The TRUTH About The Bitcoin Bottom... (Don't Get Sidelined)

[00:00:00]GM, if you've been watching my channel for some time, you'll know about all the bottom signals I've been screaming about. Whether it's the weekly RSI divergence here, whether it's volatility coming down to accumulation levels, whether it's ETF outflows being the biggest in history in June, and we know the biggest ETF inflows were at the top back in July 2025.

[00:00:29]All the signals have been piling up.

[00:00:30]You've had Sailor, the guy who was never meant to sell, sold his Bitcoin at 60,200, and I said, "You're either going to see a 10K move either way." That's the max pain scenario. Not chilling at these lows. If you've been watching my videos for months, you'll know I talked about how inside week low sweep the same way you had an inside week high sweep is going to lead to a move upwards being the path of least resistance. The same way this led to a move down. Well, it's all been documented on my channel for those of you supporting and we do have high timeframe price action bottoms forming on Bitcoin, Salana, Ethereum.

[00:01:12]Been talking about this for weeks now.

[00:01:14]So, if you're not subscribed, I'm going to absolutely make sure my community crushes it for the next few years in this markets as long as I'm around on YouTube. So, make sure you do turn that bell on so you don't miss a video and you help a small channel help more traders like yourself if you found it valuable because we do have all of these signs that I've been talking about now starting to come into fruition in the market since February 6th. As I said, even though I got clown for it in the comments, this was your momentum bottom, 60K.

[00:01:47]The same way in 2022, you have your momentum bottom over here. And then your final sweep and reclaim similar, right? And of course, you also have your weekly RSI divergence over here. And you have volatility coming down to levels where only smart money remain because volatility coming down means price isn't moving much either way. When price doesn't move, retail, your uncle, your auntie, they stop caring about Bitcoin.

[00:02:19]And we know they stop caring at the bottom and they care at 69K in 2021. And Cardano's going to the moon. So, we're at the stage right now where all the bottom signals have been firing. It's the oversold asset. Since Q3, it's been up only while AI trade NASDAQ has been down only. And right now, we're currently above weekly market structure that I've been talking about, which is very key for Bitcoin because this would actually be the first weekly market structure break we've had all bare market because we weren't able to break this market structure. weren't able to break this market structure. It's been holding on every single move lower.

[00:03:11]And now we created new market structure at 65.7K.

[00:03:16]So if the weekly closes above there, that's going to be your first sign of a bullish weekly MSB. And again, I take you back to 2022. What was your sign of a bottom? Well, you had a high which led to the recent low and you broke above it. That is known as a weekly MSB, weekly market structure break, Dow theory. And this could potentially be setting up the same thing. Of course, you got 5 days to go, so a long time, but this would be a weekly market structure break if we close the weekly above there. This is the high that's led to the most recent low. So now we zoom into the daily.

[00:03:59]be watching a few scenarios here on Bitcoin. We've got a daily gap. This was the gap down when sailor sold 32 Bitcoin again eerily similar to 2022 where you have a gap down with the FTX crash after your momentum bottom. Well, right now what do we have? We have a gap down with your sailor fund after your momentum bottom. Very similar. So now we're creating the weekly market structure break. We're heading for this daily gap. How we react in this daily gap is going to be very indicative.

[00:04:35]Think if we just straight impulse through with a lot of strength, I could see Bitcoin then rebuilding over here and you set up your range then between 57K and 80K. Essentially that becomes your range high and this becomes your range low. So if we impulse above 73K, I think that's when you can say this summer is building up for a move to 84K come September, come October, and that's then your range set.

[00:05:09]But what's probably the actual better scenario than this, so barring a summer impulse move coming up would be Bitcoin pushing into this daily gap, initially rejecting, but finding support and building a much stronger base to then impulse through the gap a bit later on.

[00:05:31]This would actually probably be the best scenario as it's building that lengthy base here. But still with your low high higher low higher high structure. This is what I've been talking about confirms your bull market with your weekly market structure break.

