Davie Hunter - Big Precious Metals Moves and Corrections Are Close

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Grow an actively managed portfolio of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and roodium with Octus Metals today. What it really is is this is one big Ponzi scheme, and we're reaching the end of the Ponzi scheme where the music stops and you find out that there's really nothing underneath this. You know, it was all blown up by debt and and money on currency.

[00:00:29]Welcome back to another Octis Edge. I'm your host, Patrick Vieiraa, known as the contrarian. David Hunter stops by to give us his take on the economy and of course precious metals. David, thank you for stopping by. How are you doing?

[00:00:44]>> Hi, Patrick. Great to see you again.

[00:00:45]It's been quite a while.

[00:00:47]>> Yes, it has. Glad to have you back on.

[00:00:49]Yes, it's definitely been a while. Um, I want to start off and and touch on um an outlook where you have where you are looking at $7,000 gold. Just wanted to ask you how do we get there?

[00:01:02]>> Yeah. So, we obviously we've had quite a run here. You know, gold only a couple years ago was back in the mid to low uh 2000s.

[00:01:14]And I've raised my targets a few times since then. and I was at 3,400 and then I raised to 4,000 and 5,000 and 5,500 and yesterday I raised my price and then 6,800 in February after the selloff. Uh yesterday I raised my target to 7,000.

[00:01:33]Um I think you know a lot of it is monetary. We're obviously seeing all kinds of um you know money printing around the world. Not so much shortterm here, but but over over time that's been the case. I think you're you're going to see a very weak dollar going forward. I think that will be part of the move from, you know, 4,400 up to 7,000. Um, and obviously there's all kinds of geopolitics out there and and lots of lots of reasons to have constrnation about um, you know, worldwide situations. So, so I think gold uh gets a bid under those circumstances.

[00:02:13]Um and you know the other the other uh metal silver also does. Um so and I I also raised my silver price yesterday.

[00:02:24]Um I had increased it at going coming into 2026 in my first quarter letter.

[00:02:31]increased to 125 and we quickly got up to 120 20 122 uh within uh weeks of that. And uh so when when it sold off the first time went down to the mid60s I raised my target to from 125 to um 180 and yesterday I increased my target to 200. So that's where I'm at. I know there are a few people out there higher than me, but not too many. Most, you know, Michael Oliver is the high guy out there on the street talking about $300 to $500 and saying it could happen this summer.

[00:03:10]I think my 200 could happen this summer.

[00:03:12]Doesn't have to, but I think it could.

[00:03:15]Um, and I don't, you know, I can't get to 300 or more um, right now, but I certainly don't, you know, I respect Michael's work and and, you know, if we get there, more power to them.

[00:03:29]>> Yeah, it's um, a lot of different things to to look at right now when we're considering the the price action for the the precious metals. Um, and we'll definitely touch on silver, but I I just wanted to ask you the the current gold price. I think right now it stands at about $4,400 an ounce or somewhere around there. The current gold price, does what does it do for you? Does it worry you somewhat? Does it excite you?

[00:03:55]What is it telling you where it seems to, you know, be um a bit in uh it's not moving as quickly. It's it's a bit uh more labored.

[00:04:05]>> Yeah. Well, I I am forever telling people on X to um stretch their their time horizon and and have for, you know, stretch out their their um viewpoint to have perception um because I think you you can or have perspective because I think you can get caught up in the dayto day and it seems like forever if you're watching if you're watching the the price day by day when it when it takes a month to move. Everybody's going, "Oh, it's it's stuck in the mud. What's going on?" Um, when you're looking at a picture that's, you know, 20 years or 10 years or even 5 years, you get an entirely different perspective. I mean, gold's had a great run from from the low 2000s to 5,500 in a couple years, you know, few years. Um, and people people then expect it to do that all the time.

[00:05:02]It's like they, you know, and it is moving. Um, so, so what we've had since February, we had, you know, the the big run up to 5,500. That was a a big jump.

