$1B Wiped: The Bitcoin ETF Crash Nobody Saw Coming!

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:21]All righty. Happy Monday. The gang is back. Matt, we missed you, buddy. How you doing? I'm great. It's good to be back. I mean, I'm not going to say I much prefer sitting in an office talking about Bitcoin for an hour with two true gentlemen, I will say. But I mean being on a boat in the Mediterranean just relaxing was was a pretty nice change of pace. So I mean happy to be back. But ah yeah the the English weather it's it's not quite what I was expecting to come back to.

[00:00:49]>> I am not jealous at all. How about you Neil? How's things?

[00:00:53]>> Yeah. No happy to be here. Happy to join you guys and uh ready to rock.

[00:00:58]>> Likewise. Thank you both for being here as always. Okay let's address the big elephant in the room here. So we've seen a massive massive ETF outflows.

[00:01:06]Interesting enough looking some data I mean $1 billion in seven days or in one week which I was not expecting to be honest. I mean we do know the ETFs are doing two step forward or one backward but that's a big number right and we might see sailor buying some in a minute but that's a separate conversation.

[00:01:23]What's interesting to highlight here is like Frank said this is the biggest outflowing ETF since the 60,000 bottom.

[00:01:30]So interesting. So are we missing something to the whales? know something we don't. I wonder how you feel about these guys, but um I was not expecting this to say the least.

[00:01:41]>> Well, >> I mean, after you.

[00:01:44]>> No, you go first.

[00:01:45]>> I was just going to say I actually don't think it's as bearish a thing as many people may may see this initially think.

[00:01:54]It sounds like a huge number, a billion dollars, but if you actually look at how the ETFs kind of move and trade, they're very very correlated to price. We had a few downwards days following 80,000 people start offloading. That's kind of to be expected. But if we look at the amount of cumulative BTC that these ETFs hold and how much in the past week they actually offloaded, it was less than about 2.5%. So in the grand scheme of things, it it's not a massive amount of Bitcoin. A billion dollars sounds a huge amount, but I mean we see sailor buying this amount, you know, on a weekly basis, it seems. So it's not something that really worries me too much. And some interesting analysis I saw recently from a good friend of mine the rational route was actually looking at the composition of these ETF holders because some people will say well the institutions are buying or selling etc. But he looked into this to kind of look at the percentage of ETF holders that are genuinely institutions. And it's around 40% of them in total. Around 40% of all the ETF holders are institutions.

[00:02:53]But if you actually look at the number of independent institutions that were accumulating or distributing Bitcoin over the past quarter, that number actually increased. So there's more institutions holding, which leads me to believe this offloading was more of the 60% almost retail ETF holders.

[00:03:10]Yeah, I would just say that if the largest outflow happened at the previous bottom, well then shouldn't we be excited that we had a large outflow now that this is also a bottom uh that we're bottoming out now? So, you know, I wouldn't read too much into this. Um, you know, you never with the ETFs, it could be retail, it could be some big institution. Uh, I would just I think it's just like noise to be honest.

[00:03:38]>> I agree. By the way, I see this as always as an opportunity if anything.

[00:03:42]So, I'm excited to see Bitcoin trending down again. But it feels like we're in this kind of no man land where people are expecting for a massive drop to come and some other people are expecting for us to break free. And I feel like we might be stuck in this range for a little bit longer. Summer is coming in.

[00:03:59]The Clarity Act supposed to be sorted out the 4th of July. I guess we'll see.

[00:04:03]But I don't know, Mata, you feel, but it looks like we might be going sideways for a little bit longer.

[00:04:09]Yeah, I mean it was great to see Bitcoin rally pretty much non-stop from mid60,000s all the way up to 80,000, but we rallied straight into the 200 daily moving average, which has historically been a pretty key level of support and resistance pretty much straight into the short-term holder realized price, which was again around $80,000, the average accumulation price or cost basis for new market participants. If you look at the technical chart, you can also see there's a big kind of support and resistance zone there where price usually flips. So, the fact that we ran up, you know, $15,000 immediately into some major resistance and they're now having a few percentage pullback and people are starting to lose their minds.

[00:04:48]I mean, this is just the way markets really move. If we look at the amount of people that actually are utilizing Bitcoin, this is the active address sentiment indicator. we can kind of gauge whether moves to the upside or the downside are really backed by sufficient network usage and we could see the price rallied exponentially almost to the upside and we didn't really see enough kind of network usage to back this move up. There was kind of a divergence between the the number of users of Bitcoin and how much the price has increased. So the fact that we had a little bit of a cool off again I think was I don't want to say to be expected because the market has a way of humbling those that think they know what's going to come next but you kind of weigh up the probabilities and a bit of a cool off seemed at least somewhat inevitable at least in my eyes. Makes sense. Neil, I know you've seen a bunch of a bunch of these bull markets and bare markets and I know you don't care as much as I do, but are you expecting like a boring summer and potentially a capitulation towards the end of the year or would you say the worst is gone and we are good to go or you don't care at all? I also give you the option.

