Government policy announcements, such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's request to avoid gold purchases and foreign travel to conserve foreign exchange reserves, can significantly impact stock market performance, particularly affecting sectors like gold finance, jewelry, and airlines. This demonstrates how macroeconomic policy decisions directly influence market sentiment and sector-specific stock movements.
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from overnight global Cues to live Dal Street moves. We decode what matters for your money today. From stocks to sectors to the top business news. We've got your morning game plan covered. Watch me, Abakaya, as I bring you the opening bell action Monday to Fridays 9:05 a.m. only on India Today.
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Good morning. You're with us here on Business Today. I'm Abubakaya. Let's take you through the headlines at this hour.
Jewelry, gold finance, and oil sensitive stocks in focus after the prime minister urged people to adopt work from home, save petrol, and avoid buying gold for a year amid the global oil crisis.
Q4 earnings action picks up this week with nearly 200 companies set to announce March quarter results. Party Airtel, HPCL, Dixon, Sipla, JSW Steel, Power Grid, Canara Bank and Indian Hotels among key stocks in focus.
Global markets show mixed cues to start the week. US markets ending higher and uh NASDAQ at record highs after stronger than expected jobs data. South Korea's Cosby hitting a fresh peak while most Asian markets traded lower amid US Iran tensions.
Reports suggest Air India is tightening cost controls amid mounting losses and global aviation stress. CEO Campbell Wilson says over a thousand employees were terminated in the last 3 years for ethical breaches. Airline defers salary hikes but rules out layoffs despite a tough outlook ahead.
Reliance Industries is reworking Geo Platform's IPO structure with reports suggesting the issue could now be a fully fresh offering instead of an OFS. The move comes amid investor differences over valuation and pricing with proceeds likely to support expansion and debt reduction plans.
Sher and Vin joining us this morning Sherendra Badnager and Venid Bolinskar from Ventura Securities. Uh Sher, let's get the setup in place first. Five minutes to go for opening. A lot of geopolitical action, the prime minister's comments uh and of course earnings.
>> Well, Abhab, you have at least 1 percentage point down tick on the gift nifty. So that's the opening quote as far as Nifty is concerned. 24100 24 uh,000 and now 24,900 is what 23,900 is what we are looking at as far as the nifty is concerned. Uh oil is flaring up and a lot of FI money being sold in India is going to the Korean markets. So that's the flow of trade but midcaps in top shape. There are bullish crossovers that are happening in the oil and gas sector in particular the solar space. So we'll keep an eye out on those one. Overbought sectors are healthcare and pharma. You need to pause a bit. Let the profit booking happening there and then get back into major hospital stocks. Strong structures are in AU bank, graphite India, NTPC and Borosil renewables and a bit of weakness is seen in State Bank of India post earnings LNT and of course Hero Motors. So that's the broader structure of the way. Stay away from indices. Look at midcaps and small caps.
That's where the bulls are stampeding on. Abha.
>> All right. Seems like a fair assessment.
Let me bring in Venit as well. Venit, um, want to get your perspective. Of course, lots of different threads to pull here. FIS have been pulling out.
Yes, they do seem to have better value picks at the moment in markets like a Korea as Shell mentioned. On top of that, we've got geopolitical tensions continuing in the backdrop. Oil is looking a little nervous once again. and the prime minister uh saying don't buy gold uh for up to a year. Some of this is likely to cause a bit of nervousness in the markets.
>> Yeah. So you know with the uh you know PM advocating uh not to buy gold and you know travel less and do more of work from home I think you know takes you back to those times when we faced during the co times. So you know we are going to have co kind of disciplinary action without actually the you know without actually being as uh drastically bad as the co times. So I think you know there will be a little bit of selloff you know your airline stocks hospital industry the service industry will get hit. uh there's also a recognition that even there's pressure on the fiscal so we are seeing the rupee also trade slightly firmer and uh keeping this in mind I think uh we will see a little bit of a churn in the way the you know the world operates also and as I mentioned to you the stocks which are looking weak will sell off further gold will also look to be bad but you know I think uh there would be a lot of uh uh you know savings for the corporate sector in the terms of you know not traveling and uh that will be a you know kind of an offset to the uh you know to kind of an expected slowdown in the markets.
Okay, I just want to go through the prime minister's comments again uh kicking off uh you know from uh the first point just to go through those again because they're all fairly uh important and coming from the prime minister himself saying use public transport carpool to save fuel. That's the first appeal coming in amid the raging war that we're seeing right now.
use public transport uh carpool with colleagues uh talking specifically about the impact we're likely to see on the services sector on the back of this uh he says prefer electric vehicles reduce diesel dependence this is a first I would say acknowledgement of the fact that we are going to see a hit on the oil uh burden revive our work from home hold virtual meetings uh remember till now the government had said that we had a certain amount of stockpile that things were in control but now actually saying that try and conserve as much as possible. Also saying avoid non-essential foreign travel for one year. Avoid non-essential foreign travel. Avoid buying gold as this is usually bought in foreign currency.
