I Wasn't Going To Post Another Video Until This Happened Minutes Ago!

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Ladies and gentlemen, boy has it been a while since my last video. And to be honest, I was unsure whether I would continue to make YouTube videos anymore.

[00:00:10]But what I've seen happening in the financial markets, but more importantly in the world has given me the motivation to come back with another warning.

[00:00:19]Because like many of my lure viewers know, I do not like to speculate on what could happen today or what could happen tomorrow in the markets or the short term. always try to give long-term predictions on what I see happening in the economic cycles and in the markets over the long term because as we continue to see in the news cycle, one week there is going to be uh peace talks between the US and Iran and then all of a sudden the peace talks are over and the market continues to go up and down.

[00:00:48]There is huge amounts of manipulation and huge amounts of noise. But people, besides all the political theater that is going on, I see a very very disturbing long-term trend. What's happening with the economy, what's happening with geopolitics, and also what's happening with the financial system. So everyone, let's not waste any time. Let's get straight into the news, the facts, and the data. Well, okay, everyone. First things first, what I want to talk about is what's happening with private credit. But then also I'm going to be giving updates about how this war with Iran is going to have significant consequences for the economy for your purchasing power, but also why the monetary system needs this war. So look at this headline here. How private credit cracks are threatening to deepen private equity woes. Now, I'm going to break this down very, very simple because I'm a simple man and I want you to understand it in simple terms because a lot of these hedge funds, a lot of these private equity investors try to make it sound like it's so complicated so the public doesn't understand what's really going on. After 2008, a lot of the major banks were now regulated, they could no longer take on a lot of these very risk investments. So, that's when private equity came in. And what have we had happen over the past 20 years? Well, interest rates just kept getting lower and lower. So, it seemed like these very, very risky investments were not so risky after all. But what has happened over the past few years? While we're seeing this so-called transitory inflation, which was just meant to be temporary in 2020 and 2021, continue to spiral out of control. What this means is interest rates are now going to be going up. I think not to short term, but we're going to start to see a reverse like what we saw in the 1970 stagflation period. We're going to see a prolonged period of interest rates steadily going up and up. What this is going to lead to is these private loans or these uh private investments with these private equity firms. Well, we're going to see them go bust because a lot of investors uh well, they'll say, "Well, look, if I can get a six or a 7% return uh in US treasuries or a safer uh asset class, I'm not going to all of a sudden invest my money in these highly speculative assets." And that's what we're seeing happen right now. We're seeing redemption hit record highs and the Federal Reserve is beginning to panic because look at this. Fed seeks details on US banks exposure to private credit firms because they're saying well look this is just um only limit to private credit and so only the big you know investors will lose and there won't be any systemic issues to the financial system but the big issue is if this causes people to lose uh investor confidence if they no longer start investing in the big banks if they no longer start investing the S&P 500 well then that has a domino effect all of a sudden consumers become less confident they spend less the economy layoffs start to happen and then once the layoff start to happen the economy weakens and this causes broader economic downturns.

[00:03:49]So it says here the Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry. That's right. We're seeing a private credit bank run. You could say the Federal Reserve's queries are intending to assess level of stress in private credit industry and potential for it to spill over to wider financial system because again the biggest risk to the financial system is not what we know. The risks that we know about, it's the unexpected.

[00:04:17]That's what the markets hate. The Treasury Department is also questioning uh the insurance industry about exposure to private credit as part of broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry. That's another big risk. If a lot of these insurance companies that have speculated into these highly uh risky uh investments, if all of a sudden they go bust, that could really cause a huge financial crisis.

[00:04:44]So, okay, we know things are bad for private credit, but what could possibly make it worse? Well, this is the war with Iran. And I'm not going to go too deep in the geopolitics and the history of this conflict because that's out of my area of expertise. But I will cover is what we're seeing right now. We're seeing fuel costs skyrocket. And fuel is the engine for the economy. It makes everything else more expensive. Your groceries, they get delivered by trucks.

[00:05:09]Farmers use trucks. They use a lot of their machinery. Takes diesel. And this is very very expensive. So if the input cost for everything goes up then that means everything else is going to go up too because look at this again. This is a lot of political theater. Trump says oh we got a peace deal. Uh we're going to have peace talks. The market rallies on Friday when we really find out no things are actually much worse than expected. So resumption of hostilities are se ship vessel attacks push US Iran ceasefire toward brink. show shipping traffic in the Gulf came to hold again after vessels came under fire mid passage. Much will hinge on whether the US and Iran will meet for another round of talks in Pakistan later this week uh as a ceasefire expires on Tuesday. If a deal is reached, it could take months to claw back supply lost over recent weeks of closures keeping all prices elevated for longer. So again people, like I was saying earlier in the video, I'm not focusing on the short term here when there could be a ceasefire and then the market could rally for a week. I'm looking at the long-term trends. What are we seeing in the world? We're seeing it become increasingly more hostile.

[00:06:14]We're seeing wars get worse, not better.

[00:06:17]It first started with Russia, Ukraine.

