Ui Path Stock is a Sleeping GIANT... (Wall Street is Wrong)

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]UiPath is probably the most misunderstood stock on the markets right now. Wall Street just genuinely does not understand the company, the technology, and what's coming next. I believe UiPath is a 10 to 30x opportunity from here.

[00:00:20]The company's about a $4 billion market cap, give or take, right now. I'm going to explain why that is in today's episode. The one big risk for UiPath.

[00:00:32]First and foremost, you have to understand the context of the SAS apocalypse. The SAS apocalypse this and that. And we've heard a lot about the SAS apocalypse. The fact of the matter is the SAS apocalypse is pretty erroneous to begin with. Yes, there are going to be some losers. Adobe is one that I can point to that might not exist 20 years from now. It probably will, but it's not something that is missionritical.

[00:01:04]Large language models, if they continue to get it better and better, are going to create, you know, applications that can do what Adobe can do. But for a lot of the SAS apocalypse victims, it's like what Jensen Wong said a couple of weeks ago.

[00:01:22]If you had a humanoid robot and you told that robot to microwave you some ramen noodles, you wouldn't expect the robot to build a new microwave, would you?

[00:01:36]You'd expect the robot to put some water in the damn noodles, put it in your existing microwave, and microwave the damn noodles. Okay, that was such a great example from Jensen Wong at the the peak of the SAS apocalypse because it really highlights something. It's about the cost structure.

[00:01:56]If you are Walmart, let's say, and you want to replicate Service Now, could you probably do that? Yes, eventually. It's going to take some time. It's not going to happen overnight, but could you do that? Probably. Is it going to cost you billions of dollars to do that?

[00:02:16]Probably.

[00:02:19]Whereas it might cost you $50 million to use Service Now per year. It would take 20 years to pay off a $1 billion investment that Walmart would have to make to theoretically build a service now. Or it would take 40 years to pay that off if it cost $2 billion. the cost structure does not make sense. Now, that's just the overarching view for a lot of software companies. I know there's other issues like pricing power and and margins and all of that. That's a that's a different conversation, but the SAS apocalypse simply from that perspective does not make a lot of sense. Now, couple that with UiPath.

[00:03:05]UPath is RPA technology. They are the monopoly. They dominate the markets in RPA. It stands for robotic process automation. Basically doing what a robot would do in a factory, the same task over and over again. But RPA is doing it online. So moving numbers from this column to this column or from this application to that application. Okay.

[00:03:31]Well, that's very cheap to run. Okay.

[00:03:35]RPA technology typically for like a Walmart a a bot with RPA is going to do that thousands of times a day. To say that you're going to use an AI agent instead to do that would increase the cost structure likely over 10x. You're not going to do the same task that you could previously do with an RPA bot now with an AI agent and have it cost 10 times more. Okay? It would be like, you know, like you pack up your house and you're moving to a new house. You wouldn't rent a double wide semi-tra to haul your You're going to rent a U-Haul. You're going to haul it with a trailer that you have hooked up to your truck. Okay? You're not going to spend 10 times more to do the same thing at a greater inconvenience. It's not going to happen. So from the premise that vibe coding solutions are going to displace software just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[00:04:42]You can see here that a traditional RPA bot cost about $10,000 per bot annually. If you are trying to do the same kind of activities, the same amount with a, you know, clawbot, that's going to cost you over $10,000 a month.

[00:05:03]Heavy usage here can spend $12,000 per month or more on API tokens to do what an RPA bot would do. It it it just makes no sense. But we have to start thinking bigger picture here. The bullcase with UiPath is not RPA technology. Yes, it is. But it's the addition of AI agents.

[00:05:26]See, what a lot of people don't understand is UiPath has been preparing for this moment for years.

[00:05:35]For, you know, UiPath was preparing for AI agents before you knew what they were. Now, what UiPath came to realize is is that when you're using RPA bots, they're monopoly business. They're used by 80% of Fortune 100 companies around the world. Like, UiPath is very embedded in company operations right now. Okay?

