50-year mortgages, while marketed as a solution to housing affordability, actually double the total interest paid over the loan's lifetime, undermine equity accumulation, and create multi-generational debt burdens; despite minimal monthly payment savings (approximately $235/month on a $320,000 loan), the policy benefits primarily serve to prop up housing prices for existing homeowners and institutional investors, while introducing systemic financial risks and delaying market corrections that could benefit future generations.
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Okay, 50-year mortgages are even dumber than you think.
I think they're pretty dumb.
>> [laughter] >> I think they're pretty dumb, so you're going to have to really convince me.
The idea of a 50-year mortgage was not so subtly floated to the American public. Now, almost everybody immediately called this out for being a really dumb idea and for a good reason.
50-year mortgages will effectively double the total interest people pay on their homes. They will undermine equity accumulation. It will make the housing market more rigid than it already is, introduce significant structural risks to the financial system. Okay.
>> Okay. Oh, and this whole thing will just make homes more expensive than they already are. The average first-time home buyer is now 40 years old. Adding on a 50-year mortgage at that age means that statistically people will still be making their payments 11 years after they are dead.
>> Awesome.
>> This is not to mention that if we still really thought it was worth trying, other countries have already done that for us and the results were pretty disastrous. Now, you probably already knew all of these issues. Canada?
But, the problems that come with a 50-year mortgage go much, much deeper than this and this raises two important questions. If 50-year mortgages are such a threat to our economic system, then how exactly did we decide that 30 years was the ideal? But, perhaps the more important question is, if this is so obviously a dumb idea, who stands to profit the most by making it happen?
According to a new report, the impact of rising interest rates [music] ON NEW MORTGAGES >> [screaming] >> COULD PUT HOME OWNERSHIP beyond the reach for many. need to be earning an extra $17,500 this year to afford a home just compared to last year. [music] >> In an attempt to make home buying more affordable, President Trump floated this idea of a 50-year mortgage.
>> That's a lot more interest, but lower monthly payments. What do you think?
Girl, bye.
>> [laughter] >> Okay.
Wait, queen.
Wait, she's she slay. Oh my god, yes.
She summed it up. She She summed it up.
Is this ASU? Oh my gosh, she's from ASU?
Slay.
If you're homeless, why don't you just buy a house? Good advice from chat, too.
You're also but lower monthly payments.
What do you think? Girl, bye.
Okay. She covered the Southwest. She summed it up in Listen, I made a video about this. How long was my I made a video about this.
Big A clips.
My video was 11 minutes 27 long. How many works make a video about this? 15 minutes long. She summed it up in 4 seconds.
>> [laughter] >> THAT'S THE GEN Z DIFFERENCE, BRO. Just get it into a short. I Why do we need a long form it?
It's just dumb.
out of the way first. And the biggest issue >> Unless she was saying girl b u y bye.
>> [laughter] >> And she was running off to get a 50-year mortgage. In which case, I'd have to disagree.
In which case, I'd have to disagree.
Um fall is that 50-year mortgages won't make homes more affordable. In fact, they will probably do the opposite. In a perfect world, being able to spread your payments out over an extra 20 years should lower your monthly payment. But even with the optimistic numbers, the difference would not be nearly as large as you might expect. Assuming a very competitive 6% interest rate on a $320,000 loan used to buy a $400,000 house, your monthly payment on a 30-year mortgage would be $1,919.
>> Mhm. If, however, you could spread that out over 50 years, then your monthly payments would fall to $1,685.
A savings of $235 a month.
>> Cheaper. Which is not that much for almost doubling the total loan term and the amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.
>> your future self.
>> Most people have just pointed to the simple arithmetic and written the whole thing off as a big waste of time.
But, to play devil's advocate and give this the best possible chance of making some sense, some people will try to make the argument first that if you take those monthly savings and invest them into the stock market, your returns could be higher than your interest payments, letting you profit off the difference and putting you in a better financial situation.
>> Well, I know he's devil's advocating, and so I respect that, but I hate this argument on so many things, which is like never ever pay off your debt, always just put the money in the stock market cuz it's guaranteed going to go up more than >> [laughter] [gasps] >> It's not a guarantee.
