The Stock Market is Insane Right Now (Here's Why!)

本站添加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]If you've been watching the market lately and thinking this feels a little off, I don't think you're wrong. In fact, there are several things happening right now that I find not just unusual, but actually alarming. And I want to walk you through exactly what they are, why they matter, and what I'm personally going to be doing about it. So, I want to start here because this is personal to me. We have a community here at Everything Money, real people, real investors, people just like you and I who are learning how to build wealth.

[00:00:27]And right now, this week, the number one topic, the most engaged conversation in our entire community is this. Should I be buying this market or should I sit out? And guys, it's not a new conversation, but boy has it gained a lot of steam as of late. And I want to read to you some of the actual things our members are saying because I think you're probably thinking the exact same thing. One of our members posted this.

[00:00:49]He said, "GP is at 2.3." That's the ratio of GDP to stock market GDP. is 131% overvalued. Fair value is 3118 based on history. Nothing is logical in today's market. And guys, you know what?

[00:01:04]He's not wrong about that. That stock market GDP indicator, which Warren Buffett has talked about publicly saying it's the most reliable metric of valuation at any given time, is flashing red right now. The market is trading at 131% above what the indicator has done for the last 100 plus years. That's a real number, guys. That is not some opinion. It's just fact. Now, the interpretation of it could change. I'm not going to dismiss any of that.

[00:01:31]Another one of our members, Nessim, is in our FOMO confessions channel. This is a way in which it's one of my favorite channels. The reason I love it so much is people are really honest in there.

[00:01:41]He's talking whether he should exit his whole portfolio. He's looking at the buffin indicator, the 10-year sickly adjusted PE ratio, and he's basically saying the data says to get out. And then you've got Baylor who's in our general chat saying, "If the Fed cuts rates, we're going to blow the top off."

[00:01:57]The fear out there makes complete sense.

[00:02:00]Guys, we're at record levels on many of these metrics. You got to remember that in 2000, the 10-year PE went to 44 and it took from 2000 to 2012, in that 12-ear period, the market was flat. And guys, I'm not going to dismiss what these guys are looking at. the Buffford indicator, the 10-year PE ratio. These are all real tools that real investors use. And in a few minutes, I'm going to pull those up and walk you through exactly what they're saying and why they have people worried. But first, let me walk you through what has been happening in the market because I think the context really does matter. First, SAS companies and SAS is software as a service. They've been absolutely crushed. Think about this like companies like Microsoft in it, Adobe, companies like that. They absolutely got hammered.

[00:02:44]Why? Well, there's a lot of fear of AI replacing them and that tanked their stock prices, some more than others.

[00:02:50]Some of them dropped well over 50% from their all-time highs. Now, there's a bigger question and this started spreading across the whole market.

[00:02:57]Companies like Meta, Amazon, and Google, they are spending insane amounts of money, billion, hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, data center, chips, power, all of it. And investors started asking a very reasonable question. Is this going to pay off? Is the hundreds of billions of dollars these companies that 10x spend that they're doing going to actually produce the returns that are needed in order to give a good return to people that own their company or are we presently watching the biggest spending bubble in tech history? Nobody has a clear answer and the market has felt that uncertainty. Then, and this is a big one, the NASDAQ dropped into full correction territory. That means it dropped more than 10% from its all-time highs. People were absolutely panicked.

[00:03:42]Headlines were everywhere. The AI bubble is popping. Tech is done. Iran war to drive up inflation. Get out now. You know what happened? The market recovered and it kept going. And today, today the NASDAQ is sitting more than 10% up year to date. All-time highs again. Now, to me, is that an indicator of we still have more room to go? I don't know.

[00:04:04]Because I tend to hang out with people who are valueoriented, who realize when you buy a stock, you're buying a piece of a business. But the people who panicked and sold at the bottom locked in their losses and then they watched the market rip right back past to where they sold. That's the pattern. Fear, drop, recovery, new highs over and over again throughout our recent history. And every single time the people who stayed in came out ahead of the people who try to be clever about it. Now guys, this is the stock market GDP indicator. This is Warren Buffett's most reliable metric at any given time. I have the data going back 401 quarters, which is 100.25 years. Okay, this goes back all the way before the Great Depression. And guys, we're currently at 132% overvalued.

[00:04:52]138.1%. Going back all the way in time.

