Bitcoin Just Got Rejected at the 200 SMA. The Perma Bears Just Turned Bullish.

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]As expected from yesterday's live stream, we are seeing the pullback after the current rejection from the 200 simple average on the daily for Bitcoin.

[00:00:07]Now, this is the first test that Bitcoin's really had to it in god, it's it's been like what 6 months now since October of last year, 2025. And of course, anytime we see a major moving average like this on a major time frame tested after not being around it for a very very long time, you're almost always going to get one of these counter trend moves. It is just one of those things that is a very very high probability. Now, I do think that this ultimately will result in an opportunity, but this is just like such a perfect scenario. I saw yesterday, you know, on Twitter, on Discord. I don't really watch, you know, uh, crypto YouTubers or anything like that, but uh, but I imagine it's probably there as well. A lot of these people who have been incredibly bearish for the past few months, uh, flipped bullish as Bitcoin does approach, you know, these low $80,000 numbers, which were a major target for us. And again, on the first pass, you're almost always going to reject this. So, this is just classic textbook stuff. And I think the next move of this market is going to be very diabolical because you're going to see those same people who just flip-flop from bear to bull then flip back from bull to bear as Bitcoin comes down here.

[00:01:06]But we're going to talk about these downside targets and where the picture actually does change for the long term because I do think that um you know this is going to put a lot of people under pressure. So ultimately Bitcoin very likely does come down more from here.

[00:01:16]And I do think again the backdrop is just very very ripe for this exact scenario. When we go over to the market terminal uh tab here on central command, I want to point out that the funny rates turned positive for the first time this week or it was actually in like the last 24ish hours where it turned positive um but for the first time this week uh on this rally you know intra week and again that was coalesing with the overall picture of just hitting a major technical level plus also I mean Bitcoin put in what was a shooting star dildo right here and we do have continuation below the low of that one. So this is a good stopping place for the short term of this rally. Um and uh and I probably would be keeping a keen eye over here on the funding rates. These have just been super money um kind of with getting the short-term moves when this turns negative again. We're probably in for or at least or at least around the next higher low. Now, as far as higher lows go for Bitcoin and where I think things can get very, you know, nasty for people is where or how far down can Bitcoin come without destroying the current momentous move and the current trend.

[00:02:17]Well, for that, I'd go back to the same indicator that we've been referencing for this move to the upside, which is the Revan ribbons right here. And ultimately, as long as Bitcoin's above the midband, which is 78,200, or let's just call it 78,000 bucks, making a nice round even number, I don't really have any major issues with this uh pullback.

[00:02:33]Now, below there, if Bitcoin starts to close below there, I would absolutely entertain the possibility and even probability that Bitcoin does come down, you know, maybe another 10% to low 70s or upper 60s. Uh but for right now, that I do think is going to be a magnet for price action. And we do see somewhere down around there. Um I guess there's a very slight amount of you know on these dotted lines right here at 79 350. But personally I don't I doubt that that's going to hold. Now I mean if Bitcoin I guess closed back above 81,000 bucks today. Okay. I would be on that side but it's looking less and less likely to me.

[00:03:03]Again anything's possible obviously but that would be my line in the sand.

[00:03:06]That's the invalidation. That is how I would view the ever you know evolving landscape of price action. Also on that note, the 5day time frame over here, which we have been watching for this 5day setup, which is just based off the 5 EMA. Anytime Bitcoin goes above it, you know, open a long, anytime Bitcoin goes below it, close that long, it's, you know, it's really, really designed to catch these long-term trending moves.

[00:03:26]You can see the results right here. If you were to have played this strategy over the past 10 years for Bitcoin, you got periods of intense gains followed by periods of intense sideways, nothing going on basically. But this trade will remain open as long as Bitcoin is above again that red 5 EMA which is 78,000 bucks. So I like that $78,000 number as a line in the sand. As long as Bitcoin's above it, I look for this pullback probably to come somewhere down around there. And uh and as long as Bitcoin's closing above it again on these time frames, I don't have any major issues with this pullback. And I'd probably be looking for a higher low around there.

[00:03:56]Now, if that gets closed below, like I said, I would validate a move lower by probably a good degree. you know, you're probably going to see low seven, like very low 70s or upper 60s. So, we're talking about like a 10% move from there. Uh, still long-term, I think this is ultimately an opportunity. But, um, but yeah, you know, that would that would imply that we're going to see more downs first. Again, I would really, really, really, really, really, really, really caution against getting super bearish even if that happens. Um, personally, I will be buying, you know, high to mid60s if, you know, if we do see those numbers again. Um, which at some point I do think we will see.

