Can Bulls Keep Gains This Time?

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, I'm charting man Dan with the chart guys. Bitcoin bulls nice move up the last couple of days. Can we keep the gains? We've been seeing bull breaks with no follow through. We give it back.

[00:00:12]This time needs to be different. It's a little different. We'll talk about how it's slightly different. It also has warranted a little bit of extra attention on altcoins for me. I haven't cared about altcoins in a very long time. But if we're going to be looking at them for some potential action, now's the time.

[00:00:30]I'll I'll talk about that stuff. Learn how to trade stocks, crypto, and hype sectors with a global chat room led by professional traders as well as daily live streams at chartguys.com.

[00:00:44]So, first things first, the NASDAQ melt up insanity.

[00:00:51]As we've been saying in these streams, the the Bitcoin bulls are not comfortable just because in order to see further upside, we need the NASDAQ to keep melting up. The good news is it has kept melting up. Semiconductors are on absolute fire. Memory names are exploding to the upside. We are in market euphoria.

[00:01:13]And that's good because generally after market euphoria or during market euphoria, we see profits rotate around.

[00:01:20]And so it's still the semiconductor show, but we're going to be looking for profits to rotate into the financial sector, healthc care, software, metals, crypto, all these different places.

[00:01:32]Uranium. And so that's good. That's a good backdrop. It's a bullish backdrop to be in.

[00:01:39]And so as I speak, we're at all-time highs. And again, it's it's straight up.

[00:01:44]We've been talking about the meltup anomaly market, and we are in it. And that's good. So, Bitcoin has seen a nice few days. And again, it's just always in the context of comparing it to other things that it's not that great. You know, we're up 10% since last daily consolidation. But there are uranium names up 12% today.

[00:02:09]Quantum's up 12 whatever percent today.

[00:02:12]So, it just doesn't compare to other opportunities still. But, it is a solid uptrend. And we do have space for a daily higher low next consolidation.

[00:02:22]Bulls ideally want to hold this back test when we do see next consolidation which will align with daily EMA 12.

[00:02:28]There is an upper wick forming. There is some relative weakness to the NASDAQ today. There was relative strength yesterday.

[00:02:37]And so if you're an aggressive bear, you're zoomed in and you're hoping that this is a rising wedge that rolls over and we could draw an uptrend resistance line. This is going to be a bit sloppy.

[00:02:51]It's more of a channel. I mean, the hourly was just a rising wedge that broke bare.

[00:02:57]If we were drawing it on the hourly, it would be like this.

[00:03:05]So bear break back test and reject. So we're in consolidation mode and we may be shaping up daily consolidation and if we do I would consider anything above 749 a daily higher low. So it's slow and steady. It's not explosive. Again the the crypto audience wants explosive and Bitcoin certainly not doing that.

[00:03:27]Some altcoins are doing that ZEC which we'll talk about but uh overall bull control space for a daily higher low space for a weekly higher low but what's the saying comparison is the root of I don't know something not good when you're comparing yourself to others and that's just what Bitcoin is doing looking around the market at a lot of other significant bullish opportunities.

[00:03:51]The next resistance zone that I'm looking at is previous support from the way down.

[00:03:58]So all this action here where we were holding before rolling over and accelerating to the downside, that's resistance around uh 84 to 85,000. So that's the next thing to be watching.

[00:04:11]But again, in it in itself, it's not that bearish. It's just comparatively.

[00:04:20]So, we got to keep an eye on Bitcoin divided by the NASDAQ because this is going to break and give us some good information when it does because it's sideways. Look at how long we've just been, you know, we're stronger for a few days, then we're weaker for a few days.

