Pokemon Investors are Getting Dumber (Why I Still Am Investing)

本站添加: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, Catchall Collectibles here. In today's video, we're going to talk about the pallets more. Check my video last week. There's a whole series going on on the pallet. Basically, TLDDW, I am investing into Pokemon by the pallet over the past couple years, and I intend to do so into the next several years. And it's not just cosplay investor talk. It's not just I would buy this, I would buy that, I would sell this. I'm actually buying and selling these items right now, buying and holding these items. Um, and as you can see here, these are the actual returns from actual pallets of Pokemon product that exist. Uh, go check out the other videos. We're not going to go through there. There's some of the things that are on it. But today's video is uh is different conversations around this. I'm going to look at it from a few different angles. Later in this video, stay tuned.

[00:00:49]I'm going to tell you how I functionally shorted the Pokemon market. If if you don't know what that means, it's like you're betting on the Pokemon market going down. I didn't intentionally do that. Dan, what are you talking about?

[00:00:59]There are no financial products for short selling the Pokemon market. I think I created one. I created one. Uh I might find this cross-osted into Wall Street Bets. It did not pan out. I did not do it intentionally, but I will walk you through what that was, how that happened, and uh and what the ramifications of it were. But yeah, today's video, quick little conversation at the outset. I uh I have some loose guidelines on how I want to talk about this. Next week will be like the final for this shortterm period. It will be the final pallet video. Next week I'm going to talk more about uh individual items and how even though you have a nice clean smooth 100% compound annual growth rate you had and it's crazy how clean and smooth it was because you had slightly more than a double up year one and then you have like exactly a double up year two or pallet number one. Pot number two has has only been done and and fully complete for a little over a year and uh almost exactly a double up there. Pot number three, uh that one's slacking. Only a 50% growth in that first year. Pallet number four, there's no compound annual growth rate because it's not there. One thing I'll say too at the outset, the YouTube channel, in spite of these videos, all this transparency, all this Pokemon business at a high level, um people just love the cosplay investors. The amount of cosplay investors channels out there whose compound annual growth rates exceeds that of my Pokemon investment pallets, even though they barely own, they barely walk the walk, they barely do anything that they talk about. And over here, I've got a measly 37.11% compound annual growth rate to my YouTube channel growth. So, definitely uh invest in that like and subscribe button. Something that I don't say too frequently, but uh the cosplay investors are good at saying that every video, but okay. So, moving ahead. The first conversation I want to have is just solely around this. I was recently asked in a live stream. I'll link that live stream above if I remember to. I was recently asked in a live stream, Dan, and and maybe it was a meme question that I always fall for and I always answer seriously. Dan, what do you think a 151 PCB will be worth in 20 years? And so what I did was I went to the TCG player chart. 151 PCBs like most things in 151 has tripled in the past 12 months. 3x in 12 months. So naturally, and and the scary part is I I don't know what I'm going to title this video.

[00:03:20]There's a chance that I titled it about shorting the Pokemon market and losing.

[00:03:23]There's a chance that I titled it about trillion dollar PCBs. I don't know what it's going to be, but uh irrational exuberance. I think there are people this simple-minded and I I I I don't apologize for being blunt and direct and and sometimes kind of mean the way that I am because I think the space really needs it. But some people in the space I think are so simple-minded that like, hey, Pokemon 3x over the past 12 months, so it's going to 3x next year and 3x next year and 3x next year. That's great. That sounds amazing, right?

