Wall Street Missed This Warning !?!

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:02]Hey, my magnificent monsters. Larry Gayton, Ray, Auro, Simborn, Mor Craig, Gary, John, Rob, Mad, Mary, Cliff, Pit, Ted. Good morning everybody. My magnificent monsters. Welcome to the show. We'll crack open the can because coffee is a luxury of the high flutin asset class.

[00:00:30][laughter] The American consumer is reaching the part of the month where the checking account starts making dialup internet noises. Um, the CEO of Craft Hind says consumers are literally running out of money before the end of the month.

[00:00:51]Not a doom blogger type thing here. This is not your cousin who financed a jet ski at 19%. This is the ketchup guy, the condiment guy, you know, the craft mac and cheese guy.

[00:01:07]Steve, the new CEO of Craft, told the Wall Street, Hu Journal that shoppers are hitting the wall so hard by week four in a month that Craft Times is pushing harder into value products, pushing harder into promotions, pushing harder into shrinkflation, uh, smaller package sizes, I mean, and lower price points. Now this matters to all of us because the market keeps asking the wrong question here.

[00:01:42]It keeps asking we keep talking about is the consumer strong is the consumer weak and it's kind of like a an adorable little question. It's like asking whether the Titanic buffet was good or was the Titanic's buffet not so good.

[00:02:03]Do we care about the buffet? The real question was which consumer are you invested in?

[00:02:11]Which consumer do you have exposure to?

[00:02:15]Higher income consumers, they're pretty all right. Still spending, still mostly fine. Maybe traded down a little bit, but weathering the storm. AI stocks are still throwing confetti, but the lower income consumer as they watch gas prices hit 456 and average per gallon nationally.

[00:02:44]They're getting squeezed. Fuel up, food up, debt costs up, energy costs beyond fuel up.

[00:02:54]I mean, savings account rates or, you know, sizes or savings account uh the amount in savings hitting lows that we haven't seen in a while.

[00:03:09]So, we have this K-shaped economy split.

[00:03:13]companies selling affordable essentials, value meals, bulk groceries, cheap calories, you know, defensive winners here.

[00:03:29]Companies depending on big ticket purchases, casual dining, subscriptions, credit fueled impulse spending.

[00:03:36]They could be walking toward a wood chipper. This is the kind of paycheck paycheck hourglass economy here. They've called it a K-shaped economy. You know, money drops on payday.

[00:03:51]Drains through gas, groceries, rent, debt payments, insurance.

[00:03:57]Hopefully, nobody used the cash and go, you know, check in a cash places. But you know, by week four, there's not much sand left in this hourglass to pick up some ketchup, much less pick up a dishwasher as Whirlpool announces Craft Hinder KHC.

[00:04:18]Yeah, they own Hines.

[00:04:21]It's in the name. They own Craft. It's in the name. They own Oscar Meyer. They own Phil Philadelphia cream cheese, Lunchables, Velvita, Capri Sun, Kool-Aid, Maxwell House. You know, it's basically if a childhood lunchbox had sodium, nostalgia, and a cartoon straw, Craft Hind was probably involved.

[00:04:43]So, Steve, our new CEO, is steering the company toward lower prices on some items, more promotions, smaller packages, because consumers have started responding to inflation with the ancient economic strategy known as not buying anything.

[00:05:06]Wall Street sometimes hates discounts because they pressure margins. But here's the monster size point right here. If consumers are broke by the 24th, the company that meets them at the shelf with a $3 option may beat the company insisting on a premium $9 experience called Artisan Sadness.

[00:05:32]I mean, have you seen that Rio's pasta sauce that Campbell's bought? I mean, they still charge a pretty penny for it.

[00:05:43]But if you got PGO down there for a couple bucks a jar versus the rails for nine bucks a jar, who's buying what?

[00:05:55]And it's not just Craft Hind whining here because shoppers are buying store brand ketchup that tastes like red wallpaper paste. Uh McDonald's CEO Chris Kinsky said that macro environment and consumer sentiment are not improving and they have signs that it's actually getting worse.

[00:06:25]Think about that. McDonald's stalwart of US consumership for years is saying the people we typically sell burgers to can't buy burgers. They can't even afford to come. inflation and gas prices hitting those regular shoppers of regular visitors of McDonald's harder than the average bear. [sighs] McDonald's, of course, MCD is kind of running a two-lane highway through the K-shaped economy. In one lane, you have the make value meal.

[00:07:06]You've got the $3 items, the $4 breakfast, the $5 meals. In lane two, you have the premium drinks, the high price menu items for people whose checking accounts don't get checked before they go pump gas. That's kind of the strategy that McDonald's is saying.

[00:07:26]You know, we'll sell fries to both the banker and the guy who just checked his fuel receipt briefly and saw God.

[00:07:36]We'll sell fries to both of them. And then you know Whirlpool last week coming out tickers WHR their story a little darker here.

[00:07:48]Whirlpool is saying that the Iran war caused a recession level industry decline on appliances in the United States. Consumer confidence has collapsed. Shares they're down 12%. The company cut fullear earnings guidance roughly in half.

[00:08:08]They say we're in a full-blown recession based on appliance purchases and they actually suspended the dividend to focus on debt reduction for the company. They think this is not going to just blow over quickly.

[00:08:28]That right there is a big warning.

[00:08:29]That's a washing machine company screaming from inside the laundry room saying, "Hey, there's a problem."