[00:04:33]And we've been within this range now for almost two months. And this range is going to break. And obviously, it needs to break bull if it's going to be time to focus on crypto. That's really what it boils down to, right? As a full-time trader, my attention is valuable because I can't look at everything. I can't be trading everything. And you have to earn my attention. And by my, I mean everybody, all traders. You have to earn our attention. And again, it's just too many other opportunities elsewhere. If we start seeing relative strength to the NASDAQ, then it will start to mean this is a better spot to be looking. So bulls really need to get over this and turn it into support for relative strength to the NASDAQ because any bull market in crypto is just marked with significant relative strength to the NASDAQ. And these are the periods where it's most beneficial to be focusing on Bitcoin and crypto.

[00:05:38]ETH is very disappointing. ETH is much more disappointing than Bitcoin. This resistance zone is being very adequately defended by the bears. We just rejected by $1 from this resistance after four rejections from the lower level 2405 to 2425. And the bears are dug in to that trench. Again, daily consolidation just started and we do have space for a daily higher low. I'm just watching these zones and we're not going to get any information until one of these ranges breaks. But we know the burden's on bulls because again, if you're a bear looking at this chart, you are very comfortable and pleased with these rejections. What the bulls are hoping for is that this is building up pressure. This is building up shorts so that when we do, if we do finally break above it, that it leads to uh a nice quick squeeze and some follow through.

[00:06:34]So, bears win today and ETHBTC is extremely weak, showing us that uh Bitcoin is much stronger. It's just a daily downtrend guide. It's better to be in Bitcoin over Ethereum as long as we're setting daily lower highs and as long as daily EMA 12 is resistance. And so, when I bought Ethereum on the the capitulation flush back here, chose the right one, chose the right one, chose the right one, uh chose the wrong one. I mean, I guess it was the right one because it was the right one for a very long time. I don't know. But, uh, this is not what you want to see as an ETH bull. This this is showing significant relative weakness.

[00:07:19]There has been some strength in crypto stock. So, again, that's a nice opportunity. CRCL, we've been tracking this one for a while, and we just had a really good equilibrium bull break. If we go to the two-day time frame and we have earnings coming up to be aware of, but uh this was a great sign. Some some headline help with the clarity act and all that, but uh we had a nice hold of support. It was getting iffy. You know, our last stream, uh-oh, we better not break this level or that's a massive red flag. We held it and then broke resistance and then we back tested and held resistance as support at least so far. So the this is all great uh for CRCL bulls and if we can get over 13665 that will be a longterm bottom being set. We will still have to eventually confirm a monthly uptrend at some point but getting over that level is going to have us up, you know, 200% from the lows and give the bulls tons of space to work with. So that's a good sign. And Riot, shout out Riot. Monster break. So, this is what I'm talking about. We're bu you're building up pressure, reject from resistance, reject, reject, reject, and then when you finally break out, just power move and we had an earnings reaction. And unfortunately, one of the biggest reasons for this bull move is moving away from crypto.

[00:08:43]Riot goes nuclear.

[00:08:45]So, four-year highs after sealing a deal for, you know, AI power plants and nuclear collaboration and uranium stocks are doing great today. CCJ is up a bunch. OKLO is up a bunch. So, it's similar to where they just pivot to data centers and suddenly like, oh, you're you're moving on from crypto. Great. We'll put money into you. Uh that's that's what the market is telling these crypto stocks. It's to pivot. Uh and so, you know, that's a great move on Riot.

[00:09:24]Four-year highs is nothing to sneeze at.

[00:09:26]But, you know, it's it's and it's not four-year highs. That's a wrong headline. Uh you got to get over 2394 to get to that level. But again, this is a a long-term sideways base for years trying to break bulls. So, Riot has much more of my attention. I'll be scouting hourly oversold looking for a daily high or low at some point. Uh but jumping on the nuclear uranium narrative and uh moving away from the crypto narrative.

[00:09:57]Crypto ain't sexy like it used to be.

