Huawei's Tau Scaling Law: Is the "EUV Killer" Real?

本站添加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]The fact that we are stacking logic on logic has two implications. The first one is it is entirely centered around hybrid bonding because that is the secret sauce that allows them to increase transistor density.

[00:00:18]>> Welcome to another semi-doped episode.

[00:00:20]I'm Austin Lines with Chip Strat and with me is Vic Shaker from Vick's newsletter. Hey Vic, what's up?

[00:00:26]>> Yeah, how's it going?

[00:00:28]>> It's going well.

[00:00:30]Yeah, it's a nice time to chat. We we usually do this later in the week. So, usually we record on a Thursday, but today we're like doing Tuesday. And it's perfect because we were actually going to talk about something else, but then there is this paper that dropped from Huawei that said something to the effect of, "Oh, we're bypassing EUV. We're going to be in like TSMC's 14 anstrom equivalent by 2031 and everything online is all at once. Uh this is hitting hitting me in my face saying Huawei has you know circumvented EUV ASML is dead in the water. US dominance is gone and leading edge nodes. I mean at least that's the sentiment I get and considering we recorded the deep dive on lithography last week. So, I know I I texted you and be like, "Okay, like, can we just talk about this early this week because it's so fresh in my mind, we should just do this."

[00:01:29]>> Yes. Yes. So, this is perfect. Let's talk about it. And in fact, it was Memorial Day in the United States yesterday, so I was like hardly even online, but the internet was blowing up.

[00:01:37]So, I'm I'm glad that you text me. I'm glad that you read it. I look forward to learning from you through this conversation. And I will say I wonder how um the United States government, anyone in those circles, like the uh commerce department stuff, how they're feeling because of course lithography is e EUV lithography is the big geopolitical chip on the table. Um and I bet some of them have to be freaking out if they heard or saw an X like, "Oh yeah, that you know what you used for uh controls is now rendered useless." They have to be also like, "Wait a minute. Is this real or is this marketing? So that's the goal of this is to unpack what actually did Huawei announce and was the marketing speak and the interpretation different than the technical paper and the and the technical innovations here.

[00:02:28]>> Yeah. So uh we wrote this down um in the semi-doped uh newsletter. Uh this is kind of where our first reactions go. So if you're not signed up to that, you know, uh as the listener, you should.

[00:02:41]It's it's free on Substack. You should just go to semi-dop.com and just like sign up because whatever news comes our way, we just try to like write up quickly the first thought that comes to mind. Usually it's the most natural response. But uh yeah, after that um I think I got a few questions saying, "Hey, what do you think of this piece of news?" Uh and then I responded and said, "Yeah, um this is really interesting that you know Huawei is has this approach of trying to improve performance of chips overall but without trying to go to the you know the fancy machines which they can't get a hold of because they're all under export control. So without much ado, I think we should first explain what the whole claim was. So there is this conference uh called ISCAS 2026 that I believe is being held in Shanghai uh this week and um Hey Tingbo who is like a Huawei director and the head of high silicon which is the chip arm of Huawei uh he I think gave a talk. So was that I did not hear the talk. Do you know if hating is a he or a she? Because I might totally get this wrong.

[00:03:53]>> Um I saw a picture of a woman. So >> okay >> I think the she gave whoever gave the talk was a woman I'm pretty sure.

[00:04:00]>> Okay. Okay. I'm glad I asked but uh anyway the point is the whole idea is that um there is this new guiding principle called the toao scaling law and this the spiel is at least that it's going to replace m's law because you know time the the whole um over time m's law has stopped scaling and it's we've been you know squeaking along ever since we hit kind of the EUV nodes below 7 nanometer and the whole idea is like okay let's look at something else and so this is where I actually like this framing actually the toao scaling law has a much more fundamental scaling that I truly appreciate and I need to explain why why this toao thing first of all to is a measure of delay uh it could be delay on the chip it could be delay through the interconnect it could be delay between racks it could be delay I don't know on the between entire data centers or anything so The whole idea of basically going to smaller transistors was essentially to minimize this delay.