[00:04:30]Anyways, text messages coming on in the background, but we got more important [ __ ] to be talking about today. Oh, by the way, nice new overlay. Thank you for that. Anyways, um yeah, so we got that.

[00:04:39]We got that. Basically, as long as Bitcoin's above 78, okay, but do expect more downside in the short term as Bitcoin, you know, fights off some of these lower term time frame uh bearish divergences. We see a lot over here on the 4-hour time frame, a lot over here on the 6 hour time frame even. And uh and this is just conducive towards this pullback. Like I said, at least getting down to like a 78 handle. Um, but somewhere around like low 78, I would be entertaining the possibility of the next higher low. Uh, so I'd keep a keen eye on on that. And um, and ultimately uh, I would also keep a keen eye on the funding rates over here on Central Command. If this turns negative again with Bitcoin getting somewhere around like low 78s, that to me would be a signal in and of itself or at least something worth um, you know, exploring.

[00:05:19]So going on from there, and I just realized that my notes are [ __ ] somewhere else. Uh perhaps I should take this time to just do a quick quick quick quick quick quick uh announcement which I made a small announcement announcement yesterday on the live stream um in which I'm looking to take a group like a very small group I'm talking 10 to 12 people at most um for about 12 weeks to go over long-term investments and a long-term analysis uh for you know more or less stocks and commodities and yeah we can do Bitcoin as well but realistically it's going to it's going to require like very very long- term term, you know, we're talking about like 5 years minimum for these sort of things. Uh, now I am I might open this up just as like a public thing, you know, um, for anyone to sign up to. But I do want to give people a chance who are, you know, watching right now to kind of get, uh, you know, a bit of a leg up if you really really are intent on join joining this group. Now, I do want to warn you, I'm going to price this thing in an offensive manner because one, I don't want everyone joining, and two, I want a certain type of person joining. What I'm going to be using this for is honesty to train my own AI bot. And right now, I've trained it really, really, really, really, really well using, you know, my frameworks for long-term investments.

[00:06:28]However, I also recognize that I'm limited by my own, you know, by my own uh frame of reference, right? And so, the best way to get around that is to get new people in there and, you know, pick their brains. So basically if you are a long-term investor, if you particularly have a bigger account as well, um then and and also if you're interested in such such a thing as well, email elsa.crowntrading outlook.com. Like I said, we will price this offensively. Um we're just going to see, you know, like who actually wants to get in first. It seems like we've already actually gotten a pretty good amount of responses. If we haven't responded back to you, by the way, it's okay. I will respond to everyone uh by tomorrow. Um but yeah, that's there for you. and uh and and perhaps we'll do that group. If we do end up doing it, that will be around middle of June is when we'd start. Um so yeah, just giving people a bit of a heads up in in advance. Anyways, while we are here on Central Command, I do want to also identify that a lot of the long liquidations you can see for the 24h hour, the 3-day, and the 30-day um long positions are coming in all around 79200. So if you do see Bitcoin below there, that opens up the gateway for that move down to 7,8200, which is actually the 7-day long liquidation level right here. As you can see, by the way, you can get all this stuff for free on centralcommand.io. There's a link in the description below as well, as well as links to uh my free TA 101 and uh and options 101 playlist. Uh but yeah, you know, that's where I'd be looking for the next sort of explosive. I don't know about explosive, but just next continuation move to the downside in the short term if you are more short-term minded. Other than that, I do want to once again f um you know uh what's it called? Uh focus on the higher term time frames for Bitcoin. Ultimately, like I said, this very likely does lead for another opportunity to the upside. I don't think that this rally is done overall. The reason why I am saying that is due to let's actually bring up this chart right here um really quickly. Uh but it's due to the corrective setup that fired off a few I guess this was like 10 to 15 days ago now. Yeah, about 10 days ago now. Um which is the cross between the red 5 EMA to the upside of the yellow 21 EMA. Whenever this happens, we almost always get a relatively quick correction to the green 55 EMA as a minimum target. When I say minimum, I mean like literally minimum getting up there. Um, I'll I'll bring you through the history of this setup as well in just a moment. But if you've been on this channel, you know, for even like 3 months, you've seen various portions of this setup play out on different time frames, but now we have it on the 5day time frame right here. So again, this setup one is is is is already live and obviously that 55 EMA is all the way at 84800 or and change.