[00:08:41]You know, big ticket purchases are easy to delay, but if your dishwasher dies, you can hand wash dishes.

[00:08:51]Call it character building.

[00:08:54]Washers, dryers, furniture, home improvement projects, and appliance upgrades are exactly the kind of purchases consumers postpone when the paycheck hourglass pulls in.

[00:09:10]That means investors watching WHR, HD, Home Depot, LOW, Lowe's, you should understand the chain reaction here.

[00:09:21]Higher gas prices don't just curb driving.

[00:09:27]Some of us have to get to work every day regardless of the fuel price. So, it's a pretty much a tax on extra household income. And the home home improvement aisle gets lonely, you know. And then there's Planet Fitness PLNT.

[00:09:50]Their warning was a little sneakier.

[00:09:52]Planet Fitness is supposed to be the affordable gym out there in America. The place where you can pay a low monthly fee and pretend the treadmill is a personality.

[00:10:04]Yet management just revised their guidance.

[00:10:10]They paused a national roll out of a black card price increase cited macro pressure and uncertainty weighing on their consumers.

[00:10:21]You when the lowcost gym has to think carefully about what their prices price increases or you know their pricing structure. Consumers are not just cutting luxury.

[00:10:37]They're starting to audit every reoccurring charge like a detective in a Netflix crime documentary.

[00:10:44]Streaming services gone. Gym upgrades gone. Casual dinner outs gone.

[00:10:52]Emotional support candle subscription tragically also gone.

[00:10:59]So here's the investment framework here.

[00:11:00]In in the paycheck hourglass economy, companies fall into three buckets, right?

[00:11:08]Yo, bucket one, you got essential value winners. Now, they sell necessities at prices that consumers can still justify. So, examples here of that space, you got Craft Hinds, KHC, Walmart, WMT, Costco, COST, Dollar General, DG, Dollar Tree, DLTR, and GIS.

[00:11:37]General Mills.

[00:11:39]Now, bucket number two, discretionary squeeze losers. You know, they need consumers to have money left after the essentials.

[00:11:48]I'm talking about WHR, DIN, kind of a large section of XLY, PLNT, maybe Netflix, and then you have split lane operators.

[00:12:04]They can serve both stressed consumers and the more affluent as long as they play down the the line here. And this is where we see some overlap here in the buckets. MCD, McDonald's, they they're playing both sides of the K. Costco playing both sides of the K. Walmart definitely playing both sides of the K. Trying to try to hold on to the bottom ones so they don't trade down to Dollar General or Dollar Tree. Amazon, they've always been playing the whole field.

[00:12:38]So, let's talk about winners pretending this is easy. Walmart, Costco, they're obvious places that investors look when households trade down. Walmart wins when shoppers want groceries, pharmacy, basics, low prices all in one trip. Costco wins when families with cash flow still want bulk value and the spiritual experience of buying 48 rolls of toilet paper.

[00:13:06]Like they're pre preparing for a medieval siege. You know, Dollar General here, Dollar Tree, it's DG and DLTR.

[00:13:17]Things are a little more complicated.

[00:13:19]They benefit from trade down behavior, but their customers are often the same households that are being squeezed the hardest.

[00:13:29]Traffic can rise while basket size, margins, and unfortunately theft increase.

[00:13:39]Credit stress here still bites hard.

[00:13:43]Discount retailers, they're not automatically in the victory parade. Sometimes it's a knife fight over pennies. In fact, [clears throat] one of the I noticed a couple weeks ago that one of the local Dollar Generals closed. I mentioned something to the my wife and daughter and yeah, we heard that one was getting robbed so much that they couldn't afford to stay open there.

[00:14:09]And um it's just kind of crazy.

[00:14:14]package names, you know, packaged food.

[00:14:18]They always say when you're shopping healthy, shop on the outside of the store. When you're shopping, you know, not so healthy, shop in the middle. It's where all the packaged food is like Craft Hinds, General Mills, Campbell.

[00:14:32]So, it's KHC, GIS, CPB, and CAG, Kagra.

[00:14:40]They can benefit when consumers cook more at home or look for those cheap fill everybody up meals in a box. But they also face margin pressure if they have to promote aggressively while input costs are increasing.

[00:14:57]Diesel affects everything.

[00:15:00]Diesel affects commodities. Diesel affects food. Diesel effects producing the food, growing the food, getting the food to the store, processing the food.

[00:15:11]Diesel stays high. It's going to trickle through all of it. Puts pressure on these food suppliers.

[00:15:20]Higher costs and these staple companies get squeezed from suppliers and from consumers.

[00:15:28]suppliers needing more cost for their inputs and consumers getting squeezed because they just don't have the money to buy it.

[00:15:39]Margins evaporate if you want to keep the business going.

[00:15:43]So, congratulations.

[00:15:45]You're now in the meat of the inflation sandwich here.

[00:15:51]Beef still at alltime highs.

[00:15:55]On the loser side, casual dining you know, Dime Brands, ticker D I N, they own places like Applebee's and IHOP.

[00:16:06]You know, the article I read was citing management saying that they're more price sensitive guests.

[00:16:14]They don't come in to the restaurants anymore. I mean, it makes sense if gas prices are punching you in the you and your wallet in the throat. pancakes served by somebody else.