[00:05:49]You get your last dip, your last riskoff event in August. If you're going to continue the summer chop and not get that, as I said, just impulse move and continuation towards 80K. That's what I'd be looking for. And yes, you can say the chart is still bearish by many metrics, especially while we don't have this weekly market structure break. And maybe it is just going to form a higher low and have to make a move lower before going higher later on. That's of course another scenario that we have to look at. But what's going to be key is how does it react to this gap? And what I think is most likely to happen is actually Bitcoin to initially reject the gap and form some sort of higher low later on in August, maybe September. And that will be the big sign when you then start breaking above your structure that we're going to continue on in this bull market. So watching Bitcoin how it reacts there.

[00:06:49]If we look at some of these altcoins, you've got similar setups going on when it comes to Ethereum. So, that's formed a double bottom and it's actually already impulse for its daily gap. So, Ethereum's got a lot less supply overhead. Doesn't have sailor selling.

[00:07:06]So, it's been relatively strong to Bitcoin and it's also doing the move that I just talked about there moving through this gap. And I think 2K is really a big psychological level here. I think it's going to push up towards 2K.

[00:07:21]And if that rejects, as long as this daily gap holds, that sets up for swing trades towards the upper end 2.5K. Then you've got a range between 1.5 to 2.5K to be dealing with.

[00:07:38]Now, maybe you just blast through 2K.

[00:07:40]And if that flips to support, then that's your scenario for a more impulse move in the summer, which is less likely, but also can happen. It's always better if you build your base first before doing that, but you don't always get what you want in the markets. That's what I'll be watching. Alternatively, 2K, how does ETH react to that big psychological number? Can you flip it or does it lead to a rejection? And February 6th, that's the big invalidation. You don't want to see price accepting below there. Otherwise, new lows are likely. It's the same for Bitcoin, same for Salana. Been very clear about the plan and the invalidation.

[00:08:16]So, path of least resistance is higher has been higher as I talked about on this video over here with all the bottoms forming that I was telling you guys about. Price action wise was showing it. That's still continuing to be the case. Crypto is the oversold asset. crypto seems to be the asset for the path of least resistance being higher because let's analyze what's happened guys over here 28th to 29th of June sailor sold Bitcoin an average of 60.2K 2K Bitcoin in reaction went up.

[00:08:53]Over here on Monday, sailor announced he sold that Bitcoin reaction, Bitcoin went up. Over here, you had US Iran escalations.

[00:09:03]Bitcoin reaction, it went up. Three pieces of bearish news, guys. What do I always tell you? You don't buy and sell based off news. You look at how is price reacting to the news. And your biggest showcase of longs being undercrowded and actually the short side, the sell side being overcrowded and wrong is simply price going higher when you have bearish news. And you don't even need the news. I mean, it's the clearest setup as day. You had a low here. You failed to break down below it. It was your inside week low that I talked about since April.

[00:09:40]You stay below it. Okay, cool.

[00:09:44]Markdown's coming. but you didn't stay below it. You have to adapt as a trader if you're a bear or you're hedging or whatever. This is where shorts start to get wrecked and they get punished. They didn't close out on the failed breakdown because failed breakdowns are bullish reversals with all the bearish news and price rising. That's your further sign.

[00:10:02]And then of course we had CPI drop. That was actually bullish news. And Bitcoin is the only asset that's gone higher in reaction to CPI. Gold is right around it. second best. S&P and NASDAQ are both below their CPI level. So, Bitcoin also coupled with everything I just told you about has relative strength.

[00:10:25]Path release resistance is higher, guys.

[00:10:27]Talking about it in the legal trading yesterday, Bitcoin, I think, is going towards 68 69K in the coming days. And we're already seeing that move start to play out today where this high over here is a pretty key one. So, we'll mark this out. We got 67.2K, which looks like we're going to touch off. Now, when Bitcoin starts closing above there, that's what confirms your first higher high. So, this is your low, but you still need to break the previous high to set a high. And if we do reject at some point, you want to be looking out for Bitcoin getting too bullish because this is going to start to look like a bullish chart to everyone soon. The higher Bitcoin goes, guys, the more people are going to be like, "Oh my god, Bitcoin's actually diverging against the stock market." Everything we've been talking about literally since the Q3 open, guys, since July, people are going to start talking about it over here. When it becomes consensus, that's probably when you're coming in for some sort of pullback before hiring. It can all be just part of one big base. That's what you're looking for. That's what you're betting on because it's exactly what I talked about for those of you that are new to the video. Talked about the reset signal of our lifetime in the July outlook. AI stocks h topping, Bitcoin bottoming. This was two weeks ago. Can't make this up. It's not hindsight analysis. I showed you guys how Bitcoin since the Q3 open. That was a typo. Said Q2, but obviously this was the Q3 open.

