Cheap Electricity | Petroleum Levy | Breaking Views | Daniyal Aziz | Abid Suleri | Farhan Bokhari

Ajouté : 2026-06-02

[00:00:17]In the program you are called a sycophant.

[00:00:19]I am Asadullah Khan. The budget is about to come after Eid and obviously we are discussing it right now.

[00:00:24]Talks are going on with the IMF. There are some IMF conditions. Some governments have tried to impose their conditions. We have put forward some of our demands or you can say that we have made some requests to the IMF that the condition of our people is not good. In some places the government is asking for relief. But till now IMF has found many such places where there is talk of imposing more taxes on the people.

[00:00:44]Where there is a matter of increasing the petroleum levy or generating additional funds and then the revenue of the FBR has to be increased. So these are all the targets that the IMF is asking Pakistan to set. If the budget is prepared in the same manner, which is possible, then it will be a very difficult budget. This means that the tax burden on the public may increase further.

[00:01:07]How much increase is there in new taxes in the budget? It is being said that Vifak is imposing new taxes worth Rs 215 billion. The states have also been asked to generate an additional Rs 430 billion.

[00:01:19]Apart from this, we have got figures regarding the petroleum levy that we have collected ₹2700 billion in 2 years which is a record and this time we are going to keep a sum of ₹1727 billion in petroleum levy in just one year due to which petrol will become more expensive. This means that if the prices of petroleum products fall in the global market, they may not fall that much in Pakistan because the levy will increase. This will be a difficult situation. Then our power sector is on the verge of disaster. Be it capacity payments or circular debt, Pakistan is stuck in the power sector from all sides. The impact of which also falls on the industry. It is also coming up on exports. We are not able to meet our export targets.

[00:02:00]Our import bill has already increased. There has been an increase in foreign exchange losses.

[00:02:04]So, where will Kushan be present for the government despite this so that it can provide relief to the people? This is a complicated question. That's the question I'm going to put to my guests today.

[00:02:14]Daniyal Aziz sahab is present with me in the studios. There are reasons for past events. He is a senior politician.

[00:02:18]Thank you very much. Daniyal Sahib calls you a flatterer. Dr. Abid Sulhari Sahib is present with us. The Executive Director is SDPI. He is an expert in social work.

[00:02:25]Thank you very much. Dr. Abid Sulhari Sahib and Farhan Ali Bukhari Sahib are present with us.

[00:02:28]You are a senior journalist. Have been covering the economy for a long time.

[00:02:33]Thank you very much Farhan Bukhari sir, you too in the Khushamdid program. What will this budget be like? Farhan Bukhari sir, I am starting with you.

[00:02:42]What do you think the public should expect from this budget?

[00:02:45]Yes, thank you very much. In short, the common man should not have any expectations from this budget.

[00:02:52]No good tawak should be kept. The reason for this is that there is a pile of problems.

[00:02:58]Whereas as far as resources are concerned, they are still less. There is a gap in the middle. There is a gap called deficit. To fulfill this, the information is that the government is considering many difficult decisions, that is, such decisions which will bring more problems for the people.

[00:03:19]And look at all this, you too have seen the country's efforts for many years.

[00:03:25]I have been observing for a long time that this whole atmosphere is unfortunately not new for Pakistan.

[00:03:34]How much should we blame the IMF?

[00:03:37]After all, they have given us money. So the one who gives the money also imposes some conditions.

[00:03:42]This phenomenon also occurs along local surface banks.

[00:03:45]Whose borrowers fall victim to difficulties. The same is the case on the backwater surface.

[00:03:51]And this is happening because Pakistan has not taken any tough decisions for its people in its country for a long time.

[00:04:00]We constitute less than 3% of Pakistan's total population who are tax filers. And it is not necessary that all the filers pay or have been paying taxes. The meaning of that filer is that by becoming filers the people took the wedding procession. For example, as a filer, he bought expensive cars and on top of that, as a filer, he paid half the tax amount which comes under income head and is double for non-filers, so to save money, people went there and declared themselves as filers but when it came to tax, they made almost no contribution or no contribution, you get to see many such examples and then unfortunately, you can see our royal style on the level of loyalty, on the level of provinces, on the level of provinces, the examples of unmatched Punjab are there in every respect and many more examples of this kind are found. When you look at the ways of this Arab Ikhtidaar, it does not seem that he has any connection with this country, or leave alone a deep connection, there is no connection at all.

[00:05:15]Sir, a budget of ₹16 crore has been given for the renovation of Wazir Azam House. It was approved just a few days ago.

[00:05:23]So what you are saying is absolutely right.

[00:05:25]But now, as you said, less than 3% of people file taxes.

[00:05:29]Abid Suhari Sahib, the government also has this complaint and the government says that if you do not pay the tax then it is our compulsion. We will impose indirect taxes. Will impose indirect taxes and collect levy on petrol.