[00:04:54]Now, first, before we go further, I do think there's a justification for higher valuations. Why? 100 years ago, if you want to make a lot of money, build a factory, hire a bunch of employees, invest a ton of money. As time goes on, I just heard recently the first oneperson billion-dollar company exists.

[00:05:10]That didn't exist a hundred years ago.

[00:05:11]So clearly when you're able to get higher returns on capital and you're able to make money that way, valuations probably will be a little bit higher.

[00:05:19]But how much higher, guys? Here's the scary part. This breaks it all down.

[00:05:25]Valuation levels from 30% or better undervalued all the way to 50% overvalued or worse. Guys, this goes back a 100red years. When we're 50% or more overvalued, the average 10-year return is negative -2.4%.

[00:05:42]Guys, we're 132% overvalued. This is at 50% or more, guys. It's going to be tough. It is the returns going to be bad. But the point here is not to scare you to say sell everything. It's to prepare you. I want you to be ready so that when you see the market fall 50 or 60%, you go, "Well, that makes us closer to our regular returns." And that's what we're expecting. You will not overreact when what is expected actually does happen. And the more you learn from these videos, the better you will be to do what's most important, not preparing for the fall, but jumping on the fall to profit significantly in the long run.

[00:06:17]That is what's key here. So, a question I've actually been surprisingly asking myself lately is, is it different this time? And these are obviously the most the four most dangerous words in investing. I I don't blame people. I asked the question. I'm like, you know, Tim, right before this video said, Paul, is it different this time? And I said, it sure feels like it, doesn't it? And that's okay. But I still ask everybody in the history of the world, when has it ever been different? At the end of the day, every investment is the present value of all future cash flows. So unless people permanently are okay with much much lower returns permanently not just for the next 10 years for the rest of life they're okay with four five 6% returns in the stock market that would have to be with interest rates being 0% forever and if if rates are 0% forever what does that do to inflation it can't go on so at some point it is not going to be different the question is when now guys the reason why guessing or looking at the timing and saying oh things are overvalued yeah things are overvalued Guess what? Things have been overvalued for a long time. Even when the S&P was at 3500, things were overvalued. But what happened? A bull market kept going and the fundamentals got better. What I want you to remember is you can't predict what is going to happen. We sat there and everybody said the second rates go up, the market's going to crash. And guess what? Rates started to go up in March, February, March of 22, they went from 0% to 5 and a half. And we had a bare market for about eight months. and then all-time highs and we've been surging since. Who would have predicted that? When rates skyrocketed, people were saying, "Oh my god, home prices are going to crash." They did the opposite. They skyrocket even further.

[00:07:54]Why? Because people weren't selling the houses. And we talked about this on our channel. The whole point is we don't know what's going to happen. You don't know what's going to happen. What I do know is even in overvalued markets, if you dollar cost average, even if it falls, you are going to pay better pricing. And somewhere down the road that will pay off big time. If all you care about is how you how rich you feel today, then yeah, I don't blame you for jumping in and out, but you're going to be less rich than you would be had you just stayed in. This has been proven time and time again. Look at the NASDAQ.

[00:08:29]If you had bought, if you'd started buying in the NASDAQ at the very peak in in March of 2000, it went on to lose 80ome percent 82 83%. But if you kept buying along the way, you know how much money you'd made today? 15% returns per year. In March of 2020, the world was shutting down. We had no idea what was going to happen. What people don't realize is the market bottomed before the world shut down. We only had 5,000 cases of COVID in March 23rd of 2020.

[00:08:59]And I believe the world shut down like a week or two later. That's when we all went into quarantine and the shutdown.

[00:09:04]So, literally the bottom happened before all that shutdown occurred. But what if people thought I made the mistake of saying, "This is gonna be a long bare market. This is gonna be awesome because the world is shutting down." And on March 23rd, if somebody had said, "Hey, in a week or two, we're entirely shutting down everything." They'd be like, "Oh my god, the S&P is going to go from 2100 down to 1,200." But it didn't happen. It's over triple that level today. So for most people watching this, and I mean the majority of people, the answer is very simple. Buy lowcost index funds or ETFs that match the market.

[00:09:33]That's it, guys. I do it every single month. something as simple as an S&P 500 index, a total market index, ETF, things like that. But do not stop investing.