[00:10:00]Uranium's sexy, but DEC. So, again, let's talk altcoins now. And and yesterday morning, just seeing, okay, Bitcoin at least is putting up a couple green candles in a row, uh, that's worth something. And so, my mindset yesterday morning with Bitcoin bulls gaining a little confidence, finally holding some gains, that warrants some extra attention to all the alts that are trading sideways and trying to break bull. Confidence is contagious. All bull breaks are needed for confidence to continue. Names like link approaching six week highs. So again, just looking at tightening ranges and there have been a handful that have broken bull. And so link got right up to resistance and was unable to convincingly break. But a couple days of green, you know, trying to break bull from this sideways base and name like ZEC did it in a a really impressive way.

[00:10:57]So we got the initial bull break setting the monthly higher low then just a standard equilibrium and as soon as that equilibrium broke bull at 367 there was no looking back.

[00:11:09]So, how's that for confidence and follow through? When you break resistance, if you can then daily stair step and just give no doubt, you know, if you break resistance and then start daily consolidation, you got to be cautious.

[00:11:22]If you break daily resistance, you don't have to shoot up right away. The next day was almost an inside bar, but it was a higher low every single day. And that just kept the momentum going and kept the move going. And eventually we ended up from that equilibrium bull break up 65% in less than a week. So that's extremely impressive. It's on increasing bull volume. Uh ZEC great move off that monthly inside bar bull break and looking back up at alltime highs. So daily uptrend is going to be our guide there. We'll see if back burners are working. We'll watch for our or well let's let's see we'll watch for 15minute oversold to try and mark a 4 hour higher low. Definitely a lead bull to be keeping an eye on but you know again all bulls aren't complaining considering what we're coming from. They're getting some action. They're trying to break these sideways ranges bullish OP approaching its February March April 2 and a half month highs. So, there's a handful of names that are doing that. My point is, uh, there's just enough strength and euphoria in the broader market to have Bitcoin hold on to gains a little bit better to have bulls keep an extra eye on altcoins.

[00:12:47]All that said, it is still only a few at this point that are uh proving that they can break out and follow through.

[00:13:01]Okay, NASDAQ all bull. So, Bitcoin from here, let's just zoom in a little bit. Bears will need to confirm a 4hour downtrend for convincing daily consolidation to be underway. We're still a 4hour EMA 12 rider.

[00:13:19]We don't even have an hourly downtrend yet. So, if we break 811, it'll be an hourly downtrend. Then, we'll zoom out to the 4 hour and then the bears have to confirm a 4hour downtrend for convincing daily consolidation to be underway.

[00:13:37]A simple statement would be if the Bitcoin bulls can hold 4hour EMA 12 here, uh they can keep momentum going this week.

[00:13:48]So that's an ideal scenario. Let's just say hold 80.7 and bulls can keep momentum. Lose it and we're going to be on the daily and watch daily watch this back test of resistance and daily EMA 12 to look for a daily higher low. But 80.7 is the short-term line in the sand for the bulls to try and keep some momentum and control.

[00:14:18]All right, good afternoon.

[00:14:24]Thanks for tuning in and clicking like.

[00:14:28]So, I'm I'm watching for rotation from semiconductors, but semiconductors just refuse to top. They refused to top. I thought it was today. I thought, okay, it's time for daily consolidation. And the answer is, nope, not yet. And the reason is we're seeing rotation where you get names like AMD, of course, their earnings, but there's just nobody's slowing down. Even MU profit taking and we're going to, you know, here would be an all-time high close. Uh, it's just we're not done yet. I'm watching for rotation.

[00:15:03]Uh I'm I'm ready for it, but uh there's been a couple head fakes where semis are just saying not yet. And crypto could potentially be a place that does see some rotation. Uh you know, I don't expect semis topping out to suddenly be the the sign that crypto bulls needed to take over. But uh again once the leader tops out that's it's the same way like we look at you know crypto as a microcosm bitcoin leads the way it tops out it trades in a sideways range and rotation happens into altcoins. We're looking for the same thing to happen in the broader market with semis. Give me a semis. I was looking for it to happen here and I was wrong. I was looking for this to tighten up for this week and nope.

[00:15:56]So eventually we will top out, we'll pull back, we'll set a daily high or low and we'll find a sideways range and that's when uh we look for the the the signs of rotation and where is the capital flowing most significantly.