[00:05:39]Now petroleum levy is a levy.

[00:05:40]In the last program, Dan Aziz Sahib had just explained to us that Petroleum Development Levy is a levy for development but it is being collected as a tax. The government says that we are doing this because people are not paying taxes, so from where will we meet our expenses? So the public's complaint is correct, Doctor Sahib, that we are paying so much indirect taxes that from where will we pay more taxes?

[00:05:59]Because we are already paying ₹122 tax on petrol.

[00:06:02]We are paying tax on soap bars. We are paying tax on shampoo bottles. What do we do?

[00:06:06]How much more taxes should we pay? So is the government's complaint correct or the public's?

[00:06:11]I think both are right in their own places.

[00:06:14]But now we will have to look into the Petroleum Development Levy which is currently an unlimited levy.

[00:06:22]Where did it originate from? This was the sixth budget of PMLN in 2017. The 17-1 team of Miftah Ismail Sahib and Shahid Khagan Abbasi Sahib and the Wafaq at that time was in a huge slip deficit. The money from the Petroleum Development Levy does not have to be collected and given to the states. Therefore, in that budget, its limit was increased so that Wafaq can collect more petroleum development levy.

[00:06:50]And the same formula is still in use.

[00:06:53]If Petroleum Development Levy is required to curb fiscal deficit, then a better way is to convene a meeting of the Council of Common Interest. In that, the province and Wafaq should sit together and finalize the discussion on NFC.

[00:07:10]Now if we look at NFC, there has been no further communication with him for almost 14 years.

[00:07:18]So there are some fundamental things.

[00:07:20]Secondly, if we look at the FBR, it probably does not have the political will or the implementation capacity to collect taxes. If you look at the total FPR taxes, then around 100 of our big companies, which we call large taxpayers, pay more than half of your FPR tax, so it means that you need 100 officers to deal with those 100 companies, after that, if this huge structure that has been created for the rest of Pakistan is able to collect total taxes of less than 90% FPR, then this is a matter of great concern. Just look at Islamabad. In Islamabad, if you and I, Daniyal Sahab, all of us go to a restaurant to eat. How many restaurants are there that will give you POS receipts? We pay our full GST. Be it by credit card or by cash. Even when you go to a five star hotel to have tea etc., they do not give you POS receipt. So if the FBR sitting in Islamabad is not able to collect the GST paid by the consumers from the restaurants, then the rest of the direct taxes are a far cry.

[00:08:36]But this time when I read the MEFP given by the Government of Pakistan to the IMF, then Bukhari Sahib or you Galban who were referring to the income revenue, the government has commented in it that FBR reforms will be done and the taxes of ₹15 in Wafaq will be collected through FBR reforms through better enforcement, through risk based audit and by doing CCTV monitoring of textile sector and beverage sector. Now it remains to be seen how much the government willfully implements it and how the FPR can be implemented. Direct taxes will increase only then indirect taxes will decrease. Okay, absolutely correct. Now, in this, we could not achieve the target of tax collection of FBR which Daniel Sahib had set.

[00:09:34]What do you think are the reasons for not achieving it? And the next target we are going to set is realistic.

[00:09:38]Yes, the biggest and most important thing in this is that Langdal Sahib, the Chairman of FBR, gave a statement in the Standing Committee on Finance, which became the pride of all the newspapers, that I am being prevented from collecting taxes.

[00:09:52]And if Majeed is stopped then I will start taking names. So from here it becomes clear that there is no need to go anywhere far to do any analysis or any taziya.

[00:10:02]The government itself is telling us what the issue is? Now, in the IMF staff report that has just come out, in the most recent third review of EFF, they have clearly named it. That means he told that there is agriculture tax, retail trade tax and along with that real estate tax. The government is failing very badly on these three issues. Let me give you a recent example.

[00:10:24]Here in Islamabad, the richest area of ​​Pakistan and Rawalpindi. So here the FBR revised the valuation of the land for income tax purposes upwards which was still lower than the market rate but higher than before. On top of that, some real estate moguls got pricked and there was a bit of commotion. Within a week all those notifications disappeared. Took back the government.

[00:10:46]Good.

[00:10:46]And after a month in the month of January, I am telling you about this December incident.

[00:10:50]When it was re-notified in the month of January, many areas were missing from it. Whether it was left or not, it was missing from it. That means they were deleted. So if you have to do such a haphazard implementation then how will the public take any impression from it when 85% of the fuel is used by our two wheelers and three wheelers, that is, their main transportation is the main part of their employment. On top of that you have created a 116% tax actuation. Whereas on the other things, somewhere 15, somewhere 12, somewhere two, that is, most of the people who are on top of them have been beheaded. So you see in this that when you give exemption to such rich areas, their notification itself gets withdrawn.