[00:05:59]They are the monopoly for RPA. But UiPath realized that when you combine AI agents, RPA technology, humans, and external systems into a workflow together, you can dramatically increase the use case scenarios of just RPA bots or just agents or just a orchestration platform. When you combine the two, it's game changer. So, UiPath has their maestro platform. Okay, this is the orchestration layer. So what companies do effectively is if they're using RPA technology, they can add on bots to do to expand those capabilities from their existing RPA bots. And the orchestration layer allows for security, governance, workflow management, observability, reporting, all of the things that are essential to adopting AI agents. See, a company like Walmart, they're never ever going to just start adopting AI agents with some vibecoded software. The risk is too high. Walmart CEO, something goes wrong, he's losing his job. Nobody is going to do that. You have to have an orchestration platform here for security governance, you know, monitor these agents, reverse damage that agents do that they're not supposed to. Think about this separately. AI agents would be used for thinking, deciding, adopting. RPA robots in conjunction with agents would be used for execution and integration. the people side of it, forms, approvals, action center, and then external APIs and and systems. So for serious organizations out there, if they want to adopt AI agents, they're going to do so with UiPath, with RPA technology that is a lot cheaper, that is more like click and drag. Click and drag, click and drag, taking the human aspect out of monitoring every decision while still having that human oversight, that orchestration. personally believe AI agents is not a winner takes all or winner takes most market. I like to compare this to Walmart because I think Walmart is a good way to think about it.

[00:08:28]It's a very perceivably trustworthy business. You know, their online presence. They're the largest employer in America. They're a really good example to make with what I'm going to say next. There's no way in hell that Walmart is going to vibe code their own solutions or try to do this or that.

[00:08:50]Walmart, they would rather pay more and have certain guarantees in place that things aren't going to go haywire. Okay.

[00:08:59]Well, Walmart uses UiPath. They use Service Now. They use Salesforce.

[00:09:08]UiPath is not going to get all of the the agents like UiPath is not going to steal the show from Service Now or or Salesforce, right? Same is true for Service Now and Salesforce, right?

[00:09:20]Walmart is going to add on agents where it makes sense to do so with their existing RPA technology. That could be like maybe UiPath moves data from Word to Excel for Walmart today. Maybe they could add on some agents to take that data to invoices or to returns or whatever, right? Add on additional capabilities with UiPath. Same is true for Service Now and Salesforce. So, now that all of that is out of the way, hopefully we understand this. Um, I want to share this post with you guys that I that I wrote on X um, last night actually because I I'm seeing so many people that are bearish on path that really just don't understand the company or the SAS apocalypse in general, right? Like 99% of Wall Street, I would say 90% of Wall Street doesn't fully understand the SAS apocalypse anyways. And then up to like 99% of people on Wall Street, they don't understand UiPath's uh relationship to that, right? They don't understand like is UiPath actually at risk from AI? Are they a winner from AI? People just don't understand. So, I wrote this. Path is one of my largest investments. Let me tell you why. It's a 10 to 30x from here. First off, Path is a reinvention story. Path was preparing for AI agents years before the technology was actually here. Why? Good management. Management realized the growth in RPA was saturated. They had to do something else. Path is the RPA monopoly. Companies either reinvent themselves or become value and dividend stocks. Here is the life cycle of a company as followed. Growth to value to reinvent to growth. Every single MAG7 stock has done this many times over again. Good companies do or become value stocks forever until someone takes the market forever. Path seen this coming during the transition from growth to value then to reinvention.

[00:11:29]The multiples for companies get really cheap. That's where we are now for path.

[00:11:34]Flipping to the AI argument, Wall Street is wrong. Sure, is Anthropic and Claude going to have a seat at the table? Of course. Is everything going to be vibecoded? No. In fact, for the companies that UiPath serve, most of them will add agents with UiPath, Service Now, Salesforce, etc. This is not a winner takes most market. Why? One answer here, risk. Not heard a single company say they are cancelling their software subscriptions to vibe code their own. The risk is too high. The cost is too high. Agents will mess up.

[00:12:08]They will become compromised. The only thing I'm hearing from mid and large companies is I would rather pay more for the security and certainty. No CEO CEO anywhere is going to risk his career on new tech from new companies and vibecoded solutions. AI agents need security, governance, oversight, workflow management, trust layers, multi-system adoption, etc. This is what UiPath has been preparing for for years.

