This video explains how to identify market cycles and recession indicators in cryptocurrency trading. The presenter discusses how markets follow predictable cycles where prices transition between different ranges, with quarterly and monthly patterns. Key indicators include moving averages (50-week, 200 EMA), weekly cycle lows, and divergence between price and implied correlation. The presenter analyzes how geopolitical events like Middle East conflicts and economic data (such as Canada's technical recession) can impact market sentiment. The core concept is that understanding these cycles helps traders identify potential bottoms and tops, with the presenter noting that Bitcoin's current market behavior mirrors previous bear market cycles from 2017 and 2022.
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Deep Dive
🟡 Bitcoin : Closing Bulanan MerahAdded:
Wa wa wa ua ua.
Ladies and gentlemen, good evening everyone. Welcome back to the Crypto live stream on the second channel. Welcome to charity to charity to the start of the week. Welcome to the new month. Wow, Monday on the 1st.
We rarely see something like this.
Welcome to June. Welcome to the last month of the second quarter of 2026. The closer we get to quarter 3 towards quarter 4, the closer we get to bareoms. It's really starting to feel like 1 month ago, we were still here and here, according to the prices 2 months ago or 3 months ago, it seems like we were still here and there when the prices went down, right? Yes, that's what be market is.
And if the projections are correct, next month we will enter a new standard or a new price range. And from next month to the following months, price changes will be minimal. Just like now, what we are going through right now is probably 70,000, we have visited several times in the last few months and before we transition to month 200, eh in 2026, it's still in 2025, it seems like 90,000 will be the standard. So the standards are slowly coming down as we've discussed many times in the be market. Today, because we are entering a new month, I want to tell you all about Bitcoin's monthly close and there are several charts that I have prepared to reflect what Bitcoin is actually like, even though the monthly close looks bad, even though the monthly close looks bullish, is there any improvement?
Is there a new increase? Because what we are looking for is a low, a bottom range, eh, what's the name of the range? What is the date, this date range, or will Bitcoin soon fall even lower? Moreover, if we look at today's price movements for BTC, we see that Bitcoin is not getting stronger but weaker over time. Okay, we will all discuss it or I will all discuss it. I'm going to cover everything I just said on today's live stream. So, sit back, relax, enjoy the show. That's the intro for now.
And don't forget to like and sub if you haven't. Okay, let's get straight to news number one.
We will discuss Bitcoin here later. I've prepared some charts. I want to talk a little about the escalation in the Middle East.
Yes, it's not finished yet, it's not finished at all. In fact, since last week, really last week, we have had a super detailed peace deal from Trump. After that, the peace deal was cancelled. After that, at the end of last week, we also got another peace deal, and now or yesterday, the peace deal was canceled again. So in just 1 week two deals have been cancelled.
Is there a new piece deal?
Approximately this week you can guess in the comments please. I want to let you all know that the Middle East escalation has been extended to the point where President Trump said in no hurry.
not in a hurry to make a new deal.
If we don't get what we want, we are going to end it in a different way. We will in other words, yes, indirectly say that yesterday's peace deal escalated the war even higher. Even though 300 billion dollars was to be given to Iran as reparations.
But now it's clear ee what's it called? Trump America is back to war again huh. And the funny thing is, yesterday we did a live stream, or 2 days ago, we did a live stream with members on the main channel, and I happened to be confused at that time when I saw the price of the war stock that we were only tracking on Members had gone up before this was announced. It's the 31st, so yesterday. So, indirectly, you can see that if you are a member, insiders have already priced in a renewed escalation, a renewed war, and will this lower the price of Bitcoin further, and will it stop here? Oh, by the way, today marks 93, 93 days since the conflict in the Middle East began.
Does it stop here?
No, because we just got the information from SentCom, from America's Central Command. If we just go straight to this, we'll just summarize it. US military says it bombed Iranian Radar Command and Control SES June 1.
Very very very interesting, yes. Once again, if we're talking about peace talks with Trump, yes. If Trump comes in as a negotiator, it will be a long story. And this is the proof. And this is the real article that came out once again June 1st. What should what can we do besides it is what it is?
Next, I want to mention a little about the recession update and how overvalued this market is. Yes, we always talk on this channel and since the main channel since last year too. A recession is something that cannot be reversed. Once you start, you can't slow down or pull it back. It's not like a debt to someone, it's not like a debt to a friend.
and the recession cannot be reversed and cannot be managed because as long as a country, America or anyone else, we too, still use fiat currency, the recession will always be engineered. The question, or rather the case for the Fed, is whether the Fed can slow down the recession enough so that the recession is not felt? The answer is no. Okay, that's what we always talk about on this channel. And if we reflect on market prices, all current market prices, or at least stocks, are not Bitcoin. Bitcoin, Bitcoin has fallen a lot. But the stock was so overvalued that it reached its highest level in its lifetime, comparable only in 1929. What happened in 1929? Believe it or not? There is a recession, in fact, if you understand, if you have been paying attention all this time, every spike indicates a recession, and this is the highest overvaluation in the last 100 years. This is the chart compared to the year 2000, where the chart in 2000 is here, it's not far. It's not that it's not far, I mean it's lower, but the price movement of the stock index is this high from how overvalued it is. 20 years ago, this was still around 4,000, now it's already 10x R,000 if you just hold the spot for 20 years. This chart, if we compare it with 1996 to 2000, before everything collapsed, actually reflects what we have seen in stock prices almost 1 to 1. It's a bit scary if the blow of the top is indeed like this, but this reflects 1 to 1 with the current price. And the question is are we going to see a recession?
That's question number one. Number two is whether the stock goes straight down like we see here. Not a falling drop, a long drop as we see here and as we see here. And the third question is will we see normalization return like this? Jaw all the answers are yes yes. If you haven't watched our channel, all the answers are yes. Yes We will see a recession or that is what we project. Yes This is going to drop a lot. Once it drops, there's no pumping it up anymore. Because we have discussed every angle on this channel, every angle that is used for an uptrend is used to make the stock uptrend, the longer it is, the more it becomes sharper instead of becoming blunter. So we expect the decline to be sharp, and this overvaluation really needs to be normalized downwards. So in other words, all markets need to be reset with additional evidence that there is a divergence in the market that has never been seen in a lifetime. It was 100 years ago, this is 2026, this is 1929.