[00:03:56]Sounds amazing. Sounds good. An item is 100 today. In a year, an item that's 100 today could be 300. In two years, an item that's 100 today, a pallet two years ago, that's 50 grand could be $200,000. Next year, this pallet could be $400,000 and it could be $800,000 a year after that. At some point though, that is an exponential and that's a very quick growing exponential. And it's not an exponential like the S&P 500 growing at 7% 10% per year. When you're doubling, when you're tripling every year, I I did the quick math live on stream. A 151 PCB, if it 3xed every year for the next 20 years, it would be a $3 trillion PCB. Open up your chat GPT, open up your whatever AI of choice you use, or just go into a calculator and do three, the little carrot symbol to the 20th. Do three to the 20th power. Going back to elementary school, maybe middle school, mathematics, education, that's 20. That's 23s. Three times three times three times three and then times that by the thousand or $1,500 that PCTBs are today. Um I don't know when, but at some point it will break. At some point all this insanity, absurdity, it has to fundamentally break down these obscene growth rates. Um but over the short term, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Uh, so I even though I I tease I'll talk about it in a little bit here. It'll be the first thing I talk about when I go to TCG Player. We do have a bunch of TCG player charts pulled up. But um, yeah, it uh, it is possible. It is possible. I I don't anticipate this to happen, but I was asking back in my original pallet video two years ago. I was asking like uh, what do you guys think the pallet will be worth? And and two things, let me know. First in the comments, what do you think a PCB of 151 will actually be worth in 20 years? I said something like five grand. And even that feels crazy. Even tripling over 20 years is like quite healthy growth, especially from the very unhealthy growth that something that's happened so far. But but there's so many people that uh they're like, "Obviously this was going to double. Obviously that was going to double." It's like, "How much Pokemon do you have uh to match your bullishness, your irrational exuberance on all this stuff?" It it that's the thing that always blows my mind is um people talk about how obvious it was yet in that time frame they didn't 5x their net worth. They didn't uh presumably but anyways if I had to at this point reevaluate and I I think back when I started the palace the the holding period was always going to be like until 2030 and then reevaluate from there. So it was a original six-year holding period, five and a half year holding period and and I'm continuing to do that today. four more years, three and a half more years.

[00:06:44]Um, I see many scenarios where that pallet is over half a million dollars. It's crazy to say that I'm not guaranteeing that by any stretch of the imagination.

[00:06:53]If I thought that was a guarantee, I would go back and I would replicate and and I would I would uh I would put a lot more than I have in just these four pallets. Pallet five is coming. We'll talk about that more next week. But, uh, if I thought it was a guarantee that that was going to happen, and it's funny because like there's tons of people in the comments, there's tons of people that'll watch this video that think that that's all but guaranteed. They they think that's a certainty that damn, there's no way your pallet couldn't more than double again in the next four years. Dan, beyond that, your par pallet is guaranteed to double in the next 12 months. Maybe it is. I don't have the same irrational exuberance. I'm I'm not that bullish. That's why I'm called bearish Dan with uh with millions of dollars on Pokemon. But uh it could and I would attribute some percent chance to this uh I I would say less than less than a 1% chance. It could double each of the next four years. So So 200,000 goes to 400,000 in 2027 goes to 800,000 in 28 goes to 1.6 million in 2029 goes to 3.2 million in 2030. Um do I think that's going to happen? Not at all. But is that possible? Absolutely. I I significantly less than a 1% chance. Let me know in the comments below. Will will pallet one be worth $3 million? Will all this 151, all the crown zenith, all the um Johnny treasure evolve these guys ETV case, all the uh late sword shield, early scarlet violet, will that be able to carry through a 100% compound annual growth rate across six years? cuz to do it for one year or two years is significantly easier than to do it for eight years straight. That's a whole different beast. That's a whole different animal.

[00:08:32]Um, yes, that would be a 2 to the eth going back to math. 2 to the eth power 64. That would be a clean 64x from that uh from that $50,000 in 2024, which leads to a little over three million if you're checking my math at home. But uh yeah, I if I had to guess at this point, throwing a number out there, kind of making things up, complete guess.

[00:08:53]Because even though everyone will say how obvious things were, none of this is obvious whatsoever. None of this is obvious. People will say, "Oh, you just you got to invest in XYZ sets because 151 was so obvious." This was so it it it it blows my mind because it's like show me the video two years ago where you said you were going to do XYZ, you did XYZ and then you forexed your money in in two years at large scale. If you turn 100 bucks to 400 bucks, I don't again I don't mean to be mean. That doesn't matter. I don't care. You could have done that working at McDonald's for a week. Um you could have done that doing anything for a week. Uh that that's uh it's not what I'm trying to do here. But anyways, continuing back to here after after all the ranting. Um, yeah, let me know in the comments below.

[00:09:40]What will Pallet One be worth in 2030?