That's also what he said. Uh choose domestic tourism over overseas vacations. Lot of domestic um hotspots particularly the hills at this time of year. definitely saying perhaps look at some of those options instead of foreign travel right now and avoid non-essential gold purchases to save forex. All of this builds pressure on the currency, builds pressure on the fuel bill. Uh so incredibly critical at this point.
Markets have uh kicked off down a percent as anticipated. We're just a notch below 24,000 this morning and it's looking a little weaker today. We can't ignore it. It's not just a minor pullback. it is some amount of nervousness coming in on the back of the continuing war as well as nervousness on the prime minister's commentary as well.
Uh remember we are likely to see a deeper impact given our huge dependency on fuel and with the war continuing to rage on and no end in sight with regards of regards to ships and their passage through the Hormone Strait. It doesn't look like we are going to see uh any kind of relief anytime soon. So a little different to what we're seeing in global markets that continue to rally on on the back of some of those tech names. Uh we are definitely seeing weakness in India this morning. Shell uh Abha. Yes. Two top losers in FNO are predictably Titan uh 3.8% lower. Kalyan dwellers uh 7 and a half% lower. This is the impact of what the prime minister has requested citizens to do. Uh similarly, look at how Mut Finance, which is the gold financer doing 1.4% lower. That's the easiest uh thing to spot in the market. Look at Sky Gold.
This is down 8% 45 rupees lower at uh 495. And look at PN Guardgill. This is another listed dweller. Uh this is also uh at the moment uh right there in front of you on the screens dramatically lower 4 and a half%. Look at easy trip. This is the impact of foreign travel. And this is uh the two stocks make my trip and easy trip. This is what is uh uh now uh in the market trading week. 1% down on the index and 800 points down on the Sensex. These are >> I mean yes and and Vene tough to take this lightly when it's coming from the prime minister himself and as you said reminds us of co times it's really uh a crisis of that order I mean this is the first signal I mean when when he's saying return to work from home uh choose virtual meetings carpool uh don't travel or at least foreign travel try and limit that uh these are some some pretty uh you know hard-hitting suggestions when they're coming from the head of Yeah. So, you know, as I mentioned to you that uh you know, we going to see a little bit of there's a recognition that there's going to be stress on the global economy. Uh and it is going to be purely uh you know, driven by the fuel prices.
Uh you know, so that is going to have its impact on certain industries as we said. So, one of them is going to be the airlines industry. Obviously uh we are seeing the gold stock sell off and they've seen a very very healthy you know upward uh rally uh and their numbers were very good. So you know I think these two sectors are going to be primarily benefit uh you know affected.
So uh this uh as I said will help you uh you know innovate in terms of you know going back to your work from home kind of environment and we will see the tech and the digital stocks come back into the fold and they are expected to do rather well.
>> All right so let's talk about earnings also now we've got a whole host out some of them are actually uh you know pretty good. We've seen a decent number from Bank of Boda despite higher provisions.
Oberoy realy has seen a stellar set of numbers. Most real estate stocks have delivered of course of the last couple of quarters. Swiggy numbers perhaps worth talking about because while they're still seeing huge losses, their losses have actually narrowed somewhat so to 800 crores. They have seen the fastest growth in food delivery in the last four years. So that's Swiggy Markets. However, giving a thumbs down to those numbers on the loss figure.
That's really what continues to concern markets despite some of the commentary coming in uh from the food delivery major. So that's Swiggy for you. SBI seeing a little bit of weakness post earnings. No sell calls on it from brokerages uh but a slight miss on estimates coming in on SBI. Uh we've got JSW Infra net profit down 18% but revenue was up about 19%. Let's see how the markets are looking at those earnings as well. Uh we're also watching out for a whole host of numbers today.