[00:05:05]The smaller you made a transistor, the delay got you know lesser from the input to the output of the transistor and that only meant it went faster. So for the longest time the only way to make things go faster was to reduce the delay. So Huawei's interpretation is to stop thinking about dimensions of the transistor which they really can't scale without EUV machines. Uh but why not go down one further level and ask what was the transistor solving anyway? And the answer was delay. So then the next logical question is okay we can't improve the transistor delay anymore because we don't have the machines. So where else can we improve the delay?

[00:05:54]Because it's not like delay comes only from the chip or the GPU or the CPU whatever it is delay is everywhere.

[00:06:00]Delay is in software. Delay is in interconnects and how you hook up memory. What memory protocols and handshakes you do. So they were like okay let's reinvent everything and think of this from a whole system perspective.

[00:06:13]So this is what they call their tow scaling law. We will now scale down TOAO at the system level. Not so much at the transistor level that has been done historically but over the entire system.

[00:06:24]It could be a phone to begin with or an entire AI data center. We are now scaling down delay. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, so so summarizing it, they're basically saying, hey, uh, Moore's law is dead. And by the way, even if it's not dead, we can't shrink transistors anyway because we can't get our hands on EUV tools. So if we want to continue to increase performance and we can't reduce the geometric footprint of each transistor, how can we increase performance? And so they zoomed out and said, well, wait a minute, m maybe the geometric scaling of transistors was actually ultimately about reducing delay. And so then they're trying to reorient around tow this time delay resistance capacitance uh product and say okay fine we we don't have the we have one knob that we can't turn but what are all the other knobs that we could turn to continue to reduce delay and I do like the point of not just delay at the transistor level but extreme co-op optimization or STCO DTCO which we could talk about um I saw you had a tweet about this um which is just saying how can we look up and down the whole stack from transistors and devices to circuits to systems to racks to interconnects to the whole data center to software on top of it and how can we try to co-optimize amongst all of those.

[00:07:48]Yeah. So whenever they say this is kind of a law uh it's always nice to see some equation and I read the whole paper actually uh it's an easy read for a paper actually and they had this nice equation which says the toao of the transistor toao of the system is basically the delay through the transistor delay through the circuit uh delay through the chip and delay through the system right and what they want to do at every subsequent generation like the tow of the next generation is the tow at this generation divided by some factor alpha where they think that that alpha factor is like um 1.3x uh a year for mobile and 1.5x for auto and maybe even 10x for AI workloads. So think about that like optimizing across the system. They are thinking that they can reduce the delay by 10x for AI workloads. That is a significant improvement and that is why they feel like um they can get a 1.4 nanometer class performance by tweaking other parts of the system not just the transistor.

[00:08:58]>> Okay. So this law like you know most of these laws are not actual physical laws but they're observations. So they must have had in their paper were they showing just like chips that they created and measured these constants and and that's where they're seeing the scaling or where where did this data come from in this like observ empirical observation?

[00:09:20]It's not anywhere I think. So they have some silicon. Okay. So let's get to that in a bit. But their optimizations were interesting because they happen basically across what from what I could tell across three dimensions. The first dimension was that they just want to make transistor density more, right?

[00:09:40]That's the whole thing that EUV does.

[00:09:42]EUV lets you pack in more transistors per unit area of the chip by making transistors smaller. So they stepped back and like asked, okay, we can't make transistors smaller. So, how do we scale up the number of transistors in a chip?

[00:09:57]So, they decided, okay, fine. We'll just take two chips and stack them one on top of the other >> and like hybrid bond it. Hybrid bonding is a packaging technique that's very interesting because you can have like millions of connections between these two logic chips and uh the way it works is that you just heat them and like put pressure and they literally stick to each other in the most simplest way.

[00:10:19]That's what hybrid bonding is. So you can have like very very very fine uh connections that are like closely spaced like the pitch between connections is something like 1.5 micron across a massive area of a chip. Think about that right. So hybrid bonding is a very fine uh pitch packaging technology which is probably the most advanced packaging technology you can get. So their first dimension was okay let's just stack two chips together. So in the space of one chip we get now two chips. Hooray. You know, that's one way to get transistor density. H that's a kind of cheating because now you also use two times the silicon area because you got to sandwich two wafers together, but you know, considering the cost of EUV, which we discussed in the last podcast episode, uh maybe it's not a big deal. Just saying.