[00:09:44]I've said this a thousand times and I'll say it again. If you invest consistency for consistently for decades, 30, 40 years, you are going to have millions of dollars. That is not hype. It's just math. Obviously, it depends on what you invest. But even my stepson who's trying to invest $500 or $1,000 a month that's always trying to invest. And I'm like I'm like, "Bro, at $1,000 a month, you're looking at having6 or $7 million when you retire." He's like, "What?

[00:10:08]Really?" I'm like, "Remember, it's not going to be six or seven million in today's dollars, but the point is it's a lot of money." The market has averaged around 10% per year historically. It's actually a little bit more than that.

[00:10:17]And at 10% a year, money doubles every seven years. So, you can start investing at 25, you retire at 65, that's 40 years. That's almost six doubles. At six doubles, you're at 64 times your money that you invest today. Now, I know what somebody here is watching is thinking because I've said it to myself. I've talked about how current valuations, we see lower returns over 10 years than what we've seen historically, and that's still true. Valuations are beyond stretched. And there's no way to dismiss that. But here's I want you to sit with.

[00:10:48]None of us have a crystal ball. Not me.

[00:10:50]Not the smartest fund managers on Wall Street. Nobody knows with certainty what the market's going to do next. But what I do know is this. The cost of being wrong about sitting out is enormous for most people. because the markets keep going up while you're waiting. And it very well might. You could very well miss gains that you can never get back again. But I want you to hear something from me because I'm being completely honest with you. I don't think the next 10 or 15 years are going to be good. I I would not be shocked if somebody if God came down right now and said, "Paul, for the next 12 years, returns with dividends in the S&P are going to be negative." I wouldn't be like, "What?"

[00:11:22]I'd be like, "Makes sense. We're at record high valuations. It makes sense we'd have negative returns." But the old adage, time in the market beats time in the market. For the vast majority of people watching today, you have so much time till retirement and your accounts are so much lower than they will be at retirement that as you add to it, even in down years, you won't be down as much because you're adding money and you're buying at lower prices. If you've ever made an investing decision based on a gut feeling and lost money, this software was made for you. Everything Money built the software that replaces gut feelings with a real process. Our stock analyzer tool helps you figure out what a company is actually worth based on the assumptions that you put in. The eight pillars check the health of the business from almost every angle. You stop guessing, and you start investing with actual data and conviction. You'll finally know what you own, why you own it, and the right price to pay for it.

[00:12:16]Not because someone told you to buy it, not because you have FOMO and you saw somebody else make money, but because you ran it through a process and the numbers made sense to you. This isn't complicated, guys. If you can make a thoughtful decision in everyday life, then you can do this. So, start the 7-day trial for just $7. Click the link in the description below and see everything this community and software has to give you today. Now, I want to take a step back from the market noise for a second because whether we're talking about index funds or individual stocks, everything I do and everything we teach in our community is built on five tenants called principal driven investing. And I want to walk you through each one because it's really important that you understand this as a context for this whole video. Tenant number one, we are investors, not speculators. Even buying at all-time highs in valuation today, it feels like speculation. But I would argue that you buying in dollar cost averaging is a process for investors knowing full well that the next 5, 10 or 15 years might not be as good. Tenant number two, every investment is the present value of all the future cash flows that will receive.

[00:13:21]This one is the foundation. What is a business actually worth? What is a stock market worth? It's worth the sum of all the money it's going to make in the future brought back to today in today's dollars. That's it. The story is part of it. If there's any hype involved, it makes it harder. Not when Elon tweets something about it. The actual cash the business is going to generate over its lifetime is how you're going to determine your return. The less you pay for that, the higher return. The more you pay for it, the less your return.

[00:13:47]When I force myself to think about a stock in these terms, it cuts through all the noise. Is this business going to produce more and more cash? If so, how much? Over what period of time? We don't know the future, but we can make assessments about the future based on our past. The key is making realistic and conservative estimates, not being not following the hype and saying this is going to grow like crazy forever.

[00:14:09]Tenant number three, if we don't understand it, we don't invest in it.