Uh you know we'll look at um Canara Bank, Indian Hotels, uh JSW Energy will be reporting. So some of these are the ones to watch out for. Let's also pull up uh MCX because those earnings were pretty good as well. So, uh, Canada is down ahead of earnings and, uh, let's pull up, uh, a few others ahead of earnings today and MCX despite good numbers, is just flat, but it's seen a very, very solid run up, of course. Uh, Hyundai Motors net profit was down 22%, revenue was up 5%, so not sure how Hyundai is reacting today, but let's pull that up for you. And, uh, Bajage Healthcare has posted a net loss of 22 crores as well. We'll pull that up for you as well. uh well Hyundai is actually seeing some buying coming in despite the profit decline uh but uh you know perhaps uh some amount of buying coming in on the back of lower levels there healthcare down over 8% on those earnings uh net loss of 22 crores against a net profit same period last year so the market is clearly uh giving a thumbs down to those numbers any of these that you've been tracking or or you know have seen some uh takeaways uh you know some key takeaways from any of these earnings Yes, >> I think SBA was a stark contrast to what we were expecting and the kind of softness in numbers suggests that you know the NIMS are marginally down and uh and you know that's going to impact earnings going ahead. So we are a little bit uh you know downgrading on uh SBI and Baj Healthcare also was a issue with you know you rewriting back numbers. So these two stand out as negatives for the day. Rest of the market has more been more or less in line with expectations and nothing out of the ordinary as far as the numbers that you mentioned.
>> Okay, sure. So that's a good summary coming in on some of the key earnings that we're tracking for you. Uh just want to pull up a couple of others. ABB urban company look at these results impacts as well. It's worth mentioning ABB is down about 8% this morning. Urban companies also down. Remember, they're also struggling to maintain profitability and that's really what the market is reacting to. ABB, I'll take a closer look at those numbers in just a moment. Uh but first, uh as geopolitical tensions in West Asia intensify and crude oil prices remain volatile.
Concerns are rising over the impact on India's growth, inflation, trade and supply chains. Business Today Group editor Siddhad Rabi spoke with CI President and EY India chairman and CEO Rajiv Mammani on the risks facing the Indian economy, industry preparedness and whether India can still achieve its growth targets this fiscal. Listen in.
>> Big pressing concern which has dominated headlines over the past several weeks which is the West Asia crisis and the energy insecurity that it has imposed on many countries. India has met with the short supply and price surge uh in a manner which can perhaps be described as the best in the region but there are obviously economic consequences that we need to discuss. What is your assessment of uh the crisis as it stands today and its impact if any as far as India's growth and economy is concerned?
uh let me first start I I think as uh uh it's important uh on where you enter the crisis and if if I look at India uh I mean we have uh last 12 months uh has been dominated by uh global geopolitical things that have happened and India as a country India as an economy has been to a large extent responding to that and responding to that very well. uh so whether it was the Trump tariffs and I think India used that as an opportunity u and I think we probably do reforms best when we are under some crisis. So I think we really it took an opportunity to focus and double down on reforms. Um you know the uh way we diversified our trade relationships through FDAs and in a span of 12 months I think we have done uh or proposing to sign up FDA hopefully in the next 6 months or so with almost more than 50% of the global GDP which on in very complimentary economies. So I think it opens up different set of opportunities.
Uh and and then we had the reforms particularly I would say I would really want to point out the GST reforms ease of doing business and uh and you know you saw that consumption was picking up, automobile demands were uh was going up.
The investment cycle was looking up. The IPO market was booming. Uh the fiscal and the u uh deficit was under control.
Remittencies were growing. So I think overall I would say it was a very positive scenario till suddenly we got hit by the west crisis and I think the government really followed their learnings of covid and really played the co playbook very well. So uh you saw immediately uh government uh working across ministries uh between finance and uh between center and state uh very very close coordination with industry.
>> All right Mammani on on the latest developments as well. Um let me come to you on some of your top picks then Venit in this current market with attention continuing to be on the midcaps of the broader markets what would be some of the key names you're focusing on >> I think uh we like all the you know the digital stocks they look very good although you know your uh sweetie has reported disappointing numbers but you know the the loss is narrowing down and we going to see more flows coming into these stocks. We like the insurance digital stocks. So uh uh you know those are the ones which should do well and uh and we also see that uh you know your you know actually there's going to be a dichotomy of sorts because we going to see a thrust on exports rupees weakening uh and at the same time we are going to see a lot of infrastructure boom take place. So you're going to pick the sweet spots of the economy and avoid the unnecessary uh you know expenditure that is coming out from uh you know oil uh excesses. So uh I think we are going to have a smooth landing out there and uh some of the stocks that I mentioned to you should do really well going ahead.
>> All right. So still some silver lining for Swiggy there even though today seeing a massive downward reaction as well as Urban Companies. So both of those taking a hit. We'll leave it there on the show this morning. Thanks so much for watching. We'll be back with you at 3 p.m. for Market Closer.
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Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Dal Street starts Monday on a back foot.
