XRP BOUNCE INCOMING! - Ripple XRP Top Down Technical Analysis

[00:00:00]Hey guys, what's up? Pip Snipers here back for another update. Let's take a look here at XRP. We're going to take a look at XRP on the macro and we're also going to zoom in and take a look at what XRP is doing on the small time frame.

[00:00:13]We're also going to jump into we're also going to delve into uh the current long position that we have running and why we took it. So, let's get started. When you take a fib from the low that was set in early July of 2024, take a look here.

[00:00:31]So, right over here, you guys can see that early July of 2024, we had our low. Okay? Then you had this fivewave move up for your wave 1.

[00:00:50]Then you come down for a WXY correction for your wave two.

[00:00:56]Okay? Then you have this huge push up.

[00:01:00]This would be your three, your four, and then your five. Okay? You know, usually in crypto, what happens when you have a very impulsive move up and the and the asset is ready to push higher, like it's in a buy program. What you're going to see is you're going to see your what you're one, right? Your two, which is normal, and then you're going to see this huge push up like that. And it's very vertical. The move is very very vertical uh when when the acid is in a buy program. And then sometimes you will get this like a a quick wave four because you had a larger wave two and then you have this last push up. Okay. Now a lot of people a lot of market participants get faked out and they get put on the wrong side of the market. They get wrongfooted because they think that oh okay it's going to move higher. There's no way that the top is in. It's likely going to consolidate like this, go sideways, and then push up like that. But this is where a lot of people uh get wrongfooted when the acid is in a bull run. Okay? Because what happens is this is actually your wave three.

[00:02:22]This is actually your wave three, your wave four, and then your wave five. And then this consolidation is what puts people is what is what wrongfoots people wrongfoots market particip market participants because they think it's some sort of you know ABC sideways range and it does that for for your wave five and then this would be your wave four but in reality if you look at you know the market structure of XRP you can see that we topped in Q4 of the post of the posth having year. Okay.

[00:03:00]So if you look over here, this was July 22nd and then Bitcoin topped about 2 months later while XRP was in this consolidation region. Okay.

[00:03:18]So, this we're expecting an ABC correction because if this is impulsive, then that means we're in the C-wave. This would be your A. This is your B. And then right now, we're still in the C-wave. And it's just a slow slow grind down, right? you actually in uh in bare markets you spend most of the time going up than than you do going down. As you know crazy as that may sound that's how we that's usually what happens in uh bare markets. So how do you how would you profit in a bare market and you know you can be right on direction but timing is what matters the most. So, let's just say the price is going down, right? You want to know and you you already know we're in a bare market, right? So, where would you place your short?

[00:04:21]You would place your short after the terminal price. So after the what the terminal price is is where price sees what it's it's basically the peak price before you continue the downtrend. So how do you get in and how do you know where the peak price is? How do you know during this downtrend where the peak price is? It's very very simple. you would just have to wait for a sweep. So, let's just pretend we're over here, okay? Or even over here. And the price like when and then so this is the high time frame what it would look like and this is the small time frame. So now I'll put it in white the small time frame. So pretend we're zooming in over here and I'm drawing what's what's happening on the small time frame. So like look right, you go up, you're going up up up and then you you look for adjacent highs. So let's say you sweep an adjacent high, right?

[00:05:36]You sweep an adjacent high and then you see the volume declining and you pull out your RSI. If you see hidden bearish divergence or bearish divergence of any kind, you know that after sweeping that high, you're likely to proceed down to the low that was set before this counter trend rally. Okay, so remember this is small time frame. This is what we're doing over here. Okay. So, um if you see retraction back below the high that was set, right? Retraction back below it. That would be confirmation to take the short. So, you would take the short. Let's say you entered right here, right?

[00:06:23]Let's say you entered right here after the price comes down back below that sweep back below that uh sweep line.

[00:06:34]Okay, we'll just place it like this.

[00:06:36]Okay.

[00:06:41]Okay. So, let's say you entered right here. Your entry was right here. And then you'd be basically getting in at the terminal price before this move. You want to capitalize on this move right here. This move. You don't want to be stuck in chop, right? So that's that's exactly how to profit during a downtrend. Okay.

[00:07:07]Um so we see that we see that all the way down. Look, let's delete everything on this chart.

