XRP: uh oh... Did We Celebrate TOO SOON?!

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Hello, this is Matt on the Moon Lambo channel. Uh oh, folks, did we start celebrating a bit too soon? Us cocky bulls out there expecting that we will see new all-time highs and that we will actually get an alt season. Did we start celebrating too soon? Because, you know, Bitcoin got up to whatever got what what did it get up to? Uh 82,000ish.

[00:00:19]It was it was up there. XRP got up to something like a buck 55 and now everything's a little bit more on fire.

[00:00:26]Bitcoin just a hair above $74,000 as I record this. Uh XRP at $130. So uh are we in trouble here? Well, that's exactly what I'm going to address in this very latest Moonbo hot jam. But uh before going further, I do want to be clear. I do not have a financial background of any kind. I am not offering financial advice and you definitely should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or write. I'm just an enthusiast who enjoys making YouTube videos about crypto-related topics, but just as a hobby and just for fun. As I record this video, it is 10:01 p.m. Central time, Wednesday, May 27th, 2026. And yes, everything is on fire again. A market's down, it's down like 2%. But of course, when it's down like 2% every day for a number of days, then you're down a fair bit compared to $82,000 for Bitcoin and a buck 55 for XRP. I get that. Uh but folks, I I I must remind you, we are in a range. Crypto is extremely volatile.

[00:01:23]So the ranges are a lot bigger than if you had a range in the stock market, for example. I get that it it gets you a little bit more scarce scare than it would if it were a less volatile asset, but it still is by its own nature just a range. This in and of itself does not mean that something on the higher time frame, big picture, is now broken. That is not what this means. I know it scares people, but that is not what this means.

[00:01:47]And so these are we're basically hanging hang hanging around the 24-hour lows as I record this. So we'll see here. Uh but there was this post from chart analyst Bobby A who uh firmly believes that we have been going through a midcycle correction and I guess he believes like we're still in it. So and fair enough like either we're in it or we it's just concluded. We're at the tail end of it.

[00:02:07]Whatever you say, I'm in that camp also.

[00:02:10]Now Bobby A, I will note uh he's an XRP chart guy who accurately called XRP breaking out in 2024. He also is one of just the the very few analysts um who nailed um the fall of Bitcoin. He was talking about this in September. U the two guys that come to mind every time it's it's Bobby A and the blockchain backer. They both were warning, hey, this looks a little like topheavy at the moment. U the blockchain backer calls what we just went through a bare market.

[00:02:37]Bobby A uh disagrees in terms of the definition, says it's a midcycle correction. Um, I I agree with him more in terms of what the the uh the term means, but that's just a semantics argument. Credit to both of them for for calling what they called. And so just a bit ago, uh, 8:39 p.m., so a little over an hour and 20 minutes ago, he posted the following. And obviously, he's not concerned about this. He saw that was coming. He understands it's a midcycle correction. He knows that this is an extended cycle compared to anything we've ever seen. He understands the macro reasons why. And so here he simply wrote in all caps, midcycle.

[00:03:14]There's really nothing more to say.

[00:03:16]Those who are patient will be rewarded.

[00:03:18]Those who aren't will remain poor. No other way to put it. Well, there you go.

[00:03:24]That's pretty to the point.

[00:03:26]Brevity is the soul of wit. You know who said that? You know who said that? Is Bill Shakespeare. It's Bill Shakespeare.

[00:03:32]He's right, though. Quick and to the point. He's not afraid because the number went down today. Not a big deal.

[00:03:39]Uh, you know who else is not afraid of this is chart analyst Superb Bro. Um, he wrote here, Bitcoin Daily Bulls dropped the ball on the lower time frame. So, just in the short term says, now we're looking at a potential head and shoulders break that targets a retest of the broken downtrend and a fill of the lower CME gaps. We still have the 100 SMA as potential support as well as a weekly bullish cross of the uh 1020 SMA that could pull the rug on this pattern, but we don't have evidence of that yet.

[00:04:13]And if the monthly candle closes near the lows, then it increases the odds this head and shoulders plays out. I want to stress, and this is a key part, folks, I want to stress that this does not negate the flood of bottoming signals. we've seen too much damage has been done to bearish momentum for me to entertain bare targets in the 30s and 40s. So, I will pause to say uh yeah, totally in agreement there.

[00:04:42]The idea that we'd go to 30 to $40,000 Bitcoin given especially the MAC even if you set aside all the chart stuff which to me is just supplemental evidence which is useful just factoring in all the macro stuff that I've been screaming about on this channel. Uh the idea of us going to $30,000 Bitcoin is completely off the table. It does not make sense that I mean outside of what with this will always be a caveat no matter what's going on. Outside of a black swan event that happens, okay, fine. I got it.