[00:11:05]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Totally. Okay. So there, so you're saying they can't so they've got a chip, they can't increase the transistor density because they're at their fundamental limits with DUV and multiattering and whatnot. And and historically, by the way, how um the industry is kind of quoteunquote getting around Moors law is like systems of chips, you know, so it's like, oh, whether you're using chiplets or whatever, so it's like, okay, well, let's use like 2.5D integration. Let's put chips next to each other and then we'll have coas, you know, or interposers and connecting things. Um but but you're saying that Huawei said, "Oh, no, wait a minute. Well, what if we like instead of putting those transistors far apart and have increased delay because now you we've got to route between them. What if we just try to decrease the delay by stacking them in three dimensions to sort of increase the the density if you will in a unit volume really?

[00:11:57]>> Yeah, they call it logic folding.

[00:12:00]>> Okay. uh which is a nice name but it's really if you think of it no different I feel compared to what Intel foros is >> or how uh AMD stacked SRAMM with vcash I guess it's not technically you know logic tologic stacking when you're talking about AMD's vcash because they put SRAM on top of a logic wafer to boost like L3 cache on it but in principle yeah they hybrid bonded a SRAMM wafer onto a ch a logic chip and that's kind of what this is all about.

[00:12:34]So logic to logic stacking is is not not easy right because what how we going to get heat out of this thing that's one one example like thermals are quite challenging so there are a lot of challenges to doing this stuff actually >> and you know you got to align it like think about it like the the connections are like 1.5 micron pitch actually is ridiculously tiny and so the alignment between the bonds needs to be perfect and hybrid bonding itself isn't is a crazy packaging technology because the surface Notice that your bonding needs to be very flat and defect free and all that because when you squeeze it together there's like a dust particle between the two of them or whatever like you know what happens like now you've got an open connection >> between the two you know sandwich chips and that's bad. So it's it's a challenging process and that's the whole question is like >> does um China actually have the equipment to do this? Yeah funnily they do. do they do because for two reasons.

[00:13:34]One they do have this expertise because they have been doing uh memory stacking for NAND at YMTC using waferto- wafer stacking and hybrid bonding of chips.

[00:13:47]That's how NAND chips work. They have even done hundreds of layers of NAND. Um so they are familiar with it but memory is little bit of an easier problem because memory has so much redundancy that you can kind of route around stuff like have uh failovers in the memory architecture and stuff like that. So stacking is a different problem in memory than it is for logic. Stacking two GPUs on top of each other is a significantly harder problem than trying to stack 400 layers of NAND memory you know.

[00:14:18]>> Totally totally. So okay so you're saying historically stacking things is not a new concept.

[00:14:27]Even stacking logic is not necessarily a new concept but normally when we're stacking first like let's say logic on an interposer that interposer is passive. Um so it's it's not as big of a deal. You're just routing through it.

[00:14:40]And then even if you're stacking like memory on logic, um that's a little or and of course memory and NAND and HBM, a lot of these things are already three-dimensional. So we're already used to figuring out how to create things in three dimensions and stack them. But it is a bit of a different beast when we stack logic on top of logic because they're both active, they're both powered, they're both giving off thermals, and you have to make sure all the connections are correct. And there's like today the way these things are built there's not this built-in redundancy where like oh if something fails just route around it. Um but conceptually it's still to the industry logic on logic is not a new thing that Huawei has invented.

[00:15:24]>> No it's not and it's been around in in in principle. Uh so that's what makes it interesting like it's a challenging problem and it's it's impressive that they do have silicon that uh they it's called the kirin 2026 this is a mobile SOC processor uh and they actually have this implemented um and they have plans to keep going uh in the future so they've already you know let's say I don't know how the paper has all these numbers oh yeah here I have them I think yeah they they've managed to like double their transition account. Yeah, obviously by stacking and uh so they they kind of jump nodes in in principle because you know we spoke about this there is no such thing as like five nanometers or two nanometers anymore because the transistor architectures have changed. So this is just a nomenclature now anyway. So you can go to the same class node by doing other things like gate all around was one of those other things like you could do to go to two nanometers.

[00:16:27]So Huawei's approach is like yeah we'll just stack transistors and we'll get the same transistor you know density. Um, in principle this is like you know C FET maybe like a complimentary FET where people were like why should I put an N MOS and a COS NOS and a POS transistor next to each other >> cuz for a for a COS a complimentary MOS you require PT type and N type transistors what if I put them on top of each other you know I can save space so this is along the same inspired lines not exactly the same thing but basically you can why don't why not put a whole transistor wafer on top and stack them like that and you can jump generations forward. So this is they've done it actually and this is very impressive engineering. All kudos to them. I'm not going to take away from their engineering achievement here. So that is the whole logic stacking aspect of it.