[00:11:56]If we actually get it up over here.

[00:11:58]There we go. There's the Q3 open. So, the Q2 open. That was actually correct what we saw. If I can get it back up.

[00:12:07]What was it?

[00:12:10]Let's see if I can keep forwarding it.

[00:12:13]So, since the Q2 open, so that was beginning of April, we had Bitcoin down, AI trade up, NASDAQ up, and S&P up.

[00:12:22]And since the Q3 open, we saw a complete reversion of that. We got Bitcoin up, NASDAQ down, AI trade down, and S&P flat. That was the reset signal I was talking about, guys, which is now coming into fruition. Two weeks ago, beginning of July, I made this video about AI stocks hopping and Bitcoin bombing. It's all coming into fruition now. You're going to start to see people talk about it, which is eventually when you actually want, as I said, look for pullbacks. Maybe you do just get that impulse move through the gap. If so, then great. You're looking for them pullbacks just from a higher place because people will get too euphoric too quickly. the higher Bitcoin rises, they'll start to see what we've been seeing for weeks now. But overall, really good sign on BTC, really good sign for crypto in general. And you start to now get the bullish news, guys.

[00:13:12]You start to get clarity at a 43% chance. And just a couple weeks ago, it was as low as 32%.

[00:13:19]How is that going to be perceived? If clarity goes through, it's perceived as bullish for crypto. It's perceived as bad for banks, bullish for crypto.

[00:13:27]people holding their assets in crypto, they're going to get a yield on it rather than the banks stealing all your money as they've done forever for eternity. It's pro- innovation.

[00:13:39]And I think you're starting to see the beauty or whatever you want to call it of Trump media, whatever you want to call it, name it, whatever you think of him. He does this time and time again. Let me show you exactly what he does.

[00:13:56]So Trump got elected as president November the 5th or November 6th over here and in his whole pre-election march Bitcoin and crypto was a key topic because crypto is now a big part of the vote guys in America and the world really. It's a big issue even when it comes to politics just to sway people over. So it's a big deal. It means a lot. And I remember he was in Nashville.

[00:14:26]He was rallying about Bitcoin, rallying about the strategic Bitcoin reserve, about pardoning Ross Albridge, firing Gary Gendo. Is all pro crypto, pro crypto, pro crypto. Why did he do that?

[00:14:38]Well, Bitcoin was correcting.

[00:14:42]And the best time to be bullish and talk well of an asset is when it's actually positioned well to go up. So, Bitcoin after a really bullish rally with the h havinging coming up was in this correction where longs were getting churned up. So, longs were not overcrowded. So, what do you do? You drop in the bullish news and then when you become president, it marks up right until your inauguration and you look amazing. Everyone who bought Bitcoin is like, "Oh my god, Trump pumped my bags. I'm so happy with it."

[00:15:19]But Trump understands markets. His team understands markets. They can't just go up only forever. And by the time he was inaugurated, it was an overcrowded trade. And you really didn't go much higher on Bitcoin at all after that. So instead of continuing to promote crypto Bitcoin and follow through with all the promises he made, well, why not shield the next best big thing because it's undercrowded. And what was that? Well, of course, that was the AI trade. At the exact same time when Bitcoin was toppy, which was around, you know, January 2025 onwards, you had your AI trade looking like this.

[00:16:00]Didn't look like a great chart, did it?

[00:16:04]January 2025 didn't look good at all.

[00:16:07]Now, that's the chart you start shilling again. Again, because it's under position to the long side. So, you start getting all the investment into the US and US-based AI companies and getting all the Saudi money, all the Middle Eastern money investing into the US, investing into AI, talking about how the US is going to be the AI capital of the world. What does that do? Well, everyone who owns these AI stocks are happy because guess what happening again? It's perceived as Trump is pumping my bags.

