Why Mining Stock Monkey Would Buy Royal Gold Over Franco Nevada

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:02]Welcome to In It to Win It. This is Steve Barten and thank you for tuning in. We are back with Jordan of Mining Stock Monkey. We are going to talk specific companies, what's cheap, what's not, and where the deals are today.

[00:00:15]Jordan, thank you for coming back on the show.

[00:00:18]Happy to be here, Steve.

[00:00:20]Yes, happy to have you. Um, okay, we got a lot of questions here, probably more than we can possibly get to.

[00:00:27]Uh, so let's get right to it. Uh, first off, we've got one on Barrick Gold. So, um, Salt wants to know. He says, "What are Jordan's thoughts on Barrick's current valuation, especially comparing it with other majors?"

[00:00:44]Comparing Barrick to other majors, um, so if we're looking at Barrick, Agnico, and Newmont, the the the big three major gold producers, uh, Barrick is about the same valuation as Newmont. It trades at a discount to Agnico.

[00:01:00]But, I mean, you're paying 12 to 16 times forward free cash flow, regardless of of which one of those you buy. And to me, that that feels pretty risky. Like, the risk reward is is not there for me at this point in time after gold has gone from $1,000 to almost $5,000 over the course of 10 years. Now, if gold goes to $7,000, yeah, you probably have another double in there uh for you. However, if the gold price reverses, then I I think a 75 or 80% loss is a real possibility.

[00:01:38]So, uh, weighing a double against a 75% loss, that's not a risk reward I like.

[00:01:48]Okay. All right. So, not uh not right now on Barrick. Um, B2 Gold, uh, Willie wants to know um, what uh, any B2 Gold updates after the recent earnings and if you think it's a buy or a sell or a hold.

[00:02:08]Yeah, so B2 Gold has disappointed on earnings quarter after quarter after quarter. It's uh, I mean, they they've been saved by by a rising gold price, but there's been a lot of things that have gone wrong with the company. Some has been management's fault, some hasn't been, but uh, anyway, there's a a lot of things that have brought down the potential for your value of of that company. But in Q1 2026, they they finally had a huge blowout quarter that the market loved.

[00:02:35]Uh, when I when I looked midday when it was trading that day after they released earnings, it was up 15 to 18% uh, bouncing right around there. So, it was it was a huge positive move and they finally went to a point where they were not making any money any quarter every quarter. They they weren't adding any cash to their balance sheet. They weren't paying down their debt. Uh, so despite high gold prices, they nothing was happening with the company.

[00:03:02]But then suddenly in Q1 2026, they had something like $300 million of free cash flow. So, it was a huge change.

[00:03:10]So, that that was that was really good.

[00:03:13]However, however, this is the market I think was really excited to see the low all-in sustaining cost, the AISC there.

[00:03:22]However, that was the all-in sustaining cost is based on the number of ounces sold relative to their total sustaining cost in that period. And the number of ounces that B2 Gold produced was a lot lower than the number of ounces they sold. So, if you adjusted the all-in sustaining cost based on the number of ounces that were actually produced, you'd have to add like $320 per ounce to their all-in sustaining cost in Q1.

[00:03:49]And furthermore, they had sustaining costs, sustaining expenditures that didn't happen during the quarter that are going to happen between quarter two and quarter four. So, for those two reasons, you're going to see a lot higher all-in sustaining costs in coming quarters.

[00:04:05]And uh if they don't receive their FeCL3 regional permit in Mali soon, uh they're probably going to miss guidance for the year at that mine. Uh they're they're probably going to be below the midpoint of guidance, maybe even uh at the bottom end of guidance or below guidance at Goose because well, they uh the the ramp-up isn't going great there, and they had a fire at their crushing circuit. So, now they have to rebuild that and order new parts and and things like that, and that's not going to be fixed until sometime in quarter three.

[00:04:33]So, uh yeah, they're they're still they're still dealing with some struggles. I think we're going to see higher costs.