[00:16:25]Maybe maybe you can cook some pancakes at home. You can make sad pancakes at home for a dollar and call it brunch. So the credit angle here matters, too. If consumers are using credit cards to bridge the gap, well, you know, you've got this gap between paychecks and expenses. Like you get the paycheck here, but you got to cover all this other investors. You might want to monitor like Capital One, Synchron Financial, COF, SYF, AXP, V, Visa, MA, Mastercard.

[00:17:07]Now, they're not all the same. American Express has more affluent customer base while Synchry and some of the private label credit players have more exposure to stressed borrowers.

[00:17:20]It kind of balances out because of you know there are people thriving you know that's that's one story and but there's a lot not thriving if balances rise because people are buying groceries at 24% APR that's kind of a horror movie with a rewards program energy is both a villain and a hedge in this situation Exon Mobile XO OM Chevron, CVX, other energy ETFs like XOP can benefit from these higher oil prices. But higher oil can damage the consumer and slow the economy. Energy can be both an umbrella and a serious raincloud for the economy.

[00:18:07]Very helpful, very annoying, very stock markety, right? Classic.

[00:18:14]University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hit a record low of 49.8% in April with a year- ahead inflation expectation jumped to 4.7%.

[00:18:27]Sounds like the Fed's controlling rates.

[00:18:29]We'll see what the new Fed does when he gets appointed, you know, new Fed chair getting appointed today.

[00:18:35]Getting sworn in 3.8% in March.

[00:18:41]expecting 4.7year out guidance 3.8 in March. This doesn't sound like the hunky dory 2% that they were gunning for. The preliminary May readings for consumer sentiment slipping further to 48.2 with roughly a third of consumers spontaneously mentioning gasoline prices without even being prompted for it. about 30% mentioning tariffs even though they weren't prompted for it.

[00:19:13]These kind of problems aren't just vibes anymore. This is kind of turning into a national financial mood ring.

[00:19:20]It's kind of going dark on everybody.

[00:19:23]It's not the pretty colors that you normally see on the mood ring. So, what do we do besides scream into a can of monster?

[00:19:31]First, you stop treating the consumer as one giant blob.

[00:19:35]You know, it's not just there's not just a consumer. The America the American consumer is not just one thing. There's affluent consumers.

[00:19:44]They buy premium drinks, vacations, and then there's a lower income consumer deciding whether to fill up the tank or maybe you don't need to buy any kind of name brand lunch meat. Maybe the store brand is okay. Maybe their baloney doesn't have a first name or a last name.

[00:20:07]Those aren't the same kind of economy here.

[00:20:10]Now, you got to watch management's language when they talk about this stuff. When a CEO says value, affordability, promotions, price sensitive, smaller pack sizes. What they're telling you is where the battlefield is moving.

[00:20:28]Those words aren't decorative. They're kind of smoke from the front lines.

[00:20:34]Then as we look further, you can look for companies that have pricing flexibility, volume resilience. A company that can lower ticket size without destroying margins has a weapon in this type of environment. A company that needs consumers to finance big purchases at high interest rates, they're going to have a problem. And here's the closing thought for my monsters here of the markets. When the ketchup CEO says Americans are running out of money, that's not just a grocery story right here. This is a macro flare. It means the bottom of the K-shaped economy is getting bigger.

[00:21:16]The K is getting skewed.

[00:21:19]The bottom's getting heavier, probably angrier, kind of more expensive to keep people going for companies with margins. And then, you know, the companies that can feed the consumer cheaply may survive. The companies that need the consumer to splurge may discover that brand loyalty ends exactly where the the money runs out, once the debit card declines. So, keep your eyes on All these tickers I've mentioned here today, Craft Hinds, Walmart, Costco, McDonald's, Whirlpool, Dine Outs, Plants, Fitness, Netflix, DG, DLTR.

[00:22:02]Gas prices matter. And when they keep setting new record average highs, it's a problem. Watch for promotions.

[00:22:11]Watch for margins. And for the love of all that's caffeinated, don't confuse a strong market with a strong household budget.

[00:22:20]That's a fatal flaw. Wall Street can float on AI dreams for a while, but mainstream main street the average consumer out there has to fill the gas tank. They got to bag groceries. They got to make it to Friday because you only got two more days to work that week. Stay sharp, everybody.

[00:22:38]Stay cynical. Let's look at some charts.

[00:22:40]Let's see if we can find something to trade today. Possibly make some money today. What do you say?

[00:22:48]You like that? You thought it was helpful, beneficial, give me a thumbs up or like or comment.

[00:22:55]Appreciate it all. So, look at over here. All trading involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance. Not necessarily indicative of future results. This presentation intended to beformational educational fun entertaining. not a recommendation to be buying or selling any financial instrument including stocks, options, bonds, forex, futures, cryptos, treasuries.

[00:23:14]Welcome to the show everybody.

[00:23:17]Jumping over.

[00:23:26]Let's take a look. Look at this QQQ.

[00:23:29]Crazy popping out the top on Friday.

[00:23:32]Opening up higher here today.

[00:23:39]I was looking at something over the weekend and I just want to take a moment right here.

[00:23:47]I've pulled this chart up a few times and talked about it. We're sitting here. So, we are pull this over.

[00:23:58]We're scratching on this right here.

[00:24:03]We went from like 22.

[00:24:09]That was like 22 up here to 30 in about a month and a half. Well, not even a month and a half.

[00:24:17]Hardly. Like right at the end of March, we're down here at 22. Right here, Friday, we're at like just shy of 30,000.

