The College Football Playoff system creates perverse incentives that disincentivize teams from playing challenging games, as demonstrated by Texas Tech's offer to play Texas week one despite Texas having a significantly stronger schedule (9th vs. 46th in strength of schedule) and already having a demanding schedule including Ohio State and nine SEC games; this system rewards teams with weaker schedules who can still make the playoff while punishing teams that schedule tough opponents, which is why an expanded playoff system that increases the value of every game would better incentivize meaningful matchups.
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Texas Tech Challenges Texas to PLAY NOW… But There’s a CatchAdded:
Texas Tech, flexes on Texas? Welcome into overtime with Matt Mascona. I am your host, Matt Mascona. What a wild story this is turning out to be. So, Steve Sarkisian, the Texas head football coach, was at a booster event and took a not so subtle shot at Texas Tech. So, Sark is at a Houston booster event and does not name Tech by name, but he says, quote, "There's a team in our state in another conference with a schedule that I would argue, if I played our twos and threes, we could go undefeated and they'll probably make the college football playoff this year." So, obviously, Sark is talking about Texas Tech, which made the college football playoff in 2025 despite playing a really weak schedule.
Like, this is an objective fact, okay?
Texas Tech's strength of schedule in 2025, when they made the college football playoff, was 46th in the country. The only schools that made the college football playoff that had a worse strength of schedule were Tulane at 65 and James Madison at 82. The two G5s that may or G6s that made the playoff were the only schools that had a weaker strength of schedule than Texas Tech. That is an objective fact. Tech played three ranked opponents. They played Utah and then BYU twice. One of those was in the conference championship game and Utah ended up as the worst team or one of the worst teams in the Big 12 a season ago.
They were ranked early in the season when the two played. They did not finish the season ranked.
Then, Texas Tech went to the Orange Bowl, played Oregon, and got shut out 23 to nothing. So, Sark's feelings there are not unfounded. They're not misguided. You may not like that he said it, and I think it's also notable that he didn't say it in a public forum, meaning in a with media present. He said it at a booster event. And that's actually pretty common. Remember a few years ago, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, excuse me, Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher had their tête-à-tête whenever Nick was talking about Jimbo buying the greatest recruiting class ever, then Jimbo clapped back. And that was when, remember, NIL was still relatively new and you weren't actually supposed to be buying players, but well, that what it evolved into. But in any event, sometimes those things do happen at booster events.
Um it would have been dramatically different if Sark had said that in a press conference type scenario, but the the comments went public. So, now here's how this thing has evolved. So, Sark makes those comments. Obviously, the folks over at Texas Tech get wind of them, and not only has Texas Tech now offered to play Texas week one of this season, they're doubling down. So, the official Big 12 Conference Twitter, okay, this is not just some happenstance or in passing type thing. The Big 12 Conference's official Twitter account posted on Thursday that um Joey McGuire, the head coach at Texas Tech, commenting on Steve Sarkisian says that McGuire has talked to Texas State and Abilene Christian, and those are the week one opponents for Texas Tech and Texas, and says they would love to buy out those games to play Texas this season week one. If not in Lubbock, then they play at AT&T Stadium. McGuire said, quote, we would love to play Texas. So, again, um just to clarify, Texas Tech and Texas both have week one opponents, Texas State and Abilene Christian. Tech is saying, "We'll buy out those week one games and play Texas.
If they won't come to Lubbock, we'll play them in Jerry World at AT&T Stadium."
Cody Campbell, who is the um the the the Texas Tech booster, uh said he's up the ante saying that that Texas Tech will pay both buyouts.
We'll we'll pay that they will Texas won't have to buy out their week one game. Texas Tech will pay both buyouts to play the game. Um, now, I I think this offer is a crazy bluff. Most people, and I'm not saying Texas Tech wouldn't play Texas, but they're making this offer, quote unquote, knowing there's no chance it's going to happen. And it's not a thing where Texas would be afraid to play Texas Tech. I I think Texas would probably be heavily favored in that game against Texas Tech if they did in fact play.
But a year ago, remember I told you Texas Tech's strength of schedule was 46th. I'm going to get to a point here because I would I would love to see this game and hope one day maybe this is the impetus for the change that I've been barking about for a long time.
But I told you Texas Tech's strength of schedule last year was 46th.
Well, Texas's strength of schedule was ninth.
I told you that Texas Tech played three ranked opponents. One of them, Utah, ended up not not ranked, and the other two were against BYU, one in the conference championship game.
Texas played five top 10 opponents last year in the regular season. Five of their 12 games were against top 10 opponents. When you're talking about strength of schedule, it's not even comparable. And when you go into this coming season, in addition to now adding a ninth SEC game, Texas already has their game week two against Ohio State. So, now what you're saying and Texas Tech knows this, it's why it's a crazy bluff, because they know Texas isn't going to agree to it.
Because Texas is now going to play a nine-game SEC schedule, and Ohio State, meaning 10 of their 12 games are against power four opponents.
And then you want to add Texas Tech also to the schedule? It just doesn't make a lick of sense logically for Texas to play that game. And it's not that Texas is scared of play and I'm not sitting here like this great Texas defender, it's that it doesn't it legitimately doesn't make sense to play that game.
And this for me is the problem that we have in college athletics and particular college football.