[00:09:43]My throwing it out there number is 500 grand. And next week I'll talk about it more, too. But the returns are always very lumpy. I I I think like right now it's super clean. Look at how clean this is. It doubled in year one. It doubled in year two. Clean 100. And I rounded it. I I just put a 100% compound annual growth rate. It's not exactly that. It's actually slightly more than that um for both of them, but I I just put roughly uh vi vibe vibe mathing there. Um I could have easily put it in a calculator and then uh gotten what the actual kagger was, but 100% seemed too clean, too cool. It's uh it's going to be very lumpy. And one thing I'm going to do potentially I'll talk about in next week, but I'll definitely do it like five years out. I'll definitely do it at the end. Um that first double up, what carried that first double up? What carried the second double up? A lot of it was the answer to both is 151, but uh it'll be lumpy. There there will be certain products on the pallets that 6x in one year and then they're flat for three years, four years. Think think of hidden fates years ago. If you were around six years ago, seven years ago, most of you weren't, but uh hidden hidden fates out of the gate went to a $200 ETB, got massive reprints, went down to 150. in my mind and I don't have an amazing memory but Hin Fates ETBs were 150 to 200 for like five years it feels like and now they're popping off everything's popping off almost it's going crazy again but uh it's crazy how lumpy a lot of these returns are concentrated to very short time periods you have your TCG player buyout they they double up they two 2.5x and then they kind of like trail down over the coming months but uh I know that I don't know what the hell's going to happen in any of That's why I scattershot across many different items. Actually, just a non TCG made a video recently talking about how how Stellar Crown had done so well and how Shrouded Fable had like a lot of people don't buy the trash sets, only buy the really good sets. Well, and and this is where I'm going to pivot into uh we'll talk about it more in in in the upcoming week, but yeah, let me where am I here? Oh, so so this is the one we have to do first before we do what I was just talking about. Let let's do how I shorted the Pokemon market. So, let me let me see if I can bounce back and forth cleanly. Um, Pallet 4 has Fantasma Flames booster cases. You you can see at the top I have an agreement with my dad whereby um Wait, why is that not okay? I was wondering why it wasn't showing the Fantasma Flames. I thought I was on the wrong tab, but I was just not down enough. So, I have four booster cases of Fantasma Flames on Pallet 4. I have four booster cases of Mega Evolutions on on pallet 4. One thing, if you watched my original video two years ago, I said that I have an agreement with my dad where he's getting sold into, even if the market price is 90 a box, 80 a box, which has been the case in in the past, if the market price is 300 a box, he's getting sold into two booster cases of every set. We're putting four onto the pallet, joint 50% ownership. So, he's getting two booster cases of every main set for uh for my cost, which these days I pay 110 a booster box from DRO. So, I uh in the boom that we're in, I'm very disorganized. Pallets are flying left and right. Six figure collections are flying left and right. Mega streams here and there. Ponga just had one last night.

[00:13:13]Excuse me. Um, I thought I had earmarked and started.

[00:13:21]Uh, it's funny cuz as I record this, pallet 4 is like sealed. It's in the books.

[00:13:28]Pallet 4 hasn't been physically manufactured yet. So, like all of these things are in a staging area ready to go onto the pallet, ready to go to my dad's warehouse location, but uh they haven't physically done that yet. And I uh in my mind I had a certain area that it's like, "Hey, here's the four cases of this. Here's the four cases of that." At one point or another, I uh I I've many pallets laid out. I have here's a staging area for my next Golden Consignments, my next DC consignments, my next Mega Stream shipments, and here's my next shipments to PK and Ponga and all these different things. And at some point, my wires got crossed. And at some point I accidentally the four cases that were earmarked of Fantasmal and the four cases that were earmarked of Mega Evolutions I sold them. I sent them to Peronga. I sent them to a to a consignment operation. I I private sold them somewhere through Instagram or whatever PayPal invoice. And uh I didn't have them. I didn't have them as of uh 3 weeks ago when I went to start planning to record the video. And I was going through I printed off this checklist and I was I was putting uh little marks next to all of them like, "Yep, got it. Got it. Got it. There it is. There it is.

[00:14:36]There it is. And uh sadly I was missing those. So So what did I have to do? I uh I I functionally short sold Fantasma Flames. If Greenie is out there listening, I don't know if he listens to all my videos, but somebody will clip this and tag him and whatever, but he uh he invested heavy in Fantasma Flames. Ju just for like just for the memes. I should have I didn't, but I should have specifically gone crawling to Greeny and been like Greeny Greeny. Oh, investment master. uh who who invested in Fantasma Flames at like full market price at launch. I should have said please please sell me some of your Fantasma Flames.

