This Historical Crossover Predicted Every Bottom!

[00:00:00]This historical crossover predicted every single Bitcoin bear market bottom just ahead of a new major bull market. So, that is what we need to discuss within today's video because this crossover is now happening once again for Bitcoin. So, that indicates that the Bitcoin bear market bottom is now getting very close. In today's video, I will give a technical and both practical explanation of what this signal means and why it is so important. And I will also show you a way you can actually claim this indicator yourself completely for free later in today's video. So, make sure you stay watching all the way until the end. Before we dive in, make sure to subscribe to the channel, watch and like my latest YouTube videos, and then we can talk about this historical Bitcoin crossover. Because the Bitcoin age band cost basis is now making a crossover with two of the most important bands of the indicator. And before we dive into the technical aspect of the indicator here and what's going to happen next for Bitcoin, it is important that you understand what these lines actually mean here because we have band one, which is a green line, and that is the 6-monthly to 12-monthly line, and we have the orange line, which is the band two, 12-monthly to 18-monthly line. So, what are we looking into? The Bitcoin age band cost basis, so the Bitcoin realized price UTXO age bands.

[00:01:31]So, first the building blocks, what is an UTXO? A UTXO is short for an unspent transaction output. It is how Bitcoin is basically keeping the books. The moment you spend one, it is destroyed and new UTXOs are made. So, that every UTXO actually carries a timestamp and the price at which it last moved. So, the blockchain remembers exactly when every coin changed hands, and the age bands simply group all coins by how long they have set unmoved. And then we have two bands. We have the green line, that is the average cost basis of coins that last moved between 6 and 12 months ago.

[00:02:12]And we have the orange line, that is the cost basis of coins that last moved between 12 and 18 months ago. So, here we have basically the first segment of long-term Bitcoin holders. And the orange line, 12 to 18 months, definitely long-term holders and usually people with a little bit more conviction in Bitcoin. So, with a crossover, what happens on the chart? The supply the band one of 6 month to 12 monthly old UTXOs, so that age band is actually coming down, which potentially means that this age band is actually selling off some Bitcoin. And the band two, 12 monthly to 18 monthly supply, is actually moving up. So, that means that Bitcoin is changing hands here. These bigger long-term holders with more conviction in Bitcoin are buying the coins of the first long-term holders that now seem to be capitulating. And that isn't very important signal, because close to bear market bottoms, you do always see that even the long-term holders, and then one of the first age bands, will start to capitulate before that next bull market.

[00:03:21]And that is why this crossover, where band one falls below band two, has always marked moments very close or basically at the bear market bottoms.

[00:03:32]So, if we zoom back in time, we had the first crossover here in 2015, where it basically marked a moment super and super close to the bear market bottom. And then, of course, we had an absolutely amazing and massive bull market. Same can be said for 2018-2019, where we had the crossover, and actually at that moment the Bitcoin bottom was already in. 2022, we had the crossover basically at the FTX capitulation event.

[00:03:59]So, you could argue that the bottom was in. Maybe just not, but one conclusion we can make is that the bottom was super and super close at the moment of the crossover in 2022. And then what followed, of course, a big bull market again. Now, once again, we have this crossover for the first time here since it flipped positive again. Now, once again, we have this crossover for the first time since 2022 again. And I think it once again shows that the Bitcoin bear market bottom is very and very close. I do not truly think that the Bitcoin bear market bottom is in. It could be the case, but just like in 2022, I think there could be one just a little bit of a move lower before the next bull market is truly going to kick off. But, the conclusion we can make is that even some long-term holders are now starting to capitulate. Once the green band falls towards and below the orange band, as of is happening now, it means that the on-chain record of the top is being digested partly by time, as the euphoria buys simply age out of the window, of course, but also by pain, as the ones who could not hold reset their coins at lower prices, usually into the hands of the patient buyers above. When green finally slips on the orange, the youngest generations' average entry is cheaper than the older generation. There is no longer a large cohort sitting on very top-priced coins waiting to capitulate. So, that is, of course, a big reason why the bottom then is actually very close for Bitcoin. Because as we continue through this entire bear market, the sell pressure eventually gets less and less aggressive, and that means that Bitcoin can actually charge up a little bit before a new uptrend and before a new bull market. It's just a rebalancing of the market. That's what we are looking into now. And we are clearly very close to a bear market bottom. So, this is by far one of the most interesting signals I've seen in a very long time. And if you want to claim this signal for yourself, to use this indicator yourself, you can come over to description of today's YouTube video and you can join the Telegram community. In here, I just shared the exact link toward this indicator, so you can use it for yourself.

[00:06:21]Quickly show it. You have it here. You can use it on the chart and you can play around with it. And of course, you can come to your own conclusions regarding this indicator, but lately in the market, I do see a lot and a lot of signals that potentially the Bitcoin bear market bottom is super and super close. And I do share all of my insights about this indicators and signals in the Telegram community, so make sure to come over. It's completely free to join. So, just check it out. They also dropped the market letter in here of what this indicator means, so you can also read through that yourself if you are truly very interested in the indicator and do want to know a little bit more about this and for example the UTXOs and all of the other terms. So, that was it for today's video. If you did enjoy this video, make sure to subscribe to the channel. Watch you like my latest YouTube videos, then I will see you guys with you in my next video. Later.