The Bitcoin Short Is PRINTING! Here's Where It Will Bounce

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Right, everyone. Welcome back. So, the BTC short I've been discussing for the past month is finally starting to pan out. Uh, starting to see the fruits from our labor. So, we're sort of looking at potentially a daily market structure shift here. We close below this red line on tomorrow's close. Uh, so I'm I'm liking what I'm seeing. I'm going to give you guys my first trouble area, aka where I might look to take a chunk of the position. Uh, average entry from around 80.5K, I think it was just building in this zone up here. Um, and basically, yeah, I'm just going to give you where I'm looking for that to pan out, where I think that will be invalidated. So, a level I think we will TP early and flip long uh if this if this thesis isn't validated, but mostly where I'm looking to TP first. Um, and it's very simple. You can pretty much see it on the chart here. I'm going to explain what that is in a bit. Also going to cover why my system works so well in these conditions, especially for trading altcoins. And we're going to use NER as an example. So, if you're interested in near the the recent price action we've had, I'm going to go over a very simple framework that anyone can use using my money noodle indicator, using some momentum oscillators, and just basically using a rallybased rally mindset. And I'll explain what that is in a bit. So, if you want to learn that, make sure you stick around. Please like and subscribe. And also want to give a shout out to the stream sponsor today, which is WEX. As always, uh same deposit 500 USCT, you get 100 USDT using the exchange. Do that. fill out the form link in my description below and I will assign you the money noodle indicator your trading view account without further ado let's get into it all right so what are we seeing here very simple the the thesis all along was we're coming into the weekly noodle right the weekly trend had historically cap price uh sorry had historically supported price the whole run up over a th00and days I sound like a broken record going on about this so I'm not going to go on about it anymore it's quite boring to me now also um you know first time we lost a noodle after 1,000 days very sharp rejection down You call this a reversion bounce on the weekly, whatever you want to call it. Um I said I didn't like this for a bottom because of all these stack lows down here. Also I think bottoms take longer to form. Do I think we come back down and run 60k? Probably not.

[00:01:56]Probably not. But I do think there is possibility to come back into the value area around 72. Um you know also what's given me the the sort of credence on that was it was lining up with a stochastic reset. So on the weekly time frame this is a high time frame. So we can expect a meaningful shift when we get the uh confluence of these two indicators working together. All right.

[00:02:14]All right. So now on the daily, we got a rejection at the weekly. Then we go down time frames. What did we get? We got a clear support on the runup into the weekly. Let's get up the highlighter here. Clear support of the daily. The whole runup. Now we're getting the meaningful shift. We lost it. We're getting rejection, rejection, rejection.

[00:02:32]This to me signals that potentially we start going into a new regime to the downside. And all this will look like on a higher time frame is just a giant range. You can go to the one minute time frame, find a range that looks exactly like this. Price's fractal, yada yada.

[00:02:45]We've all heard these words. Uh, this is just going to potentially turn into a bigger range where we just bracket between two points. I'm not saying like that was the top. We're now going down to $0. I'm saying, you know, that was the end of the daily trend and now we have shifted into a daily downtrend.