[00:16:16]Nothing wrong with taking profits in the meltup.

[00:16:26]We got a troll.

[00:16:29]See you.

[00:16:31]It's funny when you there's a you know a a certain troll like when someone has mental problems because they keep you know it's the same person who keeps coming back for years and then you feel bad for them because it's like man you you really don't have much going on in your life but and then you also don't want to say anything too bad because they have mental problems and you're kind of afraid of them. So that's that guy.

[00:17:01]Nice to see you.

[00:17:04]TRX.

[00:17:12]Yeah, just a bull. A grind bull.

[00:17:15]That monthly EMA 12. If again, it's never flashy. It's never going to get the headlines for monster gains, but it's just slow and steady. I don't know what mechanism has that bull control, but uh it's it's a nice it's slow and steady and a good uptrend near.

[00:17:49]So yeah, another name trying to break that tightening range bullish and technically did. That's a weekly equilibrium that broke bull over 144.

[00:17:56]Got to break 151 to follow through. And we did. So that's a weekly equilibrium bull break. That's a good start.

[00:18:05]So now what do we want to see next consolidation?

[00:18:10]Got to hold I'm looking at this zone.

[00:18:15]That's too many lines. But I'm looking at this zone to try and hold a back test if we're going to follow through because again, right now it's just a one-day candle. And that's great. We'll take it.

[00:18:27]But but look back at the other similar candles. One day, give back most of it.

[00:18:32]One day, give back most of it. So prove if we're going to prove that we're not going to get back most of it, we will hold the back test of 143.

[00:18:42]Next consolidation.

[00:18:44]And the next resistance to be watching up in the 180s, that previous top, 181 to 189 ADA.

[00:19:12]Again, another one. The sideways range broke bull. There is an upper wick of profit taking. Need to keep that 4hour healthy. If any anything that's breaking bull and forming an upper c upper wick on the daily candle, if you could keep 4hour EMA 12, that's no big deal because you're just cooling off RSI levels. I'm sure we were firing some super stacks just in how overbought we were there.

[00:19:35]Yeah, 12-hour super stack. When's the last time we had a 12-hour overbought super stack on ADA? The answer is it has been a very long time.

[00:19:50]So what does that mean? That means we were overbought and not just over 70 RSI. We were heavily overbought on the 12 hour, the 4 hour, the hourly, the 30 minute, the 15-minute, the 5 minute, all at the same time. And the way that RSI is calculated, when you're in a constricted equilibrium in a sideways range, those RSI levels, whether you break bull or bear, they get extended very quickly. And so that's what happened here. And so it's not surprising at all to need to consolidate from a 12-h hour superst.

[00:20:24]That's the most overbought ADA has been on the 12-h hour on down time frame in a very long time. So, if you could set a healthy 4 hour high or low, cool off all those RSI levels, and then keep going, that would be a great sign. But there's a lot of work to do here because ADA is coming from a disadvantage. There's many names that are breaking the sideways range. And when they're doing that, they're breaking to the highest level.

[00:20:51]They would essentially be over these February highs. And because ADA has had relative weakness, we still need a lot.

[00:21:00]We need 20% from here to get back to that resistance. And again, just using link as the example, it wasn't able to follow through, but it broke February highs. So that's just an example. Those two, if we compare them, that's one where you could say link very clearly has relative strength comparative to ADA.

[00:21:26]One just had a slow grind up and the other one just had a slow grind down for all of March and April. So, they're coming from pretty significant uh different standpoints.

[00:21:40]So, any name that's like ADA that has that slow bleed, they've got uh a steeper hill to climb, so to speak.

[00:21:52]Metals are looking for a weekly trend change. Weekly higher lows are set. That was the most likely scenario we've been talking about. If we confirm the weekly uptrend, monthly higher lows will be shaping up. Talk I talk about them in every weekend video.

[00:22:06]What's up?

