🟢 LIVE | Bitcoin Futures - Live Trading 127

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[00:01:21]W [music] [music] W W [music] เ వ W W So, is it Tuesday then? No, sorry, Wednesday afternoon at 3 o'clock, just got back into position live. Just under, uh, three quarters of an hour ago, I had a filling in my lung. I'm going to briefly explain that lung in a moment. Uh, I'm going to do an analysis of Bitcoin to see how the price is doing. I do that on the weekly, the daily, and uh, the lower timeframe levels. Take a look at what the scenarios are now. Um, I'm filled in the lung regarding the confirmation that I had already, uh, already, uh, seen yesterday.

[00:07:27]I'm going to explain that briefly in a moment. Anyway, it's nice that you're watching my livestream. Just enjoying some live trading. You can also picture the position. And uh, if you like that and you aren't subscribed to my channel yet, please do so right away. I am live weekly and I always have a recorded video with a market update. Um well, you see that I'm filled up. Let me see. First of all, let me just say that if you have any questions and you are watching live, please ask them in the chat. Then I will answer that. Let's make that chat a bit interactive. And um, last Sunday I gave a uh derivatives trade clinic. It was really fun on Zoom and I'm going to schedule another one soon. Um, because it was just fun. Two hours could have lasted three or four hours for me too. But, uh, you shouldn't do it for too long either. And uh, we just went through everything in there. So, uh, from the uh beginning of the analysis up to and including placing and managing the trade.

[00:08:24]So, uh, that was just really tasty. I'll be honest with you, I didn't really like the promotion over the past, well, past two weeks. Um, I'm having a hard time, uh look, you could have gone short twice, but in hindsight, I thought that was a bit of a stretch. I haven't really been able to get into any nice positions. I actually had that yesterday too, because you had that whole move down yesterday.

[00:08:49]Next you set a low, and because you break here and even already break this drop or here, um, I wanted to be in a lung, but I actually wanted that lung to be filled immediately, so I would have hit my first TP already. Now, uh, I frontrun initially, you go up and still raise liquidity. Personally, I do n't find those to be the tastiest fillets anymore. I will leave the orders standing, though. Uh, but for the same reason you dump yourself and get stopped out. So, um yeah, I'm slightly in the green right now. It is a position with $10,000.

[00:09:24]So, uh yeah, by the time we reach TP3, I will have made a net 2.5 to 3 percent. That is, uh, a trade with an RR of over 4. So that would be 20% TP1, 30% or 40% TP2, 30% TP3, and then I have 10% running. Yes. Uh, suppose this is a runner to 85K, it could just be a nice trade. So, uh yeah, we're just going to uh experience that. It is not the nicest position I would have liked to be filled in, but I will take that into account in the analysis in a moment.

[00:09:54]Um, again, if you have any questions, ask them. And if you are watching live, ask them in the chat.

[00:10:02]Then I'll answer that, and we're just going to take our time to go over everything I want to discuss in the coming hour. to look. It is May 13th. Right, that's fixed. Just checking if there are any questions. Well, not yet. Okay. How did I get this lung?

[00:10:52]Uh, initially I had uh as an area where I wanted to go long. Look, I do two things. I always define an area beforehand where I want to go long. Initially, that was a bit here. So I was looking between 8 and 79K. Well, you set, uh, you set a high, you set a low. You set a lower uh high, and then I expected a lower low. But the moment I see a tipping point beforehand during a dump, if we do n't reach my level, but before that, I already see a tipping point, then I do want to maintain the flexibility by spotting the tipping point and jumping in anyway, regardless of whether you are at your level or not. Well, that happened.

[00:11:37]I'm going to zoom in for a bit to see how I played that long. And it is slightly in the plus now. a bit around and alongside the entry. You saw here, uh, that you're grinding your way down a bit, which means you can basically already fill in, which means you can basically already count on your fingers, uh, that liquidity is being built up there.

[00:12:00]There are entries everywhere, there are SLs everywhere. So sooner or later you're going to do that, or there's a good chance you'll test it again. Well, you set a low here and then I have, and I always do that analysis for myself on a different chart. I always do that on the index chart, but this is the chart I played it on. Uh, this is your last, uh, or this was actually kind of your last local resistance towards that low. And then you have a drop of liquorice. Well, that's actually kind of two levels of confirmation.