[00:05:14]I mean, we were down at 3,000 not long before that. So, that was a big run. um it needed to consolidate that and it it did that initially in February and then and then the Iran war started in you know right as March 1 came and again the metals are risk off I mean they are they I mean they are risk on and so when when the market decided when investors decided it's time to take some chips off the table to reduce our risk because of what's going on in Iran um it wasn't just stock market it was metals that got hit. So I think you know number one it was a big runup so it it deserved a consolidation of a few months and number two the Iran war gave it an excuse to to carry that the the first selloff in February could have been it if we hadn't had Iran but it probably makes more sense that it did need more time to consolidate. So I don't view it as anything but just a normal consolidation. And I know there are people talking bearishly and lower prices and it has to go back to whatever, you know, below 4,000. Um, I don't think so. I think we're very close to a turn here. Um, could be any day now. And I think it's off to the races again. Now, obviously, Iran's still sitting out there as a as a problem until that, you know, if we get a negotiated settlement and the straight opens up and oil prices come down and it looks like um Iran's been resolved at least for, you know, quite a while. Um I think that will that will cheer up investors everywhere, you know, stocks, bonds, uh metals, everything. So Iran's still kind of the big the big thing sitting out there that needs to get resolved, but you know, it's hard to know. Iran, you know, the Iranians play games. They talk like they're going to, you know, meet meet you and and have a settlement and then then the, you know, the terms change or they make ridiculous statements or what have you. I think you just have to let that play out. Um, you can't guess it. Um, but I do feel looking at just looking at the markets themselves, um, without, you know, without trying to guess Iran, it does look like we're very close to a turn in the metals and I think it will be off to the races.

[00:07:43]>> That's a great point because I think um, gold and silver, precious metals, they're basically a a mid a midterm investment at best, mid to long term.

[00:07:52]And I think what happens is we get caught up in in the short term, the short-term noise. And uh there may be a thousand short-term incidents that will happen before you even hit a midterm, much less even a long term. So I think, you know, we we lose sight of of the long-term investment. But it's interesting what with what you said about Iran because say let's if things should um calm down a bit will we then see the fundamentals start to take over the the psyche of investors uh where right now we're seeing more monetary policy uh taking over the the psyche of investors.

[00:08:32]>> Oh for sure. I mean, for sure because um you've got obviously at any time if a if a market and obviously going back to early February, you had a very overbought market. Um when you when you get something like an uncertainty of a war, it's obviously going to change the psyche of investors. It's obviously going to have them it's it's actually remarkable where we're that we're where we are. I mean people forget um in February um February yeah it was yeah before the I think before I ran it was either February or early March um silver was down to 62 and $62 and and gold had fallen down to 4200 I think it was maybe it's slightly below that um we're above those numbers the Iran war is not resolved yet. Um, it's remarkable. They've held steady. I I think the look there is very bullish.

[00:09:37]We've got, you know, wedge pattern in in both that look like they resolve to the upside in a in a pretty vertical way.

[00:09:45]Uh, so I I think it's just a matter of probably days before we're off to the races again. Who knows for sure, but um I do think it's going to be a strong summer and you could get all the way to my targets by Labor Day. You might not.

[00:10:00]If it stretches, you know, for another month, two or three, who cares? But I'm just saying it could happen that fast that we go from, you know, silver at 73 to silver at 200. We could go, you know, gold at 4,400 or slightly below to, you know, to gold 7,000. Those are remarkable runs if they can happen in the next three or four months.

[00:10:26]interesting where we're we're looking at these outlook for for silver prices for gold prices and um UBS at um the uh CNBC website UBS recently came out and said silver's breakout 2025 rally has created the conditions for demand destruction among buyers of the precious metals according to analysts. We love all these uh unnamed people. But David, at what price do you see demand destruction occurring with silver? I mean, we're looking at a $200 price target. And that demand destruction, would it come from a price spike or would it be continuous maintained elevated silver prices to to cause it?

[00:11:12]>> I I'm not sure where they're coming up with that. You never know exactly whether somebody's got a pre-ordained view of where silver should go after a big run and so they're coming up with a a reasoning a rationale for that or what. But you know we we all hear that the the amount of um silver required in in all these new technologies including AI uh in EV obviously um in solar panels etc. Silver solar demand is growing.

[00:11:44]it's not shrinking. Um, and yes, I I think I know where it's coming from.