[00:22:08]An entigris. I don't know what that is.

[00:22:14]No dash.

[00:22:27]Great bull break. Weekly uptrend confirmed.

[00:22:32]No, not officially because it stayed a stair step.

[00:22:37]Well, dinky pivot, but continuation. So, let's go monthly.

[00:22:44]Still a lot of work to do to get back to where we came from, but a nice shift. So again, same thing. Next consolidation, whether it's the 12h hour or the daily, whenever ideally want to hold that $48 back test of resistance as support to try and keep the momentum going. And again, just look at the prior characteristics.

[00:23:04]What did we see? We saw a daily stairstep monster move. Once we topped, that was it. We gave it all back. Daily stair step, monster move. Once we topped, that was it. We gave it all back. Daily stair step, baby monster move, solid move. When we top and lose the daily stairst step, do we give it all back like all these other prior times or can the market show us something is different? Can we consolidate for 2, three days and see continuation? That would be a huge signal that something is different from what we've been seeing over the last five months. Prove it, bulls. Prove to us that something is different with this pump because bears are going to be all over once that stairst step breaks trying for history to continue repeating itself as it has done the last three times.

[00:24:05]So that's a tricky one. When gig starts consolidation, will the lagards catch a bid or will they also consolidate? Both can happen obviously, but there will be times. So, think about in Bitcoin's instance. Bitcoin will lead the way and when it tops out and pulls back to find a daily higher low to then trade in a sideways range, it's pullback alts drop hard and then the alts recover faster when it starts trading sideways. It's almost like a a shakeout.

[00:24:37]And the way the mechanisms there's a lot of automated trading obviously in in stocks and the way the mechanisms are currently set up they are inverse.

[00:24:47]There's paired trades that are going on where you can see just tick fortick inverse action in some sectors where you will see the NASDAQ's hitting the high of the day and the financial sectors hitting the low of the day. And so I'm wondering I don't have the answer as to which it's going to be. It could be either, but uh there's all there's the possibility that those paired trades flip where either profit taking or shorting in semis turns on the buy bots like today this morning it it happened in a good way where SMH drops from 955 this is semis 955 to 1020 so 25 minutes of weakness before Vshape while that was happening this is software ware software.

[00:25:36]What times did I say 9:55 to 10:20 software?

[00:25:43]Here's 9:55.

[00:25:45]Here's 10:30. So, very roughly same time frame inverse and then semis Vshape back to the highs and software pulls back a bit. And look at look at the MAG 7 Meta.

[00:25:59]So, Meta was trying to go inverse.

[00:26:01]Here's 955 and again it lasts but 1020 inverse to semis. Microsoft inverse to semis. So again there's there was clearly paired trading going automated paired trading going on and uh I'm the the bulls hope that that continues to remain the case. We get little glimpses of it and then it fades. It's really strong in the morning and then it fades into the afternoon. Uh, but that's something to be watching for.

[00:26:42]Litecoin probably sucks.

[00:26:49]Still sideways, but again, you got to get over. So, we cleared one little resistance level barely. You got to get over the highs. It's the market is the bottom the February bottom are for every individual name February bottom high of the bounce as a result of the February bottom sideways range at least Litecoin is straight sideways right it didn't have the slow bleed like ADA so bulls at least have that going for them it's getting this you know you you won't find a range this tight this is the twoe time frame when's the last time Litecoin has been this tight for the last two and a half months.

[00:27:34]It might be never. It might be since 2017. So what does that tell us? That tells us volatility is coming. This is just a rubber band stretching tighter and tighter and tighter. Potential energy or kinetic energy. I forget my Newton laws. And it's going to snap.

[00:27:56]And uh bulls obviously are hoping it snaps into a monthly bounce and then we scout a monthly lower high eventually.

[00:28:03]But prove it. You got to get over resistance and we are still rangebound lun.

[00:28:22]Yeah, that's a beauty for find the writer. Find the EMA rider. 12-hour EMA 12 only a couple touches.

