Daily Natural Gas Report - July Futures (NGN26 @ 3.164) | 05.28.2026

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:04]Good morning, natural gas. It's Thursday, May 28th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, president of L Trading Company.

[00:00:13]And today is storage day. Expectations around plus 92 BCF. This goes up against last year's plus 104 BCF and the five-year average of plus 97 BCF. So, bullish relative to last year, bullish relative to the five-year average if in fact we do come in around plus 92. So, for the new spot natural gas contract, July, we're currently trading at 315 and a half 1560, up 6.1 cents here, or a little bit just below 2%.

[00:00:50]As you can see, the RSI is open to the upside, but it is currently trading sideways. We are waiting the storage report. Currently, we are below the 48-period exponential moving average, which comes in at 316.80.

[00:01:04]Let's turn to the hourly chart. And as you can see, we're holding above the daily pivot. So, our bias is positive to the upside. The RSI is open to the upside, and we're currently below the first resistance level, 317.10. Above that, 324.60.

[00:01:23]So, let's take a look at the ERCOT system here. And ERCOT, we're going to have about 30 2,000 MW of renewables in the space today out of a peak today of 72,000 MW system-wide. What's going on? Wind is low, which means natural gas is picking up some of that market share. Currently, just over 45% of the fuel mix here, just under 24,000 MW. That's good news for natural gas. How about the LNG markets? Well, this is what's going on today. Iran is still fighting back against the United States. The Strait of Hormuz is in focus currently right now.

[00:02:04]We don't see any major traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing is loading up at Ras Laffan. So, what else is going on? Let's take a look at where our uh C Eagle is in the system. It is passing the uh Cape uh assuming South Africa right now.

[00:02:25]Excuse me, right there, and it is heading toward Asia. We don't know where because the Arb is open to Asia. And because of the news between the United States and Iran once again at arms, here we go. The TTF is up 4% today. This is in euro dollars per megawatt hours, not not MMBtu. So, just keep in mind, the RSI is pointing higher here again on the renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States.

[00:02:56]How about the January versus the October here in the US? This is the spread, and as you can see here, we're currently up just five ticks here to 122.90.

[00:03:07]The RSI is trying to bottom out. So, what does this mean? Well, Piper Sandler yesterday said the Strait of Hormuz could be closed for months, and oil would go to new highs. If this is in fact the case, then once again, even for the United States, the winter contracts would take a big here. What's going on?

[00:03:27]There's plenty of spring maintenance at LNG facilities. They're just starting to ramp up. We're currently about 18 BCF a day of feed gas going into this into the grid, and that means we're still about 2 BCF below our peak. What's going on?

[00:03:42]They're getting ready. They're getting ready for winter. Why?

[00:03:46]Because hostilities are not coming down, and Europe is still too far behind.

[00:03:52]Let's take a look at the LNG. This is Creole Trail. This feeds, of course, to me, it feeds Sabine Pass LNG. We're right now about 1.5 BCF out of 1.7.

[00:04:04]Let's take a look at Corpus Christi.

[00:04:06]Again, this is almost near full capacity here. We're running just over 2.65 out of 2.75.

[00:04:13]And let's move over to TransCameron Pipeline. This feeds Calcasieu Pass here and it is currently still open and has 400,000 of open capacity here running just at 1.69 out of 2.125.

[00:04:27]And this is Calcasieu Pass. Yesterday, we did see just one tanker here loading up at the dock. This morning, nothing yet at the dock. And as you can see, this is a recent photograph. As they push these tankers up onto the dock here for loading, you can see all that mud that was being kicked up underneath the boat. So, there is a dredger here last week and into this week. So, therefore, this continues to silt up here and must be actually dredged out periodically. So, that may be containing what's going on here at Calcasieu Pass.

[00:05:02]Let's take a look here at Gator Express.

[00:05:05]This feeds Plaquemines. This is on the Mississippi River. And as you can see right now, they are currently running at over four BCF They're actually just over four BCF out of 3.94 nameplate capacity. Yes, running over nameplate capacity. So, let's take a look at Cameron. Cameron LNG is running at 1.1 out of 1.56 BCF. So, still plenty of capacity here to ramp up as well.

[00:05:32]And Golden Pass actually is ramping up over 420,000 MMBtu's. Again, out of a total capacity for 800 to 850,000 MMBtu's for train one. So, it is finally catching a second wind.

[00:05:47]How about the United States? Well, the weather continues to be above normal to the northern tier, but cooler to the southern tier. And as you can see if it starts to run here, we can see that weather pattern holding through into June. And that's going to be helpful for just about nothing because we really need the weather for the south or the populated centers in the northeast. We do get some weather coming through here around June the 5th, but it's not that bad. Most of the above normal temperatures are well into the Pacific Northwest or upper Midwest where we've got very little population.

[00:06:26]And let's take a look here at the heat risk. This is the heat risk today. That is showing the upper Midwest with major heat risk here for the Montana and parts of the Dakotas. This pushes into parts of the south here into Florida. As you can see, also getting into Texas and all the way back up into Kansas by Sunday, but that starts to moderate and then starts to focus in on the desert southwest and parts of the interior California and Florida, but it's not much for this time of year.

[00:06:58]And let's take a look at Europe, which is starting out warm here in this forecast period for the next few days and then it starts to moderate just a little bit. As you can see here, it moderates into the first week of June and then we start to see some warmer temperatures showing back up here again, June the 11th. And why is that important? Because storage injections are low. They're lower than the men here we've seen over the last few years, and that means that they are going to be sitting right down here somewhere between 2021 and 2025 as far as storage injections here, possibly trying to reach maybe 75 to 80% full.

[00:07:40]Again, this is lower than we'd like to see it, but this is slowly slowly injecting into storage space.

[00:07:49]How about Asia? Well, we're going to be warm. And it looks like you're going to see here, this is down here at Hong Kong here. This starts to get into the upper 80s into 90s here by the time we get into June the 3rd. This is 90° temperature here in Hong Kong. And this is about the equivalent here latitude-wise of Mexico City. Shanghai up here is the same latitude basically of Houston. So, we start to see warmer temperatures start to push into the eastern provinces of China.

[00:08:22]And here's the US Gulf. And as you can see here right now, we've got storm systems forming off of Louisiana, off of Cozumel, and of course right down here in the Bay of Campeche. So, this is the time of year when we start to see some storms develop and possibly push north toward Texas and Louisiana. What about the Mid-Atlantic? No way. We've got a blocker here, linebacker called a Saharan air layer or dust, and it extends all the way from Africa back into Cuba at this stage, and it is going to be pushing up into the Gulf of America Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some good sunsets, but if you've got allergies, it's going to make you miserable.

[00:09:04]How about Japan? Well, we continue to see some earthquake activity across the last few days here, really starting to pick up here in the 4.2 to 4.6 4.8 magnitude. So, we've got to keep a careful eye on this because this also indicates that this Ring of Fire is starting to fire up here. We've got to be careful because Japan has a lot of nuclear power. If it starts to be affected, that means they need even more LNG.

[00:09:34]Here's oil and gas sector here between 2 and 10 billion dollars have a high short float over 10% and we got a sea of green. Finally, some people are picking up some stocks here. A little bit of bargain hunting here because crude and natural gas are higher and as you can see even behind me, CNX 0.56% higher on the day. So again, recapping here for the new to lie contract here at spot contract is currently trading at 3 1640 up 6.9 cents here, a little bit over 2.25%.

[00:10:06]Today is storage day. Expectations plus 92 BCF, which would be bullish versus last year and versus the five-year average. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.