Almost 100 years. This is the first time we have ever seen divergence in our lives. Oh, yes, it happened once, but that was in 2025. Apart from that, we have never seen such divergence again, it has never been seen in the markets. Where the price is all going up, making all time highs many times many times many times. But the three-month implied correlation is falling towards an all-time low. Every time you make a low what happens? We always revert upwards and make a big correction be the market yes in other words or a recession. This is also the same every time there is an increase in these rates, right? every time there is an increase we get a very big correction or spill. This is also the same, this is also the same, this is also the same. Yes, we see that very often in the markets. Speaking of recession, is it true that what we've been saying all this time will happen to America?
Yes, something like that would be difficult to predict. In other words, we are betting that one country will be destroyed. But what we've been saying all this time isn't a lie, is it? Our words are always backed by data. For example, a few live streams ago, I mentioned that Canada had entered a technical recession and this is the proof, yes, it's the 29th, I forgot yesterday, ee e, what, take the article for all of you. So let's discuss it on today's live stream. Canada has unexpectedly entered a technical recession. Unexpectedly? Not really.
We've been expecting this for a long time. for the first time since pandemic lockdown 2020.
Why? What is the data? Canada's GDP fell 0.1% in the first quarter and also fell minus 1% in the previous quarter. So there are two prints that haven't been revised yet, two negative prints for Canada's GDP and a technical recession. Yes, although once again, it's impossible for the country not to say that our country is going into recession, our country is in recession, you know. But now Canada has entered a technical recession because its GDP has been negative for two consecutive quarters.
This marks two straight quarters of GDP contraction, yes. for the first time in six years in the last six years, eh, two quarters of GDP has fallen, right? Economists say that economists had predicted that the first quarter GDP should have increased, but it turned out that the economy suddenly contracted and fell.
This week GDP data coincides with a weak job market as well. Yes, we have discussed it many times on this channel. If the GDP is already weak, oh eh, the GDP print is weak, coupled with previous data, namely that the job market is already weak and the Canadian economy is likely to remain under pressure due to tariffs. Until now there are still rates. Even so, the US household savings rate failed to 3.5% reaching its lowest level since quarter 1 2024. As spending rows faster than incomes. So once again, we have talked about this many times when we talk about recession. People, yes, American society, not American, but Canadian, yes. The community must continue to maintain the existing lifestyle or even have to spend more than what they earn, what is their income or what do they get from their jobs, their salary, they spend more than their salary during difficult times where everything is expensive, oil prices are expensive, goods prices are expensive, service prices are expensive, everything is expensive. So, there really needs to be some relief. This is all a real scream Q for Canadians. The logic is the same as what we've been saying to Americans for a long time. And what I can say here is that one by one the countries are slowly falling. Indonesia is currently experiencing major inflation due to Q. But others haven't.
But now we see another country falling into recession or technical recession. Canada enters recession. So I would n't be surprised if in the following months, one by one, one by one, countries start to see recession. And I'm also not surprised if the market for Canada, eh, what's it called? Does Canada have a stock index? But if they have a cave, don't be surprised if it will slowly go down or start topping out. Yes, that's what we expect for everyone, especially for America. Come on, let's discuss Bitcoin now. We now discuss BTC. This is Bitcoin's monthly close candle. It's a bit beish if you just look at it like this. J said, "I've never seen I've seen better looking monthly candles." Yes, this e signifies what?
This indicates that the selling pressure is greater at the top before closing at the bottom. But remember, this is a monthly candle, so you can't draw too much data from this monthly candle. But if we go down to the weekly candle, what do you think it's called? The macro time frame is the best for your analysis, or if you have a premium for 3 days, that's also great. Eh, between daily and weekly there are three days too. Okay. If for example we layer it, what is this? We layered 50. Oh no sorry, wrong. Let's layer the 50 week 50 weekly moving average first. We see that since Bitcoin's generational run, many people have said that at that time, many people said that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high and so on. Some say the mic is small. Let me try to raise it a little bit, okay?
Some say this Bitcoin pump will go to 85, 90, 100, and so on.
It's clear that if we look at it now, Bitcoin has been going up for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 consecutive weeks, but it has reversed its 1, 2, 3 and Q4 weeks down. It's very very very boring to talk about price action. And this is what I said at the beginning. How many times have we touched 70? We've already touched 70 in June, in April, in May, in March, in February, and in Well, in February we start. So, February, March, April, May, and June. Never changed. It's only on the channel here, okay? It even moves like Bitcoin in the channel. Okay, so for weekly it has dropped below 50. After that, if we open the larger moving average, this is 50, which we also got a rejection on the second candle, sorry, the e candle 2 weeks ago, I mean 2 weeks ago we also got a rejection and 1 week ago we also got a rejection at eh 20, yes, at the 20 moving average where if I'm not mistaken, this is ee I forgot [laughs] 502, yes, that's right, if I'm not mistaken, the 50 is really here and this is 100, yes. This is 100, 200 here. So if Bitcoin can still be supported, I think I'll support it here. But we clearly saw Bitcoin drop once yesterday in a 200 break like what it did in the previous cycle. But in the previous cycle there was no data like that. Moving on to daily. If we go down to the daily, you all already know that Bitcoin was also rejected at the 200 e exponential moving average EMA, right? The previous cycle was also like this. Oh, there was a previous cycle like this too. Bitcoin is in the be market and the keyword is just in the be market.
Rejected here and here and here and here. Even if it breaks through, remember that the moving average is not a single line, but more like a cloud. So it was rejected here too, then it went down and after that entered the third wave consolidation that we always talk about on this channel. So, at least what we're seeing now is that Bitcoin is entering the bull market, and this is no different from the previous cycle. There's no difference, it's the same as the previous cycle. It's 2017, right?
Ah, there aren't any more.
Let's move this chart, okay? It's 2017.
Oh my, it's bad again. It's 2017 here it is. So 2017 is the same except for this. We also get rejection from here and here and here and here and instead the rejection gets smaller and smaller before dropping back down.
So once again I repeat what I have said many times.
