The Bitcoin Cycle Just Entered Its Most Dangerous Stage

Bitcoin's price movements are driven by a five-link chain: oil prices, Strait of Hormuz geopolitical events, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the four-year market cycle. The bottom of a bear market is not a single price point but a window that opens when the stock market tops and the AI trade breaks. The largest holder selling at a loss (Strategy's $216M sale) actually marked the bottom in 2022, demonstrating that major institutional sales can coincide with market bottoms rather than tops.