Political vows to control global shipping lanes often ignore the complex market dynamics already driving prices down. El-Erian’s grounded analysis exposes the significant gap between campaign rhetoric and the nuanced reality of global energy economics.
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Trump VOWS to reopen Strait of Hormuz as oil price plunge
Added:Let's take a look at those energy prices because they are all the talk on Wall Street and Main Street right now. Uh Dow up 470 points today as oil prices continue to plummet. President Trump says ships are moving through the street of Hormuz and the traffic is picking up daily.
>> The ships are starting to move now.
We're going to have it fully open by Friday. The ships are starting to move nicely. the oil is starting to go and the uh prices are coming down rapidly.
Stock market is going up rapidly.
>> Let's bring in Alan's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Aler. Muhammad, thank you so much. What a critical moment you are joining us as we do see crude oil prices right now. Bottom right of your screen dropping below $76 a barrel.
First time we have seen this going back to March. Muhammad, this is a significant drop in oil prices. Does that mean we're going to see those gas prices come down too?
>> Yes, it does. I mean, it's amazing, Sandra. We were at 92 for um a barrel 5 days ago, and we're now below 76. That's a 20% decline. And what does that mean? It means the for the average American, the price of regular is going to dip below $4 a gallon for the first time since early March. And I suspect the price of diesel, which helps transport our food and other things, will dip below $5 for the first time also since March. So, it's good news.
>> I mean, I'm looking at the price of gasoline, and it's already been on uh the decline. Uh overnight, AAA reported $44 a gallon. You're predicting it's going to drop below $4.
You I look at the current situation and I I see what appears to be a lot of calm in the markets. um and satisfaction from what those market watchers have heard from this Iran deal. Although Muhammad, as we kick things off with Secretary Pompeo at the top of the hour, there are still a lot of details to this deal, we do not know. President Trump says he's going to read it out loud, but what details are you looking for and what what portion of the deal do we not know that could affect markets?
>> So, to my mind, Sandra, there's four uncertainties. One is the details and can there be agreement on the details?
Vice President JD Vance said there's still lots of details to work out. The second has to do with the third parties.
Will Israel go along? Will the Europeans help in demining the straits? How will other countries react? The third issue has to do with how quickly can we restore not just shipment but production. And we got good news out of Qatar. You know, they got hit hard at the beginning. We thought that they would be off production for about two years. We now have learned that they can bring half of it back within a month. So, there's still things to sort out, but I think overall it is good news. The markets are excited. They may be too excited because of SpaceX. That's up again today. But you know there's a very good mood right now in the financial markets and hopefully the economy will continue to pick up.
>> Yeah. And tollfree is what the white house has explained is happening. There will be no tolls and that is a permanent uh decision on the straight of Hormuz and talking to two senior uh administration officials yesterday.
Muhammad I was told while the number of ships passing through was a dozen for a little bit and moved up to 20 to 30 uh per day and in the coming days they say that number will be 40 to 50. uh return to normal would be 140. They said it's going to take some time to get there. Uh but we will certainly see. I want to end by asking you what all of this means big picture for interest rates. This greatly affects our economy here at home uh our housing market as well. This is the Wall Street Journal article on Kevin Worsh wanting the Fed to stop explaining everything. In Wars view, the central bank has buried itself in its own communication, produce forecasts that markets fixate on and that box the committee in. It says officials give speeches or interviews on every side of every equation. Worsh wants the Fed to say less and less let markets do more of the work. Well, markets are busy at work right now. So, what happens with those interest rates and what impact will Worsh have on the overall markets?
>> So, Chair Walsh is absolutely right. um that there we need to reform the communication by federal official and it's just part of a list of reforms that he intends to pursue at the central bank and that are long overdue. We will have an announcement tomorrow. He will have his first press conference tomorrow.
They won't do anything with interest rates. They won't cut interest rates tomorrow. They won't hike interest rates. They'll just wait. But there will be less hawkish than they would have been otherwise. And that's important for forward guidance. I think what we need to focus on, Sandra, in the short term are the reforms that the new chair intends to pursue because that's going to be key to our economic well-being longer term.
>> Yeah. Uh very interesting stuff. And I want to note that we're watching crude oil now drop to the lowest point it's been since this war started now as you were speaking, $75.82 a barrel as the market just seems to keep going up. I mean, I just keep noting, Muhammad, we never even saw a correction in the market, a full 10% drop from recent highs during this conflict. This American stock market has been incredibly resilient uh thanks to strong earnings and AI and others. Um Muhammad, always good to get you on. Thank you.
>> We'll look for that drop below $4, by the way, in gasoline. All right, be sure to like and subscribe for all the Fox News latest on YouTube and catch full shows streaming now on Fox One.
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