[00:04:38]But, there are some good things coming up. For example, they have this huge gold pre-pay that they're delivering into. So, back in the beginning of 2024, they received about $500 million in exchange they would deliver a certain number of ounces of gold over a period of 12 months starting July 1st, 2025.

[00:04:58]And so, those 12 months ends at the end of June 2026. So, right now is their last quarter of delivering into that gold pre-pay.

[00:05:07]And they have to deliver about 66,000 oz per quarter.

[00:05:12]And this these are ounces that they have to produce, they have to incur all the expenses to produce it, and then they get zero cash for it when they deliver it. So, it's a huge drag on cash flow.

[00:05:23]And once that's done, once that's done at the end of quarter two, starting quarter three, that's going to add about $300 million of of quarterly cash flow to well, the the company's income statement. So, it's going to make a huge difference.

[00:05:42]Who are they delivering that to? Who is it obligated to? I I recall who the who the counterparty is, and then sometimes it's multiple counterparties. That That's not something they really advertise so you'd have to go digging.

[00:05:52]Okay.

[00:05:53]>> [laughter] >> All right. Um he's also asking about Blossom Gold. Have you heard of Blossom Gold?

[00:05:59]No, I I'm not familiar with Blossom.

[00:06:01]Okay.

[00:06:03]Um let's see. Newmont Agnico Eagle earnings. Okay, Joe Johnny is asking thoughts on Newmont and Agnico's earnings and the market's reaction. I thought they're very good but had a poor reaction. Is all the sentiment related to the gold price is other companies?

[00:06:20]For example, Anglo had much better reactions at a time when the gold price gold price was rallying.

[00:06:26]I haven't done a deep dive into their earnings. However, I I do want to say something about it. And that is um near the headline of Newmont's earnings it said, "Hey, we have 1,000 and something." It was very low in the 1,000s all-in sustaining cost, which is very very good these days. Most Most companies are pushing 2,000.

[00:06:49]However, that that all-in sustaining cost was after crediting any revenue from other metals against the cost to produce their gold. So, the copper price was way up. The silver price was way up.

[00:07:06]So, those were credited against their cost of producing their gold, which dropped their all-in sustaining cost from over $1,700 an ounce to about $1,000 an ounce.

[00:07:18]So, while while their their headline number of $1,000 an ounce was lower than their headline number a year ago, um the the real number is more like 1,700 and that's a slight increase year-over-year. And then Newmont's management also mentioned that they expect some increased cost pressures, especially going into quarter two and I uh the market doesn't like to hear that, "Hey, costs are going to increase." So, I I think that's why you you saw a muted reaction to Newmont's earnings, even though the headline numbers were a huge beat.

[00:07:56]Okay.

[00:07:57]Um Royal Gold R wants to know Royal Gold update on Pueblo Viejo, specifically the silver stream delivery time frame.

[00:08:10]Yeah, so for anyone who doesn't know, Royal Gold has a huge gold and silver stream on Barrick and Newmont's Pueblo Viejo mine, but it's it's only on Barrick's portion. So, this This is only regarding Barrick's portion, and there's a there's a thing in their contract where there's a stipulation that if silver recoveries are below a certain certain threshold, that Barrick doesn't have to deliver those if the amount of silver that they actually recover isn't enough to cover the stream.

[00:08:42]So, uh basically, there's been this liability building that Royal Gold is owed uh a certain number of ounces. It's over 2 million ounces at this point by Barrick, but they won't receive those ounces until recoveries until silver recoveries at the mine increase. So, in quarter 4 2025, Barrick was going through a program to uh improve silver recoveries. That They were strictly focused on improving silver recoveries.

[00:09:13]So, I I thought they were going to be able to do that, and then we would start seeing Royal Gold get delivered those deferred ounces, those 2 million and something deferred ounces of silver.

[00:09:24]However, Barrick's silver recovery program didn't work.

[00:09:28]It didn't improve uh recoveries. So, so now we're we're right back where we were before. Uh so, they they think they have a path towards that in the future, but it's looking more like 2029 thing, a 2030 thing, rather than something that's going to happen in 2026.

[00:09:48]Okay. So, not quite as much as silver for Royal Gold as as we're hoping.