[00:05:12]Something crazy happens. Asteroid hit the earth. Everybody's panicking. Okay, whatever. I'm just saying outside of something wacky. Uh no.

[00:05:22]And then he says, "If this pattern plays out, we're looking for a higher low. 10% of downside potential if it hits this target or 20% if all hell breaks loose and it retests the lows, which I'm not betting on, versus multiples of upside from here. I'll be selling more stocks and stacking more corn if the discount comes." So, he'll sell his stocks and buy Bitcoin. He's saying if he's given lower prices, which it's technically on the table, but it doesn't break anything big picture. That's the key takeaway.

[00:05:53]And then there was this from chart analyst psychedelic, and this is just from this morning. So highly relevant.

[00:05:58]It's perfectly relevant. And so he he actually thought that prices could go a little bit lower. So just check this out. Here's what he wrote this morning.

[00:06:06]We're about to take out the weekend lows. And of course, I'll pause and note the weekend lows were um what was it around? 74 7 I know he's talking about the target level of 74,400. I can't remember if that was what the low actually hit or if it was maybe more like 74,500.

[00:06:21]That was pretty much it though for the clo the weekly close Sunday. All right.

[00:06:25]So he says we're about to take out the weekend lows which we did. We went we've already gone a hair below that. Says uh with very bearish sentiment and bears beginning to victory lap. Yeah, I've noticed that as well. But I am very confident we hold this level on the weekly and begin to put it in foundations for a reversal very soon. What's very interesting is that Coinbase premium has been very negative for a few weeks here and we have just tagged a deeply negative level that has only hit four other times since the 2022 bottom. Each one marked a strong low. For reference, we are now at negative levels that we saw as we hit the $60,000 low in February after a sharp market puke. But today, we have reached this negative level whilst being above higher time frame structure of $74,400.

[00:07:22]Where we are right now best mirrors October 2024.

[00:07:27]Make no mistake, I am very bullish.

[00:07:30]However, if we lose $74,400 on the weekly, my energy will shift to more defensive. $74,400 needs to hold on the weekly and the market uh very much enjoys pushing things to the wire. Now, we wait and see how it plays out. Okay. So, again, he's saying the weekly, which means when we get to this coming Sunday, you know, a few days from now, as long as we're at least at $74,400 or or or higher, uh then in his terms in his from his perspective, nothing to be concerned about on the short term. So, we'll see what he says if we actually do fall below that. But um he's extremely confident, as are many of the analysts that I follow, most of the analysts that I follow, that big picture, the best of times actually still are ahead.

[00:08:21]Um here's a post from chart analyst Cleo. Uh he simply wrote, "Bitcoin game plan is the is still the same. Retest low 70s and run it back higher. Just keep stacking." Okay, now he said that yesterday and the price of Bitcoin was uh 76,436 bucks when he posted this. So he was like, "Yeah, probably gonna go lower, maybe close to $70,000, then just run it back higher." It's a range. It's just normal chart stuff. Look, read the trend lines. You can see why he's saying what he's saying if you're looking at the screen.

[00:08:50]So nothing to be afraid of. And this is a general message I'm seeing from most an all, but most analysts that I follow that this is what I'm seeing, this type of post.

[00:09:01]Uh here's a post from chart analyst crypto wizard. Uh 2023 reminder, there's a lot of talk about Bitcoin forming a bare flag, but back in 2023, Bitcoin formed an ascending channel that many believed would trigger the next leg down. It didn't. Instead, it exploded upside, be open until the market decides. Yeah, there have been like my time in crypto has been reputed with these types of examples where the bears are so confident it's going to do so and so and just know because we're actually in a bull market. And most of the time you're not in a bare market. Like most of the time you're you're trending higher, at least moving sideways, but you're always going to see a certain type of person that is way way more frequently bearish than they should be given that the market just keeps trending up. So is what it is here, folks. But all of this matters if you hold altcoins. All of this matters if you're like me and XRP is your most important individual holding or one of the most. And for me, it is my largest individual holding. That's the reason I'm tracking what's happening with Bitcoin. It's because it leads the market. So, if if it does end up tanking to the downside and all these bulls are wrong, like all these guys I just highlighted, if they're wrong, which is technically possible, people are going to be wrong from time to time. Um, that's that's going to put off when we would have a season. If it actually breaks down in the way that some of the bears are talking about, that would mean that it like for some reason the four-year cycle exists. Nobody on Earth apparently knows what the macro reasons would be, but it just still does because reasons. And then we'll see in 2030 when we get to finally have new all-time highs again. That's what the bears think. That's what the four-year cycle guys think. They don't know why it's four years, but they say it is.

[00:10:38]Therefore, it will keep being but just because reasons is the answer because they don't have a macro thesis. That's the truth.