It's not People always like, well, I should never pay down my student loans or my car loan or my house loan or my credit card loans. I'll just take the extra money I would have spent, and I'm going to earn more than the interest cost.
And it's like, no, maybe, but it's if you don't, then you're really It's not a guaranteed 10%. Even, by the way, you know, my big argument is that like the data we use on that is from 100 years of American global dominance.
>> [laughter] >> And so, you know, even these numbers are kind of suspect. If you use the UK numbers from their their 100 years, it's a lot different than 100 years after.
But, okay. But, even if you'd say that that's the same thing, it's going to hold true for the future, it wasn't 10% every year. It's not like 10 10 10 10 10. It averaged 10%. Some years are down 20 to 30.
Some years are up 40. You know what I'm saying? It averages 10. You could have some really bad years.
The long term was average 10%.
Um later in life. Right now, less wealthy households overwhelmingly have their wealth tied up in their home. Of course, poorer households are less likely to own their own home, but they are even less likely to own a significant amount of financial assets.
If people actually took these monthly savings and invested them diligently into the stock market, then not only could it theoretically improve the balance of wealth amongst lower income households, it could also make it easier for first-time buyers to get into the market in the first place. $235 a month invested over 50 years could be $3.7 million assuming historic market rates of return, which is over 10 times more than the additional interest a borrower would pay on their 50-year mortgage.
However, that is if absolutely everything went perfectly. And I already know what all of you live streamers are saying to your chatters right this very second. Almost nobody taking out a 50-year [laughter] mortgage is going to have this level of financial discipline.
>> [laughter] >> I'm done with this. I'm done with this loop. I'm done with this A green coffee zilla atrium circle jerk.
Okay? How many works circle jerk? Well, that's [ __ ] Where it where this is all This is getting upset This is getting incestuous.
This is getting incestuous.
>> [laughter] >> It's getting incestuous, bro. It's a ouroboros. I'm going to I'm taking the other side now.
Almost I'm putting out big eclipse about how Trump's killing it. And the economy's [laughter] great.
>> [gasps] >> I'm going to talk about the AI boom, bro. I'm talking about how I I'm I'm mixing it up, bro. We got to get some uh Reason I even bothered That's very funny. That's very funny.
with the devil's advocate stick it all is because if these financial products do come to market, this is exactly how they are going to be sold to people.
That's actually very funny. I uh You think he was I feel like he was thinking >> [laughter] >> I feel like cuz he's commenting on the big A clips. I feel like he's thinking about this response. I don't know. Is anyone else watching these videos and giving that response?
Or is that Is that a straight-up H-Roc callout? Uh, that's funny. You aren't signing yourself up for multi-generational debt.
>> switch overlay was very you. Wait, what was it?
No, that's not me. That could be anything.
And I already know what all of you live streamers are saying to your chat right this very second. Almost nobody taking out a 50-year mortgage is going to have this level of financial discipline. The reason I even bothered with the devil's advocate stick at all is because if these financial products do come to market, this is exactly how they are going to be sold to people. You aren't signing yourself up for multi-generational debt. You are arbitraging the time value of money.
Optimistically, people are just going to take the money that would have gone to repayments and use it to cover other areas of their household budget. Now, this is optimistic because that The real thing that's scary after this is you can do like the end of the line of this, you know, if you're really trying to just make sure housing prices stay up is you offer essentially like infinite year interest-only loans. Like 99-year, 100-year, 200-year interest-only loans where you're only paying the interest.
You don't pay any of the principal. You never own any more of the You're basically renting.
>> [laughter] >> Yeah, you're just renting it forever, but it's technically yours, and as long as the housing price keeps going up, you can refinance. You could like you could sell the house, cover the full loan, make the profit, right? So, it's um That That is like the end game of if you needed to prop housing prices up.
Because then people get the absolute lowest monthly payment possible and buy the maximum amount of house price they could afford.
And they would just never truly own it.
And all of that would keep going until housing prices finally started to go down under that system and then we would be truly, colossally, generationally salted earth.