[00:16:39]And now what do you have guys? AI trade is rolling over. It's now the overcrowded long trade, not the one Trump needs to attach his image to. And what's the undercrowded trade? Well, the undercrowded trade is now once again Bitcoin, guys. It's the asset that's derisked. It's had an entire bare market for longer than any other asset because it's been since October 2025.

[00:17:04]Longs are not here. Wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing things like Clarity Act start coming through.

[00:17:10]Wouldn't be surprised if you start seeing more bullish crypto news come from Trump. Maybe I'm just speculating.

[00:17:16]Maybe I'm crazy. But these teams, there's billions of dollars on the line.

[00:17:21]I think you'd be naive to think that they don't understand a little bit about markets and when best to actually promote said asset, i.e. when it's positioning is actually most oversold because that's when your whole imprint you're putting on that asset class is likely to be positive for you because the assets going up. At the end of the day, people just want their bags pumped, guys. And that is what it is. People feel good when their portfolios are up.

[00:17:48]He's going to attach his name to anything. So, don't be surprised if you see bullish news coming up throughout the end of 2026, Q3, Q4. I think crypto is setting up really really well. All the stars are aligning if you like over the next few months. So be watching these scenarios. We've covered ETH 2K the key level. Then you're looking at a range between 1.5 and 2.5. We take a look at soul. So again February 6th levels the invalidation. You form that higher low bottom. Failed breakdown is a bullish reversal.

[00:18:20]You actually have closed above the daily gap on soul. So it's been the strongest in the medium term. Shortterm it's been a bit weaker than Bitcoin and ETH but again be expecting the same thing. We expect soul to continue building towards this liquidity at 88.

[00:18:37]That is the last area of liquidity before the big down move. So it's a big level most likely. And if you reject from there you just be watching the daily gap to see if that then acts as support. That's where you would expect it to act as support.

[00:18:54]Again, it's not going to follow this exact path. This is to give you guys a visual of the scenario I'm describing. You'll be looking at this daily gap to act as support. If you hit and reject off that liquidity, and I think 100 is that big psychological level then, and if you go to 100, then all of a sudden, Salana is in a range between 60 and 100. And that's now the levels that you're going to be working with for the foreseeable future.

[00:19:23]So path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin. It's high for crypto. We'll look at some other altcoins, ones we haven't checked up on in a while. But quickly, first we do have Bitcoin dominance rising while Bitcoin is rising. So you guys know, very strong and it's a very bullish signal when you actually have Bitcoin USD rising as well as Bitcoin dominance rising because it means flows are returning back to the main asset. It's flowing back to Bitcoin. The same way gold has to run first before silver runs. The same way Nvidia has to run first before Micron runs, you need Bitcoin going up with Bitcoin dominance up before you're going to get your big altcoin rallies. And speaking of all coins, we'll take a look at one we've talked about since 2 $3 VV.

[00:20:13]So, let's look at this chart over here.

[00:20:18]or where do we have all the drawings over here. So [sighs] BVV has had a nice correction. I don't think this is the bounce you want to buy into. This is often your first automatic reaction for you why lovers and people are likely to continue distributing and you want to see it start to base out and get boring. And maybe that's going to be at this 0.618 618 where if you come down into here and if you see any sniff of a higher low and higher high forming and breaks it's the time to get long on some of these altcoins that actually have shown strength this cycle not your polka dots or your sooies or XRPs that get shield nonsense online maybe the altcoins that I've actually mentioned to you guys like the ones that have gone out 2,000% and have been your best performers this entire bare market let alone bull market, they're going to have another leg in them because people remember what just pumped recently. So, would I buy it now? No. No way. If it just keeps rising here, it's just as likely to fall and maybe form some sort of range for later. Who knows? But that's likely to be a short squeeze back into resistance. But if it can follow this path, build that base, I'd be watching for internal high higher low structure for longs at least back towards here. but more likely moves to new all-time highs since you've only had one leg and assets usually have two or three legs before they're done and cook forever, especially when it comes to all coins until something changes and they do make new alltime highs circle over cycle. But nothing is but the trend of that yet. But that doesn't mean you can't make money. As I always say here on the channel, you got to be sensible with what you do though with your long-term portfolio. stack Bitcoin or stack S&P if that's you or real estate if that's you and trade altcoins. You do much better off that way. So that's what I'm looking at Bitcoin crypto-wise. Quick mention if you want VIP4 fees got a bunch of spots there to lock in your lifetime VIP4 account. So check that out. It'll be linked below. We also have a link to the League of Trading here. Drop me a message if you're interested in crushing the next cycle and beyond with us. So looking at stock market, we've actually seen Monday's candle not lead to follow through so far overnight on Tuesday's candle. So looks like you're probably just going to see some relief bounces, but I think likely another test on NASDAQ coming in the next few weeks. You got FOMOs next week. So if you rally into FOMOs, it's typically a local top.

