Monad 💀 Crisis: What’s Next?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-03

[00:00:00]Now, isn't it interesting how a random algorithmic decision to suspend Monet's Twitter account leads to the price going down? The situation still hasn't been rectified and one of the co-founders of Monet gives his take. The Monet account was suspended without warning. I have to assume due to a mistake. We weren't doing anything abnormal using the API, etc. We've reached out to the X support via a variety of channels and we would expect the account to be back soon. That was 16 hours ago. That's then how the market reacted. And the big question is, is this potential opportunity? Hello, my name is Gad. I've been in crypto for the last 8 years. I started this channel here 5 years ago. And 3 years ago, I hit my first million. I did this via active trading. So, I outperformed buying and holding Bitcoin on average by 2% per month. That's then how that looks like over time. And that's then what happens when there are additional contributions to the portfolio over time. In this video, I want to share what kind of data points I look at in order to beat the market. We're going to discuss Monet.

[00:01:04]The account suspension is all over the news. But on the long-term Monet chart, the price decline doesn't seem to be that much out of the ordinary, just part of regular volatility. This here is Monet relative to the others market cap.

[00:01:17]So now we look at how much is Monet outperforming or underperforming the rest of the altcoin market over time. We had a very nice outperformance from the end of January of this year until the middle of April of this year 134%. But since then the asset is struggling and we seem to be in a somewhat constant trading range. The dotted line here that's the average ratio of the Monet price to the altcoin market cap. Here's a similar chart. This is now Monet relative to Bitcoin. Again, we seem to be in a trading range. The tops and the bottoms align quite nicely. Now, why does Monet have such a hard time outperforming the rest of the market?

[00:01:56]Why are we trading in that range? I think at least part of the answer is tokconomics. It's how there's more and more tokens hitting the market. We will get a major unlock in November of this year when the team and the investors get the ability to sell more tokens. They get their vesting unlocks. And so it's always speculation about demand versus supply. We do know that the supply will grow over time. But will the demand grow at a faster rate? Only if it grows faster than the supply only then Monet can outperform the rest of the market.

[00:02:28]Now I'm talking about outperformance not in terms of US dollars because if in general the crypto market is going up then of course Monet goes up with it.

[00:02:35]But we are talking about how much do we get that additional risk compensated.

[00:02:41]This here is the total value locked or the capital that's on the Monet chain over time. The trend looks fine as in there is some growth. But once we measure the TVL in Monet, there was zero growth in the last 5 months and that's not good when the supply grows over time. Here's the number of daily transactions on the Monet chain over time. Again, no growth. Here is the number of active accounts over time.

[00:03:07]After the initial hype, very little to no growth. Now, the price doesn't have to be always onetoone correlated with the adoption of the technology and its tokconomics, but long-term those two factors tend to make a difference. The market cap of Monet is currently at 343 million, which is not very high. When we take the parallel process Ethereum virtual machine chains as a reference point, there's only say as the real competitor and the two are fighting for the first spot. In the very short term, it's not the spot trading volume that makes the Monet price. Over here, we only had 14 million in the last 24 hours. It's really the perpetual futures. Here we had roughly double the trading volume. The funding rate is relatively balanced. So, there is the same amount of longs versus shorts. The market does not have a strong opinion on where Monet is going from here. The open interest though, so the amount of bets on the Monet price is still relatively high and that's not good because when the amount of bets is coming down, when open interest shrinks, this tends to also be selling pressure for the spot market because there are hedging activities. As there is more speculation on an asset, the spot price tends to follow. When there is less speculation on an asset, the spot price also tends to follow. as in the two metrics tend to move in the same direction at the same time. And when we still have relatively high open interest, which could potentially come down, that would also mean that the spot price can potentially come down. And we've already seen how Monet is valued relative to Bitcoin. To come to the equilibrium price, it will go down by roughly 18%. Relative to the rest of the altcoin market, it could come down by roughly 20%. Right now, activity is low and so the number of liquidations is also extremely low. But I tend to look at tokconomics. I tend to look at usage statistics. And I tend to look at speculation, short-term speculation. And all of those metrics don't look great. The valuation relative to the altcoin market doesn't look that great either. Short-term momentum as in the current trend. It's also not the best in history. And so while the problem with the suspended Monet account on Twitter might get resolved and this could push the price back up again, I don't think that the overarching situation for Monet is that great. In the end, we have to stay realistic. Most altcoins tend to go down versus Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana over time. Here are the listed tokens on Binance in the last year in their performances. Over the course of one year, the vast majority of altcoins tends to go down. there is this outlier of Zchain, but outside of Zchain, most altcoins did very, very poorly. And that's how this kind of performance is created. It is not by trying to find the next Zcash. It's by flipping this chart. So, we are simply betting on the vast majority of altcoins to go down versus Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. We like, of course, to enter positions that have rallied quite a bit in the past and where then the momentum turns around. For example, here, right?

[00:06:10]This is Bit Tensor where we opened the position on the 6th of April. Since then, the price declined nicely as well.

[00:06:18]And so I announce all of my trades here in Telegram to the premium members.

[00:06:22]There's also an automatic copy trading pool. So that's where those gains are generated. That's where we made the gains last year as well. And for this year, we are targeting 44% return. We are on track to achieve that. So feel free to check out premium. The link to that pops up here on the screen. If it's your very first time here, feel free to subscribe. I publish this regularly. A like would be very much appreciate as well. Thanks for watching and see you next time.