[00:03:03]Now, we have not technically shifted yet. Um, I was actually doing a Miles High Club stream this morning. So what I was saying is you know in terms of the daily the market structure has shifted to the downside uh if you draw it one way and it hasn't if you draw it another I was effectively saying you know this was the last swing low before a push up that made new highs. So I was effectively calling this level here at 78170 let's just say 78k the sort of sort of you know market structure shift level and you can see actually if we look at it the reaction we got we lost it. So we had that low wicked into it here, wicked into it here, just front run it here. This is obviously a clear resistance level. So it is a meaningful level. But if you want to take it from the key swing low, which is this guy here in the red line, uh you can see, you know, very strong reaction off the other day, we wick below it, we push back up, rejecting off the daily noodle, and now we are sort of looking for a close below this level. So if we get a close tomorrow at the daily open, that's roughly, what are we looking at? It's roughly 13 hours from now. Uh we are looking for oh sorry I'm in a different time zone it's not 13 hours it's like 11 hours uh or 10 hours. So what we're looking for is a close below that low here on the red. Uh so let's just say 75k give or take close below that we have a definite confirmation of a shift in daily structure. Now do I think it's a good place to short here? I do not. I do not because you know you look at your sort of invalidation here where you're going to put your stop for a swing above this wick. Where's my TP level? We're going to go over that now. You know, this gives you like a 06R trade. This is not worth it. Find something on the lower time frame, sure. But in terms of a swing perspective, uh the entry was up here on this deviation above the weekly SR level. What we're looking at here, we have this key value area. So, this was the range we drew out. I stopped it where the PC is. You can see it's just drawn up to this point because this is where we broke away from value. Um, and what I'm looking for potentially is to come down where I wanted a long originally on this wick here. Well, actually, not a wick. these poor lows here. You see there's no no bottoms on this, no wicks. I was looking for this to come down and retest this daily demand block into the uh value area high into the daily noodle. And that was going to be my long for a swing up uh and then shorting the top instead. We didn't get that. Had to adapt and caught something later. Um I think it was that roughly eight videos ago if you want to go back and check. Um but basically now I'm looking for this to be the first trouble area. And what that means is where I think, you know, I think potentially we can come back down to like 65K at the value area low. That's where I'd like to TP this short. Um, where we get it, I don't know. But I think the first trouble area is a potential bounce at the daily demand and also at the uh valley area high. So just keep that on your radar. Now, if we do start to accept back in here and we don't have any sort of bounce, then I'm looking for that rotation back down to the value area low. So this is where we originally took the long position on spot. I can't remember how many videos ago uh we called on this channel. We were looking for a move up to I think it was 80K. Uh this is where I started TPing that and decided to flip short. Um so yeah, we start accepting back inside.

[00:06:06]We look for that full rotation.

[00:06:07]Otherwise, we may get a bounce here. May get a push back up into this. Maybe the daily trend caps it. Not sure yet. We play it by ear when it comes to it. But that's what I'm seeing on BTC for now. I want to quickly look at uh the S&P 500.

[00:06:21]So this has been in a constant uptrend.

[00:06:24]New alltime high every day. That's what it does. does a sharp dip, does a V reverse out. Uh, you know what I'm looking for here? What's interesting is BTC trailed this move up. So, BTC traded behind uh S&P, behind indices, I should say. Uh, and then it stopped. So, we're seeing this clear uptrend on uh indices, right? And we look at something like BTC, the meta has shifted. It's no longer in a clear uptrend. It's now in a clear downtrend to me anyway, or the beginnings of a clear downtrend. So, if you think about BTC trailing that move up and getting the sort of spillover effect into risk assets and we see a lot of nice moves on alts, what do you think is going to happen when this finally decides to cool off a bit? Uh, do you think BTC is going to have a counter trend rally? I think this is going to either chop or it's going to sell off again. And when that happens, I think risk assets are going to sell off a lot harder. So, just kind of my two cents right now. This is also why I wanted to lean more into the short thesis. Once BTC starts to lose that momentum trailing the tread markets, what do you think is going to happen when they call off? Ask yourself that question. So, just something to be mindful of. I do think instead of puking again, it just probably goes into like a ranging consolidation phase. We'll have to see how the market reacts, but I don't think uh you know, I think any sort of selloff is going to reflect into crypto. So, just keep that in mind. Now, USDT dominance as well. You know, clear uptrend uh for months and months on the daily noodle. You can see that uptrend stopped when we started to chop through the noodle and then the regime flipped to being capped by the noodle. So, we're actually in a downtrend there. Now, what's interesting to me is we are pushing up to this key support resistance level and also have flipped back above the daily noodle. Now, if we start to push above on this, our shorts in the money. Our shorts like heavily in the money. It's going down to where I discussed into the value area. Uh but if we do start to reject here, we're sort of at a squeeze point right now. We start to reject here back below the noodle, we may see that pop in the market. Remember this is just a synthetic index um and I just use a barometer for risk. If this is going up that means money is flowing into stable coins. This going down it means money is flowing out of stables into risk assets.

[00:08:27]So just use it like that. Um it's very simple to use. Just use it directionally like if price is trending up you can expect sorry if the chart is trending up you can expect risk assets to be trending down and vice versa. All right lastly on near I wanted to cover something. Obviously N had that uh terrific move up. Terrific move up. Now, what we want to do with a chart like this is we want to see what time frame is being the most respected. Now, I love trading the 4 hour. It's by far my favorite time frame. Uh, but was it a good good bet here? No, it wasn't because we didn't get any retest on it.

[00:08:58]We didn't respect it down here. This all just chopped through it. We got one retest here off to the races. No retests after that. Now, I got a question from Miles High this morning from a member saying, "Is this a good place to long?"