[00:05:51]>> I'll give you a copout answer that uh I don't try to guess like short-term, you know, durations of what Bitcoin's going to do. I do think we bottomed out um at 60,000.

[00:06:04]Um you know the previous uh kind of mental models that people had in prior cycles were well we never fall below a previous all-time high. Well in 2022 we did right we went below 20,000 down to like 1516. Um and this time we did the same thing. You know the previous all-time high was 69,000. We broke below that down to like 60. So, you know, I don't see us going like too much lower. I would kind of use the 2022 lens um as okay, we kind of broke below the previous all-time high, but you know, uh kind of gathered ourselves and gained momentum back. I I just don't see some like big capitulation event.

[00:06:48]There's too many uh tailwinds coming.

[00:06:51]Obviously, you know, if there's some world event that craters all markets, fine, but nothing that uh is specific to Bitcoin where I would see us going, you know, below 60,000.

[00:07:04]>> I feel for you, Matt, because you you are sandwiched in between two absolutely generate because I also I am like Neil 100%. I think we bottomed and I I would be afraid of losing my chance of accumulating. A funny story, last week I spoken to Plan C on my show we do every Wednesday and he said he was in some spaces on X and many people were saying, "Oh, we are waiting for 50,000. We sold everything and we are just waiting to re-enter." And I think that's a super dangerous mindset. Again, no financial advice here, but I wouldn't wait for a specific price to show up because what if it doesn't, right? I mean, if it does, great. And most of them, they won't buy because they will feel, "Oh my god, I'm scared now." But what if he does it? So yeah, I I don't know how you feel, Matt, but I also think the bottom is in 100%. But hey, I could be wrong.

[00:07:55]Yeah, I mean that's kind of my viewpoint as well. I think there's over a 50% chance that 60K was the bottom. Anywhere around kind of the mid70s is good strategic dollar cost average territory for me. But I think there's two kind of elements to forming a bottom. people kind of see, you know, we hit $60,000 and expect a big V-shaped recovery where we're going to bounce and the bull market's going to resume instantly. But there's also this time based capitulation that usually plays out with bare markets where yes, we may have bottomed, but there's probably going to be a few weeks or a few months where we are just kind of chopping and consolidating, having these fake outs to the upside where people think, cool, bull market resumed, we'll back on just to see price kind of turn over a little bit. And that doesn't mean we're going to find new lows at 50, 40, $30,000.

[00:08:40]But we just need enough time for people to to genuinely just get bored and think, "Ah, you know what? I'm going to go into something else. I'm I don't think Bitcoin's truly going to recover this time." And at that point when people really start losing hope, when people start rotating into the other assets, that's really when you find the opportunities. So, I would expect some more chopping and and consolidation and boring ranging throughout kind of the 70 to $80,000 region for a little while.

[00:09:06]But yeah, any anywhere down here is a good asymmetric opportunity in my eyes.

[00:09:10]Chop solidation.

[00:09:12]>> Exactly. So yeah. No, I think so too.

[00:09:15]Plus summer, like I said earlier, is summer is coming in. People want to go on holiday. They won't trade as much. So I think it's u it's appropriate to expect something along those numbers.

[00:09:26]Also, fear and greed has been annoying to say the least. We've been basically trading or trading or staying in the average of 20 for I don't even know how many. Like we had a week of neutral which was interesting. And by the way, the price was pumping super hard. So seeing us going back at 28, it's been interesting. Some people trade this, by the way. Some people trade based on fear and greed, which I guess you could say is an indicator, but um again, back to 28. And we are trading at $77,000 as we speak. So I mean, if this is mass is not mass max fear, but if this is fear, I mean, I I'm not annoyed about it. It's a good place to be, right? 28 fear and greed at $77,000.

[00:10:09]I mean, it's not too bad. How do you feel, Neil?

[00:10:13]>> Yeah. No, if if anything, uh, if you were trading, it almost seems like a buying opportunity when you have this kind of fear in the markets. I mean, I know we've gone even lower than that with the fear before down to like four or five, but um, yeah, I I'm I'm not concerned about any of this. I think we did um uh eight twice in the last three month. Five. Yeah, five. This is the last three months, by the way. We did five, we did eight, we did eight again and eight again. So, yeah, we've gone much lower, which Yeah, thank you.

[00:10:44]>> No, the swings that used to be in the Bitcoin market were much more violent uh than they've been the past, you know, couple years. So, this is nothing compared to what it used to be.

[00:10:58]>> Yeah. You know there is a meme the roller coaster and there's people turning around. It's your first first bull market.

[00:11:05]>> It's your first Yeah. It's like first time.

[00:11:07]>> Exactly. I mean if this like you said if this is for real if 59 was the bottom which I think with a high degree of probability well that means that the correction has been one of the mildest ever because we've seen some serious numbers in the past. So I would be happy to go with that one. I mean quickly on the monthly return you can see >> and that that's where the doubt and hesitation comes from from all these people you know oh we didn't go low enough it's like why like how do you decide that it's just like mumbo jumbo small amount of data points the sample size of Bitcoin you know only being what 17 and a half years like give it a rest >> yeah and also there is the argument I don't know math how you feel about this but there is also the argument that says well we didn't go as high as much So if we would have gone to $200,000, okay, I would have expected a much stronger correction, but we've gone to $126, which from the previous top wasn't that much. So expecting a diminishing in both direction, I think it's logic logical, sorry.