[00:10:46]Um, here's a post from chart analyst Dom. He's comparing the Russell 2000 versus Bitcoin. And this is fascinating.

[00:10:54]And I I I do have a perspective on this.

[00:10:56]I I have an opinion. You guys tell me what you think about this. But here here's what he said.

[00:11:00]We watched this chart over the last two years. And by the way, I'll pause to note this chart is going back to 2009 to the beginning of Bitcoin's existence. He says, "We watched this chart over the last two years. Uh, three perfect patterns have repeated over the last 14 years.

[00:11:17]Russell 2000 breaks into price discovery. Bitcoin follows and prints multiples, but not this time. Bitcoin is down 60%.

[00:11:27]What's different? Well, that's interesting. And of course, it's smart that he has noticed the correlation. The Russell 2000, those are small cap stocks. Historically, uh small caps start running as there's an increased appetite uh for riskier assets as macro conditions improved and there's more money slloshing around, liquidity is better, and uh and then eventually when there's enough money slloshing around, people get to their maximum level of feeling risky and they get to the riskiest asset class on the planet, which is crypto. And then they eventually get to the riskiest part of the riskiest asset class on the planet.

[00:11:57]You get this midcaps and small caps in crypto, right? Historically, that's that's always been how it played out.

[00:12:02]And so he's asking her, well, why why is this time different? Why why isn't it happened here? Well, uh to be clear, the Russell 2000 started breaking out depending on which chart analyst you ask, December of last year. So less than half a year ago or uh or January, just depends on who you ask them what they'll consider like technically a breakout to be. Uh but but unquestionably it has broken out. So why isn't Bitcoin going?

[00:12:26]Well, maybe this this is my I got two reasons here for you. Uh maybe it's because we're in an expanded cycle. So there's been a bit of a delay based on when businesses are rolling into that.

[00:12:39]That's a primary driver. And then there was also for crypto a black swan event on October 10th. You might have seen and heard about this. Remember that? Well, yeah. that that that means like even if we were going to have a correction around then anyway, it sure as hell made it more severe. I mean that that was dire, you know, and and market makers forced to sell very I mean I talked about that extensively. I haven't need to go into it here. Uh but there were there were it was basically forced contractual selling for whichever market maker or market makers were wounded for a span of literally months and it was clearly it was consistently timed like you could literally see the selling happening on a consistent basis.

[00:13:18]um that that was mechanical. That was definitely mechanical because it started right after that and then it went as long as you would expect it to if there's a wounded market maker. So that is a factor but you know when the Russell starts taking off anyway there's historically a lag anyway whether it's three months, six months, whatever it is and it doesn't mean it has to mirror exactly that. So that would be my guess as to why we haven't seen it yet. I think that's a pretty reasonable you you guys tell me in the comments section what you think. I I still think it's coming personally. I just think that it's delayed. It's an expanded cycle. Things are taking longer. We understand why.

[00:13:51]All right.

[00:13:53]Um, here's a post from chart analysts.

[00:13:55]He says, "Cycle ends when risktaking is at the maximum. It hasn't been even close to that this time around." And he's showing altcoins up top. That's an altcoins chart. So, coins outside of the top 10. And then he has altcoin dominance down here. So, it's it's the others chart and others dominance. And he says, "Hasn't even been close at this time around." Yeah, exactly. Where is the where's the maximum risk takingaking in crypto? It didn't happen or else you would have had an alt season, right? And so he says in fact, all coins clearly rejected from the same diagonal twice.

[00:14:29]A diagonal when broken should signal the start of the leg into a new cycle we're waiting for. Okay? And so he has an opinion of like uh what constitutes a top for a midcycle and this and that.

[00:14:42]That's that's a semantics argument. But if you look at the core of what he's talking about here, the point is we haven't had it yet.

[00:14:52]It's because the market cycle's not over. That that is my argument. Uh here's a post from chart analyst Mustache. He clearly believes that as well. He's uh noting that the formation on your screen here uh which is total three. So it's the top 125 coins by market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum meaning XRP is in this chart.

[00:15:13]And this is going back to 2017. He's he he believes that this is a rising wedge.

[00:15:19]And so you are going to get one final burst here and then that will be it and then bare market. That's effectively what he is charting right now. Look at the look at the schematic over here on the left. Eventually see you finally hit a top and then and then you Well, that would make sense actually because we haven't even had the alt season yet. But I firmly believe we're going to.

[00:15:42]Nothing's broken here yet. You can see that.

[00:15:46]It just it makes no sense to believe that we're not for the first time in in history because reasons we're just not going to have we're not going to have risky behavior in the riskiest asset class. Oh, okay. Well, I don't think so because you don't if you believe that then you must not understand what causes the risky behavior. What causes the risky behavior is tons of money floating around the planet for people and businesses and institutions. When there's a lot more money floating around, people take a lot riskier bets.