[00:12:27]is one somewhat more aggressive. The second one becomes more dessert-like, even this one. But I won't take that. I watched these two arrows a bit to break them at the quarter-hour mark. Well, that happened here. So you set a low and then with this candle construction, uh, you break this level, and with this construction, you break this level, which triggered the trade for me. Well, uh, what I would prefer to see then is that you raise liquidity all at once, get funded, and that it goes ahead after all. Well, tonight you grind down again, I fronrun my uh trade, and you go up. I had actually sort of guessed that it would end there. That didn't happen. Um, eventually, uh, I get filled here after all. Do you achieve liquidity, or do you set a higher low with that wedge—and that is millimeter work. So I think that's actually quite impressive. Wick and then go straight away. That is what is happening at this moment. So uh and I look for that I play that construction.

[00:13:25]So that is actually a confirmation.

[00:13:27]So I don't have direct play. Suppose you have a direct play, then you could, for example, be filled in here.

[00:13:32]I won't do that. I always define levels in advance, then I wait until the prize is there, and then I prefer to look at the 15-minute timeframe to spot a new structure there and jump in as aggressively as possible at the very first... uh... break of a local level. Well, that happened. I'm standing, uh, kind of around now and at the entry. Just get the position back. That is this um entry, green line, uh stop loss red line and my TPs. Uh, those lie on the green dotted line.

[00:14:05]Well, in this case, that is now your last drop, or uh, that was it.

[00:14:10]In the end, uh, I found it a bit harder to post here, but in the end, I'm just posting a TP and TP3 uh, on the high of uh, of the whole uh, yeah, of the whole Beermarkt rally actually.

[00:14:24]The high on the uh to after adding the 2 to 83K. And then I'm 90% sure. TP1 is 20% out, TP2 is 40% out, TP3 is 30% out. Then I have an RR of 1 in 4 and then I let 10% run, uh, for yeah, for when you're in the runner. So, uh, that's kind of that. Uh FR Shorts, good afternoon. Would you also like to perform an analysis on an altcoin? Well, if you tell us which altcoin, we'll just grab it for a moment. Um, because then I'll do that, and then I'm just going to quickly, uh, just quickly make a small analysis of the entire market to see where we, uh, stand at the moment.

[00:15:11]I always do that on the index chart. [sniffs] Then we see Bitcoin here on the weekly chart. We'll take a quick look at that. Uh, we have set a provisional floor at 60K. a few weeks in the countryside. Uh, this week is in the red. On the weekly, you can clearly see that the level we want to break through now, the level we want to break through now, that that is, let's say, [sniffs] a bit the 6 to 86. Am I saying that right? Yes, that's kind of the point. I think that if we break the red bar, that if we break the red bar, you break, you test back and you keep going and then really on the weekly, then uh you can at least define a new bull market again. At the moment, as far as I am concerned, we have done nothing other than, uh, a relief rally within the Betmarkt. That is just that is just as good another 30 40% or uh, well, something like that.

[00:16:14]No, that is just 35% that you made if you bought the base and you are still in it now.

[00:16:20]Yes, personally I would take TPs then. Uh, because yeah, 35% is just not insignificant. It's quite tasty. You could have made some nice gains on that. Also for your leverage trade in that uh whole uh yeah, in this whole area actually, you could have perfectly well taken longs and shorts. That is very tasty. Uh, but that's on the weekly.

[00:16:41]Where can you still go at the moment? Well, suppose you run into this wedge now. That wedge was the bottom of the construction preceding the market earlier this year. So let's say, uh, where the top was at nearly 98K and the bottom at 80K. Uh there, uh, that was support back then. That is resistance. Yes, you want to go through that for the first time to be able to look further up. Made a few attempts, still haven't succeeded, but um yeah, we'll see if that works out. We are going to look at the daily chart to see how the levels stand now. Um, I'll be honest with you, personally I do expect a retest. Why? I 'm never really wild about little steps, this kind of grinding price promotion going up. The trend is strongly upward, but that you can expect a retest at some point is, in my view, to put it mildly. Um, this is your drop-off that brought you to the final bottom. That dropof that started around 78K.

[00:17:47]Uh, you’ve broken with a number of daily constructions or a number of daily candles there, haven't you?

[00:17:53]So you're at the top. Then you may test back. Well, as far as I'm concerned, the first one is the best level where you can test back to back, which would be normal. A bit like, let's say, 5 to 77k. I think that is normal. I think that's the right one; for me, that's a pretty big spotby too. Um, so that we're going to uh do this. That would be, uh, fine for me. Because that is where my spot entries are located as well. If you go through that, I think there is a nice new short lying around, because then I also think you will go lower. Well, to uh the 73, the 70. Um yeah, and you actually don't want to get there anymore, but still the 68.