[00:24:27]This number is not that far above us now. We just did that in a month and a half. If we could do this in another month, month and a half.

[00:24:37]Isn't that crazy? And that looks exactly like what we got going on right here.

[00:24:47]Look at this rip.

[00:24:51]You know when that was right there.

[00:25:02]It was the end of the.com bubble.

[00:25:09]I think we got big problems cooking.

[00:25:13]Big problems cooking. Look at this move.

[00:25:17]Look at the thing. Look at it go.

[00:25:20]That little pullback, it's the craziest thing. Little pullback, then a rip higher.

[00:25:28]We're probably on the final move.

[00:25:37]It's scary.

[00:25:40]Scary to me.

[00:25:43]I don't know if it scares y'all, but this could lead to a multi-deade sucky period for the market.

[00:25:53]Scares the crap out of me.

[00:26:00]Look at 30,000 right there.

[00:26:04]40. Not that far above us here.

[00:26:09]I mean, this is absolutely bananas.

[00:26:12]Another one of these.

[00:26:19]We're right up in the ballpark.

[00:26:24]Look at that time frame right there. End of June.

[00:26:32]You know, somebody mentioned that we might rally in the stock market made into June, maybe make a top.

[00:26:47]Talked about it being related to this right here.

[00:26:53]And then we may see a big pullback and this may go down to the 30 to 50k.

[00:27:04]So if we keep this party going right up into late June, this would be a time to be very very very concerned about what comes next.

[00:27:20]right there.

[00:27:24]Uh, hurricane season is usually later in the year. It's on into the fall, typically late summer, fall, east coast hurricane season.

[00:27:37]So, be careful here.

[00:27:43]This is starting to look stretched, but stretch can go even further stretched and we may start seeing some.

[00:27:51]Now, what's interesting here as we push higher right here, we're seeing over 5%.

[00:28:00]This is 500 companies right here in the S&P. Seeing over 5% of the this index right here of 500 companies making 52- week lows.

[00:28:18]52- week lows while we're pushing into the all-time high.

[00:28:25]It's kind of unprecedented.

[00:28:27]We've only seen that 1929 crash, do bubble, 2008 financial crisis, and now whatever this is going to be, we call it the AI AI revolution. I don't know.

[00:28:51]There's problems cooking.

[00:28:54]The higher this runs without any kind of pullback bigger than a sneeze really concerns me really really concerns me here.

[00:29:12]So, we're about to potentially take this thing into overdrive.

[00:29:20]Here's the thing about it. You don't want to miss out on the upside, but you also don't want to get caught with your pants down at the top.

[00:29:26]Keep your risk in check.

[00:29:29]It's time to start building the war chest for the inevitable pullback that's probably going to occur.

[00:29:37]Won't happen today, won't happen tomorrow, but it's it's cooking.

[00:29:43]We could see rotation into a couple more sectors before this actually comes apart or the wheels fall off the bus.

[00:29:51]So just be careful as always. Permacautious at 3100 gunning for it right up there.

[00:30:15]Oil still has the potential to break out here. Look at all these red candles.

[00:30:23]Still held the move up. The retrace held the 618.

[00:30:29]Cooking right here. We pop out over this high.

[00:30:33]First indication this high. Second indication this high. Third indication that we're probably going to embark on at least 150 and this thing could go a little crazy 150 because we have confluence here between two different fib lines.

[00:31:01]The crazy top could be 250.

[00:31:08]And that's going to crush everything could spike a depression, spark off. Now gold here, it's kind of the opposite chart here.

[00:31:23]We're holding that 618. This move down, this retrace, that move down would be the next thing I'm watching.

[00:31:35]I want to see this make a low lower than this low we made back in March, lower than 4,100.

[00:31:44]Now, if we break out above 5,000, this was probably it. And it's all clear going higher. Right now, we've sat there for one day, two days, three days, four days.

[00:32:01]Sat right there very easily.

[00:32:06]spark off the next selloff.

[00:32:08]Bitcoin still struggling to push on through.

[00:32:11]We were rallying a little bit yesterday.

[00:32:14]Happy Mother's Day. And then taking it right back this morning.

[00:32:18]Struggling to push through, but we are staying above. It's staying above the road map line so far. Just not getting any continuation.

[00:32:27]This party can continue right up into here.

[00:32:31]95 96 98,000 probably while the market's rallying up to ridiculous alltime highs.

[00:32:44]Keep kind of grinding right on this light schedule.

[00:32:49]get on up in here and then take that spill, the one I've been talking about, possibly down to these lows. And we may see this thing decouple like S&P and NASDAQ could continue to flush lower while Bitcoin finds a bottom here in October.

[00:33:16]Ethereum painting a less rosy picture.

[00:33:20]Not making highs, not broke breaking through the road map line. Just consolidating down here. Not being very enthusiastic.

[00:33:29]Bitcoin dominance actually making strides and getting higher here.

[00:33:39]Usually when we are in crypto winner, Bitcoin dominance takes a plunge, but right now it's holding up pretty well.

[00:33:50]That's at odds with what's happened historically.

[00:33:56]Dollar this thing still holding on to the potential to spike the 618 right here.

[00:34:05]We've tested this once, twice.

[00:34:10]three times. We keep riding this downtrend of what was a downturn of highs. Now it seems to be a downtrend of lows and we may have to ride this out a few more days until we can touch this 618 over here.