If Bitcoin is in this bear market, it is no different from the previous bear market. And if we're right, if Bitcoin suddenly doesn't make a new all-time high, it's because time is running out, and it's almost over. we will see or in my opinion, the chances are higher if we see a deeper drop towards the fourth quarter, namely in November or December this year. What I want to tell you all, if we look at the macro time frame, what I have to tell you all, and this might be a bullish case, is that maybe Bitcoin has bottomed out at 60, maybe 60,000 is the bottom out according to the price and we just need to chop it.
just sideways continuously for how long? The next 6 months, the next 7 months, the next 8 months, just stay here and there to collect maximum liquidity. Yes, a long time ago I told you all that there was a possibility that we, uh, we would do something like this again, like this over and over again.
Can it be layered? No way.
But yeah, it's like this, it's like this continuously until ee until the 4th quarter, then we can make a new all time, yeah.
Because especially if I draw, for example, the all-time high of yesterday's cycle and the all-time high of yesterday's cycle, the range, yes, we have entered the range that we expected before Bitcoin fell, which was the Bitcoin bottom, yes. So is this decline short-lived? So it's just like this.
After that, we went up, then down, then up, then down until 2027. Hopefully, because of that, it won't be very difficult to project prices and what will it be called?
What will that do? Making the rest of this market is not fun, huh? But what can the argument be done? It can be talked about, it can be thrown out. If this boredom is what is needed to lighten this market, it is full of real things.
issue majority of retail for ee what is it called? The majority of tourists will be expelled from cryptoet, and the remaining ones in the fourth quarter, regardless of the price, regardless of the increase or decrease, will only be those who are resilient. Yes, that is the biggest question that we have to answer, ee, that Bitcoin has to answer, yes, which we will see together, yes. Besides, if we talk about the short term, there is a lot of evidence, or some evidence, that we might see an upward correction in Bitcoin before continuing downward. That's what I just said too. There's a possibility that we'll just chop like this. So maybe we're like this, it's just that ranging takes a really long time. still yes. There is a possibility that Bitcoin will rise first before falling into a recession due to the correlation between Bitcoin and the software market. Yes, I never discussed this between the main channel and the second channel because we never delved into the traditional market too much.
But there's a chart I got from YouTube and it's a comparison between the software or software index, IGF, and BTC, and it turns out that it reflects 1 to 1, or almost, it reflects 1 to 1, at least for the macro trend. If the software goes up, Bitcoin goes up, if the software goes down, Bitcoin goes down for 8 months, its sideways trend is also reflected here. So if it's old sideways, this is also old sideways.
Even if you make an all time high or make any distribution, this also makes distribution. If it goes down, it will also cause a deep decline. Well, you can see here and here deeper, deeper. So, this is just one chart that you can use to increase your confidence in whether Bitcoin is going up or down. Why? because the IGF on this hem line has created a local top that is higher than the one expected and Bitcoin is performing a divergence, where Bitcoin is going down and the IGF is going up. So, is this the question Astra's Insights asked, will Bitcoin catch up? So, does it just shoot high up or does the software have to pull back down? Yes, in my opinion, it would be more logical for Bitcoin to rise if it still follows a 1 to 1 ratio. Why?
because of what we will see, which we will discuss in the next segment, yes, in charting. But this is what we have said many times. What we're looking for in this range is for Bitcoin to print its weekly cycle low. And what we have said many times, after the weekly cyclone is confirmed, whether it is up here or better down here, yes.
But whatever the price is after the weekly cyclone is confirmed, we can expect a bigger pump than the price here. Yes, according to me, I always said before this pump, don't worry too much, don't expect too much, don't expect too much because the weekly cyclone hasn't arrived yet. But after the weekly cyclone has arrived, whatever the price we can expect, we can only expect a higher pump towards 90 or 100.
RIB.
Hotel Crypto said, "Hot, Bitcoin not falling already means it's strong." Then he said, "What else if he keeps linking to what? The US military bombing Iran."
Yeah, the funny thing is he posted the fiat USD Dixi Index. He said that if Bitcoin doesn't fall, it means it's strong.
You can watch the last live stream to see where my opinion lies. The more people who have a bullish view on the market, the higher the chance of it reversing. But what I want to tell you all is diction, okay? Regarding diction. Why? Because of the diction we always have the view that this will rise to the top to reset all the markets. Why? Because when everyone is afraid, they are too lazy to play the market or they don't know what to do, right? eh, I do n't know what to invest in anymore because everything is going down. They will all invest in Dixi. This is something we always talk about on this channel where I expect the diction to go up and back up again, maybe or maybe more, I don't know. After that, it bottoms out and then goes back down again to start the next bull market cycle. And what did you see at the beginning, is this war going to start or accelerate the recession? Will this war start the pump for downward diction?
Will this war bring all prices down? Oh, Bitcoin is at 72, right?
72600. Okay, last news, before we get into charting, Binance will be launching US Stock Trading for non- users. Yes, this news is not that deep, but I just wanted to let you all know. Uh, number one is if you hear this news, uh, in a bull market, we are prone to joking, we are prone to making jokes, making jokes that it is a top signal. Moreover, the one who released this news is the first market manipulator, the biggest market manipulator, the biggest crypto market manipulator, namely Binance. Will [laughs] signal top signals for stocks too?
Yes, if stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down too. So it's the same. Is Binance launching a US Stock? The logic is because many people can now trade stocks with leverage.
Will the liquidation get thicker? What is it called? stop hunt will be more frequent and will the market immediately fall from here because if you don't know Bitcoin dump or start to be market because of Binance, if I'm not mistaken where is this, if I'm not mistaken maybe you forgot, but it seems like this is because of Binance, I forgot what, but if I'm not mistaken they issued financial or something, they issued Black Rock, even issuing ETFs went down, so what about Binance? Yes, and the funny thing is when like Maxi, Bit Unix, Gate IO, exchanges smaller than Binance issued stock trading which you can still use until now, it didn't affect the market. Once Binance releases anything, we always make Leluon our top signal. What's interesting is the incident. Will it happen? I do n't know. And honestly, I don't really care because what we want to see is the low before it pumps back up.
Come on, now let's get into charting.
Okay, let's go straight to the lower time frame since you've already seen the higher time frames, whether monthly, weekly, or daily. Now I want to focus on this part and I want to give you the perspective that Bitcoin is once again dumping downwards towards what we want to see, what we want to look for, which is a maximum weekly cycle low. What I said yesterday, it was on June 12th. June 12th, if we are still ranging here and there is potential for us to go straight up.
