Wall Street Won't Stop...

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Has Wall Street gone completely bonkers?

[00:00:03]With the latest upgrades coming in from Nvidia, today's number might shock you.

[00:00:07]$500 is what one of the estimates is when it comes to the buffins and their upgraded targets. So, could a stock like this really double over the next coming years? Today we take a look at the volatility that's set into the markets and how we might be starting to see structure repeating a similar course and why gap closes could be a very big sign over the next 24 to 48 hours.

[00:00:36]Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you love macro, some darkpool liquidity from Wall Street, of which there was quite a lot, or anything else to do with markets, make sure to subscribe and smash that like button.

[00:00:49]But today, we need to discuss cluster trades on semiconductors, the current volatility there, and a couple of sneaky new sectors that are starting to see flows. Just a quick announcement before we get into the hard data structure and everything else for today's session. If you are in New Zealand, Oakland in particular, during the 6th and 7th of June, or you can make it to the event, we will be at New Zealand CryptoCon at booth 14. Both myself and Tyrone will be there. It's going to be awesome to meet you guys, and we will also be doing an exclusive talk on the Sunday if you can make it. We do have some description comments down below, including a 20% off tickets for the event. If you're interested in attending, make sure to check it out. And if you are in New Zealand, come on down. These events are fantastic and it's always great to speak with you guys as well and meet everyone in the community. All right, well let's get started here with what some things have been happening in the markets. Now we did see of course this week volatility come back in and that showed first up in Cosby which is hardware stocks in of course well it's actually the index but basically hardware stocks in South Korea and we also saw semiconductors start to show their first signs of volatility. Now, this sent the Q's down to their first level of support, and since then, the markets have rallied, moving closer to that gap fill on the Q's. Now, it would probably come as no surprise that this is what markets tend to do. When volatility starts to enter into the markets themselves, that generally tells us that somebody has decided to possibly take some money off the table and that the I guess you would say the trade, the easiest money is usually done. Now, what happens is we tend to get a lot of volatility as people start to make big positional changes. Now, this comes off the back of a positive 20% gain uh in in the S&P from the lows. And at that point, you start to hit a very important stat that's only happened 11 times. And that tends to be a structural market that tends to be quite volatile and can even drop, which is in line with some seasonality that we'll talk about later on today's video. Remember, this is a midterm election year. It does all make some sense. So, if you're starting to feel FOMO in these markets, traditionally anyway, what the flows have shown us so far is has the trend changed? No. We've talked about that.

[00:03:01]But has volatility come in? Are we starting to see signs of this volatility entering into structure like we're seeing? Yes, we are. Now, here's where things get really wild. Take a look here at the upgrades from Wall Street, from the buffins on Wall Street for Nvidia over the last 24 hours in particular.

[00:03:18]Take a look at this one. Robert Wbed, I've got to say you are absolutely very bullish on Nvidia and maybe you're correct. Who knows? But basically, he's looking at a doubling plus of the stock potentially over the next coming years and this is a massive target. Now, whenever you're looking at Wall Street, you always want to take around the averages and you can use this actually as a part of your tools. Now, of course, we always discuss all of these things together. The key here to understanding flow to understanding Wall Street secret moves, price action, psychology of the markets is to bring together many different techniques. But them upgrading obviously may lead to bigger market moves in the future. And this is one of the things that we have to keep in the back of our mind. If the buffins think it's upgraded, then sometimes the flows go that way. But that wasn't so. Nvidia actually did exactly what it has done the last three times, which is sold off even on a bonkers earnings result. Now, speaking of earnings, we have another big factor coming on this year, and that is IPOs. Now, we say on this channel, IPOs, IPOs, IPOs, earnings, earnings, earnings. And the reason we mentioned both of those, these are probably the two most important things when it comes to this market run that's going on right now and how we could recognize that it's actually starting to look really shaky.