[00:09:53]No, correct.

[00:09:55]Okay.

[00:09:56]And Jared wants to know, "I think Royal Gold has bought Great Bear royalties when Kinross starts Great Bear in 2028, doesn't Royal Gold earnings have to explode?"

[00:10:10]Well, so Great Bear is one of many assets that Royal Gold owns, one of many development assets that they own. They have a 2% royalty on this project on Great Bear, and it's probably going to produce in excess of 500,000 oz a year. So, uh call that 10,000 oz. However, there's a buyback clause in there that they can buy back 25% of that royalty. So, really we can expect it to be a 1.5% royalty, or uh what would generate about 7,500 gold equivalent ounces or GEOs per year for Royal Gold. And that will certainly help, and it that will be a great asset for probably uh several decades for Royal Gold.

[00:10:53]However, it it's not the reason that their cash flows are going to increase.

[00:10:58]They have a whole bunch of those projects that are going to come into production. A whole bunch of uh royalties and streams or well, no, I don't think I don't know if there's any streams, but a whole bunch of royalties like that that are are going to come into production over the coming years.

[00:11:12]And so, yeah, uh so that's 7,500 oz per year, but they probably have another 100,000 oz from other projects that will come into production over the next 6 years or so.

[00:11:23]Okay. One of many.

[00:11:27]Uh let's move on to silver.

[00:11:29]We've got uh Rock the Punch. Got to love the uh screen name there.

[00:11:34]>> [laughter] >> He wants to know about Core Mining. He says great podcast. Thanks for taking my question. You're welcome, sir.

[00:11:41]What is Jordan's take on Core Mining?

[00:11:45]Core Mining, I think the valuation is very rich here.

[00:11:50]It's trading for huge multiples and that's based on silver staying at highly elevated levels compared to where they've been compared to where it's been historically. So I think it's a very high risk with limited reward play here at this point.

[00:12:12]And Core also has a terrible history of capital allocation if you go looking back many years. So I would I would call it a low-quality company.

[00:12:23]Okay, sounds like you were not interested.

[00:12:26]Not really.

[00:12:28]>> [laughter] >> Putting it into simple terms here.

[00:12:32]Not on his list. GS wants to know what's your analysis on Silver Crown Royalties?

[00:12:42]I I don't know, but but this is a company that's interesting to me and it's on a a list of companies for me to study. So that's all I have for you there.

[00:12:52]Okay, he's also asking about Honey Badger Silver.

[00:12:56]I I don't have any opinion on that.

[00:12:58]Okay.

[00:13:00]All right, so possibly Silver Crown there GS. Honey Badger, no.

[00:13:04]Dave wants to know This is interesting. If you could only pick one silver stock what would it be?

[00:13:13]It it would probably have to be Wheaton Precious Metals.

[00:13:18]They have a great history of capital deployment. They have a lot of growth.

[00:13:22]They're They're it would appear that they trade at a a premium, but they don't they don't trade at a premium compared to Franco-Nevada for example. They trade at a discount compared to Franco-Nevada and I I think they're a very high-quality company and and you're going to see a lot of growth there. They have quite a bit of exposure to silver and they're they're trying to get more exposure to silver. Uh now I I would have rather bought it a couple of years ago than today uh because the the risk reward definitely isn't nearly as good today as it was then. But even if you bought today, if you held it for the very long term, I I think you're going to make out pretty well.

[00:14:00]Okay. Yeah, I regret selling it.

[00:14:03]>> [laughter] >> I I think I made a double and then uh and then I let it go and I just watched the thing continue going up.

[00:14:10]Um okay.

[00:14:12]HR wants to know about Vizsla. I'm interested in Vizsla. What's going on there? Time is passing and nothing is happening. What do you think um about their situation? Will it continue?

[00:14:24]How expensive is their waiting and doing nothing in this phase?

[00:14:30]I think this is one you're going to have to need a lot more patience with um because ju- just put yourself in their situation. So, they're they're developing a a silver deposit, trying to put a silver deposit into production in Mexico in cartel country.