Yes, there is great potential. Not just potential, huge potential if we immediately go up. If you go further down in the range, that's even better. If it goes down outside the range, it will be bad. Our Count is ruined. But it's still valid, right? Still valid but counte.
Then we're late again in the cycle. If there is no further decline within this range, expect a super high rise. Okay, so this weekly cyclone is still temporary and you can see Bitcoin is back up to 72,600 now. Back again to taking the swing that was done eh that was printed in the last few days. It's not that important to us, it's not that important to me either. What's important to me is whether Bitcoin has been... I just wanted to say, has Bitcoin been... eh what's it called? Break down from the uptrend. And it seems like yesterday, where was the last support? By the way where is the last support? Yesterday, he seemed to be supportive, huh? Here you can see for yourself. What is this box called?
We've been drawing this yellow box since last week, or rather, yes, last week, but at the beginning of last week, after I returned from vacation, it was the last support for BTC, and I said that as long as it's still supported, as long as Bitcoin is still being traded here, it's safe. And you can see the proof, okay? And this is the box I haven't changed since I came back from vacation. You can watch the first time I shared this on members. High wig up. The high W rising upwards indicates the buy area.
Marks the supply area below here. Going up, it turns out the price can't go up much, huh?
And now we get a red candle down. Will BTC run out and roll over downwards? As we have said. Hey, like we said, let's take the fractal from here to here. Because of fractals. Why do we take the fractal from here to here? Because these two drives before going down are very similar to these two drives before going down. Have I told you yet?
I should have already. And if we compare it to this, we expect the lower target to be taken. At least 65 were taken. Even if the fractals are not the same or if the fractals are only like this, at least 65 is made into a week. Yes, I have to let you all know that this decline is actually longer than the previous declines.
If Bitcoin wants to do ee what is it called? the decline towards his third swing yeah. Because the first swing was quite aggressive, the second swing was quite aggressive too. Sorry, wrong. The first swing was quite an aggressive decline, yes. Both swings are also quite aggressive.
We expect the third swing to be aggressive, too, because that's what we've always seen in the Bitcoin market, and it was here in 2017 and 2022 as well. But for this second swing, the decline isn't that sharp. So, there are two things that could happen: this is either a setup before it goes up even further, or it's a setup to take the last bit of liquidity, perhaps a final pump up before it's dropped back down.
Because why? Because what we know and what we have discussed is the stochastic RSI for weekly.
Well, okay. Stockastic RSI for weekly and DS Breet indicates we will go down. Because in SS, it's not just that it's going to cross weeks away, at most it's 1 week away from the cross and the weekly stock RSI has also signaled a cross. So, if you want to come, according to RSI, the movement will look like this. It should be like this to reset back to over sold to be bought back towards maybe towards the 3rd quarter or maybe just slowly go down until September or October. I also still expect that in the middle here, yes, in the stock market members will know first. So it's a bit interesting, what's the name of this? This is reverting, this is crossing. What kind of movement is that?
What was your last cross like? Like this.
Last time I crossed like this. And you should know that in the SS Breet Daily that we often discuss, it comes once or the cross comes once every about mm, sorry for the cross above. From top to bottom, it's often done. But if it's from top to top, it's about once every 60 days.
Once every 40 to 60 days. Weekly at SS Cross from top to top it comes about once every 6 months, once every 9 months, yeah. So if you want to cross, this is the last day of July and soon it will be July so it will be a year. So, if we want to cross, we really need to be wary of price movements.
So it does look bearish macro, but that's the market, right? That's always what we say. So there's no change from there. But for the micro, once again it's still not clear. But the breakdown from the last BTC support, even though the breakdown is only small, can be reversed back up, but the breakdown from this trend line is indeed quite negative. So what we expect is a decline towards once again, never changing, a decline towards 65. What's even sadder is perhaps for the bullish ones, what's even sadder is that Bitcoin continues to fall, falls, falls, falls, weakens. Let's look at the stock price, it's getting higher and higher. What else should you expect? It is what it is, huh?
And as we've already mentioned, stocks, because they haven't entered the market yet, can't be compared to Bitcoin's movements, which have. So, each asset has its own bare market time and what and price projection, price prediction. Coincidentally, only Bitcoin has entered the market, the others have not. Yes, that's the logic, what's it called? The approach. The approach can't be, "Oh, this is already a market, everything should go down." You can't think, you can't equate, for example, the IHSG with the SP even though they are both indexes.
Okay, finally, before we end, eh, sorry, gold stocks. How about gold?
It seems to have confirmed the weekly low, it seems to have.
It seems like it's because of what? Because this will be retested soon and if the retest is successful, we can break out upwards with a violent breakout, yes, upwards.
That means it could have an explosive breakout to the upside. So, if the weekly has been confirmed and we are just waiting for confirmation of this breakout, there should be a setup for you to open here. Yes, maybe some of you are immediately asking why the weekly low is here? Why is it like normal? It seems like there's nothing special about it. That's gold, yeah. So once again the approach for each asset is different.
You can see the weekly low, the weekly low is not like a dump, a dump.
Just ordinary, just like what? It's like it's hidden in the daily cycle low. So if the weekly low is already in, there will be another daily cycle low on June 10th.
So you might have to shop until you get there before going upstairs.
Anyway, it seems like it, it seems like now at least my cycle will have to be extended to the back later. E, it seems from the gold price cycle theory, the commodity price will be fine because the lows have been caught many times. And very often, if we see the low being recorded repeatedly, it is prone to not making another low, let alone a weekly low.
It's prone to not making another low, but instead higher lows. Maybe there's a recession or maybe not, it doesn't really matter to me. But the point is, the weekly cycle low that will come later in November will be the bare market low for gold, for everyone. So, coincidentally, maybe I'll just remind you that we have bare market lows, or we have weekly cycle lows or bare market lows, the last one was around November to December for each asset, also for each major asset class.
So, I expect the recession to come from this area, leading to a decline in this area. It's also exactly what we want to see for Dixi, it's also exactly what we want to see for the oil. Go down 1 2 months, give 1 2 months then enter recession. It's also exactly what we want to see for the US Bond Markets.
Yes, it's that simple, the hard part is that we have to wait longer to see the recession come.