[00:17:17]There are two more things that I think are very useful but I want to get to that after you ask me this question.

[00:17:23]>> Yes, thank you for letting me graciously interrupt. Um, so on the logic stacking, so one of the things this reminds me of, of course, is DeepSeek in that they could not get enough compute. They could not get enough compute and enough like memory bandwidth with the chips that they were given. Allegedly, okay, maybe they did find their way to some H100s, but allegedly they had these strip down which caused um the Deep Seek team to have to innovate in other dimensions because they were constrained on one.

[00:17:55]And so then they got to be the first to think deeply about other things like you know how do we offload some communication overlap some communication and compute do other little tricks so that we still unlock the right performance and so what I'm thinking about is okay if Huawei is constrained to not use um EUV and therefore they're thinking about like okay how can we reduce delay in other parts of our system and one of them is it's forcing them to go to logic to logic stack hacking maybe sooner than the rest of the industry feels that they have to. My question is who is manufacturing it and is this giving them an advantage in just getting more practice manufacturing logic on logic? Like will they be able to sort of run ahead a little bit because they are forced to build this for their customer sooner than say a TSMC?

[00:18:48]>> Yes. Um, this brings actually it's a good question and I'm glad you asked this now before I went on to talk about something else because the fact that we are stacking logic on logic has two implications. The first one is it is entirely centered around hybrid bonding because that is the secret sauce that allows them to increase transistor density. Um, so you can increase the density two times. Can you stack it three times? I don't know. Can you stack it four times? I don't know. Like, so what is the limit on hybrid bonding here? How many layers? That's something I don't know. But remember, it gets like extremely difficult because um if you are stacking logic on logic, you would I think you would want to do die to wafer stacking, not wafer to wafer stacking because you will get wrecked on yield. you know as it is these logic chips are kind of big and yield is such an important thing because you know you don't get all that much um as people imagine especially at the very cutting edge but maybe 7 nanometer nodes is okay so that is one aspect of it that it's entirely based on hybrid bonding and the question is are they capable of it and the answer to that is at this point uh memory to memory wafer was all like so memory stacking is all like wafer to wafer but logic needs die to wafer and that is kind of new even to like bezi and these companies that specialize in hybrid bonding and even they have pro product releases that are like very recent okay so die to wafer bonding in logic chips is very cutting edge and luckily from what I was looking at this there is no export restriction uh on bond hybrid bonding machines you have extremely high limitations on what you can do in EUV but not so much on hybrid bonding machines so that's that's that's one thing so they do have the machines that they can do this with and if you look at like Bezy's business 35% of all their business is actually China based if you see the last quarter so that is actually a a large fraction of their machines actually do go to China so I'm pretty sure they've stacked up on some bezy machines before they let this cat out of the bag. Because if you already has a have a silicon piece of silicon that's stacked up you and and working as in the Kirin mobile SOC's, you can believe that they've been working on this for years. Okay. This is not an overnight achievement.

[00:21:30]>> Sure. Sure. So, you're saying Smick is the manufacturer here and they can't get EUV machines, but they can get hybrid bonding machines and hybrid bonding is the secret sauce here to logic stacking.

[00:21:43]So, do you think that someone's going to try to go say now you can't buy hybrid bonding equipment anymore?

[00:21:51]>> So, Huawei never said it's smick by the way. Everybody assumed it is.

[00:21:55]>> Okay. Okay. because it's a reasonable assumption and the stock went up and all that which is cool but uh and I don't think it's smick who will do the stacking aspect of it either because there are specialized people uh in packaging in China um who's whose names we don't have we shouldn't get into I I I'm writing an article on Substack on this so all those details will be on there but that there is another company that will do this the hybrid bonding because there is a whole learning curve on learning to do hybrid bonding. So there are companies who have patents just on hybrid bonding and that is something that is not easy to do. So that's a separate skill set. China is working on that as well.

[00:22:38]>> So that's the one important thing is that >> it's all hybrid bonding based and uh the next question is like okay does China have any local hybrid bonding machines?