[00:04:36]Not just from margin, not just from debt, not just from volatility. It's going to be one of those two things, at least in my opinion. Now, we've got IPOs coming up. Blue Kurdic Market Insights has gone through all of the most recent ones and he's actually put together a structure which pretty much brings together everything we already discuss on the channel which is that more recently the bigger IPOs. What have they done? They've come in, they haven't survived very long. Generally less than a week in terms of overall being positive. The average return of a week is usually terrible. And then actually over the next 12 months they've gone down. And this is why we mention IPOs, IPOs, IPOs because SpaceX is coming sooner rather than later. We've got Anthropic and then of course we have Open AI and these companies burn money out of control. So even with Anthropic supposedly coming into some form of profitability based on the latest information we're getting, we still are looking at some pretty wild moves. So this is going to be big because these aren't like any other IPO before.

[00:05:37]They're the biggest ever and it's not even close. Let's now talk about some massive darkpool volume that's come through. This is courtesy of volumeleaders.com and you can see here that we are starting to see clusters again. Now, previous clusters have actually led into bullish action. And that's why it's very important that you actually see changes of trend that you actually recognize the three ways that markets change trend. And we do actually talk about this in our courses over at fxevolution.com. Memorial sale on now.

[00:06:05]By the way, guys, this is the year that you really want to be thinking about this cuz this year is going to be volatile. Like, this is a midterm election year. It's going to be really crazy by the time we get to the end of it. At least that's what I think. Now, cluster trades have come in and there's quite a lot of them. We have ones at the top. We also have a few that have just bought in after this small dip. So, the largest ever here for Q. That's a massive semiconductor trade. So, plenty of stuff, plenty of price action to look at later on. MU as well has been very popular in recent times and you can see here huge clusters around the top and that suggests that somebody said you know what yeah it was pretty pretty good move I'm going to take a little bit off the table and why do you guess that well the number one largest trade for MU ever recorded came in just a little while ago markets dipped because again they don't usually necessarily hit the bottom or the tops they take the averages in grid buying as well and you can see here that the positions then have led in and the number two biggest trade of all I I mean that could be this person over here. You don't know that, but certainly some massive transactions. So, we're getting kind of a bit of a story line here when you start to look through semiconductors. Massive trades have led on to massive moves and now everyone seems to be transacting again. Intel is very similar. Number one largest trade, number two largest trade up here, and suddenly a cluster. And that suggests that we're going to be in for a pretty volatile wild time. and that probably the party has at least, you know, slowed when it comes to this. If it's in the press, it's in the price. And I think you'd be hardressed to go to anybody on the street that has any idea about markets and for them not to say, "I love semiconductors. I love AI. And I love something to do with hardware." They may not even know what they're talking about, but the fact is they're probably going to say those things. And this is when it gets most dangerous when everybody's doing something. Speaking of something else that's going on, we've got KWE here. It's been a while since we've seen some large transactions on this. This is Chinese tech uh in the US and you can see here couple of the largest transactions coming through.

[00:08:06]Certainly something we're monitoring along with price action. All right, so are we in historic runs? The answer is quite simply yes. Polycarp has put together a pretty good chart here based on daily RSI being over 80. You guys know that when this happens, we don't really pay attention to RSI too much as it tends to give you a lot of false signals. But this is a massive overby that's going on right now. And what's happened in the past is that markets have sometimes rallied a little bit more post this event, but they've been very close to what becomes quite highly volatile and ultimately generally has led into price stabilizing or going lower. And this is more along those lines of the current structure. remember it kind of goes like this plus 20% crazy V and then something like that and then it ends up picking up later and that makes a lot of sense when we start to bring that back to some of the other things we're starting to see. This one here from macro charts actually shows that the overall S&P single stock put call skew has gotten crushed. And the last time we saw crushing like this was actually back in the beginning of January kind of into February which obviously led into tariff crush. And at the same time we've got it again. So what is this? It's basically complacency by the market. Nobody really is interested in the put side on the S&P and most people are just interested in the calls which suggests that of course people are getting a little bit hyped.