[00:11:33]Then what should people take away from it and since I have told you what Langdal Saheb said, now it will be seen in this budget that there is a lot of scope for tax collection especially at the provincial level. Especially agriculture tax, various items of excise and service tax. Now you see how big a part the services have become of Pakistan's overall economy.

[00:11:53]But their tax is not matching. The same is the case with agriculture.

[00:11:57]And similarly, if you look at real estate, it is almost non-existent.

[00:12:01]So, they are bringing unique schemes where you will get a trade certificate for the property and we have started it from Lodhra and similar schemes are also coming in Punjab and Islamabad etc. That means ways are being found to facilitate them. The method to bring them on par is not being used. Whereas what was announced to us when all these taxes were levied was that we would be equal.

[00:12:22]No one will get undue relief in this and instead of doing equality, the government said that we will also tie stones. Now you see, there was a lot of discussion about Aurangzeb Saheb earlier, so many meetings have been held. This much is left. So many reviews have been done. We are down sizing, right sizing. Where did he go? A single rupee can tell this in 2 years. for 1 minute for 1 minute. Then within a month on Foreign Mission Abroad, they told that you should present the report of right sizing to Dar Sahib, that report has passed many months and years but no report has come, so this is a non-serious attitude in this, their expenses are increasing and not decreasing and secondly, the situation is such that the item of taking loan in Pakistan is also going up, that is, in these two years, this government has contracted a new loan of 14 trillion, so where every Pakistani was a debtor of ₹1 lakh, now 333 have become debtors of ₹3,000.

[00:13:11]Are loans being taken because the government gives so much money to the states under NFC that it is left with nothing and then it has to take loans to meet its expenses? It's not like that.

[00:13:19]Who told them to pile up the debt? Right now, more than half of your federal budget, almost all of your direct revenue, is going towards interest payments. So who told him to take so much loan? And what have we been given for that loan? And after this, whatever losses you see, these state enterprises have been known for 40 years that we have to privatize them. For the last 40 years, those lists are being made in every government which started from the Haq era and has been going on, Jajo sahab twice, Benazir twice, Nawaz Sharif thrice, in all these governments, even Musharraf Pervez sahab's loyalty, what privatization has happened, those losses have reached 1.2-1.3 trillion every year, so you can bear that, sell them, you know you sold Karachi Electric, it has been 18 years, in 18 years you did not sell another disco. Why didn't you sell it? You know these losses are happening, so if you stem the bleeding, these losses will be reduced. If you just do n't increase the tax rate. Just implement the taxes as they are. You know that the scope that is still there in the sales tax price is called C ratio.

[00:14:18]This is given in the IMF report which is currently at around 18 to 20%. If you take it at 25%, you will get more collection from these taxes. You are not doing it at all.

[00:14:28]Your implementation is not there. And Langdiyal Sahib is saying that I am being stopped.

[00:14:31]So what are we excels at then? So why do you ruin the provinces?

[00:14:35]Already the expenditure on education and health is going down. They have two main subjects instead of expanding it.

[00:14:42]You are saying that we should take that back also.

[00:14:44]So what you do is give all the money to the central government. That means give zero to the states.

[00:14:48]Told them to play in their tent. So what do you think? How many will they eat in these three years? They will also eat in three years. You know that these estimates are correct. Now, Mr. Afran Bukhari, there is another issue and that is that the IMF is saying that you should increase taxes or generate additional taxes of ₹860 billion, out of which half should be generated by the states and the other half by Vifaq. Vifaq has found its solution to this that new taxes of ₹215 billion should be imposed. Do you think that these new targets coming from FBR have already had a shortfall. Now we are going to keep a target of 15.2 trillion plus as per the estimate and in the same way new taxes will also be imposed, then how will these be collected and why could they not be collected earlier and now what will this change in the next year after 1st July that we will be able to collect the new taxes in a better manner, yes thank you very much, whenever there is talk of new taxes, I often say that this is a building which has no foundation, it is completely shaky and it is shaky from the beginning because till date all the new Ahadaf that were told to us in any year have not been fulfilled. Till date we have not seen that so many new taxes were imposed last year.

[00:15:57]You can take a look at the last 10 years and then you will realize the reality that very little comes out of new things.

[00:16:06]And the basic issue of Pakistan is that it is a famous example that those who are stubborn never listen to words. Those who evade taxes here are big people. Some names of Sanatkars are also taken especially in Tajarat.

[00:16:23]Politicians are very prominent among them. And especially whether it is Parliament or state, the biggest need is that whoever is currently sitting in politics and in state level, those who are in the International Assembly, Senate and then at the state level, their directory of tax payments for the last five or ten years should be made public so that people come to know how much tax these public representatives themselves pay and how much tax they have been paying. On the other hand, it is not the case that the government is not aware of the places where theft is taking place.

[00:17:04]Abid Suleri Sahib said this absolutely right.

[00:17:07]You should come with me sometime, you are a busy anchor.