[00:34:26]So, if we're looking at it, it could be we could ride this on out for another 10 days or so, 12 days till we can actually spike down in this vicinity right in here.

[00:34:46]If we do that and we hold and we bounce, my target on this thing is like 120 to 130.

[00:34:57]I've already got my UU up on.

[00:35:01]Actually added a more added added more added another account.

[00:35:07]Got filled at $60 a contract on last week.

[00:35:17]It looks like my I was going to pop up the There it goes.

[00:35:24]See if I can get into the Now, the way I've played this, jumping out to January 2028, grabbing these 29 calls on UUP, maybe like DXY, it's not UUP, but UUP is the US dollar index bullish fund. It's not any kind of leverage.

[00:35:58]And this may dip.

[00:36:00]This one could dip on down in here. Give you a better opportunity as long as we hold that a solid upside potential here.

[00:36:13]And this is not like a next week type of trade either. I'm not playing this. I'm playing this out to 2028 and I'm picking it up as cheap as I possibly can here.

[00:36:26]So, if you can grab it for dirt cheap levels here, 60 cents, that's where I was picking it up.

[00:36:39]It's the opportunity. If you can get it for 50 cents, even better. The more you save on that, the better off you are on the bounce.

[00:36:48]ENKD pushing on higher.

[00:36:52]We have a bigger level up here at 745.

[00:36:56]If this party keeps on rocking, global liquidity keeps on pushing higher.

[00:37:01]Can see this rocking and rolling higher.

[00:37:04]Um, let's see.

[00:37:06]Trying to remember M2 M2SL.

[00:37:21]Look at this.

[00:37:28]So, this is this takes money supply out of the equation.

[00:37:34]How is the S&P priced within by taking inflation out?

[00:37:41]Look what we had over here.

[00:37:43]Epic run higher topped out.

[00:37:50]Look at this.

[00:37:54]Draw this across.

[00:37:58]Uh oh.

[00:38:03]For anybody that doesn't think that S&P is ridiculous right now, there's a problem.

[00:38:18]That's a little bit crazy.

[00:38:28]Little bit crazy.

[00:38:30]>> [snorts] >> S&P 500 divided by the into money supply.

[00:38:37]Let's put it in relative terms. Take inflation out of the equation.

[00:38:46]We just now recovered the dot highs on an inflation adjusted basis.

[00:38:54]Can we go higher from here or is this about to equalize again this is, you know, place your bets. I guess I started real money trading right back over here and I've been churning through the whole way.

[00:39:29]This one you do the same thing over here. We broke out a while back, but I'm sure it's not a bubble, right?

[00:39:45]So, be careful.

[00:39:48]Just NASDAQ divided by the money supply.

[00:39:54]So, NASDAQ prices relative to the money supply. We're getting up there.

[00:40:04]Now, let's take a look at some of the mag 7 charts here. Maybe we should call it mag 8, mag 9, mag 10. Oh, got close to the 296 target. 295 target. Really close on Friday.

[00:40:18]That high was 29476.

[00:40:22]24 cents off 295. I've been saying 295 for a long time.

[00:40:27]That was darn close. Still expect it to hit. Amazon arcing back down.

[00:40:34]We may need to retest the breakout classic.

[00:40:41]Come up to the resistance and go into consolidation.

[00:40:47]If we can hold on to this down here, we push higher. We don't hold on to this.

[00:40:52]Watch out below.

[00:40:55]Google still climbing the fib ladder.

[00:41:00]Didn't tag 405 yet. 405 next upside. And then 444, 474, 516, 566. This is getting into the realm of the law of big numbers, though.

[00:41:14]What do I mean by that?

[00:41:18]Google sitting here $4.75 trillion. How do we double the price of Google?

[00:41:27]Takes $4.75 trillion of money from somewhere to push this thing higher. Same thing with big dog Nvidia here about to be a $5 trillion company.

[00:41:46]To do that, to double this share price to $400 a share takes $5 trillion.

[00:41:56]It's why Apple has not really been making giant moves. Microsoft popped up and then got punished.

[00:42:07]Amazon grinding higher.

[00:42:10]These are, you know, why don't these companies still make giant moves is because because the numbers got so big?

[00:42:18]Where does where do all these trillions of dollars come from?

[00:42:24]As we see more trillion dollar companies potentially popping on the board, SpaceX, Enthropic, Open AAI, where does that money flow out of to push them higher?

[00:42:38]So be careful. Law of big numbers. Once the numbers get so big, the big gains slow down.

[00:42:49]It's unlikely that any of these companies right here are going to 10x again in any kind of short time frame.

[00:42:58]Meta still gunning for that 580 retest.

[00:43:02]Microsoft still gunning for that lower low probably below 344.

[00:43:09]Nvidia, did we tag 220 this morning?

[00:43:15]Like we did tag that first 1448 target 220 228 above that and then we may see this similar to Amazon may come back to retest this breakout.

[00:43:30]If this doesn't hold, we'll probably come back and retest the breakout from back in 2024 where we set the highs late 24 at about a 150 area.

[00:43:42]Salon was pushing up into the 618 there on Friday.

[00:43:49]We can push on through.

[00:43:52]Initial target right up here at 520.

[00:43:58]517 520 540 above that 620 above that 6 615 above that Netflix looking ugly here fully testing this 618 this morning we can hold it and bounce got this gap down resistance we got to go beat on the way to this test at 120 if we don't hold on to this right probably coming on down to the 50 the 60 zone on Netflix.