Cues from overseas are weak. Plus the commentary by Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the weekend advocating austerity across the board. Whether it's in uh gold purchases, whether it is in foreign travel, whether it is working from home has spooked the market. Nifty is down 233 points. What we've seen 23900 is a level that has held so far uh 23939 but early spaces are pointing to weakness apart from uh the PSU banking space in particular banker but we'll come to that later. For the moment, ladies and gentlemen, uh taking it on the chin are gold companies. Uh massive selling pressure coming in after the prime minister requested Indians to buy less gold or no gold for one year in a bit to save very precious forex. Look at sky gold 11% lower. Look at Senko gold 10% lower. Tangamile jewelry has lost 9.8%.
Kalyan jewellers is down 7 and a half%.
sector leader Titan was amongst the top losers in the FNO space down 6 and a half% uh PN guardgill is down 5 and a half% gold jewelry uh TVZ all of them down between five and four 4 and a half% apart from that you have uh strength that is coming only and only into select uh defense stocks look at Hindustan aeronautics Let's look at uh Bank of Bodha. But apart from that, it's very very difficult in this kind of a market on a fresh Monday morning uh to talk about positivity. Although I'm trying my best. Look at the advanced decline statistics. As of now, only 665 shares are in the green versus 2182 that are in the red. Realy media and auto are the top losers. Uh let me just try and find out uh the top gainers and new highs before we go to where Shali Parik our analyst for the all all-time highs, Loris Labs, Acutas Chemicals, Apollo Hospitals, NLC India and CGPAR few and far between. We'll keep an eye out on this but joining us on the show ladies and gentlemen is Vali Parik. She's the uh VP technical research and analysis at Prabhuas Leader. Good morning to you Vali. A very warm welcome. Uh not a great start for Monday.
>> Very good morning to you. Yes, market has shown as far as the index is concerned we are seeing weakness but stock specific movement does continue.
So yes.
>> Okay. uh in terms of stock specific movement what do you prefer at this point of time either on the long side or the short side?
>> Well so uh post Friday post the SBI result we were recommending a short sale for a target of 980 so that is what has been totally achieved but I think on buy side one must look at good uh chemical stocks in fact we have also been talking about auto and auto ailaries so JBM auto is on a verge of breakout if we have uh spoken about this stock quite a few times. So JBM Moto if you look at it it's currently at 681 and if you see the stock sustaining about that now 683 I think that this needs to sustain above that it could give us a target of 73750.
So this is one of the stocks in the cash counter and besides that I think now one should look at few of the uh IT stocks like CO forge etc they have open strong so I think uh these stocks do look good forge persistent uh absolutely coge and persistent are two stocks that vali and I have tracked over the last five seven years go forge post its earnings has shown signs of life. Uh uh Friday was really good. Uh the counter rose 6.4%.
You have today's gain at 1%. Remember this is against the backdrop of fairly fairly strong negativity in the market.
So this has to be appreciated and it comes after earnings and after a massive massive selloff. I'll request the PCR to kindly show us the long-term weekly chart of uh Core Forge. On 1st of December the stock was at 1976 almost 200 rupees or almost 2,000 rupees and in 16th of March it was at,029.
So 50% correction in prices happened because of fears of uh artificial intelligence taking the wind out of sales as far as Indian it is concerned.
So Coforge is uh looking strong here. a view on Titan that you may want to have.
Uh V Shali uh it was at a record high all of last week. Uh where do you see some sense coming in? Friday was earnings counter was up six 5% today is uh down 6%.
>> Absolutely. So I think actually on Friday our view was extremely uh bullish but now today I think it needs to take support at 4100. If 4,100 levels break then that could trigger further weakness and this can slide towards 3900. So for now well we would take it as a regular profit booking or a retracement but 4100 is the level to watch.
>> Uh we'll keep an eye out on Bank of Buda ladies and gentlemen. uh for the moment a bit of a bright spark as far as uh the market is concerned in a sea of uh negativity. You see uh Bank of Bodha just about in the green.1% higher intraday high was 269 but a downgrade coming in from IFL securities as the research house points to uh core net interest margins being under pressure and the y loan yield as well as uh cood worsening quarteron quarter. So that's the space ladies and gentlemen.
Let me show you some new highs. Uh shipping corporation of India 2.8% higher 349 fresh 52- week high. Advanced enzymes 13% higher 403 fresh 52- week high.
There's no stopping sterite technologies 5% circuit up. You have Indoch transformers 5% higher 2977.
A view that is coming into strength is uh Northern Arc Finance. This is also P earnings 6.9% higher 307 and of course Tata Consumer 5 and a half% higher 1230 what are you observing?
>> Okay. So I think right now I'm not looking at um PSU banking stock because if you see the index on the whole is making a lower top. So I'm not looking at that but I'm looking at Nestle. That is one of the stocks. BHEL is another stock which still looks lot of uh very positive and it's holding on very well.