[00:08:58]So um you know I am still looking for Bitcoin to at some point get up there and generally speaking this typically does happen somewhat quick. Um now this current iteration pro I mean not really in my opinion shaping up to be that way.

[00:09:12]Uh but again my opinion is irrelevant towards that topic. I'll bring you through the history of this and uh and it's pretty and it's very very simple.

[00:09:18]So, last time we saw this one was actually back at the end of the 2022 bare market. You can see that reduh 5 EMA cross the upside of the yellow 21 EMA right here and then boom, you get that quick move up to the green 55 EMA right here. Very beautiful. And that was actually, you know, the end of the bare market and Bitcoin was basically sideways up from there. I do want to call attention to this uh however, Bitcoin did come back down and test, you know, somewhat moderately to that uh previous low. So even though I I I kind of am leaning towards Bitcoin or at least very much open to the possibility of Bitcoin putting in a macro low at the low 60s which you know it's already been there. I do think at some point you revisit somewhere close to that region.

[00:09:58]Um of course this one over here this one was hit you know basically on the next uh you know the next candle you got that cross between the red five and the yellow 21. Boom up and uh you know you fill that target again. This one also happening just after one literal period.

[00:10:11]Of course, when we go to the one before that, that was coming off the back of the coronavirus dump in April of 2020.

[00:10:16]Same thing right here. You know, basically on the next uh you know, the next trading period and of course in 2018, this was also coming at the very end of that bare market. In fact, marking marking the end of it and Bitcoin goes up significantly from there. But even then, you know, you'll notice Bitcoin comes down about a year later basically close to that cross in fact. So you do, you know, you probably do get another opportunity at some point around those um, you know, around like upper 60s, low 70s, whatever it ends up being. Um, something like that. Of course, we go back to the previous cycle. Uh, from there we do see in 2014 and 2015. Couple of iterations right here. This one also hitting it literally on the next bar. Boom. End of bare market, sideways and up from there. And then of course this one over here taking two bars to get there, which is kind of long I guess, you know, given the rest of the history. All other iterations basically on on the next bar. Um this one again coming back down to that previous low after the uh you know corrected move had been hit. Um giving you that second opportunity and then of course the only other iteration or actually we have two other two other iterations. Um we're coming on the previous cycle to that in 2012. Um again this one marking off basically the end of the bare market. Bitcoin did come back down close to that previous low. Um you know so again this is not like a like just up only from here. No, I don't think that that's happening. I think this that this gets dragged out for a lot longer. And then this one over here actually taking the longest time to actually fulfill the target to that green 55 EMA. This one taking a total of eight bars or 40 days. So every other one was like, you know, literally one bar or two at max. Um and then that one was eight bars. So right now we're on the first bar over here. I I mean it's not it wouldn't be that crazy for it to get hit, but I don't think that that's what's happening right now. I think that you know may maybe the next period may maybe it takes more periods, but generally speaking, you know, it does happen rather quickly. And also uh once we start to get these signals, it's usually, you know, the end of the bare market cycle um or at least close to it.

[00:12:08]So like I said, uh if Bitcoin does come back down, you know, somewhere low 70s, high 60s, mid60s, whatever is somewhere in this pocket right here, I think is fair game and good value longterm.

[00:12:18]Speaking now directly to the long-term investors, uh because you have a very obvious and natural um you know, invalidation, which is just effectively the last low. And if you're trading for the long term here, you know, I I think that um the you know, the these these sort of propositions and value areas are fine and and that sort of risk at least for myself would be fine of course for yourself. You need to make that own decision for yourself. Anyways, back on a Bitcoin over here. Um I do want to call out a few other things um that happened or at least that are about to happen as we do are actually yeah, we're just about 3 days away. Yeah, we are literally 3 days away and in fact um CME is just one day away from confirming hidden bullish evidence on the 3-week time frame. So again, this is more long-term. Up until now, we've been basically mostly talking about shorter term except for that, you know, 5day uh corrective corrective analysis. This is more long-term here, obviously being the 3-we time frame and hidden bullish evidence will be confirmed um tomorrow upon closure for CME and also very likely spot to follow as well. And again, general target for that, the easy target, as I like to typically say, is going to be that yellow 21 EMA, which is a little bit higher, uh, 86400 or so.