[00:17:12]Maybe the time will be short. But if you can spare some time, come and I will take you to a couple of dhaba type cafes.

[00:17:20]We can sit there and make a rough estimate of the daily sales and no GST etc. is charged there.

[00:17:27]These are the things.

[00:17:29]And this is during Islamabad time. It is not that these places are government houses. There is tea and parathas there all day long, even the officers of the CBI are such that I have heard from them that we know where the raids should be conducted but that matter is just a sensitive one.

[00:17:51]We should be told what a sensitive matter this is. Unless even a single penny is caught for tax evasion, this matter will not be resolved. The second one is my brother and friend, Daniyal Aziz Sahib. He said it absolutely right. Why is the government becoming more and more arrogant? We should immediately stop the focus of our development budget, development strategy, this focus.

[00:18:17]Our country is being taken towards new projects.

[00:18:22]Infrastructure is being destroyed so rapidly and so massively, especially as a result of climatic changes.

[00:18:32]This year it is estimated that there will be 22% more rainfall than last year.

[00:18:40]This is what NDME says. This NDMA is a very good and well respected organization. This is not my number. You should go and ask him.

[00:18:48]So when so much destruction happened last year and this year it is even more so, then you should ask yourself whether due to the change in weather at this time, you should not go to the Muslim areas and especially the area of ​​Gujarat and do any work for your benefit and everything that is happening at this time is of spiritual importance for you. The first issue that should be given importance is food security.

[00:19:17]Because in terms of people's diet, especially the poor and the middle class, their intake has reduced with time and is continuously decreasing. This is a huge threat to human life and it must be addressed immediately. Other big projects include the Punjab government's plan to run a glass-roofed train from Rawalpindi to Islamabad via Mari. Have you ever thought about this and people talk about how much it would cost to keep such a train air conditioned because in the summer season the glass can even break. And in our area, at least I have not heard any mention of it anywhere else in South Asia. There's a train in Finland or Iceland in Europe that runs. It does not work in the rest of Europe where there are rich countries. So where did we get this dream from? There are other dreams of this type. Like the case of high speed train from Islamabad to Lahore.

[00:20:22]We have heard that too. Then there is talk of various motorways.

[00:20:25]Brother, I don't have the full money. The country is becoming more and more vulgar. The expenses you have incurred earlier. First perform its taziya. Decide your priorities and then move ahead.

[00:20:36]Absolutely correct sir. Now an important question is what happened to us with agriculture? There is talk of food security. So what happened to Jarat? I am asking this to Dr. Abid Suh because the target we had set for agriculture was 4.5% growth.

[00:20:48]But we were able to achieve 2.89%, so what was the reason for this? Why are farmers worried at this time and why do they have any complaints? Let's talk about this after a short break.

[00:20:58]Stay with us.

[00:21:22]After the break, Khushamdid again says, Doctor Abid Suleri sahab, why is our agriculture going astray, right now the wheat has not arrived but it is getting very expensive, are these management issues, apart from this, our target of 4.5% was not achieved, we remained at 2.89%, is there a policy issue with agriculture? Is there a weather problem?

[00:21:43]What has happened?

[00:21:46]Partially, Bukhari Sahab answered this that this climate change is having an impact. Obviously when what is climate change? How certain will climate change be like having too much water or no water at all, too high temperature or low temperature and there will be no productivity.

[00:22:07]Obviously, you cannot pause the crops or even your lifestock, your living organisms, that if the weather is not good then the crops should be stopped from growing for some time, this is a cycle and this is having an impact. Along with that, if we look at another thing, our spending on agricultural research is very poor. When you do not spend on your agriculture, on research on new varieties of seeds, on your new climate smart agriculture in which you have to use drones, on your other digital equipment, when you do not spend on that, then obviously agriculture will not be able to give you the desired results. The third important issue is the lack of water, which is also becoming an issue.

[00:23:06]Water either floods occur or you do not have it and when there is no water and because of the population of India, the uncertainty will increase further, especially what they are going to do with the Western Rivers in the next few years, then it is clear that all this together is impacting the agriculture, the rapid urbanization that is happening right now, your fertile area is either getting converted into housing societies or it is getting converted into farm houses, so that is also becoming a factor. So at this time it is very important to pay attention to food security. If we avoided becoming Sri Lanka two years ago, the basic reason for that was that in Gujarat, at least our stable food was being produced in Pakistan.

[00:23:58]Vegetables and fruits were being grown in Pakistan.

[00:24:00]Wheat was being grown in Pakistan.

[00:24:04]But going forward, we will have to capitalize on it further and it has potential if we invest in it today because one big lesson that Khaleeji fundamentalists will learn from the restrictions of State of Harams is that to secure food security, they will want to come to countries like Pakistan, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh for corporate farming, so we should take agriculture as an agricultural emergency at this time and maximum investment will have to be made on it if we have to achieve our targets related to agriculture.