[00:44:37]Now I go pull gainers things moving up $2 more in the pre-market. Put them on the gainers list. I go pull decliners things moving down $2 more and put them on a decliner list. I bring a few setups for us to look at and hunt for some opportunities here. So looking at the gainers list, Blummentum just been a beast. Just keeps going up. Not that much volatility, but those moves are pretty big. Regardless, VCX not enough to do much with there. Be careful. MU, it's going straight freaking up exponential.

[00:45:13]Be careful. Next big resistance up here at 893.

[00:45:19]Intel with leverage going straight freaking up. Oh, look at that move. It's just like that.

[00:45:28]Look at that. No volatility in that move.

[00:45:32]Look at this.

[00:45:37]That's a short squeeze.

[00:45:40]It's an organized short squeeze.

[00:45:43]That's what happened here.

[00:45:46]organized short squeeze and then how pretty much the same thing here.

[00:46:01]Whatever reason people will shorten it organized short squeeze.

[00:46:09]When this ends it's going to be ugly.

[00:46:13]Be careful.

[00:46:17]MRNA probably coming back up to retest this downtrend line.

[00:46:26]We break out. We can see large upside.

[00:46:30]That thing is this anti virus going to get out of control? I don't know. Let's see.

[00:46:39]FUTU potential for this to break on lower 1C just chop into the road map line. We can pop on up above this 618 and gap down. 402 could be the upside, but if we turn down could get pretty ugly. MPC did not hit the road map line right here.

[00:47:12]did on a 4 hour chart.

[00:47:17]263 potential upside there.

[00:47:21]Texas Instruments, as I talked about a while back, we're coming up into that 320 target area.

[00:47:33]We can hold on to that potentially be up on the 400 area.

[00:47:49]That's a downtrend. Be careful. Not fond of that.

[00:47:57]This thing going crazy today. Making crazy pops.

[00:48:02]Robin Hood Ventures Fund. You want to get exposure to things that Robin Hood says they have exposure to. Here you go.

[00:48:09]Off book stuff, Angel Investing.

[00:48:14]That's your opportunity right there.

[00:48:18]ESTs. Maybe we bottomed. Came up a little shy of where I thought we might bottom, but that could be it. That's all we needed was a lower low.

[00:48:30]could be on the path for 143.

[00:48:41]Going to have to beat that section of highs right there. We can get above that 143. I am strongly of the opinion that we're going to see if we keep this party going on NASDAQ, we're going to see a rotation to materials and then probably space stocks as SpaceX comes public next month. I think this party probably keeps going through the big IPOs.

[00:49:11]I don't know. Um, it depends on the timeline for Anthropic and OpenAI. If they can get their crap together and get their IPOs public, they'll probably catch it. If they stall out past August, I don't know if they can catch it.

[00:49:27]So, they need to get their crap together. I I would almost say if you go past much past July, you might miss out on this opportunity for the upside.

[00:49:39]So stuff like MP materials probably going to start making crazy moves higher FCX is already starting to run here.

[00:49:53]So we can see this run in materials and then run in space stocks rocket lab.

[00:49:59]It's been one of my favorites and it's already hitting the targets here on this move. Beautiful. Only took two days to go from the 6.8 8 right up to the target.

[00:50:10]Craziness. It didn't roll over there.

[00:50:12]So, beautiful upside.

[00:50:17]Didn't trade this pop. That's the I traded the last two bounces off the road map line. I just wasn't feeling this one for whatever reason.

[00:50:28]And other stuff.

[00:50:32]I'm starting to get a little concerned, I guess you might say, especially when you look at the value of the NASDAQ and the S&P divided by the money supply.

[00:50:45]Starting to be a little bit concerned.

[00:50:46]I'm starting to, you know, personally, I'm starting to liquidate things I've held on to for a long time that have gains just looking at it being like, you know, I'd rather have that in cash.

[00:51:00]And just all the warning signs are the same warning signs that we had before, two big crashes before. The COVID crash was a bit different thing. I just knew something wasn't right in the market.

[00:51:17]right here. I can see the bubble. I saw the bubble in the housing crisis. I saw the bubble in the dot crisis. I can see the bubble in the AI stuff. It's just when does the bubble come to an end?

[00:51:27]It's probably higher.

[00:51:30]Probably got more to go.

[00:51:32]But one day is going to be the top and we won't look back for probably two decades, maybe maybe longer before we go higher again.

[00:51:44]So be careful.

[00:51:46]Bu cooking right here. 176 would be the upside.

[00:51:50]Amba 1.5 on the beta. AMA has a nice bounce to it, too. Here, here's the high. Here's the low. It's going to hit a top here, but 106 if we can break on out. ERX probably got to come back to the road map line. BW just keeps chugging higher.

[00:52:16]SLV making a little bounce today.

[00:52:19]Be careful. That can roll on down.

[00:52:25]Doesn't have to, but it be careful.

[00:52:29]This thing can roll on down.

[00:52:36]Q at the targets. No road map line. Be careful. Decliners ASML hit the target. Watch out for the retrace. Applovin hitting resistance at the road map line can easily make an extension lower.

[00:52:54]That target would be down here around 22024 to 270. That's a big fat range. Be careful.

[00:53:04]CLS was declining. Now it's popping.