[00:14:48]And you I don't know how many employees they had on the ground there, but let's say they had 30 employees on the ground there and 10 of them get kidnapped and killed.

[00:14:58]Uh if you were running that company, are you going to be in a hurry to uh redeploy more employees to the ground there?

[00:15:07]Probably not. It's only been 3 months since this happened. Uh and and if you if you were willing to as the manager as the one running the company, how much are you going to have to pay to find quality employees to go take over the jobs of those who were just kidnapped and killed.

[00:15:25]Probably an enormous amount of money.

[00:15:27]So, while while tensions are still high there, while this is fresh in people's minds, I think you're looking at at least a couple of years waiting before they put people on the ground there again.

[00:15:45]I don't think this is something that's going to happen in in 3 months. It's been 3 months so far and I I don't think this is months. I think it's years that you need to look at for for this situation.

[00:15:58]Okay.

[00:15:59]That's an authentic answer. Yeah, that was a sad deal.

[00:16:02]Okay, let's move on to oil and gas.

[00:16:06]Michael wants to know he says, "What other oil stocks do you see value in aside from Devon?"

[00:16:18]You know, I'm I'm still trying to become an expert on oil and gas and I still have a long way to go. I've I've spent a a couple of years trying to learn everything I can and I I now know enough to know how much I don't know.

[00:16:33]So, with that, I'm I'm just in my education phase and I'm I'm not trying to make a lot of bets into oil and gas right now and instead make bets into my education.

[00:16:46]Okay.

[00:16:48]He's also got a follow-up. He says, "Why aren't you more bullish on oil with the current events and global stockpiles rapidly being drawn down to avoid the music stopping?"

[00:17:00]Yeah, that's that's a good question and it's not that I'm not bullish, it's that I'm I'm trying to look forward to 3 months from now, 6 months from now, 2 years from now when when this Iran war's probably distant history and the oil prices have come back down because things have normalized. So, it's it's downside protection rather than not being bullish. Like if if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and and all those shipments of oil remain there, yes, there's going to be drawdowns of inventory in many countries around the world and and there's there's going to be extreme pressures on pricing because it will then be allocated by price.

[00:17:48]Who's willing to pay the most? And the the price could shoot up astronomically in a situation like that. But yeah, my my focus is the downside protection there and and there there's significant downside in a lot of oil stocks once this Iran war ends and and the strait opens again. So, we have to be cognizant of that.

[00:18:12]Yeah. Yeah, I was pulling up with premium subscribers yesterday some charts and we're seeing some some pretty bearish patterns in some of the oil equities. So, there could be something brewing under the surface that that is showing up in the charts, but we don't really know yet.

[00:18:26]Um Okay, what on Devon we talked about last time about them hopefully or possibly hedging on you know, some of these basically what they could do is is they can hedge their bets. So, if you get a runaway on the oil price, they can they can profit from it and maybe lock in some contracts for years going out or now that we got the quarter out how to how did that play out?

[00:18:54]Not how I thought. I got it dead wrong.

[00:18:56]They they seem to have stopped their hedging entirely.

[00:19:01]At least at least after the ConchoResources merger was announced.

[00:19:05]And I I was trying to diagnose why I got this wrong.

[00:19:11]And I I think I think the reason is this.

[00:19:15]I think it's because they're merging with Coterra who has outstanding gas assets in the Marcellus Shale.

[00:19:26]So, these are these are gas assets that have very consistent cash flow. They're very low cost. Uh it it doesn't have really sharp decline rates like uh many other other shale patches. Uh they're much slower decline rates, so the cash flow goes out for for many years. And since it's low cost and the decline rates are significantly lower, this means that those Marcellus gas assets are profitable in just about any gas environment. So, it protects Devon's ability ability to repay debt. It protects their ability to pay their dividend.

[00:20:05]So, it's it's essentially they they merge with a company that provides a natural hedge.

[00:20:12]And I think that's why I got it wrong.