[00:15:12]But yeah, I I recently thankfully I did it like in here. So funny enough I I'm up 20% since I bought them. But I had to go into the open market and buy four cases of Fantasma Flames. I had to and I I when I buy when I say the open market, I don't mean TG Player. I don't mean eBay. I am generally buying six figure collections like every month at this point if not a couple times a month. So I just I found collections that had them bought the collection at 80 to 85%. So I probably paid 320 a box. But but yeah, I I shorted the Pokemon market over a fivemon period where a box that I had a cost basis of 110 on. And it's not as bad as it sounds at first glance because it's like Dan Dan short sold the the cases at at 660. That was my cost from DRO. So I took my Dro ones for 110 a box. I sold them all into the open market at whatever it was. Uh I I probably sold mine at uh at this 250 range. I probably sold them for about 1,500 a case and then I had to reby them for uh for about uh 320 a box. So, I functionally 24 boxes. Well, 48 boxes.

[00:16:24]Fantasma Flames is doing a lot better than Mega Evolution, but but let's uh let's say I sold them for 250 a box, paid some fees, and then I had to reby them at 320. So, I lost 70 bucks a box across 24 boxes of Fantasma Flames, and then I lost maybe 50 bucks a box or something. Couple grand in the grand scheme of things. Uh but but I did not intentionally do that. It's uh that's how disorganized I am in a boom. I'm I'm working on being better, more organized.

[00:16:52]But uh yeah, that that's something that I wanted to throw. I figured it would be a nice clickbay, but actually the good kind of clickbait because it's true. I functionally short sold Fantasma Flames and got destroyed in in a time when my pallets were up 50 grand, 100 grand, hundreds of thousands of dollars. I I I got destroyed and I lost two grand shorting Pokemon. And and one thing that I'll say too, people call me a bear.

[00:17:16]people say this that and I um I know that I don't know and I'm smart enough that say say Robin Hood say Wall Street Bets say that there were these options concocted whereby you could actually functionally short $440 fantasmal flames where you could short $300 Dustin rivals. So, I'm not buying significantly more to add to hold for the long term, but I know that I don't know. That's why I have four cases of each on the pals. I know that I don't know. That is why I would never I would never engage in shortselling the Pokemon market if that instrument were to be created. Maybe Koshi, Poly Market, that instrument might exist, but I uh I know enough that I don't know. I know enough that the the uh the market can remain irrational, irrationally exuberant longer than I can remain solvent, especially around all these uh shiny trading cards. It's all so arbitrary. It's all made up. It's also obvious once it's happened, but it's really not obvious whatsoever. Um some of these people who talk about how obvious these things are. They say and and I I mentioned Anon a minute ago, and I I think I forgot to say why I was mentioning. He made a video recently um about how like people just say buy the best sets and and you're going to do the best and they they look at um they look at past results as if they're going to and what sets the best set back in XY era the best set was always Flashfire for the pricing for for years the best set was always Flashfire and then uh and then 10 12 years later well well now it's Phantom Forces is the most expensive set of that block. There are times where things will just flip. The the general consumer demand and sentiment and number one set will become number two. Chase card will change in a set. I I think sometime Rayquaza of V-Max was the chase card from above skies and then it became the Mumbrean and then all these narratives get built afterwards to match something that people didn't really forecast that well if at all. Um, but yeah, one thing I wanted to talk about here, one thing that people constantly say, and I forget if I did this in a live stream or in my last video, but um, oh, loose packs are terrible, terrible investment, they'll never make sense. Um, and ironically, and this is where I'm going to be mean again, people are so simple-minded that like you say something a year ago, a week ago, a month ago, and then like you're not allowed to flip-flop into some other thing. So, so like last week, last month, o over the past few weeks, I've been consistently saying I don't love Ascended Heroes loose packs because I just think a year from now, I think they're going to return very poorly relative to most other things that I'm buying. I need them for the streams. I'm buying them every day, every week, but like I don't like them compared relatively to a lot of things. Well, well, my simple brain can't compute anything further. Like I'm I'm just going to broadcast and forecast that one statement of Dan across every loose pack for all time. No. Like that's one set at one time. In a year, I will like ascended loose packs more than I like them today. But but people people get so hung up on and again I always shout this one out too. Years ago, Alex said Charizard UPC's he wasn't investing in them. And why? They were 200 bucks and they were right out of the gate 50% 60% above MSRP and people kind of trashed on him like Alex this thing's crazy. This thing's going to the moon and and he he was like pumping the brakes and same thing I was you talked to me and Nick on Poke Flips. You talked to me on a live stream. I uh I I didn't like it. I was selling mine into the market and you know what happened 6 months, eight months, a year later, they were under under MSRP. They were nearly wholesale.