[00:09:30]Now is this exactly where you would expect it to happen? Yeah. I mean based on the midterm election years here uh you can see Polycarps put together a little bit of seasonality here via these sources. And you'll notice again what tends to happen is this is pretty normal to be up. It's pretty much in line with what we've thought about this year, which has been dip in Q1, rally off that dip and then stabilization ideally and then maybe maybe a bit more of a decline. Now, why is that possible?

[00:10:00]Because midterm election years, they tend to bring the volatility. Markets hate uncertainty and that's something that they're going to be looking at. At least you would think. Although we are in at this stage a very very bullish earnings period. This has been absolutely just, you know, pretty much the best I've seen for, you know, really ever when you're thinking about just pure pure profit and pure beats from the biggest stocks, not not necessarily the rest of them. Now, let's have a look here at the top 10 stocks now coming into, of course, 41% of the overall market. That's a lot of consolidation, but it's not necessarily a bad thing.

[00:10:36]You might say, well, it's bad ultimately, sure, but at the same time, it's it's happened many times before. At one point in the history of the US, you had of course energy companies being massive. And what tends to happen is this is what occurs later cycle. You see a ton amount of concentration. Now why are we getting upgrades across the board? Well, earnings have come through.

[00:10:56]Duality research here as you can see plenty of upgrades across the board there for those. And uh Mandy Zoo as well has put together an interesting one here sourced off uh macro charts on X.

[00:11:09]And it basically says again inverted call skew is really high. So all of these signals are basically saying we're pretty extreme. We've moved to these levels that are pretty wild and effectively we have a ton of transactions in semiconductors. And what is that? Well, it's a kind of like a cocktail for this type of action on markets. That's exactly what we would usually expect. And it's not really so much our opinion. It's just what has happened in the past. And as you guys know, our opinion is not necessarily worth that much. What is worth a lot is following the data, following the hard information, and understanding market structure. When do we lose levels? When do we actually see something being broken to the downside or upside? So, for now, the trends are still intact, but V is back in. And I always pay attention when it's V and it's bonds.

[00:11:58]So, let's now move over to why this is affecting the markets. Well, first up, the US dollar here, the one of the biggest hedges in the world, has been moving kind of bullish in recent days.

[00:12:07]And the reason why it's been doing this is because, of course, yields across the world have been going up. Now, we'll do a bit of a special on yields on the weekend because we need to see weekly closures for things like the 30y, which went to almost 5.2, became super wildly spread, and then of course came back down. But we've also seen some pressure here on Japanese yields. Now, I don't think enough people are bringing this one up. You might say, "Well, we've seen this for years. It's done nothing."

[00:12:33]That's pretty crazy. It's still accelerating. And what this is going to do is it's going to put pressure on, of course, that big flaw that we've got here, which is 160. Now, if we get pressured on 160 to the dollar yen, then all of a sudden, what could we get?

[00:12:48]Intervention from central banks and starting to catch up a little bit with Japan. What's going on here? Because again, you do not want to see some of these massive yields uh moving the way they are. I'm sure they're not too happy with what's going on here. 3.69%.

[00:13:03]It's not new, but take a look where we were just a few years ago. And then you start to think about the debt. You start to think about everything else and you go, "Wow, is this a ticking time bomb?"

[00:13:12]It certainly could be, but again, when will the market care? It hasn't so far.

[00:13:16]So, this is going to affect everything to do with treasuries and we'll discuss it on the weekend as well. Now, let's have a look at the S&P. Has it taken the advanced decline down? No. Now, why is that important? Well, that's what we traditionally see when the market really starts to weaken properly. We did see it come down to the first level of support and so far it's remained relatively resilient. Now, I'll just go back here for a second. So, you can see the gap fill for this would actually be the closure of 7500. So, 7500's a huge psychological level plus call option level. We'll check it out in a moment.