And once again, Ressing will not be confirmed. We have to confirm it. There's no way tomorrow Jerome Paul, oh Jerome Paul won't be there. Tomorrow Kevin Wors said, "Guys, we are in a recession. We are so cooked." It's impossible to say something like that. So we have to use our judgment. We have to be sure ourselves, we have to be sure from within our own hearts. If so, everything will go down, okay? This is not the time for us to buy assets, okay?
Okay, that's enough of what I want to say for today. If you learn something, you will definitely learn something, right?
Leave a like, okay? Don't forget to click like, don't forget to click subscribe, don't forget to click share. Share with everyone you know.
Now I take it.
Sorry. Now I'm giving you all some time for Q&A. So, if you have any questions, please ask in live chat. Here, in front of my eyes, in front of your eyes. This is live chat. this is live. If you want to ask, please do so and I can answer your questions live too.
Okay, this is still English, right? Why do n't you know English? Can I translate the page? Ca n't speak English? Okay then. Okay, let's take it down first. Koh weekly cycle in October 2025 makes the market reversal from up to down. Weekly cycle from up to down October 2025. Oh, this one, huh?
Yes. Okay.
Eh, and this May is also like that. Is the theory different? So the theory is that the move after the weekly cycle in a bull market is a reversal, but the weekly cycle in a B market is down. This is something I've covered in the weekly cycle and daily cycle. No mistake, I've covered this in cycle theory, eh breakdown yes in members. So, simply, very, very easily, in the bowl market weekly cycle, it cannot be invalidated in the bare market. The weekly cycle will be invalidated towards the next weekly cycle. That's very easy.
I've broken down the length and width of the lowest tier members.
So you don't need to, you don't need to, you don't need to pay too much.
And later I will give it to the public while I'm here so that all of you understand the cycle before we go through this bull market.
Why did this go down straight away? Because this is because the weekly cycle immediately fails.
This indicates be market. So, according to the market cycle, it starts here, not above. According to cycle f it is here. But obviously you all can see it with your eyes, right? If so, the decline starts from here. But according to this cycle from here why? Because of that time, yeah. At that time the weekly cycle was still being maintained.
There is still an increase that is still there is still potential for it to go up. But clearly not. And once we confirm that oh yes, from here to the end, that will be the Bitcoin market, that's what we do in stocks, by the way, if you don't know, so we expect the weekly cyclon to come in which month, I forgot again. If I'm not mistaken, it was on the 28th of May 2026 here.
Ah, forgot. I think it's this area too. But after this we expect failure. So it will start the bare market. But it turns out not to be.
It turns out that the weekly cycle actually raises prices even higher, creating a bull market.
Not creating a new bull market, but continuing the existing bull market.
We thought yesterday that it would be February or March, then March, then March to April, we thought something like this would come.
It turns out there's nothing you can do. It is what it is.
Why do you want to ask if Zau gold means there is still a chance of it going up? That's what we just discussed.
It's already November, if you save it in rupiah it will turn to dust first. Not yet to buy assets. If you still save your money in Rupiah, there's nothing wrong with that at all. There is nothing wrong at all.
The point is, are you ready to see the rupiah fall every day? I do n't think so. Yes, and since I first created the Ko Crypto channel, I have always been the biggest advocate. Buy crypto or any other assets, don't do it on local exchanges.
Many people say that local exchange is easy. Withdrawals from local exchanges are easy. There are various reasons for local exchanges.
Yes, I always say that using dollars is superior, far, far, far superior to rupiah. Number one, if you do it like this, you win, right? Number two, now there are various withdrawals and so on. Number three is the reason I emphasized a long time ago, in 2024. Check your local exchange rate, dollar to rupiah, or convert it from, say, Bitcoin to 60,000 RIB.
Ee for example Bitcoin R0.000 and R0.000 for example at that time it was still sem ya. At that time, it was still SM, it was easy. Okay. In your local exchange, wherever you are, it is 1.03.
Suppose it is increased by 3%. 3% even though it doesn't seem big, it's not big, but the transaction is 3% here. After that, you pay a fee of around 0.75%, which is normal for local exchanges, or maybe 0.25 or 0.50 for Indodax. This adds quite a lot.
So, even if you only see 0.5%, 0.25, 0.375 for the fee, you also pay the exchange rate and then you also pay this exchange rate. Not good. Very very very bad. That's what I think the first time I created a channel, what did I say? Hey, yeah, I'm telling you all, I only have one exchange and that's the only exchange when I want to withdraw from a foreign exchange to a local exchange to a bank account. But now there are also those who directly exchange money from abroad directly to bank accounts.
[snort] Has Indonesia started Q? I won't tell you anymore, you guys don't even know. But that's why we're seeing high inflation, in my opinion, it's a combination of Qi and MBG, in my opinion, plus MBG, but in my opinion, they're smart.
They focus more on MBG so that people will flock to MBG. But actually Indonesia is already Q, right?
Indonesia borrowed hundreds of trillions, if I'm not mistaken, from China. Borrow quotation marks.
Borrow quotation marks.
Hey, why the weeklist earlier? Already.
[snorts] Eh, hyper liquid. Hyper Liquid just made a new all-time high yesterday. Look at that. 73. Wow. I don't expect to make an all-time high in the market.
But here we are quite good.
Why is that? How about short hyper liquid? Don't short it, guys. Don't short it, okay? Why short it? I said it many times. As long as Hyper Liquid continues its uptrend, there's no need to short.
You want to look for technical shorts, not just short, okay? Just short because you have a feeling it will go down. Don't, don't, don't.
Just like stocks, right? Share. If you want to shorten it now, in my opinion, what are you guys doing now? It will be difficult on its own.
Why does the US continue to prolong the war while America itself has high inflation? Is it on purpose to be able to Qi?
Correctly. Correctly. I think it's like that. But inflation is high, yes. But if the war continues to be prolonged, eh, I honestly don't know why, because in the end there will be war, even if there isn't a war, they have to fight, right?
But I don't know, honestly I do n't know. Don't know at all.
Antou said why the lab token keeps going up without any correction or anything like rave d. [laughs] [gasps] Yeah. So the lab was also busy yesterday.
Yesterday I think my friend also gave me one.
You can see it, okay? Ee this keeps going up. If there is an increase this high, the pullback will also be very, very deep. For example, in 1 day in a few hours this lab is not even in a few hours. 15 minutes maybe 30 2 hours du in 2 hours lab directly corrected 16%.