[00:11:49]There's been talk about substitutions um with copper and things like that to try to, you know, be and that's that's an economic um postulate that's been around forever is when when prices rise for one good, you find a substitution if you can. So, you know, that can happen at the margin. I don't think it changes the supply demand picture in any meaningful way that would cause silver to sell off in any big way. And and those changes happen slowly. You can't immediately just say, "Okay, we're substituting copper for silver or we're doing this or that or we're just going to stop production because silver is too high." So, um, and and you've obviously heard the government say, "We're going to include silver in those those strategic metals that we need to kind of make sure we can can keep the supply coming." So, uh, I think I think you uh, and the other thing about silverber is it is a monetary um, uh, metal as well.

[00:12:53]It's, you know, yes, spy demand from an industrial standpoint is is more important silver than gold, but silver is still poor man's gold. You know, when gold moves because it's uh $4,400 on its way to $7,000. Uh there are lots of people that would prefer to buy silver at $75. So, so I I think it has a monetary component even though it is more of an industrial metal than gold is. So I you know I could be wrong but I don't think demand destruction is is the reason to be concerned here. I will say where where I think demand destruction will take place uh is not for that reason so much um but because we're I you know I have a a global bust forecast for next year um could start late this year even um but um if we go into global bust which you know just simply I'd say is something along the lines of 20089 where you have a big financial crisis accompanied by a a pretty severe downturn in the economy. Um if we see that, you're going to see demand in all industrial goods um you know fall and silver will will see that as well. So I that's where I think you can get the big correction in in the metals. you if if I'm right about targets or anywhere close, you know, you could have gold at 7,000 and see it fall maybe maybe to 4,000 or below.

[00:14:28]You know, certainly it back to 4,000 uh in a bust. If silver goes to 200 and I'm right that that's where it goes to, you know, silver could fall by more than 50% in a bust. So that's where I think you'll see the big correction. And and by the way, that should not be um something that shocks people. We just came through silver going from 122 to 60, you know, to to basically the low 60s. So, it got cut in half in a matter of days or in a matter of a couple weeks. So, so it's not uh it's not beyond belief to say that in a global downturn so could get hit by more than 50%. Um and gold could get hit by you know certainly 30 or 40%. So, so that's where I think um you you do get a big correction. And then coming out of that global bust, my longer term um forecast for gold is and target for gold is 20,000. My long-term target for silver uh which for a long time was uh $400 or $500. I raised that to a thousand recently. So I I see that as probably sometime out in the early 2030s.

[00:15:44]Um so you have to go through probably a weakness next year and then you know 28 to say 2032 could be you know unbelievable in terms of the the kind of price rises we see in the precious metals.

[00:16:00]>> Yeah. David I think you also adjusted your numbers for the S&P and and for NASDAQ uh those targets. Are we still in that that melt phase? And and when you talked about the bust, are these the two culprits that are really going to start that drain uh start that drain moving?

[00:16:17]>> Right. Right. Yeah. I did raise when I um raised my targets on the metals yesterday, I also raised my targets on all four of the indexes that I forecast.

[00:16:27]So the S&P um I increased that from um 9500 to 10,000. So that's I'm I I'm already before these raises I was way higher than anybody on the street, any strategist on the street. So these numbers may seem a little bit um wild, but I'm pretty confident in my my forecast and and I I raised SME to 10,000 from 9500. I raised the NASDAQ from 32,000 to 36,000.

[00:17:00]I raised my Dow target from 65,000 to 67,000 and I raised my Russell 2000 target from 3,800 to 4,000. So if you do the numbers on those, they are all probably somewhere between the low 30% and the high 30% type increase from cresant prices. Um, and I I think we could be there this summer. So that's a again a pretty pretty um amazing thing if we see it is that you could see 30% 30 to 40% increase in in the equity indexes in a matter of a few months. Why I make that call is because I believe we have entered not only are we in a meltup but we've entered the parabolic meltup stage which means it's going to go vertical here. My thesis all along is that if you go back and look at this whole cycle going back to probably 2009, um each successive leg has gotten steeper than the previous leg. And then what happens in in the final leg, which is what I think we've entered, um it goes vertical. You know, we we've seen it in Micron, we've seen it in Nvidia in past years. When when these things go parabolic, you cover an awful lot of ground in a hurry. And I think I think we when we came out of that that um Iran war correction back at 6,200 on the S&P and and ran up to 7500 here was the beginning of this thing really steepening. And it's funny to watch, you know, all the analysts on the street, a lot of commentators on the street, they keep wanting to see a correction because they just can't believe this thing can move that far. or you move over a thousand points and not correct. But that's what happens in a parabolic is yeah you can see one two or 3% pullbacks at any time based on Iran or you know news or anything else but you're not going to have a drawn out five or 10% correction or more I don't think until we reach the top. I'm I'm calling this now, you know, the it's a it's it's ultimately going to be the end of a 44 year secular bull market. I had been saying 43 years, but it it tracks back it dates back to August of 1982. So, we're coming up on that 44th anniversary. And I think it pretty much will be around that time where you could see uh a top of a secular bull market that goes back 40 plus years. Um and um and then I think you have a big bare market to follow. So global bust means it refers to the economy and the financial system. I think just like 2008, you're going to have a big financial um meltdown, financial crisis that accompanies the economic uh downturn and and then that'll be accompanied by a bare market that could could be as much as 80%. So the last bare market that was anything close to that was 1929 when we went down 90%.

