Canada Powers New York and Boston and Trump Just Realized He Cannot Turn the Lights Back On

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]This month, a $6 billion power line began delivering Canadian hydroelectricity directly into New York City, enough clean power for 1 million homes. And earlier this year, when Hydro-Québec quietly stopped exporting electricity to New England during the trade war, the region had to fire up expensive gas and oil plants to replace it. The lights stayed on, but the bill went up. And every American grid operator in the Northeast now understands something Trump's trade team apparently did not. Canada controls a significant share of the power switch for the American Northeast. This is part three of Canada's forgotten cards, and it is the one that is most immediately visible because the wire is already in the ground. Let's start with what just happened this month because the timing could not be more relevant. The Champlain Hudson Power Express, a $6 billion high-voltage direct current transmission cable, began delivering power from Hydro-Québec's hydroelectric system directly into New York City in May 2026.

[00:00:58]The cable runs underwater along the bottom of Lake Champlain and the Hudson River, terminating at a converter station in Astoria, Queens. At 1,250 MW of capacity, it delivers enough electricity to power 1 million New York City homes. This is not a future project. It is operating right now.

[00:01:16]Canadian hydropower is flowing through a wire under the Hudson River into the largest city in North America as you watch this video, and it is not alone.

[00:01:25]In January 2026, the New England Clean Energy Connect, another 1,200 MW transmission line from Hydro-Québec into Massachusetts, began commercial operations. Together, these two lines have increased the physical connection between Quebec's hydroelectric system and the American Northeast by more than 36% compared to existing capacity.

[00:01:47]Hydro-Québec has a 25-year contract with New York State, its largest export contract ever, to supply nearly 1,250 MW of electricity starting in 2025.

[00:02:00]New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed the deal as part of the state's commitment to reach 70% renewable electricity by 2030.

[00:02:08]Canadian Hydro is the backbone of that plan.

[00:02:11]Now, let's talk about what happened earlier this year when Hydro-Québec made a quiet decision that sent shockwaves through American grid operators. On March 6th, at the start of the trade war between Canada and the United States, Hydro-Québec stopped exporting electricity to New England. The company said the reason was economic. Low prices in the New England market made exports unprofitable. Hydro-Québec did not frame it as a political response to Trump's tariffs. They did not need to. The effect was immediate. For nearly a month, New England operated with virtually no cross-border flow of Canadian electricity at a time of year when Canadian Hydro normally supplies up to 10% of the region's power. To replace it, grid operators called on natural gas and oil-fired power plants. Electricity generation from petroleum in New England surged. Prices rose. Emissions went up.

[00:03:02]The region managed, but it was more expensive and more carbon-intensive than it needed to be. American grid analysts called it a wake-up call. The New England grid operator ISO-NE had been planning around the assumption that Canada would always supply up to 2,000 megawatts at moments of peak demand.

[00:03:20]That assumption, one analyst said publicly, "does not strike me as responsible or appropriate reliability planning given what just happened." Here is what this means for the 35 days remaining until the CUSMA deadline and why it is different from oil, uranium, and potash. Subscribe to Canada Tomorrow and hit the bell. This is the final part of our three-part Forgotten Cards series. After this, we bring all three cards together and explain exactly how Carney plans to use them.

[00:03:49]Now, let's continue. Now, let's put the full scale of Canadian electricity exports to the United States in context because most people dramatically underestimate it. Canada exported 2.6 billion dollars worth of electricity to the United States in 2024.

[00:04:05]In 2022 when energy prices spiked due to the Russia-Ukraine war, that figure reached 5.8 billion dollars. The regions most dependent on Canadian electricity are New England, New York, Minnesota, the Pacific Northwest, and California.

[00:04:21]New York imported 7.7 terawatt hours of Canadian electricity in 2024, more than any other American state. That electricity was valued at hundreds of millions of dollars and came primarily from Ontario's grid and Hydro-Québec.

[00:04:36]The physical infrastructure connecting the two countries is extraordinary. The Moses-Saunders Dam on the Saint Lawrence River straddles the border between Ontario and New York. It is jointly owned and operated by both countries under a treaty dating back to 1950. The Niagara generating stations on both sides of the border operate under a 1950 agreement that jointly manages water flow between Canada and the United States. Canadian and American grids are not just connected. In some places, they are literally the same infrastructure.