[00:28:36]Definitely, you know, I'd be taking profit at this point. Uh you're not looking long up here at this point. It would be waiting for hourly oversold to try and find a daily higher low.

[00:28:48]They could align hourly oversold to 12hour EMA 12.

[00:28:54]Let's see when the last one happened.

[00:29:00]Yeah, that was hourly oversold. 12-h hour EMA 12-h hour high or low.

[00:29:04]Perfecto.

[00:29:06]Was it enough to be a back burner?

[00:29:10]Yep, that's a good one.

[00:29:14]Bam.

[00:29:18]So again, it's hard to the tricky thing about crypto right now is it's hard to have confidence in a back burner for an individual name. I've got confidence up the wazoo when I've got a Bitcoin back burner aligning with altcoin back burners and we've been in a bull market and you know it's dip buying and everybody knows it's dip buying season.

[00:29:38]Uh we don't have that. We've got just these oneoff individual names having monster moves. It's way harder. You know, if you give me this in a bull market, I've got 87% conviction in that hourly back burner.

[00:29:55]You give it to me as an individual coin with the current backdrop of crypto, I've got a 60 60% confidence in that hourly back burner. It's very different.

[00:30:08]So, it's it's much harder to have that kind of confidence.

[00:30:22]What are our super stacks on futures at daily? That's all right. We're not even weekly. Nah, we're okay. I mean daily consolidation is inevitable but you know MU is putting up monthly super stacks so that's very different yesterday we started firing monthly super stacks 15 minute was a nice bounce I'm concerned of monthly even weekly but the weekly RSI on the NASDAQ 70 I mean we're just getting into the power zone We'll see.

[00:31:09]Just waiting for bears to give me a reason. Profit taking for sure, but I'm I'm looking long until bears clearly tell me things are different.

[00:31:18]I've been in that mindset for three weeks at this point.

[00:31:35]Netflix has earnings weakness overhang.

[00:31:38]It's hung over from earnings. It just can't shake it.

[00:31:45]So, that's a a bit of a individual case.

[00:31:53]MSTR. What are we doing? Michael Sailor selling. What the? Dude's a weirdo.

[00:32:00]Resistance zone. So, I don't know when I drew this, but here we are rejecting from it.

[00:32:08]19020 to 19840 resistance zone. Rejected right from it. Daily higher low is the most likely scenario, but got to get over that wall.

[00:32:25]trying to put in a bottom.

[00:32:28]Let's compare to Bitcoin. MSTR divided by Bitcoin or we can just do IBIT because they have the same trading hours. So, yeah, it's had nice relative strength, but very clear line in the sand. If we lose the daily uptrend without breaking this zone, it's a solid rejection.

[00:32:46]Initial rejection, that's fine. Just keep a healthy daily high or low to be able to give it another go.

[00:33:11]We got plenty of We got ticker request videos every weekend from chart guide members. I talk about my trade reviews in in the weekend videos very often. I talked about my PLTR and IGV trade in last week's video.

[00:33:26]Um, so they're there.

[00:33:41]I did do my video about cannabis and psychedelics.

[00:34:04]We already did ZEC sign from the bears in what? The NASDAQ.

[00:34:13]I mean, when's the last time the NASDAQ has confirmed a 4hour downtrend?

[00:34:17]When's it? Look at the 12-h hour EMA 12 right here. Keep it simple. If 12-h hour EMA 12 is support, the bears are not proving anything. Lose it, something's different. Something is shifting.

[00:34:41]All right, I'mma wrap it up and keep an eye on the close. Another hour to go.

[00:34:52]Bitcoin 80.7 is the level to hold to remain within striking distance of resistance.

[00:35:07]And yeah, the daily live streams for the chart guys every morning at 9:00 a.m. Pl that's that's your spot to ask away for all the questions your heart desires.

[00:35:22]Okay. Do good things.

[00:35:26]Keep an extra eye on altcoins.

[00:35:28]crypto stocks doing good things and I hope you have a great