[00:20:21]But I will remind people that in 20089 I believe it was that we we went down 66% I think in the S&P. So when people when I say 80% people go oh in this day and age that will never happen. You know they can print money they can do whatever. It was only last cycle that we had 66% decline. This one I think is going to be bigger. The reason I say that is because of the leverage in the system. you know, we are uh and I'm not talking just margin on stocks. I'm talking about overall leverage in in the global economy. You know, we're at 33 330 trillion and counting in global debt. A lot of it sovereign, but a lot of it private debt. A lot of it um you know, private credit, a lot of it's uh offbalance sheet credit. We've got we've got leverage everywhere. It is so much higher than it was in 2000 going into 2008. So it stands to reason that when we have a downturn that leverage is going to hit us even harder this time around. So you know that's kind of the thesis behind it but or the rationale behind it. But that's that's in a nutshell that's what where I think we're headed.

[00:21:35]>> You talked about the the meltup or you talked about parabolic. Uh but before we get to to to those two points, especially the the the downside, what what are the signs we we should be looking for that we are getting close to that market top?

[00:21:53]>> Yeah, I'm a I'm a contrarian. I've been a a contrarian my entire 53 year career.

[00:21:59]Um it comes naturally to me naturally to me. I mean, I learned it too. It was something that you you learn cycle to cycle to cycle how important sentiment is in markets. But but I'm naturally comfortable having a view that's completely opposite to the street. And uh and you know people people criticize me when when I'm that contrary and people criticize me when they think I'm consensus and they'll go I thought you were a contrarian. And I go, contrarian investing means at at the big turning points, at the big inflection points, you're probably going to be a lone wolf.

[00:22:36]You're going to be very alone in your view. But in the middle of the runs, a lot of times the consensus is right. And it's not, you know, I'm I'm not contrary just to be contrary. But what is going on right now is we are in the last stage, the last leg of a bull market. So yes, there's lots of bulls out there because um you know the market's come a long way from where I mean the Dow just to give you perspective the Dow at the bottom in 1982 I was running uh equity pension money back then and I was uh responsible for an entire you know the entire comp it was I was um corporate you know inside um you know They manage their own pension fund. So I was running their equity pension fund and I was responsible for making the call. So I I went in in August of 1982. The Dow was 780 or 782 was the bottom of the Dow in in 1982.

[00:23:40]From 782 we're now above 50,000. That's how far we've come in 44 year 43 plus years. Um and so um you know yes we're we're we've come a long way and yes in general the sentiment is bullish or you know when you look at kind of some of the um sentiment indicators and the um you know stochastics and things like that they all are up up high on their long-term uh numbers um you know very bullish or very overbought. That's to be expected given where we are from a uh shorter term perspective though there's still a lot of skepticism in in the you know certainly among institutional investors they fought this thing from the two from the 2022 bottom in October of 2022 all the way up till now you've heard invesial investors keep talking about well this thing is high valuation how far can it go it can't go much farther.

[00:24:44]You know, they they may raise their targets, but they don't raise them very far. That's all a sign that they have one foot out the door. They're they there is a wall of worry. Yes, they have to be invested. Yes. Yes. They're the tape has them, you know, they're basically, you know, pulled in by the momentum. So, I'm not saying they're bearish like bearish of October 22 or bearish like March of 2020, but they're skeptical and they're not they're not allin. What you will be looking for at the top is that allin mentality. when you start hearing um that um this market has legs, you know, the Fed, let's let's say well let's say the Iran war ends and oil falls into the 70s, which is my expectation, and then from there falls into the 60s.

