Rangers face 'ENORMOUS' issues off the pitch after title collapse - Ex-PL adviser

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]In terms of Newcastle, Bayern Munich have reportedly agreed broad terms with Anthony Gordon over a summer move to Germany. I mean, does that maybe weaken Newcastle's negotiating position if that's kind of going on behind the scenes with him? I think they're in a weak position on the deal anyway because it looks it's looked like he's going to Bayern come what may for a while now and uh and so Newcastle will be boxed in by his agent and uh and by Bayern Munich and they'll ultimately accept whatever is reasonable. uh but that's not quite as much as they want. So, you know, it'll be 60 to 65 plus an earn, you know, plus um an add-on.

[00:00:40]You know, we know the direction of travel. We know how these deals work. Um but, you know, I think from Newcastle's perspective, it's going to be disappointing because they won't be able to have a bidding war with anybody else that might want him. Um I suspect the deal is sewn up and it's just a matter of time.

[00:00:59]And then in in terms of Newcastle's um uh UEFA fine that they're probably expecting with the settlement agreement, it's been reported that it'll be around half of what Aston Villa received at about 9.5 million pound. That that's what Aston Villa got. I mean, does that seem right those kind of figures it will it will be much lower than Villas?

[00:01:18]Um I don't know because we don't have the numbers to be able to assess exactly where it you know how far they breached.

[00:01:26]Um certainly on football earnings they were miles miles away. Um so you know remember this is football earnings was all um was all before you you do the add-on for um the sale of the assets that will be you know that were allowed by the Premier League allowed them to get through but cancelled by um by UEFA and also we know from the Newcastle accounts that certain of the swap transactions were adjusted by UEFA because they tell us that last year. So, they'll have missed football earnings by quite a bit.

[00:02:11]Um, remember the the UEFA situation, the settlement agreement relates to football earnings, not to STRC, when you breach it, there's a there's a tariff that allows you to calculate exactly what the breach is and therefore what the penalty is. So, there's two elements to the fine. One is for the football earnings, you go into the settlement agreement and one is for the SCR which is calculated by the matrix.

[00:02:44]And um so look, if somebody's reported it's about half the Newcastle, half the villa fine, then you know, I have no reason to believe that it's not. We'll find out in due course. The question will be more about what the settlement agreement looks like and and how they deal with that.

[00:03:03]um you know they're not in probably not in Europe next season probably. I mean it's not impossible you know that they can win the last two games and still scrape into something depending on various bits and pieces. um but it's not likely. If they're not in Europe, then obviously that first year of the settlement agreement is of less focus, but is also harder to hit because they're going to lose those the earnings that are coming in at the top in terms of revenue.

[00:03:36]Uh but their cost base will be lower because they won't have Champions League wages. So, I would think that there's a 20% probably wage reduction on quite a few of those players contracts. And of course, you don't have to travel around Europe, which is an expensive exercise.

[00:03:51]Um, but you've got less games. So, you know, swings and roundabouts, it it will impact them. It will be harder for them to comply. But on the flip side, they have the massive profit from the ESAC sale. And they will also, of course, have quite a big chunky profit coming from the sale of Anthony Gordon because his book value now is probably down to, I don't know what it is, 20 million quid, maybe, maybe a bit less. And so there's a big chunk of profit coming in from that even if they sold nobody else.