[00:13:25]It's naturally going to come down on the next open when we get to next week. But, you know, just sort of like an area of interest for the upside, as we do have the minimum target based off of the green 55 EMA, which is 80 84 850. Um, that would be on the lower end as a minimum target. And then on the upper end, I'd say somewhere around like 86, maybe as much as 87. That is a previous breakdown over here actually from January of this year. So ultimately um you know I still think the rally gets somewhere around there before we get like a bigger deeper pullback. That'll be a lot more scary and a lot more volatile. But until then um you know on this current pullback I'm just you know I'm looking for higher lows. Don't really have a reason to get bearish on Bitcoin until you're you know realistically closing consistently below like 78,000 bucks. And of course we'll update this on tomorrow's live stream as well. Other than that we can go ahead and check out traditional markets. um you know the overall broad market still bullish conditions conducive towards this rally continuing again this one also closes in the 3we time frame tomorrow this one has hidden bullish evidence here and you already have new all-time highs today made new alltime highs as well and you're getting you know a little bit of a pullback that's fine put this into perspective this thing is bullish and I have no issues at with this thing at all whatsoever even on a daily time frame as long as you're above 7130 so this pullback here probably reconnects with the red 5 EMA at 73 that's okay again doesn't really do doesn't really mean all that much for like the long term or anything like this. Ultimately, this thing does want to go higher. We're still looking at all higher term time frames as bullish here.

[00:14:47]Quarterly time frame, I think, is really the tell. Um, if this thing were to pull back to like 69,950 or 7,000, I would look at that as a long-term great opportunity. Um, going into what is probably the final, you know, couple drives of this of this mega rally. Um, so personally, I'm still looking at this market as likely to hop out in Q4 of this year. Until then, I'm just generally looking for higher lows on any sort of pullbacks and continuation to new highs. Um, of course, we got NASDAQ above 28,000 bucks. We we had a major long-term target at 28,500. That's already been hit, obviously. Uh, same thing on this thing. You know, you could get a pullback all the way down to like 26,500. That would be fine. That would be an opportunity. Uh, and same thing on, you know, as SPY futures as well.

[00:15:28]It's like, I think you probably go into the end of this year, but somewhere around Q4, maybe slightly before, I'm looking for the next major probably macro high. Other than that, seems like most stocks uh on my list today are taking this opportunity to have a bit of a pullback. Again, that's expected. You know, you're not going to go up in a straight [ __ ] line. Duh. Um and this is, like I said, really beautiful timing with a lot of these things cuz it feels like a lot of the people who have been really uh pessimistic on this market are like just finally got bullish in the last few days. So, fair enough. You know, that is what it is. You know, markets rinse and repeat. And look, I'm I'm I'm not saying this to like make fun of anyone else. I'm not saying this to talk down to anyone else. I'm just saying it because ultimately you're going to run into these situations in the future as well. You're going to see the same thing happen again. Why?

[00:16:10]Because human emotions are the most consistent thing over time because we've been dealing with the same [ __ ] machinery in our brains since you know we became anatomically modern homo sapiens like what 100,000 years ago or or more something like that. Um so you know these things repeat cycles repeat that's that's why effectively and if you're going to be a smartass saying but AI makes all the trades now. Yes. And who is it programmed by? Who is it created by? Who is it intrinsically influenced by?

[00:16:35]rats. I don't know, maybe humans. Who the [ __ ] knows? Uh but yeah, uh that's pretty much all I got today. Uh for for these guys, basically pull back across all markets. Um but for me, just looking for higher lows. NASDAQ could pull back a lot more here. Um you know, if this thing came back down to 27,500, that would be a great place for a higher low.

[00:16:54]But uh patience shall win the game on this one. Again, I don't think uh you know, now's the time to be like super super greedy. Um, however, I would again mark off last quarter of this year as likely, you know, kind a questionable time or at least a time to be more defensive, time to be more skeptical. Other than that, I think it's a good place for me to be leaving off on this video. Um, as always, we'll do a live stream on Friday. You can see, yeah, you can actually see at the top hand side, I do not have any open trades right now. Or actually, no, I do have my open um, uh, short call spread, but I did cover that.

[00:17:28]So, I can't even really show it cuz I can't show like the cover on it right now. just look like a massive loss if you only show the uh the options position. But yes, the underlined has been bought in this case. Um other than that, yeah, we'll sign off. I'll be back on tomorrow with another live stream. Um until then, take care, much love, and see you hopefully next time.