[00:18:33]Um, those would be a technical target for a potential short. And as far as I'm concerned, that short is activated if you lose that, uh, top arrow, let's say, around 77K.

[00:18:46]I am assuming retesting and then going further up. And how do I assume that my first, uh, spotby is lying there? And that spoty was actually triggered after you managed to break that 78K with a number of daily candles.

[00:19:02]If we do this, if we do this which is what I'm kind of counting on, so you test the 77 or the 78K back and you go further up, then I look at the next one, uh, the 88K and eventually the top of, uh, and for me there are significant TPs there from spot positions I'm already in. 5 to 97K.

[00:19:21]Those are kind of my, uh, my targets. So if you do this one, if you do this one, or if you go further up now— then I'm looking at that one, right—then you are simply continuing your uptrend. Then I look at the 88K and then I look at the 95k more or less. Uh, once again, if we break through that, you test that back as the support, but if you fail, if you break through that, then support becomes resistance. And then the technical levels I'm looking at are 73, 70, and the uh 68.

[00:19:54]So that is uh that is that, at least.

[00:19:56]Now we're going to take a bit of a look at the 4 o'clock mark to see where the levels are for me that I had actually already sketched out with arrows, but uh, these are kind of the levels I'm looking at.

[00:20:05]You can also see that clearly at the 4 o'clock. Uh, above the current price, uh, I drew two levels too close together. Those are just books between 2 and 84. There is also a nice one there for me, a nice short if we flip. Uh, a new lung. So I'm already in the lung. I have, uh, explained that. Uh, that is a very aggressive long, uh, close to the price.

[00:20:29]But if you look a bit further away from the price on the 4-hour chart, I think there is a nice long opportunity between 8, 78, 7 and 795. If you don't do that, and you break through there, then for me there is an extra short towards 75, 73 and 70. Yeah.

[00:20:47]And those are all levels, yes, that just lie underneath there, where I can already view the same thing for every level. Uh, I can say the same.

[00:20:56]I just take long on the roll on every level, uh. So the levels below you, the support levels on the tilt, uh, long, and uh, levels above the price, resistance levels on the tilt, uh, short. So that's kind of how I, uh, look at the current price. And those levels are then, uh yeah, just on every retestable low and every retestable high. Well, you are facing strong resistance at the moment. So uh, what would be nice is, uh, if from here, you want to test back down, that you make one more uh push between the 2 and the 84, eventually flip there, then the short, and that you then uh, backtest one of those levels to make a higher time frame and higher low somewhere. That is kind of how I, uh, look at the Bitcoin chart. So now we're going to uh Ethereum for a moment. Let me just grab the Ethereum chart. to uh see where we stand on that. And then we just take the 4-hour chart. Ethereum just looks a bit less strong. Uh, this is the index chart. Well, what did we see? We have seen that we have set a bottom around the or the 17.5.

[00:22:13]Eventually, you slowly grind your way up.

[00:22:16]Put a top on the uh 24 and a bit. Well, just to be clear, I think if Bitcoin is at this level when Ethereum is, then Bitcoin is already pretty close to this level.

[00:22:31]Yes, Ethereum still has some catching up to do on that, and it simply isn't doing it. In fact, Ethereum, uh, is moving sideways with lower highs after a small climb. Yes, there is a very high chance that you will backtest the $200, the $2000, and the 19. Well, there are some nice spotbys of canteling long lying there. But look, this whole push downwards is still open. If Bitcoin manages to push on to, let's say, 88 and 95K, then Ethereum certainly won't be left behind. And then I think that with a lot of force you'll eventually head towards $2700, towards 3K, uh, and if you blow it all the way through, then 3300. And that said, from the current price point, that's just a nice up of uh well over 40%. So if you manage to get into a position with a spot-by or a leverage trade for Ethereum and it goes, yeah, then you can just make some nice, uh, nice gains. But until then, it just looks weak. You've already run into those systems a number of times.

[00:23:37]You have fronted that here. Tested here a few times as well. You are failing; in fact, the strength is waning. Once liquidity is secured, then uh regain and continue upwards. That would also be a nice trade scenario. But again, if you go the 2400 plus, the $2700, the 3K and the 3.5K. Yeah, those are just levels where you can either go short on the turnaround or hit TPs on nice longs.

[00:24:03]Yes, we'll see about that. But that's a bit of Ethereum for now.

[00:24:10]And then, uh, I'm curious if there are any questions in the chat. In any case, ask them.

