out of quarters. [laughter] Sorry.

[00:19:19]>> So, thank you, Brian, as always. And to all of you out there, it has been great talking to you.