Because we're talking about a world where you have disincentivized teams from playing games like this. Let me give you the clearest example. I just told you about Texas Tech. Texas Tech made the playoff a year ago with a strength of schedule of 46. Texas was 9 and 3 with the ninth strength of schedule, didn't make the college football playoff because the self-important nerds in the hotel ballroom in suburban Dallas that sit there with this autonomy to do whatever they want to create the playoff, debating things like defensive efficiency metric and and game control, really bear it down to the lowest common denominator, which is what your record Yeah, two years ago Indiana made the playoff at 11 and 1 playing one ranked opponent. They played one ranked opponent. Ohio State got their head kicked in, but they made the playoff because they were 11 and 1. We have a system that disincentivizes playing those tough games. If Texas a year ago hadn't played Ohio State, but instead played Ohio U, they would have been 10 and 2 and would have made the college football playoff. But, they decided to challenge themselves to give college football and college football fans a game that they wanted to see going up to Columbus and playing Ohio State there in week one, lost the game, they end up nine and three, and they're out of the playoff.
Where's the incentive to play that game?
Texas Tech, meanwhile, knows it can play Texas week one, lose that game, win win out because they play a weak schedule, and still make the college football playoff. So, there's no incentive for Texas to play the game. There is incentive for Tech to play the game, and Tech knows that that even in offering Texas because of their schedule isn't going to do it. Now, if Texas did not have Ohio State week two, and had and played like the Big Ten does, where you have nine league games, but no power four mandate, and so you end up with with ridiculous non-conference schedules. I mean, this is this is up and down the list if you want to look at it. For example, um like let's let's look at Indiana.
Right, Indiana, which was great a great football team last year, won the national championship, was the best team in the country. And I very much look, I was on Indiana early. When they went to Eugene and beat Oregon, I was like, oh, this is different. But, their non-conference was Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State.
Before Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State. Who wants to see that the first three weeks of the season? Go back to to before this past season. Indiana canceled a future home and home with Virginia. Virginia.
Indiana canceled a future home and home with Virginia to instead schedule Kennesaw State and Austin Peay.
College football fans don't win in that scenario.
Just like college football fans don't win in this scenario, because I think we all agree we would love to see Texas and Texas Tech play week one at Jerry World, instead of those two schools playing Texas State and Abilene Christian, right? But we have a system in college football now that does not reward that behavior, and that's the problem. So, my hope is we eventually get to a world in college football where every where we have consolidation, where the power four, or whatever it's going to be called, all play 12 games against each other.
That's the benefit of an expanded college football playoff, and the the counterargument that you're going to water down the regular season is completely bogus. It's going to make the regular season more important, and when you get to November, you're going to be playing more important games in November because more teams are going to be competing for something instead of guys opting out cuz nobody wants to play in the freaking Cheez-It or Pop-Tarts Bowl.
You'll have a chance to make a playoff or a chance to secure a home game or a chance to secure a bye. So, you're going to have more teams playing for things, and the schedule metrics will matter, so teams like Texas and Texas Tech would be incentivized to play this game instead of Abilene Christian and Texas State, which is the system we have right now.
So, do I Would I love to see Texas Tech and Texas play week one in Jerry World?
Yeah, that would be amazing theater. I would love to see that game. We would all love to see that game instead of two garbage body bag games. That's just a a collected check and tune-up for for week two.
But it's also not realistic in this scenario, so this is a crazy bluff by Texas Tech so they can look like [clears throat] they're dunking on Texas cuz there's no way Texas is going to accept this and play this game. They're going to look like they're dunking on Texas and and clapping back at Sark.
The biggest flex that Texas could have would actually be to say, "Okay, let's do it." Go beat the crap out of Texas Tech, which they would do, um and and maybe maybe get rewarded for it, but then they got to play Ohio State week two. So, it's hard to imagine that happening in in any reality. For what it's worth also, there is still the uncertainty about Brennan Sorsby, the Texas Tech transfer quarterback. They've updated odds, by the way. Texas Tech went from 14 to 1 to win the College Football Playoff. They had opened there. They went as low as 11 to 1. They're now at 25 to 1. So, odds makers are looking going, yeah, this is probably a team that's that won't you make College Football Playoff now without Brennan Sorsby. Now, what's interesting also, their win total went from 11 to 10 and a half. So, it goes to show you what odds makers think of Texas Tech schedule. Not very good if even without Sorsby, they're still projected over under 10 and a half wins. They're still, by the way, still without Sorsby favored to win the Big 12 at at a plus 105. So, it'll be fascinating to see um what happens with Sorsby's situation. They're going to go to court. My feeling on it as we talked about, we did it in a previous episode, you know, please go check that out.
There's no way Brennan Sorsby should be allowed to play. There are black and white rules. For everyone who complains about the wild, wild west, the lawlessness in college athletics, well, the NCAA has a black and white rule.
They're trying to implement and enforce this rule, and instead schools just keep suing to get guys eligible despite the NCAA's ruling. So, uh it'll be fascinating to see what happens with Sorsby. Um I hope is he doesn't play because he broke a black and white rule and shouldn't uh be able to play. But, that could certainly affect what Texas Tech is this season and their competency. For what it's worth, the guy who would replace Sorsby if in fact Sorsby is not able to play, um and it and is ineligible, um his replacement, um Will Hammond, is 200 to 1 to win the Heisman Trophy. So, uh we'll follow that as it goes. I do not expect this game to happen. It makes no sense whatsoever for Texas to play this game the week before they already have a 10th power four game against Ohio State.
But that's to all of our disadvantage.
We we are the ones college football fans that lose by not having this game happen. But that's the system that's set up, which is why an expanded playoff fixes things like this cuz it would incentivize teams to play games like this instead of those garbage games nobody wants to see. Hey, do me a favor.
If you're watching with us on YouTube, please smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell so you're notified when we post a new video, and drop your comments. Let me know what you think. And if you're with us on podcast, salute, please subscribe on your favorite podcast app, rate us, leave a review, and keep coming back here to Overtime with Matt Muscona.
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