[00:13:49]Let's have a look at the US 500. Update the options high and low levels. So you can see it's kind of bullying at this point with markets, you know, really just ignoring so many different issues that are going on. But from price action perspective, once it closed below above that 2hour um 2hour 50 exponential, broke the downward trend line and then of course came back and tested it. Nice wicks here as well. Big bullish wicks that pushed the market up and this is still the key support for the bears. So unless they can get it below that level, it's really just a resilient market to the upside. Let's now have a look at the S&P. Where are all the calls? They're all sitting at 7500. So yeah, call level 7500. Massive zone for the S&P. It's going to be hard to get past it. And I don't know what's going on here, but by December, man, there's a lot of people that have 8,000. Look at all those calls floating around 8,000 by the end of the year. They must be uh very keen on the market, you've got to say. What about the Q's? Same type of thing. We're moving up. 700 was the put wall and we saw it get hit and the markets of course rallied off that area. At the moment looks like 720ish is kind of the call which would line up well with 7500. So the markets are in synergy. You know in many ways things are moving the way you would expect. Now from Nvidia's perspective it was a great earnings but the market still sold off even with all the upgrades. For now though the market still is in a bullish trend which we'll look at in the charts in a moment. Tesla wise, a little bit of hype coming in here because of the SpaceX IPO and how that's all working and people are getting hype for IPOs. So again, this year guys is IPOs, IPOs, IPOs and actually the price action was a little bit better. So we'll look at that in a moment. Not much to go off with the calls. It's starting to enter back into positive gamma though, which means that the call that like the option side seems to be more driven towards the bulls at this stage on IBIT and Bitcoin. Nothing going on. daily 200, guys. That's the level that we're really watching on this chart. All right, let's bring up firstly the move index and whether the bonds are freaking out. The answer is they're not freaking out, but they did take a higher high. So, if this starts to accelerate, the market's going up. That is a no bueno. We do not want that. That is bad for the markets. Now, at this stage coming down, it's pretty normal. You can't tell whether the lows in on the markets yet from this perspective, but it's a little bit of improvement along with yields coming down. And this has meant that of course the abundance that we talk about in these markets continues to kind of play through. We've seen IGV slow and steady. Software sector of course improving in recent weeks. There are other sectors as well that are starting to move. Healthcare for the first time in ages has started to pick up a little bit here on the charts. And we've also seen of course um some other ones as well such as metals bounce off that fib of the other day and start to pick up as well. So there's certain markets that are that are moving over at our market masters club over on fxevolution.com. We've also seen a few other sectors and we do review all the sectors every week there if you're interested. Memorial Day sale links in the description guys. Now let's have a look here over at the equal weighted markets when it comes to discretionary versus staples. We have seen the last two sessions show that risk is back on.

[00:17:05]Now this is basically risk on. So is this you know a new trend? Not really.

[00:17:10]The trend has actually been quite bad towards the American consumer and it's just picked up over the last two sessions. So again, why' it do it? Well, it came down to major key support and so far it's rallying. If this turns and breaks underneath this level, it is a very worrying sign for the economy and ultimately the economy will catch up with the stock market but they are different things and they can take some time. XLP no break of.11 or8.

[00:17:37]So, this is going to be, of course, a big key level we're watching. And energy had a bad session on it in stocks as we saw barrels actually drop from their highs. So, look, energy has been volatile. It hasn't been able to break 110. It's not necessarily at the, you know, the end of the run just yet. I actually think energy is still a very interesting sector. Uh but we'll be watching very closely around this level should we hit it over the weekend which is 94 plus also that daily 50 exponential. Remember we weren't able to get higher highs so this will not be as strong but we do have some decent supports there. So all eyes on energy to see whether it starts to improve for the NASDAQ. It's probably just the gap fill that most people are watching which is uh basically the market getting close to 720 which just so happens to be as you guessed it a call wall very strong market held the first level of demand a lot of people would think this took a lower low it didn't well it didn't in my opinion in terms of broke broke structure because I think that this was reacting to this level of demand and that's kind of how it usually plays. Uh did it start to weaken? Yes. Once we lost the main moving average on the way up, then what that does is it starts to put us into that structure that we've seen before after huge rallies. And this is kind of the point where a lot of people lose their confidence in markets because what I mean by that is everyone is turns super bullish and says it'll never end and you know all the normal stuff, but actually the market said to you, well maybe we're here for a bit of a breather. And remember this is where you often do get pits at least based on history of structure. That's all you can really go off. Is the market kit, you know, dying in terms of trend? No, it's not. It's just becoming more volatile, which means that somebody at least thinks, hey, I'm going to take a little bit off the table. Cosby time. Big rally, guys. Uh, this again did sell quite a lot, but it didn't sell enough to make me think absolute tops are in for it. The the SNDK kind of did, though, which we'll look at in a moment.