[00:24:45]Correct. Absolutely correct. Another topic that is relevant, Dania Sahib, is our foreign investment. Now, foreign investment has reached its lowest level in 50 years and we have received only $317 million in government funds this year. That means, if $1.41 billion came in FDI in 10 months but $1.37 billion also went out, then if we do plus and minus, the total is only $317 million.

[00:25:10]Why has it become the lowest?

[00:25:13]This is because the international community has no confidence. You see, SIFC worked hard for about two years to reach this conclusion. Probably its head was General Sarfaraz Sahib.

[00:25:26]In his last days, he made a statement that unless domestic investment increases, foreign direct investment will not come because when domestic investment increases, it attracts foreign direct investment.

[00:25:37]Now this is a big question that why is our domestic investment not happening? Let me give you a small example. There was a time in Pakistan when the banking system was nationalized and whenever you went to any bank, there was a feasibility study next to each one.

[00:25:49]Those who did not have the money were getting it constructed so that they could get a loan for this project by recommending it from somewhere.

[00:25:56]So all that landing was going into a lot of gross fixed capital formation. Because there was a constraint when these banks were privatized in the 90s and after that and when the era of Ishrat Hussain and Shaukat Tareen Sahib came, instead of focusing on that, they went into consumer financing and we did that because the demand for dollars was very high due to the war in Afghanistan and the dollar rate was suppressed. We made our exports travel.

[00:26:23]We created an import economy which was consumer based and it continued to grow. Till today we are trying by taking loans from whatever we have.

[00:26:30]Now we have hit a brick wall because no one is ready to give loan to Pakistan. A lot of this debt that has accumulated at the central level has come to finance these things. These beautiful cars that you are seeing, these refrigerators, ACs, TVs, these mobile phones, all these things, I am giving you some spices. There are countless things out there. So, in that, the financial intermediation function of Pakistan, its entire focus was on the firehouse, consumerism, credit cards and these by-trips and these advertisements kept appearing in the newspapers. It went in that direction and not in this gross fixed capital formation. So the level of gross fixed capital formation of Pakistan has come down from 20-22% to about 8-9%. If we add the government's contribution in between then it goes to 13%. For example, if you look at the neighboring country, Vietnam is at 25 to 30%. Gross fixed capital formation is their investment, hence you need to revamp your financial intermediation function.

[00:27:26]We saw a small glimpse which actually I think was completely misplaced.

[00:27:30]That was this ADR advance to deposit ratio which was enforced by the government about two years ago. You can give him loan up to 50%, not the rich because they do not want to take risk, they are getting risk free income, so when he said this, from September to December 2024, there was an increase in private sector credit by ₹ 2 trillion in new lending and on December 31, by bargaining with them and taking some more tax, that complaint was removed from the Income Tax Act and since then he did not come again. So in the month of January, one trillion public sector private sector loans and credit collapsed and till now it is going on as usual. So in this, when you are the owner of the banks, you are the owner of the consumer economy. That means the person who owns the bank also owns the car company. The owner of the bank also owns the FS company. The owner of the bank also has higher or these other consumer durables.

[00:28:28]Lots of credit cards. So in that, they are running their work by giving loans to themselves. Pakistan is travelling in it. So, until the State Bank of Pakistan is able to implement a strong policy in which some balance is maintained and the neighboring countries give some plan that in the coming few years you will reach close to them, then your growth will also increase and your economy will also run. But I want to say one more thing. It is not just that if you improve your financial intermediation a little, you can get 2-3% growth in it. In the latest report of IMF, which came out the day before yesterday, it is written that Pakistan can increase its growth by 3 to 3% just by carrying out governance reforms. That which he gave as a governance diagnostic. If you remember, there was a huge uproar. In that, Pakistan has prepared a reply of 240 pages. There are 15 main points in it. But its implementation has been given to the Planning Commission. So that LB DN sir is sitting there. There look busy do nothing.

[00:29:25]He is called Rastu Tan Tanjia in his community. He didn't do anything.

[00:29:28]You see for yourself. So you can achieve 3% of that in the short term. So if Pakistan contributes 2-3% of financial intermediation and 2-3% of governance and moves ahead with it, then it can become the highest growing economy. It is in your hands. It is in your control but you will not be able to do this. And I want to say one more thing regarding inflation. Yes, see, the important thing is that ever since the return of democracy in 2008, these three parties, People's Party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nun) and PTI, have got almost two terms each. If you count Khaiberun Khan, then they have got three terms each. The surprising thing in this period is that if you look at all the private surveys which are the most important items for the public, number one in them is inflation, it is poison for them, this is the number one issue of the people of Pakistan and number two is unemployment. So, in both these areas, during the rule of these three parties, the history of Pakistan has reached new heights.

[00:30:21]So why is this? Now you see, listen to me for a minute.