>> [laughter] >> Once you get to that stage and then housing prices still go down, you are truly beyond hope. You are truly there is the financial contagion has breached into every facet of the life.
At least a bit of extra spending might contribute to economic activity.
Realistically, all the >> By the way, Canada is not far OFF FROM THIS.
>> [laughter] >> TO BE CLEAR, if we're talking end games, like this is sort of close to where like Canada, maybe even Australia is at. Like they their fine their real estate is a disgusting portion of their economy. It's a disgusting part of everything.
going to do is increase house prices by stimulating demand just like it has every single other time we have tried this. In just last week's video, we saw how longer and looser auto financing has made cars more expensive. The only reason why college kids with no income can pay for tuition that is outpacing inflation by 400% is because it's become so easy to take out student debt. Yeah.
Recently, everyday items have been allowed to inflate further than they might have otherwise been able to with a little help from all kinds of weird and wonderful credit. And yeah, even 50-year mortgages were introduced in Japan in the 1980s to assist with housing affordability. All it did was make real estate even more expensive >> great. contributing to their record housing bubble. But that's fine because it all ended super well for [laughter] them and their economy has been thriving ever since. So yeah, we may not like to Yeah, no long-term effects. Well said.
Well said.
Yeah, Japanese real estate bubble. It's just funny cuz we're I feel like we're You know, I I think I've said this a thousand times. So, I'm sorry to say it again. But Japan really is the canary in the coal mine for like what we seem to be blindly stumbling towards. Like they have they have made all these mistakes first and shown us the problem and then we don't listen.
>> [laughter] >> DON'T LISTEN. WE don't we don't It's like And and and by the way, Japan is a country that has like a uniquely high level of social stability and they've invested a good amount in like public goods like trains. And even they are receiving all these negative effects. So, we are going to have the negative effects, but with none of even the we don't HAVE ANY WE HAVE the opposite. We have social instability and no public goods. So, it's like what what do we get? It's like it's such a It's a tinderbox, you know?
They're like throwing lit matches on a tiny tiny tiny little pile of kindling, but we have a open drum of gasoline and we're flamethrowering it.
Um Super well for them, and their economy has been thriving ever since.
So, yeah. We may not like to admit it, but we have probably dug ourselves into the same kind of hole. For now, if we actually genuinely just wanted to make homes more affordable for first-time home buyers, 15-year mortgages would probably do more good than 50-year mortgages in the long term. But more on that later. As for the benefits to first-time home buyers, this is also ignoring the other costs that come with owning a home like property taxes, maintenance, and insurance, which means the total month-to-month savings will be even more marginal than even the optimistic estimates would suggest. It's also conveniently ignoring the the that longer loans will probably attract higher interest rates from lenders, effectively eliminating the month-to-month savings for most people.
>> Yeah, it's dumb.
>> numbers alone, this looks like a bad idea on top of a bad idea on top of a bad idea. And to be fair, most policy makers have acknowledged this and tried to distance themselves from this plan.
But, there are still two big reasons why we might end up seeing these loans anyway. They are going to make a lot of money for the right people, and we may be out of other options. So, it's time to learn How Money Works to find out how you are going to be left holding the bag on these mortgages, even if you never use them. I spend a lot of time researching, organizing, and planning our videos for each month. So, anything that helps us move faster from idea to finished video makes a real difference, which is why I partnered with Comet by Perplexity. Check out Comet by Perplexity.
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All right. So, behind most bad ideas is either a profit motive or some level of desperation. Yeah. And you don't need to tighten the tinfoil hats too tightly to see both of those elements here.
The current proposal to introduce 50-year mortgages came from a meeting between the president and the Federal Housing Finance Agency Director, Bill Pulte.
>> The FHFA was established in 2008 after the global financial crisis to keep a tighter leash on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the semi-government enterprises tasked with buying up mortgages off regular banks, provided they meet strict criteria regarding length. By the way, maybe he's going to talk about this.
But, it's just so Because if the government buys mortgages based on certain criteria, then over time, these institutions become very good at gaming the criteria.