[00:53:07]Means it played out to the upside. So, watch out for the retrace here. TSM just keeps rocking higher arm.

[00:53:16]If we can if if this watermelon seed squeeze keeps playing out and this wasn't a fake breakout like 476 target DDOG.

[00:53:29]This is why I warn like this was a fake breakout. Should have rocketed off. It didn't. It came back and retested the uptrend of lows. Now we're on the breakout for DDOG and if we take off should be up here around 4 to 500 should be the target.

[00:53:49]Baba churning around in here. PLTR saw Michael Bur really thinks this thing is over the ski tips. put down huge shorts on PLTR and Nvidia.

[00:54:06]Multi- hundreds of millions of dollars.

[00:54:11]PNW 238 would be the upside targets.

[00:54:16]Snow [snorts] think I'm going to step off the train here.

[00:54:21]Looks good for a pop back up in this 180 to 200 area, but I was in down here at 100 110. I may just hop off the train.

[00:54:34]Forget it. This looks when you zoom out and look at it, looks like it failed to break out, dip below.

[00:54:40]This doesn't look like we're going higher. Looks like we're probably going to go lower.

[00:54:46]CCJ That can easily take another swing lower here somewhere around 96 UR.

[00:55:08]Look for this to pop on up in this 65 area, but I don't know. Can it do it?

[00:55:12]Like it's it's got the setup like it's got the bounce potential right up in there.

[00:55:20]AVAV pushing on lower for that bottom.

[00:55:24]Might be down around 152. And if we don't hold that, may come on down here to like 116.

[00:55:32]POD. Yikes.

[00:55:35]D starting to go exponential to the downside. All right, I got three setups here.

[00:55:44]May or may not be any good. I didn't check them. I just loaded them up, threw them on the list, and came live.

[00:55:53]There's the high. Here's the low.

[00:55:54]There's the bounce. Target 3350. No statistics. So, the average for these for a ton of these trades, 75 1.2 75% profitable win rates 1.2 to price tens of thousands of these back tested on the daily chart.

[00:56:19]Now, I rolled out a an update to Apollo last week, which takes the same price pattern right here. Does looks for it on the 30 minute time frame.

[00:56:28]A few people got confused about what I actually did, what what it actually means. I'll talk about that here in a minute. This one actually fired off a couple times here and 154 target MPK looks reasonable.

[00:56:41]And then PRDO didn't break down actually getting the bounce. Here's the high. Here's the low.

[00:56:51]Entry point 39 target 177 1.4 and statistics just marginal there. So, I rolled out this update. I I mentioned it last week on the show here. I was pretty excited about it. Now it gives you a quality rating.

[00:57:13]They called it a quality rating. Now a few people are confusing what this really means. It's not necessarily the quality of the riskreward and all that stuff.

[00:57:26]This rating right here has to do with the likelihood given 30 different parameters of the setup. A lot of it's not even on the chart.

[00:57:39]30 different parameters. The likelihood that this is to move on to the target instead of the stop.

[00:57:47]Now, one up here that caused a lot of debate on Friday. This one was rated exceptional.

[00:57:58]It's because it was pretty sure it was going to make a three cent higher move.

[00:58:02]Share upside 3 cents before it went down a dollar six.

[00:58:09]This is only rating the quality as far as the potential to go higher.

[00:58:17]Now the key for this thing, it's only on the Apollo main 30 minute algorithm at this point. It's going to take some work to build this model for other time frames.

[00:58:34]Let me uh roll up here and grab this really quickly. Pop this out.

[00:58:41]Pull it over.

[00:58:43]So, what this thing did or what I did with this thing, I used AI. I've been using AI agents to to help me break this down. This thing went and dug into a historical database, pulled out 522,897 historical 30 minute bounce signals out of 6,565 tickers.

[00:59:09]This was not just like pulled a couple dozen and trained something. This thing worked on this for a long time.

[00:59:18]522,897.

[00:59:20]And this is just 30 minute signals. Not not dailies, not hourlies, not five minutes, not one minutes. There's only 30 minute setups.

[00:59:30]And one, some of these tickers don't even aren't even tickers anymore that were in this historic database.

[00:59:37]Now, historically, we have about a 75% win rate on this pattern. All time frames, all tickers. I talk about that all the time. Now any given ticker may have a historical bias for following the trend pullback continuation pattern or not. Now what this did was it went through all these setups looked at tons of parameters like 30 different parameters and kind of tried to figure out based on those 30 things is there are there any commonalities between the ones that win and commonalities between the ones that lose. and it found some commonalities and it created this threshold right here.

[01:00:17]If it says skip, it just means it's the historical 75% win rate. Could be less, you know, it could be more likely to lose. If it says exceptional, it's saying that it has a higher potential win rate based on the factors that are part of the setup right now.

[01:00:39]That's all it means. It's not saying that the rest of the setup is great.

[01:00:44]It's not saying it's tradable. It's not saying it's the best of the best. It's just saying it's more likely to hit the target than the average.

[01:00:56]So hopey that helps some people right there. It's uh and it's just it's experimental. Like I just turned it on last week. I just got it built in a what I thought was an interesting reliable way to use last week and I immediately turned it on for everybody this part of Apollo.

[01:01:20]Now it'll take me I burned 150 million tokens building that and I was using a model that's comparable to Opus 4.6. OPU 4.6 cost like $15 per million tokens.