[00:04:18]So top and bottom of it is um they'll be in a settlement agreement. The fine will be whatever the fine is. They'll probably be okay in terms of meeting the settlement agreement certainly for the first two years. Uh they won't be in Europe anyway. uh you know with all of these situations there's I mean it probably won't apply to Newcastle in the first year but if you end up qualifying for the conference actually is it better off dur to to take a take a season out just just relinquish the conference um place in the way that you've enter Milan relinquished places historically that will be a that will be an option for all of these teams that end up in settlement um agreements um and there I think there'll be other settlement agreements think non in forest will be in one as well um for breaching football earnings um we know Chelsea are we know Villa are so there'll be a whole whole collection of them um but not all of those teams will actually be in Europe but in terms of Aston Villa settlement agreement what will that mean for their transfer plans this summer I mean looks like they're going to be in the Champions League >> yeah so look they they're going to know that they've you know, very chunky amount of money coming through the door next season, offset slightly by the closure of one one stand. So, that's going to cost them probably 10 million quid minimum uh to offset it. They're also going to have increased wages, but but um you would think that the model that they agreed with UEFA did not have as an assumption. Champions League, probably had Europa as being the base assumption within that settlement agreement. So, they're probably going to outperform financially versus what they expected to for next season and therefore they should be fine. you would think um whether they've got to sell a player as well. That's a different question. Uh it's hard it's it's hard to know. Uh there is the issue of whether the uh warehouse sale and the women's team are both fully incorporated um within at the values that they put them through at. So, as we understand it, as at the time of the accounts being published for last year, which got them through PSR for last season, um we don't know whether those deals were approved for fair value. Now, if they end up being adjusted, let's say the warehouses, let's say they say actually it's not 55 million, it's 25.

[00:06:55][snorts] Does that give them a problem on PSR? We don't know. Um, but if it did give them a problem on PSL last season, it obviously would give them a problem on PSR this season as well. Particularly because this season they will get the Europa League revenue, but they may well have to pay some quite chunky bonuses out to the squad because uh it looks like they're going to have a situation where they qualify for the Champions League two ways. So, looks like the bonus situation might be quite sizable for the squad, winning Europa and also finishing in the Europa in the Champions League places. Um, so you look, we don't know, but you know, these are the sorts of things that go into the model that make compliance tricky. Um and and the sort of headaches that the finance director has because the the finance team are trying to manage multiple different regulatory systems and comply whilst they're being pushed to spend money over here on new players. That's their challenge, of course. Then we've seen with uh Harvey Elliot, there's been a bit of blame pointed from all sides at each other this week. I mean, he's set to return to Liverpool for preseason after this failed loan spell at Aston Villa. I mean, could his value maybe have taken a quite a significant hit after he's he's barely played this season at Aston Villa?

[00:08:20]>> Yeah, I think around the edges. I mean, you know, um I think, you know, with so many of these players now, it becomes a lot about age. I mean, I'm just checking how old he is. Um I think he's still of a decent age, so he should be okay. But, you know, if you tip into Yeah, he's only 23. So, I I I doubt it'll have that much of an impact. You know, 25 million quid still feels achievable. What was he go? I think he was only going for 30 anyway. So, I think somebody will take him for 25 million and and um you know, one of maybe a promoted team or you know, a lower half of the table team. 25 million feels feels like it's worth worth a go for him. Um but I mean it's been a mess really, you know.

[00:09:11]>> And then um Rangers that they're going to finish third in the uh Scottish Premiership after falling behind Hearts and Celtic over the past couple of weeks. How damaging is that going to be for them given what it means for European qualification for them and and where they're going to be next season?

[00:09:26]>> Yeah, it's bad. I mean, there's no there's no two ways about it. It's uh you know the difference is so enormous between potential Champions League and um you know and and everything else. So um it's a very difficult situation.

[00:09:47]uh they've got to find a way really of bringing player youth players through and making more money on player trading because there's now so little certainty around being able to get into the Champions League because of the change of the rules and the difficulties that Scottish teams have. They've got to have a different business plan and um you know we've been talking about it for probably a couple of years now how they've got to improve their bringing players through their development of players and their reselling of players.

[00:10:16]Um, to me that's got to become a central part of the business plan. Um, because the old the old relying upon really Champions League as being the way to develop the team compared to Celtic is is not it's just not a reliable not a reliable route anymore. And the gap between being in the Champions League and being not in the Champions League is is even bigger. So, um yeah, I mean it it is bad news and um I think the only way to fix it is to concentrate on player development and uh better trading. Um that then has the effect of bringing in more capital, bringing in better players, developing better players, getting Champions League and also trading players. the two things together then working to to generate uh you know proper proper profits. But look, it's not that is not a straightforward thing to do. Don't get me wrong, everybody wants to do it. So I'm not saying it as if it's you know just so obvious to to be able to to fix.

[00:11:28]But, you know, if you've got a situation where qualifying in the Champions League has just got a lot harder, you've got no option but to do that.