[00:14:12]And this one has saved me more money than I can count. If I can't explain in English, in plain English, how a company makes money, I have no business owning it. Period. No exceptions. It doesn't matter how exciting the story is or how many smart people are buying it. If I don't get it, I don't touch it. Tenant number four, in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine. We talk about this in the stocks, but it applies to everything. Even in real estate, the short run's a voting machine. This is actually a quote from Ben Graham, who is Warren Buffett's mentor and one of the greatest investors ever lived, who wrote the intelligent investor, and it might be one of the most important things I can teach you about markets and how they work. In the short run, whatever's popular is going to go up. Whatever is unpopular is going to go down. It's going to involve fear, excitement, hype, news stories, Twitter, whatever it is, that is the voting machine. But in the long run, the fundamentals of the business will come through. The weighing machine will take over. If you buy a business today reasonably priced, and the profit goes up 10x in the next 20 years, your business is probably worth 10x more, give or take. But guys, if you buy based on hype and you're overpaying, even if the business gets better, if you if you overpaying, it's not going to work out well. Which leads us to the fifth and most important tenant. A great story becomes a bad investment if you pay the wrong price. Guys, this is probably the most important tenant of all. You can love a company. You can believe in the business. You can think the CEO is brilliant and the product is incredible and the growth is real. And by the way, not even thinking or believing it, it could very well be 100% true. But if you pay the wrong price, you will not do well. Guys, the best example of this I can find is Cisco.

[00:15:49]This was the company in 2000 along with Intel. And Cisco had its problems and they had this parabolic rise that they just recently hit an all-time high after 26 years of going sideways. But the funny part is if you look at this point right here before this big runup to today, the stock is up about 10x. And guess what? The profit's up about 10x.

[00:16:09]It's not a coincidence. In the short run, the stocks are a voting machine. In the long run, they're a weighing machine. And when the market gets crazy, when valuations are stretched and people are panicking or euphoric, I come back to all these five principles. They keep me from making emotional decisions that will destroy most people's portfolio. So guys, if you want to have these tenants at your fingertips, click the link below in the description or in our first pin comment and we will send you this PDF absolutely for free to your email. Go do it right now. Trust me when I say I have these this PDF at my fingertips at all times and I love repeating it over and over. So let me give you today's real world examples of these principles in action. And this one is personal to me because I actually have skin in the game here. Let's talk semiconductors, the chip stocks, because what has happened in the sector over the last year is one of the most dramatic stories in the entire market. Think about what chips are. Every single thing that runs electricity today basically needs a chip. Your phone, your laptop, your car, your refrigerator, everything. Remember the car fiasco we had a few years ago where cars were going for amazing prices. The reason being was you couldn't get chips in these cars? The chips weren't being made fast enough.

[00:17:17]Now you add on top of it, you have AI.

[00:17:19]Every AI model, every data center, every server running the technology that's changing the world, they all need chips and lots of them because they're very powerful. The demand for semiconductors has gone absolutely through the roof. So what happened to semiconductor stocks?

[00:17:35]Well, they're on an insane run right now. And I mean insane. Some of these stocks have doubled, tripled. The sector as a whole became one of the best performing in the entire market. And that makes sense. The business case is absolutely real. Demand is currently absolutely real. AI spending, as we talked about earlier, is absolutely real. But here's where tenant number five comes in. A great story becomes a bad investment if you pay the wrong price. Let's talk about AMD first. AMD is a fantastic company, generally fantastic. Their chips are competitive.

[00:18:08]They're awesome. Their execution's been excellent. Their data center business is growing leaps and bounds. The story is phenomenal. But their stock has run up so far and so fast that the price of the stock now is pricing in years of years of perfect execution. It is pricing in a future where everything goes right. And when you pay that much for perfection, any hiccup, any quarter where growth slows even a bit, any competitor that competitor that gains ground on you, the stock can easily get cut 50, 60, 70%.

[00:18:38]We've seen it with companies that are absolutely making sense. That's not where a great investment setup occurs.

[00:18:43]That is speculation. You're betting that everything has to go right. Now, let me talk about the big one, Intel. And guys, this one's personal because I own Intel.

[00:18:52]I've owned it and I've benefited from the runup. And this is a company that people criticize me for on this very channel for a long time. And I'm going to be honest with you where I stand.

[00:19:00]Intel has been through the ringer. They lost their manufacturing edge. They fell behind. Business struggled. Business fell. And for a while, the stock price reflected all of that pain. The price was absolutely crushed. They hit a high of $75 in 2000. And as of a year ago, they were at $17 per share, an 80% drop in 26 years. And that's why I owned it.