[00:09:09]My answer was you can't base it on the 4hour time frame. He was asking about the 4-hour time frame. I suppose you can't bas on the 4hour time frame as we have no historical data to support it being a good time frame. What was a good time frame? The hourly. The hourly was uh you know the money printer here. We can see up the chop down here every retest was supported on the runup. This also lined up with stochastic RSI resets. So this is how you can trade these things. You choose a high time frame point of interest. Um this was a daily supply block up here. Also psychological round number $3. Now, we had a very nice push up into that. Um, and once we pushed into it, we can see the sharp rejection off. Now, if you're going to long the 1 hour noodle after that, you need to be aware of what's happening on the higher time frame. And we can see after that, the 1 hour noodle, you know, we wicked into it here. The 1 hour noodles provided absolutely no bounce after we took that high time frame liquidity point above.

[00:10:02]So, this is where you kind of say, all right, where's price reaching? It keeps bouncing off the 1 hour noodle in line with stocastic RSI resets. Where's it reaching for? We zoom out something like the daily. we can see where it's reaching for. Now it's done this, it no longer becomes an attractive opportunity to keep longing the H1 noodle, especially when there's no bounce there because we know it's taking that higher time frame liquidity. And as we're seeing now, rejection, rejection, rejection. So now it's kind of being capped by price and treating the noodle as resistance. And as you know, I think it's too early to do yet, but if this continues to trend down, this is where we can be taking shorts in line with stocastic RSI resets. Now, the whole thing I was saying as well is what makes these good long opportunities is when you're getting a retest of the money noodle, which is a retest, a reset of trend. Um, you're getting a reset of momentum at the same time by a stocastic RSI. This is all the system I teach on here. Each time we get these moves down, you can see up here not really being reflected. Yes, being supported by trend, we're not getting that reset momentum. Once we get that reset momentum, what happens right here? It's off to the races again. We make a new high down here again. Bit of a deviation on the noodle, but mostly being supported by it. Stochastic RSI reset.

[00:11:09]We push up. Same thing again. We come down here, enters a sort of choppy period, but that low remains untapped.

[00:11:15]Then we push up above. Uh once again down here, we come into it. We get the stochastic RSI reset. Is it being supported by trend this time? No. It closes under it um and accepts under it.

[00:11:25]Like this little period here is where it's like, okay, every time it's failing to get back above. So this is how you can tell when the regime has shifted on these things. So, when you get a heavily trending coin, yes, you're going to miss the first retest or two because you don't know it's in a trend until it's in a trend. I know it sounds stupid, but you know what I mean. Uh, but once you sort of establish that it is in an uptrend. So, we can see here broken market structure. That's a terrible drawing. I'll just do it with the highlighter. Uh, this high right here, you can see we broke market structure, pushed above, supported by trend. And then when we finally get that stocastic RSI reset, like right here, this is where you can take your entry and put your stop under whatever key swing low happens in that area. low time frame, high time frame, doesn't matter. This works on every time frame. Obviously, more meaningful the higher the time frame. But if you get a heavily trending coin on something like NEO, you're not waiting for a daily noodle retest.

[00:12:10]You're waiting something like the M15 or the H1, something low. So, I just wanted to share that with you guys. Very simple. Uh I will cover this framework more as we go on. But when you get those coins that pop off very heavily, a good way to find those coins is to use uh the MHC spaghetti indicator. You can get that in the group. If you want to join the Miles High Club, you use Paradise 20 at checkout, 20% off. The links in the description below. Um, you also get access to the updated Money Noodle V2, uh, the Money Noodle table, also the Money Noodle key levels, just like a suite of indicators that kind of work in confluence with each other for just trading trends predominantly, not ranges. Uh, but you know, a good way to identify what those coins are that are moving is to use something like this, like the spaghetti index. So you can see on the day like L1's outperforming that was led by SE and ICP I believe it was uh today and they gave the best opportunities we can actually see that here. So 10% on the day for ICP uh 5% on the day for SE was actually 9% before it's had a bit of a selloff obviously because BTC swept those highs and selling off but you know this is how I find the coins I want to trade and then I go and use the money noodle system to get into those coins just using what I taught you then. Uh that's the alpha for the day. That's the framework. We've got a read on BTC. What we're looking for, we know we're looking for USDT dominance. Thank you for joining. I'll catch you guys next time. Cheers.