[00:25:38]You're going to see the inflation indexes roll over. You're going to see the inflation indicators start indicating disinflation again. And you're going to hear people say, "Oh, the wind is at the Fed's back again.

[00:25:51]They can they can they can cut." Now, it doesn't mean they're going to cut in the next month or two, but it means they can build in that expectation that before the end of the year, you're going to see cuts. Right now, they don't believe you're going to see cuts. So, you're going to have that. You're going to have a look in the economy that's it's not roaring hot. It's it's moving along. And you know areas like manufacturing, durable goods are strong because of the big beautiful build and you know um because of reshoring etc because of AI and and the power buildout. All of that's going to keep the economy going.

[00:26:30]Um meanwhile under the surface, you know, the consumers weakening. Certainly half the consumers are really struggling, but they're going to have a little bit of relief if oil goes down, gas prices go down, um and some of the other inflation commodity, you know, commodity inflation turns turns over, uh rolls over. um you're going to that all is going to feed into institutional investors and and economists and strategists saying this thing's you know this thing's going to have legs. It's going to go for another two or three years. When you hear that and if it coincides with what I think is going to be a big runup here, big parabolical runup, it's at that point that I'm going to be starting to get nervous and and say I think I'm not going to be able to call the top. I'm not, you know, nobody can know until after the fact what the actual top is. But I think I think that's what's going to be certainly putting pressure on me to say enough is enough. I can't keep raising, you know, my targets. It's time to look the other way. I'll probably be early.

[00:27:40]My history through 53 years of doing this, both as a money manager and a strategist, is that I see things early and then I comment on them early. Um so you know I don't expect to be late >> when when we start to see all these moves. Uh surely there's going to be a type of a acid rotation started to happen. Do you think most investors will have time to to to move into this acid rotation or or will they also simply run out of time and and the markets will just the floor will start to fall from from beneath them?

[00:28:14]History will tell you at market tops you have the most people invested at market bottoms you have the least people invested. So people people tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms or and you know in between. But but so momentum you know FOMO um you know momentum of the tape is what I call it is what pulls investors to the bullish side. They can talk all they want about fundamentals, technicals, etc. Ultimately, it is momentum of the tape that kind of drives sentiment and and and people act on their sentiment.

[00:28:52]Um, I should say this because I'm not sure everybody understands this. The reason the reason you want to be bearish when everybody's bullish is because people have already acted on that bullishness.

[00:29:05]when when institutions are saying, you know, we're bullish to the moon, you know, we think, I'm not saying they're saying that now, but when they say we're really optimistic, this thing can run for two or three years.

[00:29:17]That doesn't mean they're just beginning to invest, that means they've acted on that. When when strategists and institutional investors are saying, uh, I think this thing's going a lot lower, that doesn't mean they're about to sell.

[00:29:30]That means they've already sold. They're they've already acted on what they're telling you. So when when everybody is fully bullish, most of that's already taken place. And again, I'm not talking about I'm talking generality. It doesn't mean there aren't still people buying every day. But but so in answer your question at the top, everybody, you know, both retail and institutional will be allin and that's why the next step will be to start moving it the other way. And then as they come out they don't all you they don't just sell everything at the top or or you after it roll you know starts rolling over they gradually the the the um de accumulation stage or the you know where they're where they're taking money off the table where they're removing and they're selling stocks that happens through the entire bare market. It doesn't doesn't all happen at the you know in most of it doesn't happen at the top. Most of it happens closer to the bottom. And by the way, when we get into a bare market, it won't be you know from 10,000 down. I'm calling let's say I'm I'm calling for an 80% um bare market.

[00:30:45]So let's say 10,000 is a top on the S&P.

[00:30:48]That's 2,000 is where it would head for in those numbers. It's either go 10,000 2,000 in a month. you know, it's going to you might have a step down where you're down 20 or 30% and then you bounce and then you go down again or you might go down, you know, even a bigger step and then have a you know, you'll probably have at least one and probably two, maybe three bare market rallies within the bare market. So, you know, you could go down 40 or 50% and then have retrace half of that decline over two or 3 months and then down another, you know, 30 or 40% retrace that um 50% or what have you. So, so it will take time for the bare market will play out over you know 8 10 12 months. It won't it won't be something that happens over a month.