[snorts] Is this going to be like a rave? I think so.
Just waiting to see who gets angry. [snort] Once again, don't short coins like this, but wait for a technical break down.
Nglong entry masuk ngong entry for gold thin-thin. Please, you can, you can. Please. Information for shorting later. There is a time to short but now I don't think so. Nothing has broken down yet, Guys.
What do you want to shorten? If you guys want to go short, I'll give you some potential shorts, okay? Because there are some coins that really seem very weak.
For the past few days, Ethereum has been unable to return above 2000. Yes, it's incredibly sad. Some people say, "Yes, don't worry. This is still supported. This is still supported." But lastly Etherium quotes supported this also broke.
Yes, the last time it was supported in a bull market was probably here. This is also broken.
If you're at the market, don't expect too much of my taste. If it's a bear market, then we're in a bear market.
My target is to come back here at the end of the year. If it can go to three digits, amen, if not, 1.3, what's the best? The absolute minimum for this. If you want to short it, please go ahead. Solana is also incredibly weak. That's so weak, I'm sorry.
Double trendline invalidation if you know you know. Just like Bitcoin, right?
But don't worry, this is being supported. This is also supported.
There was a lot of support, but all of them failed because we are in a bear market. We are currently in a technical market.
Apart from that, nothing is shorted at all. Don't short anyone first. Don't short any old coins first. For Bitcoin, I think you should go ahead and short it. But you have to confirm daily first. If we get a daily candle below 72, I think that's a pretty good sign. Because we've talked about it before, eh, what we just talked about, meaning the last BTC support has been broken and where will it be supported? Want to be supported here.
Mm, in my opinion, this is the one with the greatest liquidity.
My feelings went straight down. I think it's going straight down. Moreover, if I'm not mistaken, yesterday's liquidation, if I'm not mistaken, we'll see the liquidation, right? Coin glass.
Yesterday we saw that the bottom liquidation was empty or not? Try correcting me if I'm wrong.
This one is empty, right? So from Oh yeah that's right. From 69 to 65, there was no liquidation. So it should just snap down like this. And the biggest liquidation is down here. Cluster, sorry, the biggest cluster is down here, namely in the 64 62 areas here. They have been opening longs since the earliest one was in February, so that's February. But the earliest short ones have reached here, but the earliest short cluster only opened in the third month, at the end of the third month. So people were looking for shorts up here when the price was here and until now it still hasn't been taken out. But the people who opened long positions were the ones who opened them as early as February, and at the end of February, there were also new ones who had opened them since February, that's the short position. But for altcoins that are currently at their peak, I think I should wait until a technical breakdown. If the USD doesn't rise now, will the rupiah get worse? I already said that in the previous comment.
So, this is this, this is this from the members, one of my members asked before, if I'm not mistaken, before May. Someone asked why the rupiah is currently at 16, if I'm not mistaken?
Eh, I don't know. I think I'm still around 17. I don't know. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. The rupiah is still at this level.
The rupiah is already at this level. It's already like this, he said how much in rupiah.
Why is it getting lower against the dollar?
Will it get any lower? And I answered that person in Members that as long as America doesn't implement QE, the rupiah will continue to fall.
And I actually expected it to drop this much. Yes, you'll be 18 soon, guys. 18,000. Imagine.
Why is the logic why? Because just imagine Indonesia, I'm a square, so I'll imagine it as Indonesia. Suppose these boxes are Indonesia and America.
Here are the dollars, okay? This is fiat currency, rupiah versus dollar. Okay, what is this?
Qe by the way guys, maybe you only know money printers. Where do you really turn it on? That's Q. Qi increases the money supply in the country. This means that the value is getting weaker.
That's why the rupiah is not going down but is going up. Just imagine, normally if the rupiah does Qi or its value goes down. The value of the dollar is also falling.
Stable.
We have the rupiah, even though the dollar is used more everywhere, we have the rupiah which is slowly inflating but not rising like this. So, now just imagine if the value of the rupiah fell and the dollar wouldn't feel any better. And this is what we feel, where the rupiah is experiencing inflation, the dollar is not. So it looks like hyper inflation, it looks like inflation is inflation plus. But actually it's not because of the dollar.
That's all actually.
[clears throat] 722 yeah, Guys, yeah. Wow, down 400 silver. Not silver or dollars.
What about Zau? Earlier we discussed how this 5-month installment queue is possible, right? Can. Please. Bro, Ko, what are the parameters or logic for determining your early late cycle?
So, I don't really like early or late cycles.
Why? Because of that, eh, the only number one is that I didn't tell the public, I only told the members. But number two, why do n't I like it? That's because the count seems so off. Although the theory says that we will, if we are allowed, late cycle, early cycle.
What is late cycle? Suppose it's like this. How many days from daily cycle to daily cycle? Example 60 days. It should be 60 days. After that, Charles Ner, who created the cycle theory, said e was plus or minus 10 days. So eh 10 days plus minus 10%. So if we add 10% to 60 days, that's 6 days. So 6 days here should be the maximum. This is the maximum. How about late cycle? Late cycle means outside of this.
But if it's outside this, count from this daily cycle low to the daily cycle low.
Because some people still think this is here, yeah. There are still some who force it here. But if you count, this is already day 77, or 60 days. Not plus minus 10% but plus minus 25%. is it really that big? If it's like this, it feels like it's just random, in my opinion, it feels like oh, just put this on the next low, okay? There is some truth in it, there is some truth in it, but our count is like this and it doesn't change. But if we talk about other assets, oh there are a lot of early late cycles. This is early, this is early, if I'm not mistaken, this is a bit late, this is early too. This is really early, huh?
This weekly cycle is very early, 1 month early. But for Bitcoin, I always make it consistent for 60 days fixed. You can also count from here to here 60 days, here to here 60 days, 60 days, 60 days. You can check, you can back test from here to here also 60 days. It's just right when it comes down to the bottom, up and down again, down here, there's this, how come how many days have there been? 56 yes, it is still within tolerance from here to here 60 days also this is also the same as that late cycle like that 72 200 yes it is what it is okay a few more questions because it is already the 55th minute of SMP and NAST it still hasn't gone down because it hasn't entered a recession. Is that true? to be more precise, they haven't entered the market yet. Recession is also true, but it is more about entering the market. It hasn't entered the market yet. Because of what? You can see for yourself where the market started?