[00:12:09]>> Uh yeah, 100%. I mean the the bull market kind of paints the picture of the following bare market. And that's not just for Bitcoin. I mean, if you look at commodities like gold and silver, which had these big exponential blowoff rallies to the upside, you then get these big very violent steep drawdowns in the kind of pullback we're currently experiencing. And that's just due to the fact once you see these big massive rallies and loads of new capital pouring in, new speculators, new investors, usually they're the ones that are going to capitulate pretty quickly. there's a lot of assets changing hands just because we're seeing this kind of retail FOMO and mania and yeah, usually kind of volatility to the upside leads to volatility to the downside. Whereas if you look at something like the Dow Jones, which has been pretty kind of muted in its moves to the upside and the downside for a few decades now really, you're not really getting these 100% moves to the upside, but then you know the downside's pretty muted as well. and and Bitcoin is definitely trending in that direction. Just as we move from an asset of a few billion dollars in market cap to a few trillion dollars in market cap, the amount of money coming in and going out needed to have these very violent moves just increases massively.

[00:13:15]And as we've discussed at length in previous weeks of how the ETFs are now coming in and institutions like Sailor scooping up Bitcoin really for the long term, we're just not seeing as much movement as coin. And I think that's going to continue this trend of diminishing volatility to the point where Bitcoin maybe just grinds generally to the to the up and to the right like we see in US equities.

[00:13:36]>> Yeah, I think it makes sense. Was it the stock did did the alltime high? Was it last week or the week before? I recently, right? When on the alltime high. So I mean again I guess uh it depends also on the macro. I agree. And how do you guys make about this news because apparently Iran has launched a Hormuz safe. They are expecting people to pay in Bitcoin which is super interesting. I know some people are saying oh yay Iran is charging Bitcoin that's great I mean it is great but you know the naysayers are going to say oh see only shady individuals are using Bitcoin at this point whether in fact anybody can use Bitcoin and I would argue majority of the people that use the dollars I mean are not angels either. Anyway, long story short, this was interesting because we covered it and they kind of talked about it, but now seeing it in action, it's quite interesting and the reason why they have not chosen the petro dollar, I think is pretty clear. But they could have gone with a different currency. I mean, of course, you don't want stable coin because they can be blocked. So, Bitcoin seems I guess the logic answer here.

[00:14:39]Neil, how do you feel about this?

[00:14:42]>> Yeah, go.

[00:14:42]>> Yeah. No, well, initially they did they did use a stable coin, right? And Tether like th froze it. I think that was three400 million dollars.

[00:14:49]>> Y >> um this is uh this is super bullish long term for Bitcoin. Uh even though some people are going to say things like, "Oh, see our enemies use it. Bitcoin's for enemies. Anyone could use it, right?" Um but there will be investors out there who say, "Oh, wait a minute.

[00:15:08]This can't be stopped. The US can't shut this down. I'm going to uh look more into Bitcoin." And I think long term this is going to be really bullish.

[00:15:18]>> I agree. What do you feel, Matt?

[00:15:21]>> Yeah, I I agree. I I can see how shortterm people would see this as a oh, it's just fulfilling the Bitcoin stereotype. It's just the criminal currency, but it's one of these where at some point people are going to personally experience transactions being blocked or some censorship of payment or something along those lines. And at that point, you know, it's almost like the Bitcoiners journey within the space where you get into Bitcoin and then you go through all these altcoins and shitcoins and whatever and ultimately you come back and think, ah, yeah, maybe Bitcoin was the real answer. I think we're going to have this, oh, you know, stable coins are actually better. No, no, I'm going to use, you know, this CBDC. And eventually it's going to come full circle and people are going to realize, yeah, it would actually be pretty nice to have this freedom currency that can't be blocked, can't be, you know, monitored or have censorship coming in and block transactions that, you know, one centralized party don't agree with. So I I agree with Neil that long-term I think this is actually a pretty bullish indication, even if short-term a lot of I'm assuming speculators and critics of Bitcoin are going to use this as ammunition as as to why Bitcoin's evil.

[00:16:25]>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean that they've gone on a rant not long ago because of Trump and oh that's a Trump coin and then they went in with other I mean there's always going to be someone who's going to throw some stickers to the back of the car.

[00:16:35]Anyway, if you guys have not seen it, I recommend watching the 9 minutes Scott Meler did a I don't want to say a rant.

[00:16:42]Did like a solo I think he he called it how I Bitcoin or something similar. I thought it was really interesting. It was really good. I really enjoyed it and I think many more people are going to especially on this bull run. I mean if you if you had a bit of both a bit of crypto and a bit of Bitcoin I am sure this bull run made a lot of Bitcoiners from crypto people because of I mean performance alone right so I think we're going to keep seeing stuff like this and of course the Iranian I think it's called real has seen some better days like any other by the way fiat currency is not just real in Iran is any currencies measuring bitcoin yeah they had better days and I think the worst has to for fiat currency in general because I don't think 126 was the top.