[00:20:15]Okay. Okay. And um with that merger now, as I understand it, you you'll know this better than me, but I I I think basically what they did was they kind of doubled their land package, right? Because they have a lot of uh uh if I'm not mistaken, the land package is kind of like looking at my hand here.

[00:20:33]Like Coterra had the stuff in between my fingers, and Devon had my fingers. So, now that they have all of that, they can just run a line straight across. Is that accurate or To an ex- to an extent, um because yes, yes, they both have assets in the Permian Basin.

[00:20:53]Uh and and some of those assets connect.

[00:20:55]So, when when you have like just a tiny land package, and then uh Coterra has another small land package right next door, well, both of those were going to be hard for them to drill profitably before because they just couldn't do that long of lateral. They They drill down into the shale and then they they drill horizontally, uh sometimes a couple of miles.

[00:21:18]Their Their average lateral is about 2 miles as of the most recent quarter. So, if you if you don't own that ground, you can't You can't drill past there to to my understanding of how that works. So, yeah, instead of it being like this, it's more like Hey, we have four fingers here and and Cotera has this finger.

[00:21:38]Uh But but there there's a there's a lot of ground there still that that's not connected.

[00:21:46]Okay.

[00:21:48]All righty. Um moving on here to some kind of miscellaneous questions is what I labeled them.

[00:21:56]Um Developers, Happy wants to know is it time to buy late-stage developers?

[00:22:04]Uh if we're if we're talking gold developers, it's it certainly could be. Seems like M&A is is picking up a bit. Uh Orion Resources is gone, Rupert Resources is gone, G2 Goldfields is gone.

[00:22:19]Uh so, there there there's been a a lot of uh takeouts happening. So, I mean, if looking into the gold developers, I would be looking at the highest quality.

[00:22:33]I I wouldn't uh be generally attracted to those that are advertising in their sales pitch, "Hey, we're trading at $10 per ounce in the ground." Um because there there's there's typically a very good reason. For example, uh a company is trying to get a a mine permitted or uh get a get deposit permitted to build a mine and it's in it's in Ontario and they have to drain a lake to to build a mine and this lake is a very rare trout habitat.

[00:23:08]Uh so they have to drain a lake that has that's a rare trout habitat and build the mine to to mine underneath that lake.

[00:23:20]I I don't think that's going to happen and and there's a reason that company is trading at $20 per ounce in the ground.

[00:23:28]Okay.

[00:23:29]Be very Selective is what you're saying.

[00:23:31]That G2 one was awesome. I like that one a lot.

[00:23:34]Um okay, Clyde wants to know uh he's got a he's got a who's better here? Who's who's versus um Agnico Eagle or Newmont?

[00:23:46]Uh I would prefer the discount and take Newmont. Newmont has very high-quality assets. They've divested of their lower-quality assets and they're going to be uh paying more love and attention to their those higher-quality assets and they have some some great minds that they're uh uh working on developing like for example the the Red Chris Block Cave. Uh so uh they have a pretty good pipeline ahead of them. I mean Agnico's a great company but I just given the basically 25% discount you get to buy Newmont, I'd prefer the 25% discount uh and take Newmont.

[00:24:21]Okay.

[00:24:22]Franco Nevada or Wheaton Precious Metals?

[00:24:26]Both very high-quality companies. Uh you're not going to go wrong with either. Uh Wheaton's a uh bit cheaper on most metrics and they have a better growth profile so I'm going with Wheaton.

[00:24:39]Okay.

[00:24:40]Equinox or Hecla?

[00:24:43]Uh company I like versus a company I don't like, I'll take Equinox.

[00:24:47]>> [laughter] >> That's an honest answer.

[00:24:50]Um okay, let's see.

[00:24:54]Do you follow uh oh, you don't follow uh Metallium. Okay, so we can leave that one out.

[00:25:01]And your process. So, the cap wants to know uh I've been inspired by your thinking and research process. For someone who wants to learn how to do institutional style mining stock research, what is your step-by-step process?

[00:25:20]Oh, gosh. Um Well, what what I do there's probably 9,999 people out of every 10,000 people would rather watch paint dry than do what I do.