[00:24:16]Uh, an altcoin has been requested. Uh, let me just quickly check my position to see what Bitcoin is doing right now. Uh, this is my position.

[00:24:32]My lung is slightly underwater. In fact, my, um, locally speaking, my entry has been tested as the resistance, so a Beish retest. I took Ethereum.

[00:24:50]I'll just quickly check the chain link. Uh, where can I find a link? This is opposed to Bitcoin.

[00:25:07]Take [ __ ] on the daily tap.

[00:25:11]Oh, he certainly showed a nice push. Um, let me see. What has Chainlink done? Well, eventually, uh, just doing a bit of grinding here. Compression. Eventually, you break out. If you aren't sitting, this would be a nice one. Uh, because you're breaking out of that compression. Then your aggressive test is ten and a defensive test is $9.40.

[00:25:41]Uh, tap up or a little down. One of the two. And then the technical target is 11. There would be a nice TP there.

[00:25:55]Uh 13.

[00:26:00]And if you get through that, then I think that very quickly, um, I think that you can already head towards $20 very quickly. Maybe still somewhere around here.

[00:26:11]So suppose you look here, you have, uh, you have gone sideways for a while, right?

[00:26:18]That is kind of the part between $8 and $10.

[00:26:25]Within that range, the price is pressing here. You break out, then there is a retest lying somewhere. Aggressive is ten, defensive $9.40. Uh, if you manage to get into position there, then I think you can take some nice TPs around 1180, around 1375, and those arrows above that, $17 and $20. It is heading in that direction just like that. But the fact that you think it would be nice to get into position now, that is nice. As far as I'm concerned, he is actually quite, um, interesting for the position. Uh, because you also have your, let's say, your resistance from that whole range lying here, you've already managed to break that with a number of daily candles.

[00:27:09]Have you already done that on the weekly as well? Not yet.

[00:27:15]But if you manage to close above $10, well above $10 this week, then you have done it.

[00:27:22]He's really looking good, you know.

[00:27:25]He's doing pretty well. Yes.

[00:27:29]Yes, I think that could yield a nice trade. I'll just write it down, anyway. I'm just going to write it down, because I think it looks pretty, uh, pretty good. Let's see.

[00:28:07]If you look at the 4 o'clock mark, this would be a nice entry.

[00:28:46]or This one and I also have spot uh spot positions with Chainlink. This is also the spot chart.

[00:29:26]Yes, I'm going to keep an eye on that. I think that uh 9.95 and 9.25 are pretty nice uh entries.

[00:29:39]And then if you're sitting, head here for that $13 anyway. It's nice here. I see four TP here.

[00:30:14]Here.

[00:31:29]Yes, I'm going to add this one to my watchlist. Um, because I do think he's in a good position as an entry.

[00:31:44]Trading a long isn't really going well on Bitcoin. No, look, I wanted to play this one. I had that confirmation from him yesterday. This uh licorice should have been a lot for me. Then I would have had at least one TP. Well, you dump that front run in the end.

[00:32:00]he only becomes more risky.

[00:32:04]Um, but if we drop through that, then I also think you'll really drop to around 8 to 79. And then I just try to spot the tipping again. Um, America has opened in the meantime.

[00:32:28]Any more questions? Are you watching live? Ask in the chat. We're just going to take a quick, uh, look at a few things. Because of course yesterday we had the CPI, uh well, inflation in America is rising again. As a result, the FOMC meetings also become very interesting.

[00:32:45]Because as inflation rises, the pressure from the FOMC not to lower interest rates naturally increases as well. In fact, it might even be increased.

[00:32:58]Well, when, uh, when is that FOMC actually? It will still take a little while.

[00:33:14]Oh. Oh, not until June 17th.

[00:33:19]Well, let's see if we have anything else on the agenda.

[00:33:24]Um, this week, yesterday of course that CPI, uh, apart from that we did n't really have any noteworthy events. Um, but I'll just look for another overview.

[00:33:41]I am looking for this one.

[00:34:04]Inflow and outflow of Bitcoin ETFs.

[00:34:07]Um well, accumulation is increasing again.

[00:34:17]More inflow than outflow per salary. So that just looks good too.

[00:34:31]Yes, it is just a matter of waiting to see what my position does next. Do you also own Bitcoin for the long term? Mik 2705. Certainly. I, uh, am just trying to expand my Bitcoin position through trading, and, uh, yeah, I'm actually just staying away from that. So I'll let that go. It was only once promised that Bitcoin would reach a million.