[00:20:58]So like as prices change and as the market changes, you are allowed to change your opinions on things as the the uh details around them eb and flow and switch up. But uh yeah, pe people get so lost on that. It's so crazy. But yeah, um ju just to just to show what I'm talking about and we'll talk about it more next week with what's going to be going on pallet 5 and beyond. But like in the past year in the past year approximately I mean you go from you go from 24 25 to 44. Not quite a double up, but what is that like 80 90% 80 90% increase in the um in the booster packs.

[00:21:33]And this is one thing that I use a lot.

[00:21:35]I don't really make the flashy YouTube videos about it. I I do it more based on vibes. I have a couple spreadsheets that show this, but but one thing I look at is how much does a booster pack cost out of a box and how much does a booster pack cost loose? There are certain sets right now, and this is not like investment advice or anything like that.

[00:21:54]There are certain sets right now in the early SV era that it is cheaper per pack to buy by the case. Historically speaking, that was almost always the case. You buy 216 packs in a case at once and you get a discount, but that is not always the case. So, a year ago, a year ago, what's what's 2,400 divided by 36? Let me actually do some math here on the other screen. So, 2400 divided by 36. So, a year ago, packs were $66 per pack if if you were buying them by the booster box. and uh and packs were only 25 bucks. So packs were like a 60% discount if you were to buy the loose pack versus the box. Well, now what happened? A year later, the box is only up 10%. Best set. If Allis Guys is the best set of all time and blah blah blah, so it's going to be the best returns and Evolve Guys has been like one of the worst sets to hold over the past year.

[00:22:44]Is this a year? This is six months. So So a year it's up fair bit more than that, but this is six months. Um let's see what the packs were over six months.

[00:22:51]So, so PAX went from 30 to 45. They went up 50% in a time where the box went up less than 10%. So, apologies there for for saying the wrong time frame at initially, but uh one thing that I I'll probably talk about this in many upcoming videos. When you have $700 Dustin Rivals before its first birthday, Dustin Rivals is like just getting on its feet. It It's walking around. It's uh it's walking with assistance. It's It's still got poopy diapers. Destined Rivals is a brand new set. Not even had its first birthday party yet. That's coming very soon. But uh $700 booster box, a lot of the gains that in at least this is my opinion. This is my take.

[00:23:32]This is not objective statement of fact of what's to come. This is not me peering into a crystal ball. But what's happening with a lot of these sets is that uh or the ETBs. So the ETBs rose about 50% over the same time frame. ETBs and packs significantly outperform the box. Some some people live and die by I only buy the be the boxes of the best sets and I'll never touch EDBs and I'll never touch packs. Um I I do these things mostly based on vibes. I do these things based on what feels like decent value relative to the other things. But uh but yeah, one thing that I think is happening more and more uh prismatic evolutions I think more and more all not all many of the future gains are being clawed forward. I uh I I think it's pretty reasonable that uh in hindsight I will look at my pallets in 2030 and I will say wow those first two years of double- ups that that first double up that second double up so that my pallet won 4xed in two years that was mo like I think there's a reasonable chance that I get plateau action on the palace will the plateau action like this will it happen this year will it happen next year will it happen only in 2029 final year whatever I I don't know But uh somebody out there, it's obvious to them and and they know guaranteed what's going to happen, but they just uh they don't do any actions based on that. But um at some point, I think a lot of the gains will have been pulled forward. I I think Destin rivals someday could be a $2,500 will be a $2,500 booster box like Evolving Skies. But if it's $1,000 a year in, a year and a half, two years in, uh and then it takes 15 years to ultimately get to 2500, which is possible. Same thing with me saying my pallets might be um my pallets might be uh $500,000 after uh after 2030.

[00:25:25]Pallet one, there's also some percent chance that pallet one is uh 250 grand.

[00:25:31]It could go up 20 more% in the next four years cumulatively and uh and stay stagnant. it. People don't attribute any percentage chance to that. They think it's impossible and that's what's scary.

[00:25:44]Um, but yeah, uh, the last thing I think I want to leave it with here, because I'm I'm getting pretty ranty and rambly.