Be marketnya start there is no huh? There is no be market because it has not entered the be market, that's why it hasn't come down yet.
We already discussed this in the news segment. If this is very similar to the fractal from 1992 to not 1992, ee 1996 if I'm not mistaken until 2000, that is, once it goes down it immediately shoots down like this. That's what I hope, yeah.
But no matter what, whether it goes down because of a recession or down because of a recession, there will definitely be one, but what I mean by going down is if it goes down like this or it crashes straight away because of a recession, what will the market be like? like eh [groans] classify it like that. It's like we'll box it up later.
In fact, it's even more difficult to find a market because there's no weekly cycle low, or there's nothing printed above. So technically, guys, technically, according to cycle cycle theory, yes, shares have to fall below here before we can stamp the market here, OK? This is cycle theory, yes.
That's why it seems to make more sense if we get something like this and just snap it down.
So, is there no technical market, but it's straight into a technical recession?
How about the JP? No problem at all.
Gasp.000 relax yeah.
Ee ready all inin 60 6,700 6,700 messed up. 67,000, I think.
If BTC's last weekly cycle is hit.
6,700 is a mess, huh?
6,700 is a mess, huh? I'm all in the same village, yeah. I sold the people at the same time to go all in at 6700. The SMP 500 and Nasd shares haven't been there yet. Already. What are your views on Michael Bay? Michael Burry short Nvidia sama Palenter. Then for long coin sand, is it okay or not? Michael Berry long coin sand. I do n't think so. This is the second question, yes. [laughs] Michael Burry long coins the world will end, yeah. How about Michael Burry short Nvidia and Palenter? Eh, I don't really care.
How can I not like the long coin sign? Was US O 104 first? Don't know and don't really care. Miss MS is selling whose goods, MS, why is it so hyped?
How? It's already 72, the rise is crazy, the cap has overtaken DO Kees. Yes, what I said, ah, I haven't mentioned it here, what I said, what I said yesterday, I made a post about it. Yesterday I made a post with a picture like this. This is scary. Blackberry by the way. Blackberry HP yes. It used to be proud of Matic Near Ave tha nicknamed the toughest coin until the people who sold it were cursed. I sold near first in the previous cycle I was cursed at by guys using the Indodux forum. in the forum. We used to use our forums before, or when Twitter was still small, it seems like it was finished, eh, before that, or NFTs, the reality is that every cycle has a winner, and this is important, just pray that the winners in the next cycle don't replace the winners in this cycle.
Winners in the next cycle do not replace winners in this cycle.
What are the winners of this cycle? There's hype, maybe TRX, BNB, especially Solana.
Solana didn't win, but it's still a bit okay, it turns out she's the winner of this cycle. But let's just pray that the winner of the next cycle doesn't replace the winner of this cycle because if it does, the chart will look like this. That's what we see now for DO. DO was the winner of the previous cycle who was slowly replaced by the winner of this cycle. Look at the price do closer to what you think will make a new all time high or closer to the Blackberry chart in the year yes in the 2000s. Come on, reference this chart to each of your favorite old coins. Because I'm really depressed.
I see that Matic does n't have Matic anymore, it seems like they've changed their name. Is this still available? Oh my God. Eh, they changed the name to Paul for what? The decline is not visible. So that the decline is not visible. Imagine them changing their names. Let's try going to CMC.
Hey, wait a minute.
Hey, wait a minute, guys.
No way. No way. The charts are also only cut to here. But I'm really, really sad.
Here it is.
Back to this chart. That's sad. But this is the reality, Guys.
If successful, the currently hyped altcoins will follow the price of the previous hype coin cycle and die. That's why I said the 99 old coins will go to zero because of what? The most hyped one in yesterday's cycle was AV. Let's see, even the most hyped AV in the last cycle can't be hyped or there is potential for it to not be hyped in this cycle. What's hyped in this cycle has potential, there's a chance it won't be hyped in the next cycle, and it'll continue like that.
I wanted to name it UFO but UFO doesn't exist anymore. It seems like I've already lost out. Teta near near how? Near? It recently went up, right?
Yes, it's going up, but just look at this.
Sad huh? Sad.
Okay, finally.
Most of my savings are in USDT.
Even if you shop for daily necessities, use a buyit card. Hmm.
like a debit ATM card that deducts USDT balances, it can be used to shop for food on Shopee and so on. Huh, really?
That's not a question. But for example, if the USD dixi has not gone down to the bottom, maybe BBCA Middle School. [laughs] BBCA I'm curious.
Yikes. [laughs] [gasps] Ai mama mia ya enakos guys. Bitcoin 72 pas. It is what it is, huh?
It is what it is. 72 fits. I just got a notification on my BUix cellphone. [laughs] Bitcoin has fallen below 72k. This is what I said. Last bitcoin support if GGs breaks. GG. This means that local exchanges now don't directly mark up, but indirectly mark up, just check it yourself, guys. Please explain why it is more recommended to use USD, while we, the Indo DCA, use rupiah. No no no. So, it's easy to see it like this. Whether you want to use IDR or USD, it's actually the same. It's not the same now, but it was the same before. It used to be the same. Why? Because you guys are exchanging fiat, it's okay, mm, what's it called? No profit.
No profit at all. Maybe ask your parents, maybe if you are in your 20s, 30s, ask your parents. Long ago, people used to collect dollars for what? Let them think they can exchange it for rupiah, then they think they can get rich, right?
that never happens in their lifetime as long as they collect billions of dollars, maybe they can, but if they have billions of dollars, they are already rich, they never catch up, why? Because Fiat is always pegged, everything is pegged to the same, everything is pegged to the same, inflation, ee, inflation rates in different countries are different. Indeed, Indonesia is one of the countries whose economy is getting worse and worse. But that's also one of the reasons, where can you see what? See you guys can be encouraged to take eh foreign fiat currency. But why is it marked up? That's why they can make a profit, right? So it's easy like this, Uncle. I think I also posted a tweet yesterday, because yesterday I wanted to buy dollars.
Here he is, here he is, here he is. I captioned that I want to deposit from rupiah, it's already this much.
So, yesterday I wanted to buy dollars, I wanted to deposit dollars, the rupiah was already marked up super high and if you kept saying, you kept saying, why is that a foreign exchange?