[00:30:23]In April, before the beginning of this Mali year, that is, almost 12 months ago, in April, we are currently sitting in May. So at that time, Ashariya had 3% inflation. Ash'ariyya 3s Ash'ariyya less than 1%.

[00:30:37]So they can do this. So, when he presented the budget in June, he said that our target is 7.5%. That means, from 3% to 7%, how many thousands of percent increase is there. There was no vermillion at that time. There was no flood.

[00:30:50]Someone in the past listen to me for 1 minute in the last quarter, 10% for one minute.

[00:30:55]For a minute now, it has gone into double digits. Ok? I am telling you that this is under their control.

[00:31:00]Inflation does not happen, it is done. But there is a conflict of interests among these groups.

[00:31:04]They will never bring this up. That as soon as you saw the Petroleum Development Levy of 85, that tax was imposed on two wheelers and three wheelers, then this is cruelty, this is not equality and this is why I tell you that I know all of them very well, I have worked with all of them, it has been 30-32 years for me now, they have performed for Pakistan, it is not in their capacity, they cannot do it, so if the Pakistani people have to survive then we will have to look towards something new, hmm, that is right, now you talked about the Planning Commission, then Faran Bukhari Sahib, today 2 years ago some people came before us in the name of Udaan Pakistan and it was said in it that in the next 5 years we have to take the GDP to 6%.

[00:31:44]We have to take exports to $60 billion. IT exports have to be taken to $10 million.

[00:31:50]We have to provide employment to 10 lakh people. The fee income should be $2400. Similarly, the threshold of poverty has to be kept at 12%, which is currently at 45%.

[00:32:02]He was supposed to take the capital to $10 billion annually and we have just shared its details with you.

[00:32:06]What projection do you think we have got within 2 years that in the next 3 years we will be able to achieve our target like Pakistan because we seem to be far away from our import and export of 60 billion dollars.

[00:32:18]Similarly, unemployment in employment is also at 7.1%.

[00:32:21]So do you think the etiquette of Udaan Pakistan will have to be changed?

[00:32:26]Yes, thank you. In my opinion, Udaan Pakistan is probably ready to fly somewhere, but that take-off has not happened and its reasons are before us. They are not solely related to weather and climate change. Because it is often said that it is very difficult for Pakistan.

[00:32:45]That is why the Edaf are not being completed.

[00:32:48]This is not just about climate change. The biggest issue here is that the governments do not seem serious about the reforms in Pakistan for a long time.

[00:33:02]Now my brother friend Daniyal Aziz sahab just said that this is not a clash of interests, rather there is belief in interests, whichever party has come, no matter what they have said, but in the end the result has been the same for the public and what I had said earlier in the previous segment that people who are stubborn do not listen to words, we have seen the blueprint of reforms on papers countless times but no further action is taken on it because the big people have become so old that no government is ready to touch them or is not ready to touch them beyond a certain limit or even if some action is taken against a few people, then that too is just for show. What lies beyond that is not yet visible. At this time there is a need to revive Pakistan, that is, to start a new journey and we need to work on it.

[00:34:09]These talks and this Tajdi and sir, planning, this has happened so many times.

[00:34:16]I think if you and I sit together and search on Google for half an hour and visit a couple of places, then maybe we can make some small sketch. Yes, making a blueprint is an easy task. Who will do the work on the blueprint? And we have already discussed this tax issue.

[00:34:35]He has a huge connection with Arab Itedar. How many times have we heard this?

[00:34:41]A rather senior leader of the party had said that there are around 60 such people in the national assembly. A few years ago, it was discussed that there are around 60 people whose permanent residence status or status is of foreign origin.

[00:34:56]He did give me the number.

[00:34:59]Till date it is not known who are the dual nationals in such a Parliament? They should be asked that brother, if you have assets outside, if you have income from outside, what is the account of that. This never happened before. At least it did not come to my notice. So this type of violence will not end in Pakistan.

[00:35:17]This is a very bad arrangement. Unless you end it and take the country towards revival. So if you think that Pakistan's train is derailed at this time. It needs to be put back on track and driven forward at high speed.

[00:35:36]I don't see that sequence happening. This is a very difficult situation.

[00:35:40]Right, absolutely fine. Now there are two more issues. In which Pakistan is badly trapped.

[00:35:45]One is Pakistan's power sector and the other is foreign debt. It seems that Pakistan is trapped in this circle in such a way that getting out of it seems impossible as no one has any plan or solution. Is there any way by which Pakistan can plan these two sectors and these two matters?

[00:36:04]Taking a short break, I will put these questions to Dr. Abid and then to the other guests as well.

[00:36:10]Come back after the break.

[00:36:34]Cheers to you again after the break.

[00:36:36]Dr. Abid Surhari Sahib, please tell me that in this power sector of Pakistan, we are stuck in circular debt.

[00:36:42]When our circular debt of gas and electricity combined went up to Rs 52-5300 billion, we took a loan of Rs 1200 billion from banks and we said, look, the circular debt has reduced.

