USA in PANIC at CANADA TRADE DISASTER: Carney Holds Trillion-Dollar Cards Before CUSMA Starts

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]there are little more than 30 days until the CUSMA review begins and the United States is about to discover something shocking Canada is not walking into these negotiations empty handed Canada is walking in with cards that Trump cannot match Mark Carney is holding cards worth hundreds of billions of dollars and he hasn't put a single one on the table yet so what is in that card hand well there are five specific cards energy critical minerals pension capital a 27 billion dollar defense commitment and the American political calendar Washington needs the first four and Trump cannot fully control the fifth so in a negotiation the cards held can be more powerful than the cards played let's set the table quickly CUSMA the Canada US Mexico agreement was written with a built in review mechanism both sides agreed to it all sides agreed to it actually all sides knew this moment was coming the difference between this review and every previous Canada US negotiation is one thing Canada has spent the last two years quietly building real alternatives but let's be honest Canada is suddenly not bigger than the United States Roughly three quarters of Canadian merchandise exports still go to the US so nobody's going to pretend that we can just shrug everything off and walk away tomorrow morning but dependency is not the same thing as helplessness sure Canada has exposure to the United States yes but the United States also has exposure to Canada and after months of Trump acting as if every negotiation is just him announcing terms and everyone else nodding along Canada's position is stronger than Washington wants to admit let's start with Energy Canada produces around five and a half million barrels of oil every single day the American refinery system was engineered specifically to process Canadian heavy crude you cannot substitute it in a short notice and you cannot replace it cheaply and remember when Canada's energy card actually changed well it was when the Trans Mountain expansion opened for years Canada had plenty of oil but not enough ways to sell it to buyers beyond the United States that gave Washington an advantage if your biggest customer knows that they are your easiest customer they tend to act like it and take advantage of it the Trans Mountain pipeline changed that math it gave Canada more access to the Pacific tidewaters which means more access to Asian buyers when Seoul and Tokyo are competing for the same Canadian oil as Ohio while the seller's position in any negotiation shifts completely and that helps explain why Carney rejected the idea that energy and critical minerals are leverage he's not saying Canada has no power he's saying that Canada is not threatening to cut off trade like a reckless actor there's a difference between having options and acting like a maniac with a light switch sounds like someone familiar Trump Carney's message is not do what we want or we shut off the valve his message is Canada is building options and that's way smarter because once you threaten something the other side prepares for it but when you quietly build alternatives the other side has to keep asking how much longer will you need them as much as you used to hmm then there are the critical minerals which you know sounds dry until you realize that they're the ingredients for the future economy and the modern military you got batteries aircraft radar satellites weapon systems all of that depends on these materials NATO has identified 12 defense critical raw minerals and Canada deposits have all 12 with production or refining capacity for 10 of them The United States says it wants less dependence on China well if Washington wants secure supply chains Canada is central to making that happen and Ottawa is not offering a passive extraction arrangement either huh the Canadian position is a full partnership we're talking refining processing manufacturing and defense related production all happening in Canada with Canadian workers and Canadian oversight the supply chain stays here or there's no supply chain Washington either accepts those terms or stays dependent on Beijing those are the realistic options on the table for the US so the third card is Canadian pension capital Canada's major pension funds control trillions in assets across the system and they invest around the world in infrastructure real estate energy transportation utilities data centers ports and power grids and a lot of that money has gone to the United States so that gives Canada quiet influence American states need infrastructure American projects need financing American communities want jobs pension fund managers are paid to make 30 year bets when American trade policy becomes erratic like it is now when a single true social post could move markets well those 30 year forecasts for US assets get way harder to make and that's when meetings stop getting booked in New York and they start getting booked in London Frankfurt and Singapore and that's where the power of capital comes in cause it usually doesn't just storm out of the room it moves elsewhere for Canadians this matters because pension funds are not political toys they are retirement money their job is to protect long term returns not subsidize this crazy chaos we're going through and then of course there's the F35 contract Canada's fighter jet purchase is worth roughly $27 billion for years Washington assumed that this was just a closed file oh Lucky Martin American jets American jobs American defense integration with no real alternative you gotta take it well Prime Minister Carter put that contract under formal review the Swedish Gripen which is built by Saab is officially on the table as an alternative this is the same company that just beat Boeing on the NATO surveillance aircraft contract it's a very credible option now so when Canada signals it may redirect $27 billion away from the American defense industry well Washington receives a specific message trust between these two countries is conditional and trust has a price yeah the review itself is in the communication you don't formally reassess a 27 billion dollar commitment unless the message behind it is real Carney doesn't need to cancel the contract the uncertainty of whether he might is doing all the work here so if the United States wants allies to buy American defense equipment then the United States has to behave like a reliable defense partner it can't pressure Canada threaten terror question the relationship and still assume that every major contract will automatically land in their lap and then there's the card that Trump cannot fully control American voters tariffs may sound tough at a rally but they become less impressive when households realize that they're paying for them because tariffs add cost to groceries gas cars building materials and everyday goods and when that happens voters start to notice so that is the midterm elections problem Republicans may support Trump loudly in public but many of them know what happens when economic pain becomes local a tariff that sounds strong on stage can look very different at a kitchen table when you've lost your job hmm yeah now Canada can't control American elections but Canada can understand the calendar Washington is negotiating under pressure too Canada has a little more than 30 days until the CUSMA review begins but Republicans are heading toward November with Terry's becoming a real political liability so here's the thing that makes this negotiating position genuinely formidable right now none of these cards have actually been played yet the energy hasn't been redirected to Asia the mineral supply chain hasn't been withheld the pension capital is still invested in the United States and the F35 review is still open a card held forces the other side to plan for every possible outcome at the same time the moment you put it down the other side adjust quickly while it stays in the hand Washington has to account for all four scenarios simultaneously and that costs them focus flexibility and political bandwidth that they don't really have to spare right now and that's why PM Carney's restraint matters some people want him to slam every card on the table right now all at once well it would feel satisfying for about 10 minutes but negotiations aren't about producing a good clip or a viral reel they are about shaping the choices available on the other side Prime Minister Carney is doing something that Trump doesn't like he's making Canada harder to read not chaotic not emotional just disciplined Trump likes opponents who react quickly and publicly because then he can turn the reaction into theater well Kerry is doing the exact opposite he's keeping the room boring enough to be strategic and boring can be very effective as we've seen a calm country with options is more dangerous in a negotiation than a loud country with none listen the goal is not to blow up the relationship with the US the goal though is to stop Washington from assuming that Canada will accept anything just to keep the relationship comfortable and that's the big shift the CUSMA review matters because this is not just about paperwork or pieces of paper that get signed the three countries can extend the agreement for another 16 years or they can fall into annual reviews that keep uncertainty hanging over North America which means July 1st is not the cliff it's the moment where everyone decides whether they want stability or years of just arguing about it back and forth so our question is not whether Canada has leverage because clearly we do the question is how much Carney needs to use and how much he can keep in reserve because Canada is not powerless here but we can't be reckless either it's sitting at the table with real cards real limits and a prime minister who seems to understand that the point of leverage is not to brag about it yep with only a small time left Carney does not need to play every card he needs to make sure that Trump understands they're there Canada holds the cards the question is how many will Prime Minister Carney need to play to win so that's a lot of information let us know what you think are all these cards gonna come into play in the next 30 or so days or does he hold more of them close to his chest let us know in the comments below and share this hype it like it and subscribe if you aren't already there thanks for watching everybody and we'll see you tomorrow Ciao for now