[00:17:27]So it's going to be interesting there to say the least. And then we said like we were mentioning earlier interest is low.

[00:17:34]I mean even though we see some sort of a retail somewhat involved still if you look into Bitcoin search terms worldwide you can see we are below bare market. So I mean I guess Matt you can see it. you can see it. And also, you Neil, with your massive Twitter account, people seem to be less engaged these days. So, I wonder if they're going to come back.

[00:17:57]I don't know. I guess time will tell.

[00:18:00]I think it's uh I mean again something we've discussed a lot but the environment around Bitcoin has definitely changed to the point where people would look to data like this and it's really uh annoying for for people in the space like us guys who you know try and put content out and and you know there's definitely not as much optimism in the space and there's not as much interaction etc. But if you look to the new participants within Bitcoin, I don't think it really matters that there's not a substantial amount of retail really coming in because we're seeing people like Sailor, we're seeing ETF buyers buy such substantial amounts of Bitcoin. I mean, in general, I know we've had a week of outflows, but in general, they are buying for the long term. And if we look at assets like gold and silver, which are driven almost entirely by institutional buyers, and you know, very, very few retail participants are really moving the needle on gold. You know, in the past two years, its market cap increased by $20 trillion. That just shows that Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need millions of new retail buyers coming in every single month to really drive adoption and drive utility and and value proposition when the institutions have kind of taken over the space. So, it would be nice to see more people coming into Bitcoin and using it and realizing it, but it's cyclical just as price. You know, we're at a bottom right now, not just in retail interest, but kind of in price action as well. And and those two kind of go hand in hand. I'm sure at some point when we break new all-time highs, there's going to be new headlines. There's going to be celebrities endorsing it and going on Super Bowl ads talking about how amazing Bitcoin or Coinbase or whatever company is. And then at that point, we'll get the retail FOMO back in.

[00:19:33]>> Yeah, I agree. How do you think, Neil? I mean, what what needs to happen for retail to be interested? Do you think a new alltime high or maybe like even a simple $100,000 price? Maybe.

[00:19:45]>> Uh it's it's it's new alltime high.

[00:19:47]Maybe 100,000. But we do have our normal breaking news coming in. Uh >> oh.

[00:19:52]>> Uh Michael Sailor Strategy just bought another 24,869 Bitcoin. So $2 billion worth of Bitcoin.

[00:20:03]Average price about $81,000 per Bitcoin.

[00:20:07]>> Damn.

[00:20:07]>> I do like his timing. He's always pretty terrible at at buying. It's always like the local peak, but I mean immediately that's double the ETF outflows that we saw last week in one strategy purchase.

[00:20:18]So that's why again I don't think it's like the biggest thing that we're seeing the ETFs offloading because other buyers are stepping in. I just want to >> heal right away.

[00:20:27]>> Yeah. He talked um on an interview last week about how they buy um and basically they as soon as with the STRC as soon as they get the money they buy within the next hour. So they're not waiting at all. They're not trying to time the market. And it's the same same thing with like MSTR when it was trading at a premium. as soon as it hit certain levels, they would sell and, you know, buy Bitcoin, you know, sell the shares, buy Bitcoin or issue more shares.

[00:20:58]>> Wow.

[00:20:58]>> So, there's no there's no like timing going on uh other than Oh, now we have more cash. We're going to buy more Bitcoin.

[00:21:06]>> I just want $100 because on Friday, I I bet I had a bet on my with a friend of mine. I said, I I I I gamble whatever.

[00:21:14]He said $100. The sailor's going to buy more than 22,000.

[00:21:18]So that's it. Another DCA. Guys, gamble with your friends. I mean, no, don't do that. But uh I was expecting one because Stretch was uh Yeah, was pulling. So, wow. Yeah, like you said, Matt, twice the amount of ETF in one week with one purchase. This is bananas. Bananas.

[00:21:39]Wow. Unbelievable. By the way, fun fact, I I told you guys I didn't know that, but um 80% of Stretch is held by retail investor. Uh maybe it was just me being naive, but I don't know, Matt, if you had that in mind, but I was surprised when I saw I I was expecting a big portion, but not 80%.

[00:21:59]>> I am probably the most unpopular guy in most conferences, especially when there's MSTI guys around. in my kind of long-term outlook on STRC. I think it's definitely got some bullish influence on price action right now, but looking at the maths behind it, I'm unsure of how STRC sustains itself indefinitely. And I think a lot of institutions who are looking into the maths might have some dubious doubts. I mean he sailor himself even said very recently that he kind of 18 on his on his stance of never sell your Bitcoin to well we may sell if it's advantageous but we'll always buy a little bit more if STRC grows and fulfills the potential that Sailor thinks it might and and becomes a multi- trillion dollar asset if its market cap exceeds that of MSTR and they have to sell MSTR to fund STRC dividends and the MSTR NAV goes beneath one, they can't really fund those dividends unless they sell Bitcoin, which is kind of against the initial thesis of what strategy was all about. So, I kind of anticipated it would be mainly retail, but I didn't think it would be as high as 80%. But I genuinely think that percentage is going to continue climbing to the upside, which I know is a very very unpopular opinion and viewpoint to have because right now this is like the golden goose egg of the entire Bitcoin space and community that SDRC is the best thing ever. But I have my doubts long term.