[00:22:48]The answer is uh yes they do uh but I don't think that they are in the same level of sophistication there is um for you know in their wafer to wafer bonding for example so that is something they still rely on bezi and to answer your question yes so they they can impose restrictions on it on China I I presume um but it really comes down that if they can get to do EV group uh wafer to wafer bonding there is a company called EV group which is in an Austria based company and they are not in this this axis of like export restrictions that you know Bezi is in because Bezi is an is a Netherlands-based company and you know they're in the same boat as ASML and stuff like that. So this these countries have a lot of export restrictions, but if they can do wafer to wafer bonding, who knows? Maybe they don't are not subject to export restrictions because Austria is not part of this thing.

[00:23:53]>> Yeah. Well, so okay, I did not expect that this conversation would get so much into hybrid bonding. So that's cool. And I'm like, I need to go learn more about hybrid bonding in the market and who all the competitors are. Um, and then two, yes, these poor European countries, they're like, we invented something.

[00:24:09]we're awesome at wait for wait for hybrid bonding and then you know they're going to get caught up in the crossfire of geopolitics. You know the one thing is I got I anticipate is like oh wait if if China can't do EUV is AML ASML affected by this and this news of to scaling no because first of all they were never buying EUV machines from ASML they can't okay so there's never a business to begin with secondly I will argue that this is actually good for ASML because remember now they have to make two wafers using deep ultraviolet uh you know DUV for every transistor. So they need more DUV machines which is a positive for I would say SML, right?

[00:24:53]>> There you go. I like it. That's a positive spin.

[00:24:56]>> Yeah, that's a positive spin on it. Uh so so that's the whole thing about uh you know how this whole logic thing works.

[00:25:04]>> Okay, so then really quick logic to logic. Maybe last thing we're talking about uh companies who build the die and other companies that package them. It's kind of like the front end and the back end. Um, of course, Intel Foundry can do both. So, they can make the wafers, they can also do the advanced packaging. And you mentioned Intel Faros Direct. Um, so could you say like 10 more seconds on Faros and if this is a direction that Intel foundry could support with the logic on logic stacking and packaging.

[00:25:36]>> Yeah. Uh, I don't see why not. That is essentially what Intel for is as far as I understand it. And what this shows is that this is the other thing I wanted to mention. Um it comes to me now that you asked the question. uh is basically there is no reason that any US fab like Intel or anybody else like TSMC shouldn't start stacking wafers now because if you stack a 7 nanometer wafer and then you get to scaling to work imagine what will happen when you stack a 5 nanometer wafer or a 3 nanometer process node or a 2 nanometer process node you're going to you know leapfrog past what uh China can do with Tao scaling. So they may be able to catch up but what this will do now is drive the ability to do hybrid bonding uh in the advanced EUV nodes because why not it it's not an overnight thing. It's a very complicated thing to do and but it you know think of it long term if you can stack two nanometer node wafers that is an an amazing amount of compute in a small area and uh we may get to see FET before that maybe we don't need it we may do hybrid bonding of gate around FETSS before CfET shows up don't know or we may hybrid bond CF fet wafers together ultimate the ultimate density move.

[00:27:08]>> Totally. We should do it all, right?

[00:27:09]Like the front-end folks should keep working on the transistor innovations and the packaging folks should keep improving stacking and hybrid bonding and then slam it all together. And but I do agree with your point, which is like, okay, let's say I'm like, oh, I can do a billion transistors in this little area now. I can stack them so I get two billion. And then you're like, oh, well, I'm on an advanced node and I can do 1.5 billion transistors in the same area.

[00:27:31]And now I stack it. Now I have three billion transistors. Right. So it compounds totally. Yeah. So the whole tow scaling thing is not a I will replace EUV technology and leapfrog around you without the right tools. It is a temporary measure where yes you can bump up the performance of silicon uh with this technique. But if the people who are EUVabled do start doing the same thing and they will because that's how the industry works. they're going to sit down and not do something about it. Uh then you know the gap widens. It doesn't narrow. The gap widens. That's a good thing.

[00:28:13]>> Yes. And maybe to make the point yet a third time if someone after Huawei's big tow scaling announcement if someone came to that to their silicon manufacturer whoever that is and said would you like EUV as well? I'm sure Huawei would say sounds great.