[00:06:19]Then it started with Israel and Palestine. Now we're starting to see the Middle East conflict continue to break out. We're seeing more and more tensions in Asia as well. So I think these conflicts are just going to get worse and not going to get better. And so this is very very bad for the financial system because a lot of investors and a lot of banks were betting on interest rates to go down because remember a lot of their loans on their balance sheet had huge losses because they issued these loans at very very low interest rates and then all of a sudden these bonds lost value because investors say well why would I buy a mortgage with a 3% interest rate when I can buy a mortgage that has a six or 7% interest rate and we're seeing the US CPI I surge as well. Look at this. US CPI surges 0.9% in largest monthly jump since 2022 on gas. Now, US inflation surged in March. Like I said, due to the conflict, a record increase in gas prices were responsible for nearly 3/4 of the monthly advance. Again, Australians or in the UK, they will say petrol or diesel. Economists anticipate high costs are likely to persist in near-term even if the US truce holds. there's a rapid resolution to a conflict as oil output normalizes. So again, first we're seeing the huge spike in fuel, gas prices, but then this is going to lead to higher home prices because construction is going to be more expensive. Groceries are going to be more expensive, utilities are going to be more expensive, and this is leading to consumers losing huge amounts of confidence. And we just saw the lowest consumer sentiment on record. Look at this. So, US consumer sentiment drops to record low on price concerns. So, US consumer sentiment fell to a record low uh due to increasing worries about mounting inflation caused by the Iran war. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year and they see costs rising at an annual rate of 3.4% over the next 5 to 10 years. Well, even if we just take the current rate of 0.9% that means and when we annualize that we're having over doubledigit official CPI numbers. Now, when we know the real cost going up, we're going to see more like 20 to 30% inflation. I think when you look at the cost of living, should I say, uh, increase. And I can already see it now.

[00:08:38]I know a lot of family, a lot of friends, they're really struggling. when I just speak to people on the street, when I go to the grocery store and pick to speak to the checkout person, everyone's complaining about fuel costs, everyone's struggling. Um, you know, again, I don't like to just go off the official government statistics because we are losing huge amounts of confident in uh the governments, not just the US government, the Australian government, European government. We like to say, you know, we're the gold standard. We we have so much integrity. Our data is so accurate. No people, the data is very very inaccurate. And when you just speak to real average people, it looks like we are not just in a severe recession, but a deep, deep recession, which may lead to a depression. If we see stagflation, that's when prices keep going up. They have to lift interest rates. We go into an official deep recession. Even though now when you speak to average y, it does feel like a real recession, but prices keep going up. So everyone, what this simply means is the economy is going to be very bad. Inflation is going to get worse. We're going to see a lot of these private equity firms like Blue Owl go bust. This could cause contagion in the insurance industry, which could cause a financial crisis. But what a lot of people uh tend to misinterpret is they think, well, okay, this is going to mean a 50 to a 60% stock market crash. And while this may happen, what I keep trying to remind my audience and remind or should I say new viewers, I'm sure my audience already knows this. Just because the stock market doesn't go down doesn't mean we're going to see a crash in living standards, a crash in the real world economy because they can just keep printing money. They can just keep devaluing the currency and the stock market may remain flat or it may not crash. But that doesn't mean we're facing a severe economic downturn. For example, Venezuela, their stock market surged. Do they have a great economy?

[00:10:35]No. It's just that their currency kept being devalued. And that's why we haven't seen a huge crash yet because they keep printing money. They keep devaluing the currency because if they don't, well, then they're not going to be able to repay the debt. Debt is so high for the US government and all Western governments. They need to keep the money printers going. They need to keep devoing that debt so they can keep paying it. So, I know you're thinking, well, okay, what can we do about this to protect our wealth? Well, what is the big money doing? The central banks doing just got a new report and this is huge, people. And I always talk about gold and silver. I don't think you should just only invest in gold and silver if you don't have huge amounts of money to invest. I would simply be buying food. I would have an emergency fund. I would go ahead and stock up on groceries cuz they're going to get more expensive. uh try to um have at least six months worth of food supply. That's something you can do before you invest in gold. But look at this report here. Gold overtakes US treasuries in central bank reserves. We can see here foreign treasury holdings and world gold holdings reserves. We can see gold is now 24% over US treasuries 21%. Because a lot of these foreign governments, they're losing faith in the US dollar. They know that fiat currency, which again, every single fiat currency in history has failed, is, you know, getting close to its expiry date. So, they're buying the one currency that has stood the test of time, has stood every single empire that has risen or fallen, and that is gold and silver. So, that's what I'm doing. Again, something you may want to do, not financial advice, but I'm just looking what the big money is doing. Follow the money, and it will give you huge, huge clues. But everyone, what do you think about this private equity crisis and what do you think about this inflatious crisis, this war going on with Iran? Let me know down below. Now, for my loyal viewers and subscribers still watching, it is great to be back. Great to be uploading new content again to keep you informed. Let me know what content you want me to post soon. Thanks for watching. You're awesome. I'll see you all in the next