External exchanges will definitely increase the markup.
This isn't just an external exchange, guys. This is normal business practice. Now I want all of you who have a local exchange, you try to convert 72,000 Rupiah, the current price of Bitcoin, to 71,900 Rupiah now to Rupiah. I guarantee it, I guarantee it is absolutely higher than the actual value. And if you can, what rupiah figures can you use for this one, the live one. And that's also what's it called, ee, what does this also become? So the issue is because the Indo exchange, the local Indo exchange doesn't need to see 179800 eh 980 or lower. If they come down tomorrow, they won't be so particular or so. They don't need accuracy. They just want to maintain 179 or 178 or 17 yesterday 177 or so.
They can take eh profit from here.
They also take profit from fees and they also take profit from withdrawals. If I'm not mistaken, there's a 1.5% withdrawal fee, if I'm not mistaken, it's like that. So, so ee this one is nothing new, Guys.
You can check it yourself. I've been talking about this since 2024. 2024.
2024. So if it's already like that in 2024. Now I don't think it's ever changed. It never changes. Why? Because it's profitable like that. Because it's profitable.
Sailor has sold. Just a moment. Seriously?
As for you, I think I'm suspicious. Hopefully it's not suspicious. Prabowo.
Okay.
I'm literally shaking.
Huh.
[gasp] Yesterday [laughs] sailor posted this. Everyone said, "Oh, it finally went up. AK because they wanted to buy." Because they want to buy again. No, they don't sell.
[laughs] Only 32, 2.5 million, right? But it's not important. The sales sailor indicates that their company is illiquid. Their company will do anything, will do anything to continue making profits. Yes, it doesn't matter where Bitcoin's price is, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin goes up or down tomorrow. The point is, if the investors are happy, the company is happy, Michael Saang, they will sell. Yes, and this is proof that yesterday, it was not nonsense, what we discussed a few weeks ago, that Michael Saer was going to sell. It is what it is, huh? It is what it is. What can we do about it. It is what it is.
[laughs] It is what it is. Terraal Luna Vibes.
Not really. No, no. No, it's not that bad. No, it's not that bad. It's not that bad.
Luna's terror was really bad. Luna's terror is like Binance collapsing tomorrow. No, it's not that bad.
It is what it is, huh? It is what it is.
32 a little bit but yeah. Du R 2,500 is a little bit huh. But what is the sentiment behind ee? What are they behind?
they sell, that's more important. Just go straight down and gap it.
Yes, the trust was immediately lost in my opinion. Trust is what's important. It's his trust that's more important.
Actually, they only sell very little. But Michael Saud has already said it. He already said he would sell. And this is the first proof since 2022. What happened in 2022, guys? BM good. In fact, in 2022, I'll give you some context. This is a bit old, but in 2022, I'll give you a little context. Michael Sa was forced to sell, if I'm not mistaken, in this area. I forgot where I am.
Why? Because of Bitcoin, this sailor was so low that he was almost kicked out of what? He was kicked out by the directors of his own company which he created as CEO, which he founded. I'll repeat it once more. Michael Sailor, the CEO at that time, was almost removed from his position as CEO and from his directors because Michael Sailor didn't sell Bitcoin. because the Bitcoin he collected since this cycle is a loss at a loss, right? And in the end it wasn't released. In the end, it's only passed down from the CEO and this is real, if I'm not mistaken, to the CFO. Eh no, no, no no eh what is it? To the officer if I'm not mistaken. Just an ordinary officer. I don't know, the main thing is that he was just demoted, not completely dismissed. But the vibes are similar, right?
Terra Luna not really, but the vibes are similar if they are already tired they can't hold it anymore if there is a loss back down whether the projection will go down further we don't know the point is we want to see the weekly cycle low confirmed in the near future and then we see a high shoot up never seller bitcoin I'm curious eh sailor What is the seller's position?
Uh, micro strategy, Bitcoin holdings.
Let's check the MSTR Matrix.
How many have they lost now?
Where did they buy it? How much did they lose?
Micro strategy lost 22 not that much to be honest. 20 32 sorry cycle fury. Oh no?
How much have they lost?
How much is the average price? Micro strategy, Bitcoin average price now. 73,000. Hey, it's not that bad, is it? It's not that bad.
Bitbow yeah. Bitbow at just 73,000. 73.5 isn't that bad.
Break even, okay? Let's take a break, okay? Here it is. It's not that bad. It's not that bad.
Is it true that sailer shares pay 12% dividends every month?
12% per month. Mess.
There are quarterly and yearly ones. Where there is 12% every month. What are you 12% per month?
So crazy. Weekly cycle confirmed on June 15, OK? I think we've already looked for confirmation. BTC micro strategy average is 75600, this is 73, right?
Because they have already bought some new Bitcoins and Bitcoins.
Eh, the average here is 75. Oh yeah, that's right, 75699. Is AI wrong?
[laughs] Sailor sailor, [grunts] [laughs] Guys. If you buy Bitcoin now, you are smarter than billionaires, yes, rather than literal billionaires, billionaires, yes.
Retail-type sellers. That's right. That's absolutely right. Why? because if you look at the yellow round boxes, they look like this.
Where is it like [clears throat] here, see the majority of yellow bulutan at the bow market, right? There's no B.
[laughs] There are a lot of these now, huh? Now there are many.
Because of cycle 1, I've already given up. Okay, cycle 2 is on. But instead, the more it goes down, the bigger it gets. Yeah, this is getting smart. But this previous cycle was a massive blunder. But once again, if you buy now, all in now, your average is still lower than Michael Sailer's. Imagine guys, this live stream is enough, right? This has already been done, there have been many intermezzos in this live stream. Thank you all so much for joining. Hope you guys learned something.
After this we have live members. Live members are the lowest tier. So stay tuned. E I will meet you again. Maybe tomorrow, maybe the day after tomorrow.
If there's nothing tomorrow. If the price goes up again tomorrow, I don't think it's necessary to go live. But if the price drops below tomorrow, we'll go live, okay? However, today, tomorrow, today and tomorrow there are live members. I want to say a few things.
There are several projects heading to the market towards the middle of this year towards the 3rd quarter that I want to tell you about. Other than that, thank you all so much for joining. Take care, have a good night.
See you guys.
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