[00:25:50]I'm always ranty and rambly, but I think I'm getting worse than normal. Uh, I I talked in last week's video or a live stream about the difference between the packs and the bundles and the ETBs, and I'm out here like buying my blend of each of them. I think there's there's merit to each of them. But but one thing I want to leave you with here with all this irrational exuberance going on, a lot of people state that uh a lot of people state that because a 151 ETB uh when was the date? Does this show the date?

[00:26:25]Because a 151 ETB. So I paused quick so I could grab these. Uh be because a 151 ETB a set that is um it's not even three years old. A 151 ETB because that is $600. People say that hey Ascended Heroes in three years because 151 is $600 and because Ascended is better and they say these subjective things as as if they're objective statements of fact.

[00:26:52]But but because this the worst case scenario for Ascended Heroes ETBs because of this because of past results is is $500 for an ATB in in three years.

[00:27:06]Like that's the that's the worst case scenario. That's the downside, guys. The worst case scenario is that this thing triples in the next three years. Again, go back to the three trillion dollar 151 UPC. go back to like actually using your brain cells. Um, which people just fail to do. I think a lot of people fundamentally believe that. And so like if that were true, if that were true and this thing was was just guaranteed to 3x in the next three years, so much more money should be put in that. Like when I hear somebody say, "Oh, yeah. I think that's I I I believe that. I think that's true." How many do you have? Oh, I have seven of them. Why why don't and then their irrational exuberance. Well, I I think I can 50x my money each year because I I just know it's not even worth having the conversation. But uh the scary thing is that like Ascended is a few months out 185 in ETB and a year later Prismatic is less than that. Like I I truly I think what's happening and and what will get worse.

[00:28:13]So, if my pallet truly does go to $3 million in 2030, we will have had multiple more years. We will have had instead of a two-year boom, year and a half boom, whatever, uh we will have had a 5year period where just everyone was getting crazier and crazier and crazier.

[00:28:30]I think the analog, whatever it is, whatever the specially set is in 2029 that has the crazy chases and the god packs and all all the things, artists will continue to art. I I promise you whatever the equivalent of Ascended is in 5 years, in four years will uh will be a $500 ETB day one. It should be. It should like at some point it should be if uh if if there like three years later 151 is is 600 ETB. Five years later, what what's this going to be? A thousand dollar ETB. PCT is going to be two three grand. At some point, if these things are actually guaranteed and and the more they happen, the more guaranteed people think they are, even though they're not, um, the gains will just be pulled more and more forward. And people Oh, Dan.

[00:29:18]Dan saying an ETB will be $500 at release. We have a less than one-year-old set in Destin Rivals. We have a less than one-year-old set with a $700 booster box. And people, oh well, worst case, how old is Evolve, guys?

[00:29:33]Worst case scenario, it is the evolving skies of the era. So five years in, it will be worth 2500. It might be, it absolutely might be. But if you say worst case scenario, Destin Rivals will be 2500. Hell, it should be a,000 today.

[00:29:49]If I believed that, if I believed that it was a guarantee that Destin Rivals would be 2500 in the next four years, I I would go out and buy a bunch of them.

[00:29:59]I just fundamentally don't agree with all this irrational exuberance. I fundamentally don't agree um with with all the lunacy going on. Let me go back here and I know I had a couple closing notes to say. Uh and and and this is one thing too. Dan, you're such a bear. Dan, you're so dumb. You're so wrong. You've been so wrong for so long. Like I I two years ago made a video about investing in Pokemon when very few other people were to any kind of a scale. People were afraid that that like Yeah. cases were sub $500, sub uh sub $100 a booster box. I mean, sub 90, almost 80 bucks a booster box for for the time period that I started investing. And one thing, what one thing the the whole worst case scenario, it can only go to zero. You can only lose all your money. Best case scenario, you can make many multiples.

[00:30:49]Uh the the um the asymmetric upside, that that's the terminology I was looking for. I was thinking disproportional, but the asymmetric upside is something that I uh that I that keeps me investing in this. I know that I don't know. I know that a lot of this stuff is crazy, but I know that it could get a lot crazier. It has gotten a lot crazier than I thought it ever could, too. But uh one thing that I'll say at the end here, my uh my buckets and all the things that I can talk about that I've talked about a million times.