[00:16:11]That's the truth.

[00:16:13]It's it's it's also the reason that um you know, even though the Russell 2000 does outperform the S&P 500 over time, there are long periods of time where it's just not the case. You can look over very long periods of time where the S&P 500 uh if you're if you're invested in that versus the Russell, you're like, "Oh, thank God. I'm I'm just in the the S&P 500, that Russell, it's just eating shit." And then you let enough time pass, you're like, "Oh." So if you have a long enough time horizon, actually the the Russell 2000 historically it is a little bit outperforming the S&P 500. So you pick your time window and you can say, "Okay, crypto is not performing."

[00:16:49]Yeah, it's only not performing until suddenly it is. Nothing's dead. This is just normal. We're just waiting for the risk to increase and then the money to make its way to crypto again. That's it.

[00:17:00]Ain't rocket science.

[00:17:02]Here's a post from Matthew High. says, "Given the setup of altcoin dominance squeezing over the past year, the golden cross in September 2026, which it pumped into uh in 2016 and 2020, and the mirror of last year, which saw crypto pump July into mid August, it's probably favorable. Altcoin dominance is set to rally this summer." Okay. Well, I don't know if that's true or not. It's not unreasonable to speculate that, but wouldn't that be something if we actually did have uh some notable rise for altcoins, whether it's the actual alt season or not, sooner rather than later. Um, here's a post from chart analyst Austin. This is kind of an interesting thing to think about. Makes people have regret in the short term, but then big picture now. He says, "Anyone else remember one year ago when a $230 XRP felt cheap?" So there it was one year ago, $2.30 per XRP, and it it felt cheap because we had already seen above $3 XRP at that point. We'd seen a new all-time high in January already, uh, 2025. So it was down to $2.30 from there. Like, oh, it's looking pretty cheap. And so, uh, I'll just say this.

[00:18:12]Do do I'll ask actually. Do you remember when 50 cents felt cheap in summer of 2018?

[00:18:19]I do. I remember that coming out of the uh the highs of $3.30 earlier that year, 2018. But then the price fell to 20 cents and then eventually suddenly, you know, at that point anyway, 50 cents looked really expensive, didn't it? Yes, I was there. I was there. I started dollar cost averaging in at 55 cents. Um once the price had broke, you know, obviously I bought in 2017, but when I got back in was when it got down to 55 cents. And so, yeah, I was like, "Oh, this looks a lot cheaper." And then I was like, "Well, don't know where the bottom is. I'll start buying." But then you get the 20 cents and it's like, "Ah, just does 50 cents. Does 50 cents still look cheap? Does it look expensive?" Uh, yeah. It looked expensive at that point.

[00:19:02]So, but but here, consider this. Whether you bought at 20 cents or 50 cents back then in 20 2018 around that era, whether you bought at 20 cents or 50 cents, you ended up with huge gains when XRP hit its all-time high in 2025 at $3.65.

[00:19:21]You still won either way. XRP was trading within a specific volatile range back in 2018, and it's trading within a specific volatile range now in 2026.

[00:19:33]That's why dollar cost averaging is the way to go because no one knows precisely what the highs and the lows will be price-wise. And I sure as hell didn't in 2018, but I got exposure at all those price points. Uh and then when it ran, holy hell, you know, that was incredible to see. And I just I don't think it's done. But it's the same concept here.

[00:19:52]Whether you're buying at $2.30 or or $1.30, it's the same thing's going to be true if you just let enough time pass. That's the point. This isn't something to be fearful of. I'll just say that. So, look, all that to say, I just I think it's very clear the best is yet ahead.

[00:20:08]This is not a time to be fearful. Even as I wrap up the video, the price is plummeting further. Uh Bitcoin down to $73,727.

[00:20:15]Uh XRP down to $129.

[00:20:18]Tons of analysts have stated, look, it's certainly plausible since we're in this particular range. You could see exactly something like this happen. Let's see where the weekly closes. I know these these moves that make you feel depressed, like, oh, it's never going to happen. That's just what markets do to people. It doesn't mean there's actually a problem. This is just normal behavior in the market. So, you can let it hit you in the fuel fields, but I don't see a point in that because it doesn't make sense. Just let enough time pass and the market will keep rising. Like, there you go. Doesn't mean that everything's a winner. There will be all sorts of coins that never make it, but um there'll be most coins, I believe. But, there will be winners out there. And those coins that are functionally useful, I think, are here to stay. So everything going to be all right, man. I'm not a financial adviser. You should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or right. That would be a very, very, very bad idea. Until next time, to the moon Lambo.