[00:31:41]Japan went into its uh the government went into its equities markets uh bond markets ran uh low to zero rates for some 30 years I believe if let's say the Fed has to buy up treasuries uh goes into the equities markets um may even go into um some type of uh nationalization of mines or at least buying up shares in mines uh low to no interest rates How does this affect both the investor and the contrarian investor?

[00:32:16]>> Good question. So, you're right. Japan Japan's done zero interest rate policy for decades and they're starting to see the downside of that policy. You know, it works until it doesn't. As as as you do that, you're ultimately creating an inflation problem down the road, right?

[00:32:38]So they're starting to see that and their interest rates are starting to break out to the upside. They have very little wiggle room because they are so leveraged to, you know, the government did so much that they are probably going to be one of the reasons why the bust is so severe or why the economy and and system is so severe because they spent as you say 30 years doing this. Um, but I think they are one of the wild cards or one of the real potential problems in the bust. We will and and again the globe will see if I'm right about a global bust and I say it's bigger than 2008. It's the biggest downturn uh combined with a financial crisis since the great depression. It's a bust.

[00:33:24]It's not a depression. It's not going to be drawn out. And the reason it's not going to be drawn out over many years is because of central banks. We will see just like we saw in 20089 that now right now they're saying we're not going to do that again. We you know we realize the error of our ways. Jerome Powell was quoted many times saying when we're not going we're not going back to zero interest rate policy. We're not going back to QE infinity. Those were bad policies. We learned our we we learned from our lessons. Uh Kevin Worsh would say the same thing if you asked him. Um he wants to in fact shrink the balance sheet now, right? Not not right now, but I mean he's talking about needing to do that at some point here.

[00:34:11]Um so so these guys all think, okay, we're not going to see 20089 again.

[00:34:17]That's easy to say. But if if you get something that happens very fast where you know because of leverage things go from seemingly okay to bad very quickly like they did in October of 2008.

[00:34:30]Um they're going to abandon that now.

[00:34:33]They're going to be reluctant to abandon that because their mindset is we know what we shouldn't have done last time.

[00:34:39]We're not going to do that again. Uh so they're going to be slow to respond.

[00:34:44]they're going to respond, but they'll do it in kind of baby steps. And and when you have a very leveraged system, baby steps don't work, right? Things can happen fast. So, so every delay is going to lead to some real problems and they'll they'll then take another step towards doing what they should do, but not nearly big enough because they're reluctant because they're they're fighting the 20089 war and saying, "We learned our lessons. We're not going to do that again." And and ultimately what I'm saying is it will take and not just the Fed but all central banks it will take them some time to get to a rightsized policy.

[00:35:25]They'll be you know that's where people make a mistake. They think it's either you ease or you tighten. No, it's how much are you easing? You know it's when you're in a crisis it's it's what what is the needed policy? You know, in 2020, we had to do55 trillion dollars to pull us out of that mess, right? I'm I'm estimating this time it could be 20 trillion out of the Fed and and if it's 20 out of the Fed, it's, you know, 50 or more out of the the world's central banks. And that will be accompanied by a lot of fiscal expansion as well. So, that's what you'll see, but you won't see it early on. You'll see it. You won't see it in in timely enough fashion to head off a bust. At least my my forecast is um it will be in response to a bus. They will they will have delayed and delayed enough that the bus will hit. That's why we'll have a bust and then they will I I can say with all kinds of confidence. I know they'll respond. And it's just when they respond and they won't be responding in anticipation. They will be responding in after the fact. They'll respond to the crisis. So, we will have the bust, but we will also have a very quick, relatively quick recovery after that.

[00:36:50]Because if you print 20 trillion, and that's 20 trillion after a Fed that was only 875 billion total from 20 from 1913 to 2008.

[00:37:03]You know, in 2008, we entered October 2008 with 875 billion on our balance sheet. And now we're talking about well, you know, we went up to nine trillion in the pandemic, backed off to six and a half, and now we're talking about it maybe being 30 trillion. We've come a long way, baby, from from 875 billion.

[00:37:25]Um, but but that's if you do that, that does everything you asked about. That that means money's obviously to to do 20 trillion means they're buying every treasury in sight. Treasury bill, Treasury note, Treasury bond, and they're probably buying, you know, mortgage back securities. They're buying um maybe they will buy stocks this time.