[00:28:29]>> Let's have that and to scaling.

[00:28:31]>> Yes. Exactly. That's what you do right.

[00:28:33]that's the logical thing to do. So yeah, absolutely. So that's the whole that's the whole aspect about logic uh folding and that is mostly the discussion that is going on here. But there uh their paper actually talks about a few other dimensions that at least is worth mentioning. Um and that is basically what they call uh the unified bus for memory. So because they say that look if you have all these different memory standards talking to each other and then you have to have all these handshakes and converters and gearboxes and all of this stuff that adds latency uh then you know you're wasting cycles here. Okay, you're wasting towel. Don't waste what we will do is we'll have a universal language which everything in the rack or the system or the data center I don't know the earth if you could will all speak the same language so that there's no like translations happening and so that is one way to scale down the entire thing uh the delay and speed up stuff.

[00:29:40]It's a very good one. I mean I love it right. It's a it's a very good thing to do anyway regardless of whether you have EOE or not.

[00:29:49]>> Totally. Totally. So, I mean, isn't that ultimately like weren't we trying to do that with like RDMA and things and just say like how do we make it so that GPUs can communicate with other GPUs to talk share their memory directly without so many handshakes? I mean, was the industry already on this path and does this just speed it up and say, "Hey, there's more latency to get rid of."

[00:30:11]>> Exactly. That's that's the whole point.

[00:30:12]The industry has been there already.

[00:30:14]Again, this is not a new concept, >> you know.

[00:30:17]>> Mhm. Just a different prioritization.

[00:30:20]>> Yeah. Exactly. When Jensen talks about extreme code design, I mean, what do you think he's thinking about? He This is what he's saying, right? Don't uh just think about one thing like memory in isolation and work with your own standard and when you try to plug it into a system, it has to talk a different language and now everybody's like, "Oh, can you convert this language to that language?" And don't do that.

[00:30:39]Let's look at the whole thing as one picture and then optimize everything for that you know system level optimization.

[00:30:45]So this is this is the you know STCO argument or you can call it extreme code design whatever fancy word you you you want to use to scaling seems like the fanciest word I've heard yet.

[00:31:00]>> Yeah, very good. Yeah, their marketing folks did great. So yes, you may have heard the term STCO system technology co-optimization. Jensen took it up a notch with extreme code design and now Huawei is trying to one up with tow scaling which I mean it does sound pretty sweet.

[00:31:17]>> It is pretty sweet. It is pretty sweet.

[00:31:19]>> Yeah. You know one other thing they want to save tow on is uh networking because they are like why don't I just do near packaged optics and eliminate DSPs from the entire system if possible. DSPs are terrible for latency. They are towel killers, you know. DSP is the towiller. Like, you know, like fear is the mind killer in Dune. If you've ever read the books, >> DSP is the towiller. Uh yeah, because you know, you have to wait for all the bits to arrive and then you have to wait for the parity bits to come and then DSPs look at it and like, oh, are these bits correct? Oh, they're not correct.

[00:31:57]Cool. Then I have to correct for the error and then does all this computation. You need like a leading edge node to do this DSP stuff. Sucks power. sucks latency and they want to do away with it. They're like just get rid of, you know, DSPs. Don't use all this pluggable stuff. Use as much as close as you can to CPO, which is like maybe near packaged optics. Maybe you don't. Maybe they'll they'll try to package the optical engine right on top of this stack.

[00:32:26]>> Stack it up.

[00:32:27]>> Let's go.

[00:32:27]>> Logic folded logic, whatever. Yeah, I don't know. But anyway, at least in the near term, they can put the optical engine as close as possible to the actual compute silicon. That's one way to reduce cycles. So they're looking at all of this stuff. Obviously, you can do software optimizations, all that kind of stuff. So at the system level, they want to squeeze as much performance as possible, which is the only logical thing you do when you don't have access to leading edge silicon. What do you do?

[00:32:53]You do everything else.

[00:32:54]>> Exactly.

[00:32:55]>> That's what scaling is.

[00:32:57]>> Okay. Gotcha. Gotcha. Okay. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Of course, you know, NPO and CPO make a ton of sense. Everything comes with trade-offs, though. So, there's the the whole like, does the uh supply chain support these things? Are they ready for it? Can they build it reliably? Do you have multiple sources?