[00:36:51]Now the surcharge on the loan taken from those banks, i.e. debt surcharge, has been added to the bills. But then the debt, that turbulent debt, kept increasing and again reached 5200 billion. That means that debt of Rs 1200 billion has increased and its original circular debt remains the same even after some time. So how will we get out of this cycle and for this, and then these capacity payments, these deals with IPPs, we are neither able to make a policy for solar nor any other policy. Do you think there is a way for the government in this?

[00:37:27]Without going into this debate, Asad, who installed the IPPs and why? If we look at the current situation, the way electricity tariff and gas tariff will increase, there will be further increase in it in the next budget. Because in our MFP we have committed that we will pass on the energy cost.

[00:37:53]Yakam will be doing the rebasing of gas on July first.

[00:37:56]After that, Yakam will be revising his terrifs again in January. So if I look at it, I feel that all the people who can afford it will go solar and will also install those batteries with them. And this policy of deregulating solar so that capacity payment charges can be reduced will backfire. The condition of our grid connection will probably remain the same as that of our fixed telephone lines because it will become so expensive that the people in the unit will not be able to fold it.

[00:38:36]So this trend will move towards solar at a faster pace due to which the power capacity payment charges will increase further. One possible solution to this could have been that when negotiations were going on with the IMF at the beginning of the war, perhaps we should have used the war as an excuse to talk to the IMF that if a country like Qatar can declare force majeure on gas supply, then Pakistan would have got a moratorium on passing on the capacity payment charges for some time so that the people could remain connected to the grid, but we could not do that. On the other hand, when we look at grid connectivity, grid reforms, that too has not been given the same attention. So, combining these two things, it seems that in the times to come, the consumers in the near future will gradually move towards self-reliance. It is a matter of great concern that after this Khaleeji war, the energy system of the entire world is going to be reset. The whole world is trying to reduce reliance on imported fuel. There is nuclear power here, they will move towards nuclear energy. There is coal here, they will use the coal. Pakistan currently has renewable energy and we have to give priority to renewable energy.

[00:40:15]Due to capacity payment charges, we are ignoring our renewable sources. Or if our grid is not modernized, then because of that we are ignoring our future technology. And both these things are not very good, they are not auspicious. We also have to modernize our grid and we have to maximize our renewable energy so that Sarafin and the investment that you talked about earlier, a big factor in not getting investment is also your energy cost. As the cost of doing business increases and energy becomes expensive, your own investors will also move away from there. So we need to reset this and in this budget it will have to be seen whether you get any relaxation for solar meters or solar panels or not and if you do not get this then these capacity payment charges will increase because the consumer will definitely go towards solar.

[00:41:21]Absolutely correct. Dana saheb, now the matter is that obviously the industry is directly related to energy and do you think there is something coming in the budget for the industry because we have not been able to meet our export targets and our exports have been very low, approximately 7-8%, so do you think there will be relief for the industry so that exports can meet the next target and get relief, on the contrary, all these special economic zones and special industrial zones have been formed, on this, under the agreement with the IMF, Pakistan is taking all of them towards taking precautions this year.

[00:41:59]So whatever scope they had in customs tariff or elsewhere, all of it is being taken away.

[00:42:07]In its place, a complete process of tariff rationalization is coming, about which you will hear cries from the auto sector because the old auto policy is ending in 2026.

[00:42:16]So, the regulatory duty and additional customs duty will be imposed on vehicles for the first time and vehicles will have to be made cheaper in Pakistan. So, along with this, I want to ask you what is the issue in the power sector that you talked about? Look, we have renegotiated IPP contracts many times.

[00:42:32]Imran Khan sahib also did it twice.

[00:42:34]He also tried it twice and he also tried being strict with them. I am saying this in hushed tones. You know what I'm saying.

[00:42:41]So the thing is that there was no improvement in it. When will the real improvement come? The real improvement will come when you start delivering the power generation capacity that you have.

[00:42:51]Why is it not being delivered? Because most of your discos are facing forced load shedding. Force load shedding is happening because you are not able to collect the bills. So the government has shown some increased efficiency in collecting bills.

[00:43:02]This in the last year but that too is volatile. It goes up and down. One year it increases, one year it decreases. But this does not mean that the new power has reduced load shedding for them or they have started giving it or they have achieved so much mastery.

[00:43:14]So until you provide power, approximately 5 to 6000 MW will remain stuck in this item only.

[00:43:20]If you start paying that, then this spare capacity for which you and I are paying the price, starts getting distributed, then this bill can come down by ₹14 per unit as per my calculations.

[00:43:31]Good sir.

[00:43:32]So that is a governance issue. That is not a contracting issue. So, under the Vaptah Act, you do all these operations in collaboration with the local authorities i.e. the local government. He is not ready to do this bureaucratically.

[00:43:45]Not ready to give incentives. So the department gets the theft done with the help of the police.