[00:07:17]and I'll show you guys.

[00:07:22]Okay, where's the terminal price? Right. I'll show you the terminal price all the way down and how much trades you could have taken and how much and you'll see exactly how easy this is. You see these are the terminal prices.

[00:07:50]So you get in after the sweep after you see a move back below the red line. And it even works right down to the small time frame. We can go to the five minute We can go to the five minute here and I'll show you guys or you know what let's go on the uh let's go on the 15minut time frame you see right down to the small time frame it works right okay and when you see retraction back below that line. That's when you would that's when you would take the short and you'd capitalize off of the volatility or the velocity that comes after it. Okay, so here is the terminal price. Here is the terminal price. Over here is the terminal price.

[00:08:55]And then let's go uh back up to the daily and I'll show you right here.

[00:09:04]Here is the terminal price. Here is the terminal price over here. Over here. Do you guys see? So you're you're getting in at the most optimal time, right?

[00:09:16]You're getting in on the trade at the most optimal time because remember time in price is super important in trading. If you're only focused on price, then it's likely that you won't be successful as a trader because you need to see, okay, when do I take the trade? What time what times of day are the best time to take the trade? When when should I short, when should I long? This is the easiest strategy to use, okay, in order to capitalize on that. So, let's let's go all the way back here.

[00:09:54]Let's go all the way back and uh get my drawings back on the screen because I deleted everything.

[00:10:01]Okay, right here. So, look. Now, let's go back to this uh what I was saying on fib. So if you take a fib all the way from early July of 2024 at the bottom of wave 1 all the way to the peak price, you can see that we have hit the 78.6% fib. And usually when you hit the 786, especially in, you know, bare markets, you're going to see a rally to the upside or a counter trend rally.

[00:10:35]Okay, you guys see how we hit the 786 on the right hand side? If you guys look, I'll make the I'll make it a little bit bigger so you guys can see. Okay, we hit the 786.

[00:10:48]And every time we go below the 786, you can see that buyers are stepping in. So, right over here, see, you go below it, buyers stepped in.

[00:11:00]You go below it, buyer stepped in. Below it, buyer stepped in. below it. Buyer stepped in. And then what do we see when you zoom out a little? We see the three floor strategy. So I teach this strategy um to my members. I've also explained it multiple times on YouTube. So when you have three floors and what do I mean by three floors?

[00:11:26]You set a floor in the price before you see a significant uh rally. Right? This was your significant rally up. Okay, you set a floor. This is your first floor.

[00:11:37]And then you come down to sweep this.

[00:11:39]You come down to sweep that floor right here.

[00:11:44]Okay. And after you sweep it, you see another rally, but it's a failed attempt. And then you come down for one more sweep. And this is your third floor. You sweep it and then you rally back up. Then you form a higher low with a sweep on the small time frame. And that's your confirmation enter. Okay, so those are your three floors. Um, and then you also swept a very Oh, and then you also hit the 786, okay, at 1.0933.

[00:12:14]So, let's jump into the small time frame and we're going to explain exactly what we see here.

[00:12:21]Do you guys see?

[00:12:25]Do you guys see how we have a higher low, low, low, higher low? Right? These are all higher lows. And you can see that we're trending up. Very simple. We're trending up. And if you zoom in a little, you can see that this was a short-term top right up here.

[00:12:52]And then you come down, you set a floor, you come up, and then you sweep that floor. Okay? And then we entered the trade. We entered along over here in the Discord.

[00:13:07]We entered right here. Okay? And we put the stop-loss just below this wick. So a clear invalidation level. So when it So like I was showing you guys, you want to get in on the terminal price or get in just after the terminal price as long as price is still within this range.

[00:13:28]As long as price is still within this range. And where would where would your invalidation for the trade be? Very simple. Right at this right at the wick, right at the sweep, right? And you know, sometimes you may have scam wicks in crypto. So you can place the stop loss just a little bit below it below the sweep. Okay. So we're in this trade right here forming a higher low structure currently in a sideways range.

[00:13:52]Uh looks like accumulation and then uh we're expecting a move up to the 200 day moving average. Okay. We can also place the 21week on the chart.