[00:23:30]>> I am recording with Adam Livingstone and Rajat Sony. I think it's next Friday or at the end of the month. And I'm super excited because I have I don't have much knowledge when it comes to I mean I know the basic I guess you know the 11.5 a year they pay and and what strategy is doing with MSTR and Stretch. But I'm going to deep dive into into with them which they have extensive knowledge on on the matter because I yeah I I don't know. I think it's interesting what Sailor is doing. Kind of reminds me of what DeFi wanted to do with crypto on Bitcoin. So I don't know Neil how you feel about this but um it's fascinating how much they are acquiring.

[00:24:10]It's worrisome not even for strategy itself but and I'm sure there is a there is a plan when it comes to custody but I know that most of the ETFs are on Coinbase and I know strategy uses also some sort of Coinbase form. So yeah, there is a there is a risk of I don't want to say centralization, but basically it looks like Coinbase is holding most of the companies on their shoulder and that kind of worries me a little bit.

[00:24:39]>> Well, in terms of Micro Strategies, Bitcoin, I think they use three different custodians. Um, I think Fidelity, Anchorage, and Coinbase. Uh, regardless, what do I how do I feel about STRC in general and what's going on?

[00:24:55]Um, well, if you're going to hold something for five years, would you want to hold STRC or or Bitcoin? I think Michael Sailor would tell you to hold Bitcoin.

[00:25:06]Um, if you know, if if you if that was the question, I think he has said that >> if you're going to hold something long term, hold Bitcoin. Um, because you know, STRC is reliant on Bitcoin going up over time. So, it's kind of circular. Maybe in a shortterm window, few months, you want to throw off some extra cash, maybe it makes sense to hold STRC. Uh, but even, you know, if you bought, if you were lucky enough to buy what l look to be the bottom 60,000, you know, you'd be up what, 30% right now in Bitcoin. It would take you almost three years to get that in STRC.

[00:25:53]Um, again, that assumes you're able to like time the bottom uh of the Bitcoin price, which obviously I don't know, it's not something that is easy or most people can do. Um, >> fair enough.

[00:26:06]>> Yeah. I I don't know how this all plays out. It's kind of makes me a little uneasy. the same way you were talking about like all the past crypto stuff. It is a little different in the sense that um it's super transparent.

[00:26:23]The leverage ratio is very low. Um I guess we'll see what happens. Uh in the end, if you just hold Bitcoin in self-custody, you'll be able to ride out any potential uh catastrophe that may happen.

[00:26:42]But I I don't know. I don't know.

[00:26:44]>> Yeah, fair enough. Also, I feel like it's kind of part of the gig, right? So, in the beginning, everything started off with, you know, a bunch of people holding self custody, but then I mean, not imagining that the space is going to grow and is going to offer different services and ways of custody and all that kind of stuff. I think it's part of the gig. I mean, if and I know it sounds controversial, but that's how I feel.

[00:27:06]Like if Bitcoin would have stayed with the ethos of oh sell custody only in your hardware wallet and you know into a safe and fu money we would not be at $70,000. No chance. We would have stayed back at whatever I don't know 500 bucks maybe. So it it comes with we we can't experience the price appreciation and then it's we where is the trade-off?

[00:27:30]What are we exchanging? Right? So I I feel like it's okay to see institutions coming in and there's going to be people they and I know plenty but we discussed it off camera before the live show began like there are many people they actually use Bitcoin to make more fiat and hey if that's your plan do whatever you want like not everyone who has Bitcoin is like us right which we believe into the asset we like the self custody element aspect of it there are some speculators even miners themselves like Mara has been selling I think 1.5 million um lately even though they have massive reserves they are going into AI. So some of the miners they just mine for dollars, right? So the old space I think comes with that kind of tag and some people want to make more quote unquote fiat. So interesting there. I had your well the ill comes from meme before which I thought it was hilarious. So I don't know if you want to if you want to talk about that but yeah there is also that element is like interesting. Very interesting. I think what you're I think what you're going to see is something that happens more like every 10 or 20 years where people will get comfortable in using custodians.

[00:28:45]There'll be some catastrophe. You'll have a shift to self-custody and then people will forget after 10 or 20 years and they'll be I'm going back into custody again. and you'll have this kind of like cycle that happens over and over again. Uh I don't that that's like decades long. So I think now you know the first decade and a half of Bitcoin was you should self-custody. It was constantly in your face of things blowing up. Now we have, you know, Wall Street, the more quote unquote trusted entities. Um but eventually something will blow up there or something will happen. Um and that could be 10 years from now, 15 years from now and then people will revert back to the self-custody.