[00:25:34]Uh I I read a lot. I read lots of quarterly reports. I read lots of annual reports.

[00:25:42]Anything I don't know and there's a lot of information in these from uh business terms to accounting and all sorts of stuff and there there's going to be countless things that you don't know. So, uh I would say every time you come across something that you don't understand, figure out what that means. I I mean, this is this has been made easier with with AI.

[00:26:07]Uh for example, if if you don't know what some accounting term means or or you don't understand uh something in the in the balance sheet, well, then you you could just put that into AI and be like, "Hey, I'm looking at Newmont's financials and I see this line in here. What's What's this about?" And it's it's probably going to give you a pretty good answer for that. Uh and I mean, you can you can also learn this from uh reading valuation books and books on accounting and and uh things like that, but you really just have to learn a learn it one thing at a time and after reading hundreds or thousands of these reports, which are very tedious uh for uh there there's a lot of information in them in it. A lot of times it it feels very repetitive, too. Uh but after after reading so many reports with with enough repetitions, repetition beats everything. Uh and uh repetition with many many repetitions, uh you'll learn. Uh I I'm sorry. I don't I don't have a I don't have a great answer for you. I have never really thought about that.

[00:27:10]Well, it sounds like you read through every quarterly and annual report and anything you don't understand, you look up and try to understand and you just after doing that hundreds of times, you start to get good at it.

[00:27:21]And and you also uh when you when you when you read those reports every time and and read try to read everything that they're filing on SEDAR Plus and and things like that, you you get to learn a a lot more about the company than your competition knows.

[00:27:36]So, and and when you learn more than your competition knows, uh that that's when you have an advantage over them.

[00:27:43]Yep, that's how you win.

[00:27:45]Um okay, David has a question on SSR Mining.

[00:27:51]Given the recent disposal of the Copler mine and the strategic review of Hot Madan, how do you see an opportunity there as it become an as it becomes an America's focused producer?

[00:28:05]Yeah, the the management team has talked about how they're they're trying to become an America's focused producer.

[00:28:12]And this this may have stemmed from the fact that at that Çöpler mine, Çöpler is in in Turkey and I think it was a couple of years ago now, probably early 2024 if my memory serves, that they had a landslide there that killed uh nine of their employees.

[00:28:31]Um so, uh after after that happening, I mean, I I don't know the the local situation on the ground there, but I imagine that they have lost a lot of goodwill with the community.

[00:28:47]And they're so that they ended up disposing of that mine that they they sold that mine to somebody, but they they also have this Hod Maden development project in the same country.

[00:28:58]So, uh with with the disaster that happened in at Çöpler with the same company, how much pushback are they are they going to have from government and locals trying to build Hod Maden? Now, it they're they're going in a they're undergoing a strategic review right now to decide what to do with Hod Maden.

[00:29:19]And I'm sure they hate to give it up because it's an outstanding asset and it's going to be one of the lowest cost copper and gold producers in the world.

[00:29:27]So, uh they're they're probably just I imagine in in their board meetings that they're wrestling with it. Like they they want this asset so badly, but uh they they just don't know if if they can or if it's the if it's the best uh use of of their funds and if there's that community and government support for them building a brand new mine after the disaster uh in recent history at Çöpler. So, yeah, it seems like they're transitioning into America's focus, but we'll see what happens with that strategic review of Hod Maden.

[00:30:03]Okay.

[00:30:04]All right, we're going to go a little bit deeper with premium subscribers.

[00:30:07]Wrapping up here, we got one more on Royal Gold. SMS is asking, "Why is Royal Royal Gold so undervalued by the market?

[00:30:17]It seems dramatic. What are we missing?"

[00:30:21]Yeah, so um there's there's some market perceptions that are wrong.

[00:30:27]So, it seems like a lot of investors have this perception that Royal Gold is way smaller than Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals. And while it's true that they're way smaller than Wheaton Precious Metals, uh in in about 2031, they're going to be approximately the same size that Franco is Franco-Nevada is today. They're they're not much smaller than Franco-Nevada.

[00:30:51]Uh, so and and when you get that size, your your G&A and your overhead becomes a much smaller portion of your expenses.