[00:19:36]But Cosby, this is a big volatility, and this just means that again, there's action. And what have we seen? huge huge transactions go through. SNDK, what a crazy stock. It went down 20, it recovered 20. And this is that that kind of buy the dip style mentality that comes into markets during these types of rallies. No real surprises that it's done that. I would have probably thought it might have slowed about 1,500, but I will still think that this is very dangerous position. And uh from my perspective anyway, it's all about risk management at this stage. So SNDK, it's been the stock that just keeps giving the bulls and I think we'll probably focus on this quite a lot over the next coming weeks as I suspect it will continue to be quite volatile and that's taken DRAM back up as well which is pretty much where everyone's looking.

[00:20:23]It's really just been everyone's just going tech semiconductors hardware stocks in general. That's been what most people have been watching but there's other stuff as well. When it comes to semiconductors we know there are tons of transactions in this market. The actual most transacted zone though interestingly was the high. So that's going to be around 574. So again could line up well with gap fills. I think there's a lot of interesting things going on around 7500 720 on the cues and possibly this semi zone. So watching that very closely but for now still bullish. Let's have a look here at silver. Nothing much going on in the silver markets and really not much going on in the gold markets yet. They could be hooking up some inverse head and shoulders but again that is a guess. if you want to see actual confirmation on charts. We haven't got any of those types of things from the technical side.

[00:21:10]And when we have a look at the XJO here, we can kind of see that the markets themselves have actually bulled relatively well for a weekly close and that will be closing soon. So, we had that dogee, we had the market looking kind of flaky and then all of a sudden it bounced back up. My thoughts were would probably go to about 8,400. It has bounced, but this is a chart that until it really gets past 9,000 again is not going to look too good. It's been consolidating for quite some time.

[00:21:37]Neither really bearish nor really bullish on the XJO. It's it's very neutral until those levels happen. What about Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin has been slow to say the least. It didn't manage to hold that 20 moving average daily. We know the 200 is is bucking this thing's trend every time it goes up. So, it's really can we get through the 200, take out 82,000 and then start to move towards that 89 to 90K or are we just going to continue to, you know, kind of languish? The other coins, they're all struggling as well. Obviously, it's Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin generally. And one of the key levels we're watching is 8786 as well from four small time frame structure because at the moment the small time frame is actually down and well not super small but the smaller time frames and the bigger ones haven't actually shown any type of technical pattern towards the bullish actions just yet. Guys, if you enjoyed today's video then please remember to subscribe. Make sure to stay tuned for the weekend video as well where we'll do a bit of a dive into what's going on in these bonds markets in general. You know, one of the things I guess that we've been seeing recently has we'll also do Tesla on the weekend as well because we want to see that weekly close and check that out.

[00:22:46]But in general at the moment, guys, I think to summarize these markets, it's do we have a ton of allocations coming in from retail? Yes. Do we have signs that the party that is the trend has spread to many many places? If it's in the press, it's in the price. I think it's yes. And have we started to see extreme volatility in the most important sectors? I think all eyes have to be on Cosby. They all have to be on semiconductors and you have to be watching those markets. The buffins continue to upgrade. Earnings has been exceptional. But now that V's entered the chat, I think that could mean that we start to see some very volatile markets. So that means subscribe to the channel. Smash that like button. And again, if you're interested in attending New Zealand CryptoCon in Oakland, we will be there booth 14. I'll also be doing a couple of speeches as I said. So make sure to come down, say hi. 20% off in the tickets in the description down below. Thank you so much, guys. Bye for now.