[00:34:57]So we are waiting for that. And uh before that time, um, I'm just trying to uh expand my uh Bitcoin position through trading.

[00:35:39]H Ah, price pressure is down after all.

[00:35:51]Price pressure is definitely down.

[00:35:58]So that's going to be a tough one. Yes.

[00:36:32]And then I'm uh, not really having a great trading month. I have, uh, a few stop-outs, no green trades yet this month, two front runs.

[00:36:43]So then the month of May isn't very nice for me.

[00:36:47]Any more questions and you're watching live? Ask them in the chat. I'll just subscribe to my YouTube channel if you like. Live every week.

[00:36:59]Uh, also a recorded video with a price update.

[00:37:04]So if you like that, subscribe to my channel. This is going to be a tough one. Yes.

[00:39:30]Shame. Well, just a few more dollars.

[00:39:46]Then I'll be kicked out.

[00:40:35]Well, I get frontrun very often with entries and TPs, but generally never with my stop-losers.

[00:40:46]What kind of diary do you use? Excel or an app website. Uh, the Trading View anyway. So, uh, there, uh, I have a visual order book. So there I simply mark the entry as a stop loss, or as a stop-out, or as a good trade. And in Excel, I uh, keep track of the rest. And of course, I always just use, um, the notebook from, uh, The Exchange itself.

[00:41:12]But I just keep track of them myself every month in Excel. Yes.

[00:41:35]Any more questions in the chat? Just zoom in a little.

[00:42:11]I am heading towards my last TP. Yes, tasty. Nice when you're wearing shorts.

[00:42:22]My TPs and my entries do get frontrun often, but my stop loss never does. Let's just check minute by minute what he's doing.

[00:42:48]Maybe Ah is there. It's always quite exciting, though, when you shoot so thickly close to the stopless.

[00:44:48]Yes, one more push. Then I stopped. Yes, I'm out. Unfortunately.

[00:45:00]Unfortunately.

[00:45:14]No, not a good buddy so far.

[00:45:17]Stopouts and front runs, and still no good trade. So that's just a shame. Um, what am I looking at right now? anyway after levels that are lower.

[00:45:34]Um, personally, I think I look at the tipping point at the level we are arriving at now.

[00:45:43]Um, and I still have a [sniffs] spotby lying on Bitcoin against the euro, and it's right here. So that's kind of the zone. [sigh] 65,000 65.2 in euros. So that kind of coincides with, uh, this part here. So my first spotby, that is a bit in this uh region and I am doing that against the euro.

[00:46:14]For now, I'm kind of going to keep an eye on the uh level uh between 78 and 79.

[00:46:23]Thick tick thick. I'm going to keep an eye on this. What would I like to see then? That a shift becomes visible, and that is not visible right now, uh, at the quarter hour mark.

[00:46:35]So that you at least hit a local, right, that you at least put a low now, and that you then manage to break something local. For example, the last, um, drop-off. So that you do this, for example.

[00:46:48]I would like to get on board with that. Yes. And the lower the price goes, the lower that construction will be as well. But that, uh, that I'll just keep an eye on for now. Um, and then we're going to see that a bit, uh. So that 's that.

[00:47:50]So we'll just have to wait and see. Guys, um, if there are any more questions, just ask them in the chat and I'll answer them. to see if a foundation is already being cautiously laid.

[00:48:21]Not.

[00:48:27]Then it is just a matter of waiting. Um, I made a uh, just a quick market update. Uh, I explained my trade and answered questions.

[00:48:35]For the coming hours to days, I'm just going to keep an eye on these levels. I think it is very interesting what you are going to do here around that 78. Um, so that would mean you make one more push down, then uh regain, and then go further up or go back up. Yes.

[00:48:55]And uh, until then, it's just a matter of waiting.

[00:48:58]Um, for now I'll just stick to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some altcoins. So oil and S&P and the like. I'll leave that for now. Um yeah, what I think the oil price is going to do. I think that is very volatile. I think that's going to turn into, uh, tweeting back and forth between Trump and Iran. And uh that depending on whose tweet uh the price goes up or down. Uh, that is some oil. That will simply become a volatile asset in the near future. So yeah, guys, I'm calling it quits. Uh, I've covered everything. I have stopped. I am going to wait for the turnaround and then I will step in on a long. As far as I'm concerned, you can go all the way back to 75, because there's a nice spot there too. And um yes, for now I want to thank you for watching this stream. I'll be back next week. Um, tomorrow I'll post a video with a price update. And uh, for now, I wish you all a very pleasant evening.

[00:49:56]Ciao W P