[00:14:26]Okay, so the 21 week sits at 1.3056 and the and the 200 day sits at 1.424.

[00:14:36]So I'm expecting price to come up to that level and that's exactly where the uh 70% fib lies as well. Now remember this fib, right? This 70% fib this 70% fib is derived by taking a fib from the July 2024 lows up to the 2026 peak.

[00:14:55]Okay. Uh so coming up to that 70% fib wouldn't be something out of the ordinary as long as Bitcoin continues to um set higher highs and higher lows on the small time frame. Okay. So if you take a look at BTC, we're just going to take a look at it very quickly. You guys can see that we're still trending up. We're still trending up on BTC.

[00:15:21]Okay, like that. And I think BTC is going to come up to around the 88.6% fib and then turn down in Q4, turn down towards the Q4 low. Okay. So usually we have uh retraces um in the summer in bare markets.

[00:15:44]So we're expecting PTC to come up here very simply put the 886 fib right and then come down like this.

[00:15:55]Okay, around this region is would be considered overheated. Okay.

[00:16:01]So when we look at XRP, if Bitcoin continues to go higher, then it wouldn't be something out of the ordinary for XRP to come up to the 70% fib, the macro 70% fib. Also the uh 21we and the 200 day moving average and then turn down towards the 88.6% fib uh at 76 to 75.

[00:16:30]Now, why do I think the 886 is going to get tagged? because I think that Bitcoin is going to, you know, after Bitcoin sees a retrace um in the summer, I think that in the tail end of summer, we're going to see vol we're going to see bearishness start picking back up um and head down to uh around 40,000, the low 40s, okay, into Q4, maybe uh late September to October.

[00:17:02]um th that would be those would be the key DCA months. Um but it's important to note that let's if Bitcoin bottoms and then find strength, your favorite altcoin may not recover or if it's a altcoin with a promising future, right, and it has a strong chart, then it may range sideways.

[00:17:32]during Bitcoin's first initial move up.

[00:17:35]So that's why it's very important to see where your altcoin is um compared to Bitcoin. So you always want to look at the alt versus Bitcoin pair in order to in order to you know not get screwed by time not get screwed by time versus opportunity cost. Okay. So now we're coming back to XRP here. When you come down to the 786, right? Let's say this is the 786, okay? 786 fib. You're going to see a retrace that's going to lull a lot of people back into the market, give them a false sense of security, thinking that the bottom is in. But what happens is once you once the retrace is finished after uh seeing a bounce off the 786, you then come down to the 886 and then that usually sets the low. Now, I've been explaining this theory for years now, right? Even when even when XRP was in a bare market all the way in 2024, 2023, when you hit the 786, you're likely going to see a retrace. It's going to lull a lot of people back in before the final low gets set towards the 886. And I think that the 886 is going to get tagged on XRP at 76 um in Q4. Okay? So, near the end of the year. So, just be cognizant of the potential for XRP to continue on higher here um towards a$130, you know, retrace, have a reversion back to the mean because you're you're too extended to the downside here. And we can even see that when we pull out the uh RSI on the daily, we have bullish divergence.

[00:19:18]Even on the 3-day, we've come down to uh oversold territory.

[00:19:26]And we're forming bullish divergence here. Lower lows and higher lows on the RSI. Now, what do I mean by reversion back to the mean? This is very extended.

[00:19:38]You don't have any significant retraces to the upside. Do you guys see how extended we are? Right? So coming up to break this downtrend momentarily is you know it would be expected with everything that we have right the bullish divergence on the daily RSI bullish divergence on the 3-day a move down to the 786 a sweep on the small time frame our three floor strategy right when we have all of these things aligning with a bullish Bitcoin then it makes sense for XRP to come up a clear invalidation level would be seeing a daily close below 1.0526 which is the low that was set in June.

[00:20:25]So June 6th. So 1.0526.

[00:20:29]If we see a daily close below that then you know we're coming down to the 886 before we see this re before we see this uh projected retrace. Okay. I hope you guys enjoyed the XRP video today. If you guys have any questions, please feel free to let me know. And if you guys are looking for some mentorship during this bare market, you guys are looking to try to make money, um, then click that link in the description below to join the Patreon. Peace out and take it easy.

[00:20:54]I'll see you guys in the next one.