[00:33:17]So, I think that's, you know, it it feels a little bit academic in that on one hand, like anyone could sit down and look at a system and just say, what are all the different ways we could wave a magic wand to reduce towel? Um I don't know if they talked about like all the practical bits in the paper or or if this was more of just like whiteboarding out where the bottom >> very high level. It is interesting that they have some silicon to show for it which I love but it's also a lot of like highlevel handwavy equationy stuff. It's not very complicated equations. You can read the paper. It's it's online you know you can find it. It's not a very complex paper. It's very marketing like, but uh it's just it's a good read cuz I think >> it is a it's another knob the industry hasn't entirely paid attention to. I think we're getting there and this is one of those signs, right? We we realize that we need more speed. We realize co-ackaged optics is coming along. We realize that memory bottlenecks are the biggest problem.

[00:34:19]It's not compute flops. its memory and the interconnect that is really holding back everything now and this is the next step like okay how do we squeeze and make uh you know active silicon in CPUs GPUs or whatever that is more dense and that the insane way to do it is like start stacking them and hybrid bonding them but you know this whole thing is insane so what's new AI is insane to begin with so what's new >> totally totally yes never before right have we tried to co-optimize on such a grand scale and such a miniature scale and so I do like looking at a different constraint to optimize around up and down. So I guess maybe final takeaways like what does this mean and you kind of alluded to it before like what does this mean for everyone else for TSMC for ASML are are there other than the fact that they're not dead and EUV is not going away um are there any other takeaways?

[00:35:18]I don't have too many unless there is something that comes up that I haven't thought about but whatever I thought about I already said in the sense as a broad summary it's just like I think going to stacking chips is a positive for ASML because you need more machines to make more uh chips for the same you know product need to make two times as many wafers which is a good thing. The other thing is that you will see most of the industry now starting to optimize across the entire stack. That's already happening. Nothing new about that. Uh and then you I'm guessing that we will start seeing some activity around stacking up wafers. Maybe somebody's going to try to, you know, use Intel for kind of try to stack GPUs, stack GPUs. I don't know. That's just a guess. But yeah, I think you know once Huawei talks about this logic folding idea, more people are going to do it and that's a good thing. Got to try more complicated stuff. That's how we move ahead.

[00:36:20]>> Totally.

[00:36:21]>> I guess what's coming to mind to me for obviously this is bullish advanced packaging because it's just more complicated connections >> and then um also maybe bullish EDA and like multifysics. Oh my god, great point. Actually, that's a great takeaway. Yeah.

[00:36:41]>> Yep. So, we we're basically at time, so I won't get into it too much, but really quick at a high level, I guess where I'm thinking is like, okay, now this is a threedimensional problem that involves thermals, it involves mechanical stress, it involves electricity, it involves optics potentially if you're talking near uh NPO, CPO. And so, this becomes more and more of a challenge. I think this of course reminds me of like synopsis and sits multifysics engine of just like it's going to be less and less of like the silicon guy does this thing and the packaging guy does that thing and the thermals guy does that thing but all of it needs to be brought together to figure out how do we stack logic on logic and remove the heat and still meet time enclosure and still have reliability and so on.

[00:37:25]>> Yes, it is hard enough. EDA is a hard enough problem already where we are on single layer transistors and you know how you scale them up uh to make the GPUs they are today there's a lot of advancements in the use of AI for EDA and um the whole uh EDA industry is actually very bullish right now because you can basically sell licenses per agent rather than per person and it can do a lot of stuff now and what this adds is a level of complexity that is you know we haven't seen so far in the transistor world when you start stacking you know entire wafers and running complete logic you know across uh two wafers stacked of maybe four wafers stacked in the future that's crazy so there's going to be a lot of challenges there and the paper actually does mention that this is a challenge so yeah that's that's very much a good point to bring up >> nice cool all right well folks with that we hope you liked this episode. Um, check out, of course, our substacks. Also, go to semi-dop.com.

[00:38:32]You can sign up for our free newsletter if you like Vic and I and our takes. We try to give takes there every single day. And, uh, sometimes I come in later than Vic, so I just get to take a take on his take and he doesn't get to respond before I hit send. So, uh, we try to keep it light-hearted and fun, too. But, thanks for listening and we'll catch you guys next time.