[00:29:39]Um so yeah, I'm not going to tell anyone what to do, but if you're always in self-custody, you never have anything to worry about. You never have to time anything. Uh so yeah, that that's where I'd leave it. It's like when you see a little child wanting to reach out for the fire and you say, "Don't touch the fire." And they go, "Yeah, but it looks fun." Don't touch the fire. Well, the only way for them to learn how not to touch the fire, guess what? It's touching the bloody candle. So, at the end of the day, like you said, some lessons you cannot pass them. You have to put your face in the mud. I mean, at least that's and I' I've been I mean, I'm sure all three of us, we've gone through some to a degree. So, it makes sense. You can just point and say, "Hey, if you do this, likely you get slapped in the face, but hey, who am I to tell you what to do? Please touch the candle." I don't know if you guys agree.

[00:30:30]>> Neil, what's your uh 100%? Some things you can't teach. They have to be learned and they have to be learned the hard way, unfortunately. And markets seem to be kind of like, at least in my opinion, one of the most kind of dictionary definition places where hard lessons really have to be learned.

[00:30:49]I mean, look at 2008. Like, no one could have seen the bank fa no one expected the bank failures to well, maybe a few people to the level that they were where you'd have these well-known names go under, right? Like banks just disappeared uh within days. Um, but people are kind of comfortable now with the banks again until something happens again. So, you know, buy or beware if you're going to put your Bitcoin in custody.

[00:31:20]>> Yeah. What is the saying? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So, I mean, yeah, look at Cyprus 2010. I don't think I will ever forget what forgot what happened over there.

[00:31:32]Like, that was insane. And yet, everything is normal, right, again. So, yeah, super well said. Quinton posted something nice. Shout out to Quinton, a good friend. And he posted this. He said only 0.29% of the global population can ever own one full Bitcoin. And you can see the two blue people down there in the corner, which is fascinating. Again, a reminder of this thing.

[00:31:56]Yeah, it's limited. Okay. There is always a tradeable portion on the market, but at some point when the music is going to stop, you want to have a chair to sit on, right? I know you have some uh some beautiful charts. Matt, do you want me to switch on your screen?

[00:32:11]>> Yeah, sure. So, I guess this is kind of a slight change of pace going on to more kind of price kind of predictions, I guess. And like we said, I I think trying to predict exactly what's going to happen next is a bit of a a fool's errand. I just think it's almost impossible to do accurately long term.

[00:32:31]But what I do think you can do is kind of look at many different pieces, almost like a jigsaw puzzle, and gain kind of a slightly higher probabilistic viewpoint.

[00:32:40]So, kind of looking into the the recent sell-off that we've had, which I'm already seeing on social media people calling for considerably lower prices and oh god, who could have seen this coming, etc. We've seen recently a new Fed chair coming in. We've seen some CPI prints, some PPI prints, considerably higher than many were expecting. Markets are now pricing in rate hikes rather than rate cuts, which is always a bit of a headwind in terms of price appreciation for more risk and speculative assets. And recently with all this uncertainty, we've seen the US dollar strength index or the DXY start rallying to the upside. Now, the US dollar strength index and Bitcoin typically have a more inverse correlation. So, if the US dollar is gaining strength, Bitcoin is usually struggling. So what we can see on this chart is if we look on a year-on-year basis rather than just the the flat DXY chart. If we look at the rate of acceleration or deceleration in its strength, it gives a a little bit of a better viewpoint on this. And then just give it about a 100 day offset to allow kind of this trickle down economics to really come into effect. We can see for the past few years it's almost mirrored the Bitcoin price action and and forecasted it almost 3 months in advance almost one. Now, this topped out on I think May the 13th. And to the day, it was the the highest close we had in the Bitcoin price action. And again, this is pointing towards around four more weeks of some chopping and consolidating and, you know, some less than ideal price action, we'll say. But recently as well, this has started moving to the upside once again. So, it it wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of a summer lull as I know many are anticipating. But again, people kind of expecting Bitcoin to have this ultimate capitulation event in October down to $475,000.

[00:34:25]Exactly. Because that's where X, Y, and Zed moving average are. As Neil said earlier, it's it's too small a sample size to rely exclusively on what's happened in the past because really we've only had, you know, three cycles which have kind of played out in the traditional 4-year basis. And I just think if you look at the things that are really moving the market, the the supply and demand economics, the kind of macro environment, these paint a much more accurate picture than you know what calendar month we're in or where the moon is or whatever trading philosophy you have. So, it's just something that I've been watching recently and and obviously now we've seen a little bit of a retracement. is kind of coming to fruition a little bit. But this doesn't kind of break the macro outlook in in my mind and I'm sure your guys' eyes that there's only really one destination for Bitcoin and that is considerably higher in the not too distant future.

[00:35:14]>> How do you guys feel about I mean do you think people are bearish or bullish?

[00:35:16]Because I had a chat with Benjamin video uh when I uploaded Friday. I think I pushed it up on Friday and in the comments everyone was saying, "Oh, everyone is so bullish." And I'm like, "I don't think so. I looking my X fee. I if anything I I would say everyone expects us to correct. I don't know how you how you guys feel. Neil, I don't know how is your fee, but I only see bearish stuff.

[00:35:40]>> I think it just depends on your algorithm and who you follow maybe.