[00:37:49]Who knows? But um my guess is that'll be way down the road if they do it. Um but they'll be and they'll be finding places for that money. Like I said, it'll be accompanied by fis fiscal expansion, too. They will be bailing out pension funds. I would guess they'll be bailing out money market funds or at least, you know, like they did in 2008, you know, don't break we won't break the buck um type of policy. you know, they'll be doing everything they can to keep the system together because without that, the system would break because with what I always say is what I've been saying for a number of years now is we are at the we are in the last decade of a super cycle which I define as this the long cycle between two depressions.

[00:38:43]So between the 1930s and what I think will be the 20 mid 2030s depression. So this is not the depression. This is the the um shot across the bell before the depression.

[00:38:56]Um so it's a bus because they have because they have a printing press this time around and they can print. You know, if we're in a bust, we're in deflation because we're, you know, we're at 3% inflation, let's say, or three and a half% inflation. Now, if oil goes to 60 again or 50, you know, you're back down to 1 or 2% inflation and and that means you're heading into a maybe the worst downturn in a hundred years. Um, and with one or two% inflation, we'll be in deflation during the bust. So, if we're in deflation during the bust, central banks have almost infinite ability to print money, right? if things are falling, they're not going to worry about inflation. Um, so you're going to have infinite ability and that's why you can have another recovery.

[00:39:48]When we when we go through the next cycle that will be driven by all that money and fis fiscal monitor expansion, you're going to have a big inflation cycle with a lag. It won't, you know, we don't go from deflation to high inflation all at once, but over the course of six, seven, eight years, inflation will go from negative to maybe 25% in this country, in the US. Um, so it's worse than the early 80s. Interest rates will go from zero to maybe high teens or 20% for bonds. you know, long treasure bills will probably be, you know, 22 3% or more. Um, so if you've got and you won't have you won't have fixed your fiscal problem because you're actually going to expand fiscal so that the 40 trillion we talked about today as government debt that could be up 50% or more, maybe even double from there. Um, and and 330 trillion global debt could be 500 trillion global debt. So you can have even more leverage, but this time around, meaning the early 30s, you're going to be looking at high double-digit interest rates. And how do you service debt with high double- digit interest rates? You can't service it at 5%, right? We're eating up our entire budget at 5%. How how the heck do we do it at 10 or 15 or 20? So, so that's what I think the longer picture of what we're doing. Uh, you know, where we're heading. There's there's one last very exciting blowoff here in the next two, three, four months. But don't get overly excited about that because what comes after that, I think, is going to be pretty negative.

[00:41:40]>> You know, David, that that's one thing with policy makers. They can promise everything they want, but unless I see a rainbow around that promise, I'm thinking twice about about what they say.

[00:41:51]>> Well, let me just respond to that because what we've done is each successive cycle we came out of the Great Depression with all kinds of capacity, right? The capacity was there's plenty of excess capacity. There was no inflation. We had a world war. uh we came out of that world war with pent-up demand uh consumer demand and housing demand etc. We've gone cycle to cycle to cycle to cycle to cycle with each successive cycle um leading to more debt, more excesses, more inflation. And then that required each successive cycle required more cranking down in terms of fiscal policy and and monetary policy.

[00:42:36]and we'd overshoot and we'd have each successive cycle generally we'd have a bigger correction and then we'd go um blow it back up again and then crank it down. We if you look at the cycles all the way back to you know the great depression to forward to now each successive cycle is getting more extreme. We've now reached that crazy time. That's why it's been so crazy. We had 20089, then we had, you know, we have what I'm calling for here so quickly on top of that because normally you have something like 20089 and that's generational. And you say, well, it'll be many cycles before we get there. But we've been blowing up the cycles to, you know, bigger excesses and bigger imbalances each time. And it's like somebody described as a buggy whip. You know, the, you know, the cycles get more volatile. And we're at that last, you know, in that last 10 years of that super cycle. So that what it what it really is is this is one big Ponzi scheme and we're reaching the end of the Ponzi scheme where the music stops and you find out that there's really nothing underneath this. You know, it was all blown up by debt and and money, you know, and currency.