[00:19:23]I bought it as it's falling and for a while there people are like look Paul the stock price is low you are wrong I get why people think that I said well I don't think I'm wrong and I don't know if I'm wrong yet and guys in the last year the stock went from $17 a share to 110 as of yesterday and guess what I'm saying I don't think it's worth 110 I'm consistent on both sides guys I didn't think it was worth 20 I don't think it's worth 110 this is what's interesting to me this company was left for dead a year ago you were stupid for even considering it. Now it's at 110 and my friends in the group chats are like, "Hey Paul, what's going on with Intel?" I'm like, "Is this a joke? This is literally a company that people were on just a year ago because news follows the stock price and Intel is running up significantly." And when I run it through our stock analyzer and I look at the numbers, what I see is a stock that's moved ahead of where I think the fair value actually is. My analyst view is that Intel's probably worth closer to $50. And right now with a stock at $110 a share, that's hard to justify, especially with the current condition of the business. Big fall in revenue. Cash flow and net income are negative. So I look at it going, what the heck happens here? So what do I do? I'm not panic selling. The business is still real. It is turning around though, and it's still developing. But it also has a great reputation as a chipmaker. Even through its ups and downs, they were still a good chipmaker. But I'm also not adding more at this prices because that would violate everything I just told you about paying the right price. I bought below value. The price has moved way past it.

[00:20:52]Sit back, relax, and enjoy your flight.

[00:20:54]But I don't think for a second. If I were to guess, if somebody put a gun to my head and said, "Paul, will Intel stock be higher or lower 5 years from now than it is today?" I would bet it's going to be lower. But I don't know that for a fact. So I just sit back and I sit there and say, "Let them execute."

[00:21:08]That's what principal driven investing looks like in the real world. It's not clean. It's not easy. It's very difficult because you have to sit there and fight the emotions of the stomach and the no news out there and the noise out there. But with that framework, if you stick to it, even when the stock is going your way, it does feel good to buy more. But you've just got to go back to, am I paying the right price? The semiconductor story is real. AI demand is real and probably getting better, but the prices on a lot of these stocks right now have run way ahead of the earnings that actually support them. So, I want you to be careful. Understand what you own. Understand what it's worth. And don't let a great story talk you into paying a price that makes it a bad investment. Guys, there's an old saying, price is what you pay. Value is what you get. If you believe things can be undervalued, you have to believe things can be overvalued. If you believe things can be overvalued, you have to believe they're going to be undervalued.

[00:21:58]It's what the market is doing at any given time. And Mr. Market is is emotional. He's going to be negative one day, positive another day, and he's going to just display a price for you to decide on what you want to buy. But I want you to remember price can move like this very quickly. Value takes a little more time. Value tends to go up like this. So all you're trying to do is buy when Mr. Market's a little more depressed than he should be. That's hard to do. That's why we have this community. That's why we have the software. That's why we have this channel. That's exactly why we teach here. Guys, I'm not going to be right on everything. There's no way. Nobody's You can be su You can be a phenomenally successful investor being right 50% of the time. But the ideas we have here are correct. how we apply them is the nuances of everything. When the if the market were to fall 80% tomorrow, I'd probably be one of the few channels talking about what a great opportunity that is. That's why I want you paying attention to us. So, let me bring it all the way home here. Nobody knows what tomorrow's going to bring. Not me, not the analyst analysts at Goldman Sachs, especially not them, not even Warren Buffett. He has said himself publicly many, many times, he doesn't know what the market's going to do next month or next year. he knows and what I believe is that over long periods of time great businesses will go up in value and that principle alone has made him one of the wealthiest human beings who's ever lived. So the question I want to ask and myself and I want you to ask yourself is this are you going to let fear keep you on the sidelines? Are you going to keep waiting for a moment that feels comfortable, a moment that may never come while the market potentially keeps going up without you? Or are you going to build a process? Are you going to stick to principles and keep investing no matter what the headlines say in what you perceive to be the right process?

[00:23:32]But at the end of the day, it's what I do. It's what all the best investors always recommend people to do. And if you want to see exactly how I put all this into practice, we just put out a video breaking down the 12 moves that I've made in my portfolio. The businesses, the prices, the reasoning behind every single one of them. So, click the video on your screen. Thank you for your time.