[00:35:44]>> Um I think the crypto people are more bearish uh than a lot of the Bitcoin only people. That's just my read on the situation, but I don't know. Again, we kind of talked about this earlier. I think uh I think we bottomed and uh whatever happens isn't going to change what I do. So, >> fair enough. See, >> one thing I I found at the Bitcoin conference is people who are like fully into Bitcoin, like us three guys, people that are doing presentations, just the general people you bump into and have a chat with, they're all incredibly bullish long term. I think those that have been in the space for long enough and are willing to go to a Bitcoin conference during less than ideal price action conditions, they all have kind of this similar thesis of, yeah, chops inevitable, but really there's there's only one kind of way that Bitcoin is going to go and it's, you know, eating up more and more of the global wealth and a lot of the speculators, a lot of the retail, more so the ones who are commenting on YouTube videos, the ones that are tweeting, it's a complete 180, a complete contrast in view that, you know, Bitcoin is destined to go considerably lower and are really bearish. From from my comment section, it's almost like a 50/50 divide. But looking at something like the fear and greed index again, we can see people are getting fearful. People are getting, you know, a little bit bearish and more pessimistic, which I mean, even if you compare that to last week when we were above $80,000, and people are already talking about 90K or 100K or higher, you know, price really dictates sentiment and that shifts so quickly, probably more so in Bitcoin than in any other space.

[00:37:16]>> Yeah, I agree. Plus, I mean, sometimes I forget how crypto Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it, how a B it's like a B it's like a his own because I don't want to say bubble but there's not many of us. It feels like whenever you are on X and you're looking for informations or I don't know videos or content or posts. It feels like everybody's talking about I mean at least that's how I perceive it. But when you just literally go outside in the real world people are like what is Bitcoin still a thing? I mean here in Dubai for example I think I read the other day almost 80% of the citizen are invest in crypto right and of that 80% I would imagine a portion has bitcoin maybe the majority have crypto I don't know how split but it was a high percentage compared to maybe somewhere in Europe or I mean the US probably higher but I was surprised to say wow almost 80% of people have crypto in Dubai that's interesting but then some of them they just forgot. Maybe they bought maybe they both in 2020 or whatever when the top was in and they kind of forgot they have I don't even know how or what kind of custody. But when you just filter it down to Bitcoin like like you said Matt Astri full custody you know believing long-term it's just a small percentage of the overall like I've not seen as many Caspot as much lately which is I guess a good thing because whenever Bitcoin was flying over 100,000 it was all XRP and Caspot on my on my for you thing. So, that's that's a good sign. But, um, I'm sure they'll be back at some point. Do you have any any t-shirts, Neil, on the matter, about about this kind of stuff?

[00:39:01]By the way, guys, we still have the 20% off. So, if you wish to buy some merch, use the link down below and use catch up with Bitcoin to get 20 off. So, you should have some some some t-shirts on.

[00:39:12]>> We We have a few shirts. One says, "Thou shalt not shitcoin on it." That's a good one. That's one of our bests sellers, but it's mostly positive Bitcoin stuff.

[00:39:22]Uh we don't really have any we don't have a lot of crypto, even anti- crypto stuff. It's just positive Bitcoin. So, >> fair enough.

[00:39:30]>> Yeah, go check it out.

[00:39:31]>> Yeah, indeed. I need to order a couple of C caps. I've seen you have some good ones with the B. I like the ones. Um they don't have anything on the back and you have those.

[00:39:40]>> How's the Yeah. How's the shipping to Dubai right now getting better?

[00:39:44]>> Uh I guess. Yeah. I mean, yeah, you can.

[00:39:46]Are they called dead hats? Damn, I'm looking at dead hats. Wow.

[00:39:50]>> No, I think you you're talking about the flex the flex fit.

[00:39:53]>> Ah, the flexit >> touch of wool. I mean, not bad being a dad is awesome. But yeah, this is the one I was looking earlier because the one I have here that doesn't have a there's nothing on the back and I I like those. They're really comfy and I only wear a hat because of the headphones.

[00:40:08]They're so big that it becomes more comfortable. So, yeah, these are the ones. They are nice. Yeah, we'll we'll get you some stuff. And if you want something, Matt, we'll we'll get you something, too.

[00:40:20]>> Sounds good.

[00:40:20]>> 100%. Anything free. Any any hat that I get at a conference, any t-shirt, 100% I'm repping it. I I just I'm I'm a North Englishman. Any any free stuff, like it's it's it's in my wardrobe.

[00:40:32]>> We should We should make a catch up with Bitcoin line, man. Come on. One for the show.

[00:40:38]>> Yeah, we can make one.

[00:40:40]>> That'll be fun. But guys, I know there is quite a few of you watching. So if you have any questions, please put them in the chat because uh we also have a Q&A segment in the end. So if you if there's anything you would like to know, please ask. As always, that's the best part. You can interact with us as opposed to re-watching the stream later on. Um I don't know. I mean, I I feel I I feel a bit confused at the moment. Like I said in the beginning, I mean, long term, who cares? But I I was expecting a little bit of a maybe more consistent kind of 80,000 whether it finished quick. And I think many are enjoying this. Oh, we're going down or we going up or we going down because at the end of the day the market makes the most of both, right? Bull and bears. So that makes sense. But um yeah, what do you have there? The the cycles. Let me go on your screen.