So I think yes as you said defensive. So HL uh it gave a breakout above 4450. So I think gradually uh this becomes now a buy at every dip to look for a target of 5,200. So yes, these are the stocks to our liking uh for now and in fact even auto index on the whole quite promising. So auto index and look at JVM as we spoke about it. It continues to move high 6% high right now already.
>> Absolutely. Uh that's a strong stock that Vali caught really early in trade and needs to be looked into. Uh JBM Auto is not the only uh stock in green. Uh although 1780 crores worth of uh uh uh volume has happened on JBM auto giving it company is uh uh Ether Energy that's also in strength.
Giving it company is Ola Electricals 2.9% higher. So a bit of green in a sea of red as far as the auto space is concerned and of course uh you have a strength that is coming into Hyundai.
This is a stock that we haven't discussed post its listing after a very long while. So let's look at Maruti the sector leader. Intraday low today was 13231.
At the moment it's 13500 still well below uh 200 day moving average. So nothing much to talk about. Hyundai again well below 200 day moving average but 1893 some respite some strength coming in a view on Hyundai if you will Vali >> definitely so as a disclaimer this we had recommended to our clients at lower levels today I think it has come towards a resistance of 1940 I think today's high was pretty much close to that so once it sustains about 194044 this is ready for a next technical uh target resistance of 200 So I would say this becomes a buy with 1800 as support and look for higher targets because it is showing signs of reversal.
Okay, fair point 937. What we'll do ladies and gentlemen look at the intraday uh nifty weakness uh persists.
We've had uh uh the first 20 minutes of trade and the index is now headed to its intraday low. Uh the first 5m minute low ladies and gentlemen was uh 23895 and we are now at a low of 23896.
So selling pressure is now regrettably uh moving uh in strength. Let's look at uh what is contributing to Nifty's fall.
Uh I'm sure it's banks. Let's look at the pullers and draggers. Yes, State Bank of India is contributing 32 points to Nifty's negative total of somewhere like uh uh 230 points. We'll also uh look at SBI where Shali will keep uh her eyes peeled on the charts. The reason is that post earnings SBI has been a disappointment. Uh now below 200 day DMA. Uh what's also pulling the nifty down? HDFC Bank 31 points. Bharti Ael 31 points. Reliance uh 26 points. Titan and Eminem 24 and 13 points respectively.
This is how the Nifty structured at this point of time. Let's look at Nifty's advanced decline ratio. Out of 50 shares in the Nifty, just eight are in the green. 42 are in the red. How about NSC 500? 432 are in the red versus just uh 67 in the green. Vali, a view on State Bank of India, 3 days of very heavy sales, one of them led by earnings.
>> So, uh I would say 980 acts as a near-term support. So uh if we see a close below 980 I think this can trigger further selling coming towards 950 930 and I would say one needs to be cautious because overall banking index is showing a lot of pain. So I would say one should be cautious at this point 940. Uh a final view on the nifty vali before we bid you goodbye. Uh so 23900 has gone and uh we are at the day low and more importantly uh we are also below ladies and gentlemen the previous month's close on the nifty that's a big negative that essentially means previous month's close also becomes a resistance for the index final view where shali before we bid you goodbye >> no I would say 23800 is the final support level which should hold but failing which then we are looking for a downwards uh movement towards 23500 and so on. So well it's not looking so good right now the way we are seeing selling and as you also rightly mentioned advanced decline is quite poor. So I think it's a word of caution.
Fair point 941 ladies and gentlemen we'll pause it a bit. It hasn't been a great start for uh the market on uh Monday. Lots of negative cues coming in together. a bit of a flare up in oil because of uh uh you know weapons being exchanged between uh Iran and uh US in the West Asian conflict. uh FII net sales continue unabated that money is leaving India going towards Korea which is at a record high and of course this uh uh view coming in from the prime minister uh on austerity across uh uh across the country whether it is purchases of gold to save precious forest exchange avoiding unnecessary foreign travel working out of home has spooked the Lal street. uh there are more losers than I can count and for the moment uh the front line is uh led by State Bank of India down 3.3%. Uh gold companies have taken it on the chin. Uh we track about 30 gold financing gold companies and all of them are down between 3 and 10 and 11%. Midcaps have lost more. Uh Frontline has taken it uh difficult. Look at Titan uh on uh Monday uh on Friday it was at a record high post earnings but today 6 and a half% lower at 4215. That's the state of play ladies and gentlemen. 9:42 for you. Uh we'll be back shortly on uh coverage of news. Stay glued.
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