[00:31:01]Uh, it becomes a much smaller portion of revenue. So, you can reinvest a lot more of the revenue you're bringing in.

[00:31:09]Another misperception that the market has is the the market seems to think that they're highly concentrated in in one asset at Mount Milligan.

[00:31:20]And while this used to be true, it's it's no longer true. In the in quarter one, I I think if I recall correctly, Mount Milligan accounted for about 15% of the revenue.

[00:31:32]And that's that's their biggest asset.

[00:31:34]Uh, I I actually believe they're the most diversified of uh, well, any of the five biggest royalty and streaming precious metals royalty and streaming companies.

[00:31:45]Because well, yeah, all all of them have uh, their their major assets. So, there's this perception that they don't have diversification, which they do.

[00:31:53]They have They're they're they're highly diversified.

[00:31:56]There's also this misperception that they don't have growth. Now, they they recently finally put out five-year guidance. So, this this this perception will probably change soon. And this isn't This is another perception that's wrong. They have enormous growth in 2026 and then quite a bit of growth out through 2030 and then uh, more extreme growth in 2031 um, based on assets that are mostly already bought and paid for.

[00:32:25]So, you have those market perceptions that are wrong.

[00:32:28]Um, and uh, I mean, it's a lot of work to study these companies. But the the market will figure this out eventually.

[00:32:35]Uh, Uh, and when it does the the share price is going to go up. At least at least that's what I'm betting on.

[00:32:41]And what else? Well, uh, we were we were just talking about SSR Mining and Hod Maden. Well, Royal Gold actually owns a 30% equity interest in Hod Maden, which is different from Royal's normal business model. Royal's normal business model is to pay an upfront fee in exchange for a certain amount of gold or silver, uh, or in some cases some other metals that that mine produces, typically for the life of the mine. So, it's just upfront capital and then all the risk is on the operator. Uh, and they generally don't have to contribute any more capital.

[00:33:18]But, owning a 30% interest in Hod Maden, they have to fund 30% of any of development costs, 30% of any mine building costs, and then once the mine is built, they get 30% of the profits.

[00:33:32]And if you if you look at it based on uh, what production is going to be like in the first few years of the of the mine life, that's uh, 30% of of that is something like 70,000, 75,000 gold equivalent ounces a year.

[00:33:50]And this is on what's going to be one of the most profitable gold and copper mines in the world. And when Sandstorm Sandstorm Gold originally bought this equity interest, and their argument for that was, "Hey, this is this is basically like a stream because the margins are going to be so huge because it's so high grade, and uh, it has it has such a large like net present value to the amount you need to spend to build the mine that it it's essentially like buying a stream because you have the huge margins that a stream gets like what all of Wheaton Precious Metals assets." And as a matter of fact, it should be even higher margins than Wheaton Precious Streams because let's say they have 80% margins and they're paying 20% of the gold price on $5,000 gold, they're paying $1,000 per ounce.

[00:34:46]Well, Hod Maden in a brand new 2026 feasibility study is said to have all-in sustaining cost for gold of about $600 per ounce. So, I mean, it's even higher margins than what Wheaton Precious Metals house, for example. But But yeah, the the market, a lot of people, a lot of investors in the royalty and streaming space don't like that risk. And Royal Gold has indicated that, "Hey, we're going to work to turn this equity interest into a stream or royalty or perhaps divest of it all together, but they they probably don't want to do that. That would probably be their their last resort." But it it creates some uncertainty in the market, and the the market doesn't necessarily like that that risk in owning Hod Maden.

[00:35:35]But 30% of the development cost for building Hod Maden is going to be maybe 10% of Royal Gold's monthly cash flow. So, I mean, that they'd easily be able to afford it. It's That's no big deal at all.

[00:35:50]So, and why why else is the market discounting Royal Gold? Why is it trading at a a discount to peers? Not just bigger peers, but smaller peers, too. They're trading at a discount to Triple Flag Precious Metals and Osisko or well, OR Royalties now.