[00:43:49]That's what we deal with all day. There is no way you can install a transformer without the department's permission. Put the meter there. Transformers are installed. In different localities. The entire department is getting this done together. Why?

[00:44:02]Because one cannot survive on Rs 2000, one cannot survive on Rs 300. So the more you reduce it, the more load comes on the next feeder. Because they have to take their monthly payment from there only. It's a simple matter. So the problem in that is that by the time you look at their incentives, you know about the private sector. It has been 18 years since Karachi Electric was privatized. The first thing they did was revise the salaries. Currently, the CEO of Karachi Electric earns ₹6 crore per month. The changes that have happened now are with Alvi Sahab.

[00:44:28]So what do you think? Whereas where I live, there is one of the biggest electric supply corporations of Pakistan, in which he is taking ₹ lakh, that is the salary of an 18th grade job, how is he going to survive, when he is taking such big decisions, doing everything, then you have given five-six salaries in FBR, you have given salaries by adopting incentive approach in FBR, but where strategic means, both of these can sink Pakistan, FBR alone can sink it and the power sector can also sink, so you know that when it is going to be privatized, then it is present in the Privatization Act that you should take those steps in preparation so that the process is smooth, so you know what Karachi Electric has done, so you start taking those steps, who is stopping you, privatization is not going to happen with them, get it written from me, of course, they have given a promise to IMF in December 2026 that we will privatize these three power companies, none of this will happen the day they are privatized. The reason behind all these IPPs which have cracked down is that they do not get their heat audit done because from day one they have been showing their efficiencies in connivance with the departments so that they get more money and hence they use less fuel and earn more, there is all this margin in it, so what do you think, the day the heat audit is done, the private sector electricity company will accept this, it will not accept their rates at all, it will say that we will get our rates audited, on that day all these curtains will be lifted and then they will run away like cockroaches hiding, the real thing is that the issue is not of contract negotiation of IPPs, the issue is of heat audit which has been kept as a padding from day one, we are right, now Farhan Bukhari sahib, these issues are very serious. But along with this, another issue is the issue of foreign debts on Pakistan. Just two years ago, Daniyal Sahib was also telling that we took another loan of Rs 14 trillion.

[00:46:09]Now in one year our FBR could not collect Rs 14 trillion.

[00:46:13]But we have taken a loan of Rs 14 trillion in 2 years. A loan of Rs 7 trillion has been taken in just one year. Now loans have to be taken even to repay the debts.

[00:46:22]They also have to take loans to pay the interest on their loans.

[00:46:26]So can the government reduce its debt burden through NFC, that is, take shares from the states, reduce the debt and meet its expenses from there or is there any other solution and then what will be the method of repaying the debt?

[00:46:40]Yes, let me first clarify that the burden of payments at this time is mostly on the governments and the internal loans taken by the countries on the governments.

[00:46:56]You know the interest rates, you know that they are where they are in Pakistan.

[00:47:00]Yes, and external debts are very high in their place.

[00:47:04]They need to be reduced. But the first and the biggest burden is that of internal debts. Now for many years there has been discussion in different circles about what is the solution to this and different types of saws have also been presented. But unless two-three basic things are resolved and problems are solved, you cannot move forward. First of all, there is a state of chaos in the country.

[00:47:33]Now there are some political issues regarding this which need to be resolved. And here I am not speaking in favor or against any one party. There is a harmonious atmosphere.

[00:47:48]And unless you solve the Muslim problems in that environment, your vehicle cannot move forward. Number one, number two is that at this time in the country, Daniyal Aziz Sahib also said something, my friend Abid Sulhari also said something here that at this time there is a need to revive the efforts of the country and at this time the situation is that because there is a situation of jamud, that is why your efforts are not going on, it is in a way present at a place of stagnation or in a state of semi-stagnation. This is what you need to run the machine. And the character of Kali in it should be from the country of India.

[00:48:33]If you go there and start such an effort that the crop output starts improving and after that you work on other sectors as well, then Pakistan can improve in a short time but for that you need reforms. Correct.

[00:48:53]And number three is that there is a long-standing class in Pakistan and they are mostly involved in politics.

[00:49:04]But this is there in many shows. There is a privileged class.

[00:49:08]Unless they are treated like the rest of the country, like the people of the rest of the country.

[00:49:14]This vehicle of the country will not move forward. Ok. Thank you very much Farhan Bukhari sir. Thank you very much Dr. Abid Sulhari Sahib. Thank you very much Dana Saheb, thank you for participating in the program, the budget is about to come. Let us see what is included in it for the public and how much the government pays attention to the suggestions that you have just heard from Mahreen because other experts are also saying these things. The government is being given suggestions. The government also has meetings with business personalities.

[00:49:37]But whether they will be translated into the budget document that will be presented to us remains to be seen. Please allow me.

[00:49:44]Allah Hafiz.