They They study for the test. That's a great way to put it. They figure out exactly what criteria gets the mortgage bought. And then they put in shittier and shittier mortgages that they've sold. It's just crazy because why even have these middle men at all if you're going to do this?
Why even have them at all? Either have them take on their own risk or have the government give you money for a mortgage. But having this is a recipe for disaster. lending standards.
Theoretically, you could walk into your local Wells Fargo today and ask for a 50-year mortgage. And as a private business, there is nothing specifically stopping them legally. However, at the moment, these loans are extremely rare for two reasons. The first is that 50-year mortgages do not currently fit within the underwriting criteria of Fannie or Freddie Mac. So, if the bank gives that loan, they can't sell it off to these organizations. And instead, they have to keep it on their books for the next 50 years. Compared to a regular 30-year mortgage, which they can make a quick, easy profit on overnight, this kind of deal just doesn't make business sense. Except for maybe rare instances of extremely large loans to private banking clients. However, if the Federal Housing Finance Agency instructed Fannie and Freddie to start accepting 50-year loans as well, then that would be the first barrier removed. The second reason why private banks >> Uh these two things are what um Melody Wright was talking about in our interview.
Where she mentioned uh you know, Fannie and Freddie are owning like such a massive chunk of American mortgages. Like they've all been bought, built up to sell to them.
don't do this for now is because 50-year terms are outside the bounds of what the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau considers a qualified mortgage.
Qualified mortgages just means that banks meet some basic requirements to satisfy the bureau that their lending is not predatory. If they do meet these criteria, they are offered legal safe harbor, which makes the banks harder to >> Well, like Melody Wright was talking about in our interview. For now, loan terms beyond 30 years do not meet these criteria, which means if you get given a 50-year mortgage and end up in financial hardship, you could theoretically take your bank to court for predatory lending and they would have far fewer legal protections.
>> Yeah. Now, they would still have an army of lawyers. So, please don't try it just because someone on the internet said it was theoretically possible.
>> are always right. Anyway, this might not matter soon because the government is currently pushing to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau anyway by cutting off its funding. Great idea.
>> This would remove the last barrier to 50-year loan terms and if banks are allowed to write these loans, there is a big incentive to do so. Longer loan terms are more valuable when they're issued into mortgage securities because they pay interest for an additional 20 years. Longer loan terms will most likely also enable slightly larger loans maximizing bank revenue. Now, remember, the Federal Housing Finance Agency back up here was specifically created after I assume he's going to mention this, but I don't care. I'll be watching it anyway.
The The biggest reason of all though is that if you can take out slightly larger loans and that makes the housing prices go slightly up, then we save the retirement of all these boomers who have put all their money into their houses.
Like that That is the It's It's for boomers at the end of the day. Like yes, banks will win with a larger loan term, but they're winning either way.
The real reason politically why they'd have to do this is that boomers are cooked if the housing market crashes because that is where they put their wealth.
And so politically, you have to do whatever it takes to prop up not only the housing market, but also the stock market now. We've entered into a dual prop system where the government is like backed against the wall to never let 401ks drop for too long and never let housing drop for too long or the boomers will collectively open their mouths and unleash bills above from hell.
>> [laughter] >> And we're just dealing with it until they die.
Uh Yeah, yeah, I I am I'm so anti-boomer lately. In general, but lately. I have I have And not that there's you know, it's on an individual level, I'm sure.
I know that many of them are great people. They're just doing normal things on incentives. And a lot of it's incentives. But there really is like just a frustration at their stranglehold over everything. Over over finances, politics, media, everything. It's a it's complete stranglehold well past their expiration date.
Um It's uh it's frustrating. And obviously it's like the wealthier part of boomers, not like a poor boomer trying to figure it out, but um it's frustrating.
Now, remember, the Federal Housing Finance Agency back up here was specifically created after the subprime mortgage crisis to try and stop the whole system from getting too crazy again. So then, why would they be pushing for riskier loans that are going to make the >> going to say it right now.