[00:41:32]>> Yeah. So I I mean we kind of discussed it previously but looking at if the bull market kind of paints the picture of the following bare market. This is the cycle master chart we have on Bitcoin magazine pro. So this takes into account lots of onchain valuation methods and kind of aggregates them all into one to give kind of a rough estimate of overvalued or where cycle lows could be etc. And we can see in every single cycle we bottomed out pretty much exactly on the cycle lows topped out pretty much exactly at the upper overvalued levels.

[00:42:02]But in this most recent cycle, we didn't quite reach the highs of this overvalued level. But we did kind of brush up against this aggressively valued line on almost three separate occasions. But because we didn't get this kind of overextension to the upside, we might not get this overextension to the downside and might only reach this kind of undervalued level, which is currently around $73,000.

[00:42:24]Now, that's not to say cycle lows, which is around 48K, isn't out of the question. But as we kind of get this ping-ponging between the upper and lower line, it's kind of generally just going to start contracting in this volatility that we've seen throughout the history of Bitcoin isn't going to be quite as severe. So, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest as Bitcoin progressive in a few more h havingings or decades time if we really just kind of oscillated around this fair market value level, which if I just zoom in, is currently around $111,000. So around these levels is where I'm watching at the minute. As I said, anywhere around the mid70s around this undervalued level in my mind is a great area to be strategically accumulating Bitcoin. But again, if we look to the upside of the next cycle, we probably won't reach these $300,000 highs. I mean, I'd love to be proven wrong on that, but we're kind of just having these more muted and muted moves in Bitcoin, which is more healthy and more sustainable, even if it's not quite as exciting. But right now, that aggressively valued line is they're around $180,000. So somewhere up there, maybe a target for the next cycle, but we're we're thinking way in the future here. We need to take it, you know, one day, one week at a time. And right now, we are kind of carving out this bottoming range for Bitcoin around this undervalued level. So this is what I've been watching recently and probably what I'm going to continue to keep an eye on over the coming weeks. Do you know the the monk uh what was the the quote?

[00:43:44]before enlightenment, chopping wood and drinking tea or something. And then after enlightenment, chopping wood and drinking tea or something along those lines. So that's how I feel about the DCA. By the way, we had a comment there.

[00:43:55]Exactly. DCA, man. That's that's it. Who cares? I mean, that's the most difficult part is to show up when you don't want to show up. It's like going to the gym.

[00:44:03]The day they count are the days you go, "Ah, I really don't want to go." So emotions are going to convince you to do something else. But showing up consistently is the best way. Got another one. Got to catch up with what's happening. Mixed feeling sad about to see down. But again, getting close to my goal is is good. I mean, I guess seeing corrections, I know it could be draining emotionally, especially when you go sideways consistently for so long. But if your goal is to DCA consistently, like Neil said in the beginning, I couldn't agree more. Who cares? Is this just a bump in the road, right? So it's great to to go into data analyze things but it's not going to impact our strategy. Our strategy remains the same.

[00:44:46]It's just it's just it's not even the cherry on the cake because uh I don't give I don't even give it the cherry.

[00:44:52]It's just like it's just the enjoyment of eating the cake but the cake is there right? So and I know it's difficult but maybe we should do a weekly a weekly segment where we remind people to buy no matter what. I mean I we can't say it because it's financial advice but you just say hey we are buying weekly and then it's up to you. Sorry Mark I didn't mean to cut you off.

[00:45:14]>> No no no I was just going to say I mean clearly people are doing this. If we look at the amount of addresses holding at least 1 million Satoshi's be becoming a Satoshi millionaire it's just reached an all-time high like literally in the past few days. So even though we're talking about retail not really being as involved and a more pessimistic and bearish kind of vibe around the entire community, clearly people are still blind dollar cost averaging into the market. They're still accumulating Bitcoin regardless of the short-term sentiment and the short-term kind of price action that we're seeing. People are just keeping calm and dollar cost averaging in which I think is for for a majority of people the best way to do it. And clearly we can see in the numbers that this is still happening.

[00:45:56]After during the most recent bull market, we saw this massively decline as people started selling Bitcoin, maybe going to ETFs, maybe losing hope as they saw Bitcoin kind of stagnating and chopping as assets like gold and silver going exponential. But as we've had this draw down, you know, people are seizing the opportunity, which is great to see.

[00:46:14]>> Yeah, fair enough. Awesome guys. Thank you. Thank you for for all of you guys watching. Thank you both obviously for being here. Mondays are awesome. they're becoming my favorite days. So incredible. I will obviously put all the details in the link down below. So go and check out Matt and Neil's channel as much as the X account. So yeah, Neil.

[00:46:32]Matt, thank you.

[00:46:34]>> Thanks for having us.

[00:46:35]>> Thank you very much. Always a pleasure.

[00:46:37]>> Likewise. We see you guys next Monday.

[00:46:40]Cheers.