[00:36:09]And both OR Royalties and Triple Flag Precious Metals are significantly smaller companies. Those Those are around 100,000 GEOs per year. Royal Gold is at about 400,000 GEOs per year or almost there. Royal Gold's about four times the size, yet they're trading at a discount to these much smaller companies.

[00:36:27]I think a major reason for this is that they, over the past 5 years or so, they've had a declining profile of the number of GEOs they're bringing in each year.

[00:36:42]And the market doesn't like to see a declining business.

[00:36:47]So, I I I think Royal's multiples have been punished because over over the past several years that the market has has seen them producing less GEOs every year. Uh or at least in in a general decline. But, that reverses in 2026. That that's that's in the past. So, so now it changes and I think going forward the market is going to see, "Oh, wow, suddenly they're producing a lot more and oh, they're going to keep growing and they're going to keep growing after that." Um and that's with assets they've already bought and paid for for the most part. And uh then they're going to redeploy their cash flow and keep growing after that. So, I I think those are some of the reasons why Royal Gold are trading is trading at a discount.

[00:37:32]Some are market misperceptions that are wrong.

[00:37:36]And some things are things that are are going to change in the future like when they figure out the situation with Hod Maden and when the market realizes, "Oh, there's actually going to be a lot of growth coming." And the market realizes, "Oh, they're actually the most diversified of any royalty company." And and things like that.

[00:37:56]Oh, that Jordan is exactly why your newsletter is my favorite out of all the newsletters that I subscribe to. Uh you have a special offer for our viewers here today. Go ahead and tell them what they can expect if they sign up with you at Mining Stock Monkey.

[00:38:11]Yeah, so if you like the way I think, researching mining stocks is what I do full-time. Uh and if you would like some help navigating the markets and learning what I'm buying and selling with my own money, uh consider signing up for my research service.

[00:38:24]You know, I offer two services.

[00:38:26]One is Mining Stock Monkey Speculator.

[00:38:28]This is like lower liquidity plays, higher risk plays, and it's several thousand dollars a year. I actually don't recommend that for most people. I For most people, I I recommend the more affordable Mining Stock Monkey VIP, which is under a thousand dollars per year. And I was recently looking at my data and I I realized that 90% of people who sign up for an annual subscription end up re-subscribing for a second year. And that's in an industry where I I believe there's about a 50% re-subscriber rate.

[00:39:02]Uh so, that tells me that I want to incentivize you to sign up for an annual subscription.

[00:39:08]So, what I'm going to offer you is 25% off for your first year on an annual subscription. And everybody who signs up gets a 30-day money-back guarantee.

[00:39:19]However, if you choose an annual subscription, I'm going to triple your money-back guarantee and give you 90 days to try out the service risk-free instead. So, if that sounds good to you, for the first 25 people who sign up, um going to give you 25% off your first year, but this is limited to the first 25 or first 48 hours, uh whichever comes first.

[00:39:40]So, uh Steve will put a link, I think, down into the description and comments below if that interests you.

[00:39:45]Yes, thank you very much, Jordan. I always appreciate your you taking your time. Uh I really appreciate all the work and time and effort that you put into the newsletter.

[00:39:55]It just gives you so much more conviction uh when you click the buy button after reading your article and your write-up on it. So, keep up the good work. Um thank you for the gift to to our viewers. And uh thanks for coming back on the show.

[00:40:09]Thanks for having me back on. Let's do it again soon. Before you go, Jordan and I continue this conversation in the premium episode. We dig into copper, recession risk, and why Jordan is careful about buying producers at this point in the cycle. We also talk about how royalties and streams may offer a safer way to get exposure to copper without taking on the same risks as the miners themselves. Plus, we get into nickel, platinum, agriculture, fertilizer, and how geopolitical disruptions could ripple through these markets. So, where's the real risk right now? Where should investors be careful?

[00:40:44]And where could the next major opportunity be hiding?

[00:40:47]Join us in the premium and we'll dig into all of that next. Thank you for being here. Have a wonderful rest of your day and happy trading.

[00:40:56]For more content like this, check out these videos right here.