[00:43:53]So, just kind of to sum up everything we've talked about, >> you mentioned pensions and and I wanted to ask you because during the the the Biden administration, uh he basically gave fiduciaries the green light to go ahead and and invest people's pensions in ESG types of uh uh programs, I guess, or or portfolios, um environmental, social governance. Uh fiduciary responsibilities were gone. They basically had the green light just go ahead and move people's money in there.

[00:44:24]Today we have Larry Frink talking about pension funds again and moving them into AI types of portfolios. I guess you having knowledge of pension funds. Is this the right thing to be doing?

[00:44:37]>> Absolutely. Uh I mean we we we're pension funds um both private and public. There's so many issues. One, you know, they they tend to be like everybody else. They're they're fighting the last war. or they're copying what should have been done last time or what have you. But so, you know, they decided many years ago um I think uh Yale may have been one of the first and they were so successful in their endowment that you know Harvard copied it etc. But they decided long ago that hey we need alternative investments in our pension portfolios because it it you know we don't have the volatility we get from market portfolios. you know, if you if you buy public stocks and public bonds, you know, you have volatility, but if you buy private equity and private uh credit, um it gets doesn't get marked to market every day. So, they and they decided that that in their infinite wisdom was somehow reducing risk. And so, we've got that. Well, what what you know when when we're going into what I'm describing, the worst thing you can have is leverage, right? What what did we used to call private equity? Leverage leverage buyouts, you know, Mike Milin leverage buyouts. So they they they came up with a pretty name, private equity, but leverage, they're very leveraged. Um private credit obviously is another, you know, it's more leverage in in their portfolios uh uh and and less less transparency.

[00:46:09]So we are looking at both public and private pension funds as well as endowments as well as institutional portfolios loaded with this kind of stuff that I think you know is going to show up as a a bad decision when when all the when when you know the proverb proverbial crap hits the fan. Um you know it's going to be it's going to be tough. Um and and that not to mention like you said all the ESG and whenever we decide um that we're going to use we're going to encourage retail to do things that they never did before because institutional do does it.

[00:46:50]It usually turns out to be they're getting the the wrong end of the the curve. You know, they're they're getting it after all the money's been made. You know, they're going in at the top. So, I I you know, there's a lot of problems out there. Those are some of them.

[00:47:04]>> David Hunter, before we head out, can you let the good people know how they can follow you and get more of your views?

[00:47:12]>> Sure. I'm I'm on X every day. My way of communicating is through replies because I have 300,000 followers and it allows, you know, so I I'm, you know, I'm communicating to people who who have learned to how I work and kind of understand it.

[00:47:29]If you follow me, you have to get your settings set up so that you see replies.

[00:47:34]I'll have somebody who's followed me for a number of years and they'll go, I haven't seen you in two years. Where have you been? And I'll go, I'm on there every day. I probably post a dozen or two or three dozen posts a day. Your settings are not set up to see that. So, so people have to figure that one out. I can't do it for them, but um just so people understand how how my my uh feed works. Anyway, um and then I put out a quarterly letter um by subscription. So that means there's a cost to it. Um it it is a macro letter. Um I have lots of retail people. It was originally an institutional letter. I started writing in 2000 after I retired. Um I realized that hey I you know I write pretty plainly people you know retail people can understand it. So I started offering it to uh you know a sprinkling of retail and it's now grown into it's more retail letter than anything but it's the same letter um and you know I don't do any give any advice. I don't make recommendations. It's just basically I make my forecasts and and give my ration for why I believe what I believe. So um but if people are interested um they can direct message me which means use the X chat uh and I will provide them the details for the you know cost and what's involved in signing up for it.

[00:49:00]>> Yeah. No, I appreciate that. And it's um it's good to get in contact with David because David he will respond. So if you guys got questions out there, go ahead and uh and let him know what what they are. David Hunter, we want to thank you.

[00:49:13]want to thank you tremendously for your time and I I hope we can do this again soon and let's see how summer comes into play.

[00:49:20]>> Yeah, let's see how much fun we have. It could be a lot of fun.

[00:49:24]>> Thanks, Patrick.

[00:49:24]>> All right, thanks again, David. That was the contrarian, David Hunter, sharing his views on the economy and precious metals.

[00:49:32]And if you own or are thinking of owning precious metals, consider giving us a call. We actively manage precious metals portfolios to optimize them for today's macro environment. Visit us at www.octusmetals.com.