[01:01:36]So, I burned 150 million tokens on the AI agents build net. Plus, it took like a whole day worth of time on a 32 core 4 point whatever gigahertz machine with 128 gigs of RAM. And to build that kind of thing for Echo Trades Triple Th Trader Cashbot, it's going to take some effort. So, how did I get it?

[01:02:05]me and a lot of conversations about statistics and AI machine learning with AI agents. I bought a 24-year historical database. It took it two weeks just to pro process the historical database into a form that we could use for doing this.

[01:02:26]I spent a lot of effort in the background doing this. So, how do you get it? Buy Apollo. you want to get access to it and um yeah, you can call my team.

[01:02:39]I I don't think the phone number is in the description, but the phone number is in Discord. Let me see see if I have any presentation up from the team.

[01:02:52]I mean, I'm not here to sell anything for anybody.

[01:02:57]I'm not trying to sell anything.

[01:02:59]Just telling you how it works.

[01:03:01]Yeah, all access thing. If you want access to everything, you know, all access link is in the description.

[01:03:09]Let me see.

[01:03:18]Let me see. Let me see.

[01:03:22]I haven't done a I haven't even done a sales presentation in a long time.

[01:03:37]The last time I did Apollo, it was quite a while ago.

[01:03:44]Jeffrey.com/apollo, all lowercase. I'll throw it in the chat if you're if you're interested.

[01:03:58]Yeah, it's a 32 core machine running four. It's a i9 and uh I bought it specifically to build this model. I bought it last year.

[01:04:10]I think it was last year and I've been working on it. Like this thing's mostly crunched on that for the last year and a half and these AI agents have finally got good enough that everything came together in a synergy.

[01:04:30]I just wasn't com getting the dots completed in what needed to happen. And they can code so much faster. So, if you think about it, 150 million tokens I burned just last week doing this final little push.

[01:04:46]If if I paid the Opus prices, Opus 46 or whatever from Anthropic, I was using the Claw desktop from Anthropic. I actually had a different model plugged into it, but 150 million tokens, 15 bucks.

[01:05:02]That's what that would have cost if you paid anthropic prices to do that final model build.

[01:05:12]And that's on on top of the local computer time and the database that I bought. So, crazy stuff. Crazy stuff. All right, let's look at Spy. See if we can figure out where the gamma might go. Working on building gamma tools.

[01:05:31]We'll see what I can get to on that front.

[01:05:36]I did hit a token limit, too. Last week.

[01:05:42]And there's the heat map.

[01:05:47]Looking ugly today.

[01:05:51]The spy.

[01:05:54]Here's the heat map. Bullflow.io. Links in the description here. Billion dollar level.

[01:06:00]But I don't like these spotty levels down here. So I'm gonna have to go 730 and 745.

[01:06:06]For whatever reason, that 140 million is not colored in dark. So 7:30 to 745.

[01:06:16]It's not a giant range.

[01:06:21]Just about where I threw it on there.

[01:06:25]As far as the big level goes, 740, it's what we're cooking on right now.

[01:06:32]It doesn't have to hold here. We can just keep this party rallying higher.

[01:06:38]No big levels tomorrow. Hardly anything out here longer than today. That's the whole reason we look at this zero day option plays.

[01:06:50]There's that big 740 level and almost no call. I mean almost no put players relative to these giant call plays.

[01:07:01]Really the big calls are today already.

[01:07:06]So if the market holds in here probably won't go much through 740 but lately that's not had much effect on it. So that's by Let's take a look at the cues.

[01:07:22]Go to the heat map.

[01:07:26]Save this baby. Flip over to cues and see what we got cooking. This one has a big level out here. We've had a big level for the May expiration for a while. And it looks like if we keep this party going, could be up here at 720, which well, it's weird to see the gaps in here. Maybe this thing is heading right up in here.

[01:07:53]And it can happen. We've seen it happen on Wednesday or Thursday and then it bleed off by Friday. So if you're going to play for that, don't play for it necessarily on Friday. Although if you want to make sure your options have enough time, maybe you want to play for it with the 18th just in case it runs into Friday. But could be a debit spread. You could grab like a 715, 720, get up in there. You can play if it just calls.

[01:08:22]Gets a little pricey though.

[01:08:25]So the bubble for today though, probably going to place it at 725 and down to 700. It's pretty fat one today.

[01:08:39]Down to 700. Up to 725.

[01:08:48]Not that I believe that this is going to be all crazy in this zone, but it does with the big levels in there does leave opportunity for craziness to occur. I'm going to put this up here at 720.

[01:09:04]Probably don't have anything better than that on the levels.

[01:09:16]710.

[01:09:21]Put one at 710. See, does seem to be some.

[01:09:27]It's probably because it's right where we opened.

[01:09:32]So, I'll leave the level there and this level up here where if we're going to continue higher, we'll probably pin up here around 720 today.

[01:09:42]That's what we got cooking. I'm going to be on a round table here in about 30 minutes. I don't even have a link for it. So, watch out, I guess, for emails. If you're on the email list, sorry, I don't have a link. I I just, you know, nobody gave me a link for it. So, I literally don't have any way to give you a link to join it.

[01:10:05]Yeah.

[01:10:08]So, watch out for, you know, if you're on my text list, there'll be a message about text. from my email list which is there's a link in the description for the email list. If you're on that should be emails about joining for the round table.

[01:10:21]So have a great day everybody.