[00:12:33]It comes at a time in which there are macroeconomic issues like oil and midterms causing fear, Trump tweets, and genuine AI disruption concerns and basic workflow tools. This has pushed UiPath to extremely low valuations. It's the cheapest stock I can find on the stock market, period. It has a PEG ratio of 0.3.

[00:12:53]That's That's crazy. That doesn't even make sense.

[00:12:57]2027 EPS, which would be fiscal 2028 EPS, they're trading at a PE multiple of nine, assuming no EPS beats on earnings.

[00:13:07]Assuming no beats, they're trading at a nine PE multiple for next year's earnings. So by December, the stock will have a forward multiple of nine. The S&P is at like 22 23. Okay. At the same time, before the AI revolution and agent revolution, the company began focusing on profitability. So you have a founder-led company, 20% owner by the way, dawn of the AI agent revolution they have been preparing years for.

[00:13:33]Trades at onethird of the S&P's PE multiple based on my EPS modeling. A company that was already focused on profitability, irrational fear in the sector, 1.7 billion in cash, zero debt, $500 million share repurchase program after completion of 1 billion prior program. 13F filing showing institutional accumulation. My fair value sits at $24 by December of 2026 and closer to $35 to $60 by the end of next year based on adoption speeds of AI agents. Here's the real risk for UiPath.

[00:14:07]The real risk is not disruption. It's not none of that The real risk for UiPath is that companies don't adopt AI agents fast enough and the stock sits in a quote unquote slower growth phase.

[00:14:21]Still, there are levers the company could pull to add shareholder value, but that's the risk. The risk is that companies do not adopt this technology fast enough. Not that they don't adopt it with UiPath, that they don't adopt it in general, like large enterprises, the companies that move the needle for enterprise software. That's the risk, not enthropic cannibalizing the business. Quote, be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful. And you guys can see the uh latest 13F filings that actually show one of the biggest rises in institutional uh ownership in a long time. This takes you back to levels you have really not seen since uh 2024.

[00:15:05]Another, you know, good quarter of institutional ownership. You're going to be at new all-time highs for positioning. And I think those institutions that are buying UiPath probably understand exactly what I'm talking about in this video. So to bottom line this, UiPath is not a SAS apocalypse victim. This is the blessing they've been waiting for. UiPath is in this reinvention stage where they're no longer a growth company from a a numbers perspective. Yeah, they they do grow a lot if you include like the rule of 40, like the EPS growth and revenue growth.

[00:15:44]They're growing close to 40 um percent if you combine the two, maybe a little bit over that. Um that's why the PEG ratio is so cheap because earnings are growing so fast. It's not a topline revenue story at at this moment. But as AI agents pick up, as adoption picks up, as I think it will, um you you are going to see numbers explode higher for this company, you are going to see the stock, you know, rerate potentially multiple times over again. Imagine if UiPath once uh the SAS apocalypse loser is actually a main orchestration layer for AI agents for major companies.

[00:16:28]That's that's a game changer. Now, it's not a guarantee, but you can see when you know when the stock's trading based on my numbers for next year, by this December, they're going to be trading with a PE multiple of about seven. I believe they're going to do about a$120 of EPS next year. So by December, you're looking at a stock that has a whopping valuation of it's an eight 8.06x PE multiple for next year's numbers by December.

[00:17:04]uh you know I think the the risk is priced in you know and if they are successful in becoming a major player in AI agent orchestration assuming adoption does start to hit the scurve okay we're going to know more when they report earnings I believe the 28th that's going to tell us a lot then you know UiPath has the potential to be a multibagger winner here and you know I I think it's already priced as if they're a loser and that is simply not true in my opinion. Again, I do want to say my price targets for next year are between $35 and $60 per share. That's because you don't really know how fast the adoption wave is is is is going to kick in. If if a if companies really start adopting this year, then next year you're going to be at the high-end range in the 60s, right? numbers are going to explode, growth is going to explode, multiples are going to rerate. Okay? If adoption takes longer, but there's some adoption, that's where you're in like the 40s, 50s. If there's slower than expected adoption, that's where you're in like the 30s, maybe the high 20s for next year, but that's still, you know, the stock's $9. So, uh, that's why UiPath is one of the most interesting stocks on the market today. Hit that like button. Let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next