[00:22:57]If you dump into FOMOs, it's typically a local bottom. So that's what I'll be watching for. We got a big catalyst week next week. Obviously, we got earnings that are being scattered around everywhere. So, this is going to cause a lot of volatility on some of your big names. So, we've got Tesla, Google, Intel, all reporting earnings over the next few days. And well, we look at some of these names. Obviously, you can see the weakness against crypto. Fact that NASDAQ's below its CPI level, S&P's below its CPI level, which should have been bullish news, guys.

[00:23:30]That was the market going from 45% likelihood of a rate hike next week to 12%. Why is NASDAQ and stocks down?

[00:23:38]Well, again, because markets move on positioning, not news, as I always say.

[00:23:43]So, if we look at some of the names, some of the leaders, what are they doing? Gives us an indication into the health of the stock market. Well, [gasps] we've got Nvidia, which, you know, it's by no means strong. Set a high in October 2025, swept it with a bearish false breakout.

[00:24:07]I'd be expecting this to come back down towards this weekly gap before all said and done. Maybe it goes higher from there, but don't think it's set to go higher from here with that false breakout. Unless, of course, you clearly mark up to new highs. That would be a change of character. But right now, breakouts are failing. When we look at semis as a whole, obviously we can see since Q3, it's been down only. A lot of distribution going on here. It's been the overly long trade and that's what's really hurting the NASDAQ of course. So, whatever it does, as I said yesterday, or if it goes down or if it goes sideways, I'm not expecting new highs anytime soon. You either capitulate people by going lower to liquidate longs or you capitulate people by going sideways for long enough that longs close their positions. Timebased capitulation or pricebased capitulation.

[00:25:05]There's two ways to do it, guys. So, I'd be looking at either of those scenarios because it's an overcrowded trade.

[00:25:11]Simple. Google, does this chart look bullish? Not really.

[00:25:17]I mean, you've again, you've set a high and what is this? It's just a false breakout above the high.

[00:25:25]When you have a false breakout above the high, as you do here, typically leads to a correction. Just simple price action. here instead of a false breakout above the high what do you get? You actually get a breakout. So you get some continuation and on the retest it holds and you get more continuation. So simple price action like looking at false breakouts are some of the best things in the world when it comes to high time frame trading. Google doesn't look that strong. Apple the strongest of them all. New alltime highs gaps now that is left behind to retest.

[00:26:00]Micron again showing the AI trade definitely overcooked here to say the least and that all comes with a strong dollar. So it's definitely headwinds. I think crypto is doing really well with the headwinds. Definitely key to note.

[00:26:15]Headwinds being US 2year. It's just been rallying since the June fy. to people betting on more hawkish monetary policy this year in the short term which is liquidity negative technically even though Bitcoin's saying no to that and especially inflation data said no to that you got the US 30-year also rising which is basically people voting that inflation's here to stay economic growth is going to be a problem long term so yeah I think that's a big reason why equities aren't liking it and very interested to see Bitcoin bucking that trend and performing well as well as whole of crypto bucking that trend. So, that's the market bin. That's the full update. Remember, if you enjoyed this video, you want to stay ahead of the curve, smash that sub, help a small channel grow so I can help all of you crush these next markets over the next few years. I'm going to keep dropping a video for each and every one of you because I know you find it valuable and I genuinely want to see everyone crush it. It makes me happy to see the comments and how much you guys learn from my channel versus, let's say, some of the old traditional big accounts that are past their expiry date and are simply teaching stuff to pump their own bank accounts pretty much. So, we'll see you guys in the next one. GM.