Well, we may never know. But, on a completely unrelated note, the current director of the FHFA, Bill Pulte, is one of the heirs to the Pulte Group, the third largest real estate development company in America. Oh, this is about >> also the founder of Pulte Capital Partners, >> Pulte's own corruption.
>> equity firm he started in 2011, which according to the website makes focus investments into construction-focused businesses like roofers, HVAC installers, and drywallers. That means both the family business and the private equity firm are relying on people buying and selling homes to generate returns.
And that's a problem because home sales have cratered since interest rates have risen. New It's so That's such a The list of corruption is so long it doesn't even register, but it's crazy to hire someone to run a group when he has not one, but two family businesses that are direct conflict of interest with what you need to do in this role. That is crazy. His his entire life is built up in businesses that need housing prices to go up and housing sales to continue and he's in charge of the Federal Housing Authority?
Buyers can't afford to break into the market and existing homeowners don't want to sell their homes after they locked in low interest rates. Now, if 50-year mortgages become commonplace, they would only make her current predicament significantly worse for future generations down the road. If people can lock in >> about them? That can cause problems, but eventually they build up equity and for the final 15 years of their loan, their nominal interest rate is not as big of a deal.
However, if people lock in a 50-year mortgage at a good interest rate, they will build up equity in their home far more slowly, which means that the current rigidity of the market could be extended for the length of an entire generation. However, that will be a problem for a generation that isn't even born yet. And obviously, it should go without saying, screw those guys. Yeah. Hey, yeah. We have problems to fix right now. He's making these fitting. Even those households that were lucky enough to lock in low interest rates on normal terms are starting to struggle.
>> look, Gen Z's in my chat and they already [ __ ] hate Gen Alpha. They're going to hate Gen Beta even more. Let's just let's pass it on to them.
Let's Wait a minute. I see what the boomers are talking about now.
>> [laughter] >> I see what the boomers are talking about. Wait, you can just pass the buck onto another generation to try to make things better now?
We'll call it kicking the [laughter] can.
Wait a minute. THIS IS WAIT A MINUTE.
OH, now I'm seeing the Oh, they should have just said that they were doing what they were doing. goal.
The true extent of financial hardship in the housing market has become incredibly hard to track because of a trend that is being dubbed extend and pretend.
Basically, lenders have allowed borrowers to defer or renegotiate their payment schedules quietly behind the scenes without officially noting them down as they >> what Melody was saying.
>> They extend their loan terms and pretend everything is okay. Now, for the lenders, it could be argued that some repayments are better than no repayments. But, for the financial system as a whole, we truly don't have reliable data on how dire our situation is. For home builders and financiers, this is a real problem. But, one way to get things moving again would be to make financing terms even more flexible. A 50-year loan is effectively just officially sanctioned market-wide extend and pretend. This could be sold as helping out new buyers break into the market, but the people who it will help the most are existing investors. One of the biggest problems with real estate around the world is that modern homes have become assets first with a side hustle in accommodating humans as a distant second priority.
>> Yeah. This is because they are one of, if not, the single most effective vessels for finance and tax incentives.
You can't borrow money on a government-backed 30-year fixed interest term to buy stocks. Nor can you claim any of the dozens of deferments, incentives, or credits that come with real estate.
>> Yep. When it comes to reigning in house prices to address affordability concerns, most people can only spend as much as they can borrow. So, by restricting how much they can borrow, policymakers can easily influence home prices while also making the financial system more robust. A study on Swedish home prices Just all all all demand subsidies come down to it, even the ones that sound good.
Just every demand sub- Even if it's like, "Hey, listen, more people need to go to college. College is really important. We need to make college more uh available to everybody. So, we're going to offer subsidized government student loans."
What Whatever it all The reason can always sound good. But, when you're doing a demand subsidy, you always get unintentional consequences down the line. We're going to have special tax brackets to let's you write off your mortgage insurance. What Whatever it is.
Whatever the [ __ ] it is. You will always get um unintended consequences down the line.
So, you have to be ready to bear those.
And we They never They never are. They never do. just found that property's become markedly more affordable after the regulators cut back on interest-only loans and introduce strict amortization schedules. A global study by the Bank of International Settlements found a similar trend across countries. If we really wanted to make homes more affordable, 15-year mortgages would do a lot more >> Australia subsidizing university is good?
