Time to short FedEx?

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:05]Hi everybody and welcome back to my weekly focus series in which I apply the tenants of structural valuation analysis to current stock and market conditions.

[00:00:17]My name is Ross Healey and I am the chairman of strategic analysis corporation an investment advisory company with a very unique take on the investment process. Today I'm going to show you a uniquely powerful feature of SBA and that is that it shows that the market has a memory. It's not by the way that this is a unique feature of the market itself.

[00:00:47]But there is no other market analysis system that is capable of being able to take advantage of this information as no other extent market analysis system is able to show so clearly, concisely and graphically.

[00:01:07]What's particularly valuable is that there are a number of stocks and groups which demonstrate this market memory characteristic. And if you are using SVA, you can not only see it yourself, but should also take advantage of the information for your own portfolio.

[00:01:32]Well, to cut to the chase, I'll show you what I mean. Let's take a look at the SVA chart of FedEx Corporation, specifically stretching back over the past 42 years.

[00:01:47]What do we see?

[00:01:49]Every time over the past 40 years that the stock has reached up to its superrossthrow price, that's the SG price right here. Look, it bang back here. It's hit there once, twice, three times, four times.

[00:02:06]five times, six times, and it's heading there again.

[00:02:14]Every time it's reached up there to its super growth price, or three and a half times adjusted book value, the stock has peaked out with dead precision, unable to advance any further. The last time FedEx got there, I decided to take a look at the insider trading on the stock and insider trading was hot and heavy the last time the stock got there. So, management of the company is not stupid, but they are not about to tell the likes of you and me.

[00:02:58]We can take our own chances in case.

[00:03:03]In case. In case what? Well, in 40 years, no one has ever discovered the in case possibility.

[00:03:14]Now, let's take a look at FedEx right now.

[00:03:23]And what do we see? The stock has broken out over its mid-growth price. That's 2 and 1/2 times book value and is heading I think for its super growth price once again and if so we will be able to invoke a nice short sale but we will wait and time our short sale right at the SGA price. Isn't that pretty? But this is not the only stock with a memory. Hey, Canadian Tire has a very similar kind of pattern. And the Canadian banks for all the time that we have followed it has been exhibiting the same kind of pattern. And I can tell you that beating the Canadian bank index is very very easy to do.

[00:04:29]For your information, I think that the US banks would have had a similar pattern except that they got really messed up in the mortgage meltdown 7 to nine and it's just getting back to their pattern once again.

[00:04:50]Anyway, I'm leaving you with a homework assignment.

[00:04:55]Trading FedEx in the coming weeks and months for fun and profit. In the meantime, have a good week and I will see you next weekend.

[00:05:08]Stay safe and as Bobby McFaren saying, don't worry, be happy.