[00:31:20]Um I am willing and able to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars. Like right now, in many ways, I'm uncomfortable with what's going on in today's market. But uh I I I said this jokingly in uh to to one of um Alex's Alex's videos um on YouTube recently. I said something about like it's all going to crash and burn some at some point. The longer this irrationality goes on, the harder the fall will be. And I know that's coming and I'm willing and able to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars getting punished at the end of this. And my plan is to just double up so many times between now and then that taking a 50% haircut, there's not going to be much hair left to cut at whatever point it comes. But I am I'm willing and able to take a 50% haircut at the end of all this because uh like what it's already made for me and what I think I'll make with it all in the coming months and years. And and the thing that's scary now I'm not scared for me when I say the market's scary. I'm never really scared for me. I know that my things are in order. I know that I have a a pretty well uh stress tested setup and I I could survive many 2008 type things, many 1999 type things, many uh financial meltdowns and all kinds of issues. But uh the scary thing is that however long this irrational exuberance goes on, whenever it ends, there will be things that are flatlining for um for years.

[00:32:51]There will be things that drop 50, 60, 80%. I I don't know when, but I am quite certain that will happen. Um, and there will be people buying in a month before that happens. There will be people buying in a week before that happens. I joked earlier, I I did functionally, accidentally, not intentionally, I I never would have intentionally done it, but I accidentally shorted the Fantasma Flames market. I accidentally shorted the Mega Evolutions market. There will be people, and there are people today intentionally levering up. So the opposite of a short wi would would be like like basically going long with money that's not yours. Um I I was I was selling product that I didn't have basically and I uh I lost money in that.

[00:33:34]But one thing people are functionally doing and we'll do more and more. It it will only make sense like in a world where my pallet um my my pallet returned 100% compound annual growth rate year-over-year. I literally could have put my entire pallet on a 30% credit card cash advance and I I could have paid that interest over the entire past two years and I would have made a lot of money doing it.

[00:33:58]That that doesn't mean that would have been good behavior, but like if you think it's a guarantee, if I ever believed any of that, which I never will, if if I ever thought that these things were guaranteed to double in a year, I would I would reortgage my house. I would max out all my credit cards. I I would do and and the the scary thing is if you knew it to be true, which you can't, but you should. The only logical thing to do if you knew something was going to double in a year, yes, max out your credit card. Yes, do all the things. I know someone's going to clip that. Someone's going to like cut out a word there or two that's going to make that a very dangerous statement. But uh the scary part is that if all these things that no one can know, if someone actually knew them, you should do crazy things to lever up and take all the extra money and take all the extra lack of risk to to just bask in the free tendies, right? But uh yeah, next week we'll talk about more uh what was on pallet 1 2 3 4, what went up year one, what was flat year two, yada yada. um what's going on to pallet five, but I I kind of teased at it in this video already some so much overlap between last week's video, this week's video, and next week's video. But um I mean, look out there at Poke Tube. I'm I'm going to leave you with this one last time. Look out there at Poke Tube. Or maybe I already closed it. No, I didn't close it. So um let me go back here.

[00:35:27]I'm going to go back here and I'm going to show you this. Yeah. So, again, invest in the subscribe button. So, all these channels out there that um I talk about repetitiveness. And it's funny because sometimes people will say, "Dan, you're saying the same things you said last week. Dan, Dan, you only talk about the same thing." I only talk about the same thing once a week at least. I I post a video every Monday at 1 p.m. I'm actually recording this Monday at 9:30 a.m., but every Monday at 1 p.m. I sometimes I do say the same thing. The most popular channels with the highest compound annual growth rate literally only say one thing. They say this like line went up, line went up, line went up. It was so obvious. Line went up, line went up. I have none of these things. Click my affiliate link below if you want to buy these things. But here I am. My pallets have a 100% compound annual growth rate. My subscriber base only has a 37% compound annual growth rate. Invest in that sub button today.

[00:36:24]Invest in that like button today. Push this out to more people. Um, and because my repetitiveness pales in comparison to the YouTube channels that have a 100% plus compound annual growth rate, and there are tons of them. There are tons of YouTube channels out there that over the past two years have substantially beat my compound annual growth rate on my palace. But with that, I appreciate everyone watching. Give me uh give me the PK prayer hands in the comments if you made it all the way to the end because I am PK prayer handing that people will actually hit that sub button. 9,500 subs. I'm shooting for 10,000 before the end of the year. It's It's a very achievable goal. I think it's going to happen, barring anything unforeseen. But yeah, as always, I appreciate you all watching. I will catch you all later.