It's Listen, in theory, the idea is good and there's good outcomes for people. But like Australia, for example, because the government will pay the full cost of the university relatively easy. There's a lot of fraud in that. A lot of universities are set up in Australia that offer [ __ ] degrees and they try to get as I mean get as many people into them as possible so they can milk the government for money. Like that is a thing that's happening in Australia. That is the unintended consequence of this program.
All these programs have unintended consequences because human beings follow incentives. They always have and they always will in every society, no matter what system you have. They will always follow the incentives, especially over time.
So, you you have to prepare and plan for that. You have to think about it in a smarter way.
If you try to do it just by throwing money at it, you will get consequences you didn't expect.
Um and that's why the best methods are usually ones that drastically stimulate supply, which drives down cost. I mean, that's just the best just the better way to do it.
Um even if there's unintended consequences there, too, but that those seem to do better.
Um or than 50-year mortgages. But that's kind of the point because real estate has become such an institutionalized investment vehicle, one man's affordable home is another man's crippling market crash. On one hand, 50-year mortgages are only going to make things worse by making homes even more attractive as an investment vehicle. But on the opposite side of that same coin, 50-year mortgages could help to keep a fundamentally broken market from collapsing on itself, even if only for a few extra months. Over the last 5 years, institutional investors have drawn a lot of scrutiny for quietly buying up hundreds of billions of dollars in residential real estate across the country, particularly in areas like the Sun Belt. Today, they are quietly trying to back out of those same investments because the markets they went all in on did not continue to attract the same volume of new interest as >> the third thing from the Melly Wright interview.
Did you watch? How many WORKS DID YOU WATCH? There's like There's like There's like three back-to-back things that Melly Wright talked about, bro.
>> [laughter] >> That's That's three.
All right, that's three, bro.
Uh they were projecting. As I was putting this video together, Atrioc [laughter] did a fantastic interview >> [laughter] >> Oh, [screaming] [ __ ] WAIT A MINUTE. I GOT PLAYED. [screaming] WAIT, I GOT PLAYED.
OH, this is bad.
>> [laughter] >> Wait a minute, you son of a I got to get back at this guy somehow.
I got to get back at this guy somehow.
We're ouroboros-ing.
Wait, this is a human centipede, bro.
This is a human centipede.
with Melly Wright, one of the top housing market experts in America, who has effectively been saying the same thing.
>> Thank you for the shout-out, though.
>> will leave a link to that full interview because it's worth a watch.
>> Wait, I should have commented on this.
I need to the and say glizzy glizzy or something.
>> [laughter] >> But to summarize, the housing market is shaking, so institutional investors with thousands of properties want to dump their holdings onto Airbnb bros with dozens of properties. But the only way they are going to be able to do that is if it becomes easier to qualify for big loans, and the only way to get those is if big loans are sold as a way to help regular people who just want to buy a single home to live in. Unfortunately, this market has become so large that they are effectively too big to fail.
Actually, Okay, why don't we, How Money Works, why don't we start some sort of YouTuber collateralized revenue obligation, okay?
Where whatever stories we cover, >> [laughter] >> we can package up and sell to investors somehow, okay?
And then we can use this, you know, to guarantee views, we can recommend each other back and forth.
Okay? And then anytime we need our stock value to go up, I'll just announce that How Money Works is mentioning me, and then whenever you need yours to go up, I can say A-Trak, Big A is mentioning you, and we could get a sort of um infinite view glitch, and then sell our future revenues against that, and then make infinite money with no downsides. This is actually, it's a diversified >> [laughter] >> finance tuber portfolio, okay?
Wait a minute, this sounds really good.
Actually, letting homes become affordable too quickly would present a systemic risk to the entire financial system. Unfortunately, one group has to feel the pain, and it's just much easier when that group is the people who aren't yet balancing huge piles of debt and overinflated assets. Now, go and watch this video next to find out if the everything bubble can keep itself going forever. Uh, great video. Um Um >> [music]
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