[00:05:07]Now let's talk about Hydro-Québec specifically because it is one of the most extraordinary energy assets in the world. And it is a Canadian Crown Corporation.

[00:05:17]Hydro-Québec operates 62 hydroelectric generating stations in Quebec with over 37 gigawatts of installed capacity. Its reservoirs can store enormous quantities of water, effectively acting as giant batteries that can dispatch power on demand regardless of weather conditions.

[00:05:34]Unlike wind and solar which produce power only when the wind blows or the sun shines, Hydro-Québec can release stored water and generate electricity within hours of a request. That dispatchability, the ability to turn power on and off on demand, is exactly what American grid operators need as they add more intermittent renewable energy. Hydro-Quebec's CEO described it perfectly. You can see a future where Quebec's hydro reservoirs become a form of battery that provides support when there is not enough wind or when there is too much wind. That is not a future scenario. That is the arrangement New York and Massachusetts are already paying for. The Champlain Hudson Power Express and the New England Hudson Connect together represent over $12 billion in transmission infrastructure investment. Most of it American capital built to access Canadian hydro.

[00:06:26]American utilities, American investors, and American states have spent over a decade and billions of dollars building the physical connections to Canadian electricity. That investment creates a dependency that did not exist 10 years ago and cannot be quickly reversed. Here is the number that defines Canada's hydro position in the American Northeast. When New England demand peaks in January, the coldest month, the highest heating demand, Canada provides an average of 14% of the region's electricity. Not 5%, not 2%, 14%. Remove that 14% during a polar vortex and American grid operators face a crisis that no amount of domestic gas generation can fully replace in real time. That is not theoretical. That is what nearly happened in January 2026 when Quebec limited exports during winter storm Fern. Now, let's talk about Ontario because Quebec is not the only Canadian province with electricity leverage. Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator is interconnected with New York's grid and can supply up to 4,600 MW of capacity to the American Northeast. Ontario made up the bulk of the 7.7 terawatt hours of power New York imported from Canada in 2024. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, one of Carney's most consistent allies in the trade war, has been explicit about electricity as a lever.

[00:07:52]In February 2025, Ford announced that Ontario would impose a surcharge on electricity exports to the United States in response to Trump's tariffs. He specifically said he could cut power to 1.5 million American homes if Trump continued escalating. The surcharge was later suspended as negotiations progressed, but the message landed clearly in Washington. Canadian electricity is not a guaranteed commodity. It is a product that Canadian governments control. Ford's threat was not idle. Ontario exports electricity to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York.

[00:08:26]Midwest manufacturing already stressed by tariff uncertainty depends on reliable, affordable electricity. The moment Ford imposed even a modest surcharge, American utility executives started calling their congresspeople.

[00:08:40]Here is what makes Hydro the most immediate of the three forgotten cards.

[00:08:44]Oil and uranium flow under long-term contracts that take months or years to modify. Potash shipments can be redirected, but involve significant logistics. Electricity is different. It flows in real time through a wire. The decision to export or not export can be made in hours. Hydro-Québec demonstrated this in March. It simply stopped sending power across the border. No contract needed to be broken, no logistics needed to be redirected. The electrons just stopped flowing. That is leverage that can be deployed faster than any other card Canada holds. Now, let's connect Hydro directly to the CUSMA table.

[00:09:18]Canada's electricity exports to the United States are not currently covered by tariffs under CUSMA. They flow under separate bilateral arrangements and provincial contracts. But, the trade war has raised the question of whether Trump could impose tariffs on Canadian electricity the same way he imposed them on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.

[00:09:37]American grid operators immediately told Washington the answer, "Do not try it."

[00:09:42]The New York and New England grid operators filed submissions with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission warning that tariffs on Canadian electricity would raise costs for consumers, increase emissions as gas plants replace hydro, and potentially threaten grid reliability in extreme weather events. Those submissions came from American institutions making the argument that Canadian electricity must be protected, not from Ottawa. That is the pattern that runs through all three forgotten cards. Uranium, American nuclear utilities lobbying to protect Canadian supply. Potash, American farm associations demanding customer renewal to protect fertilizer access. Hydro, American grid operators filing regulatory submissions against tariffs on Canadian power. Canada does not need to threaten to use these cards. American constituencies are defending them on Canada's behalf. Now, the honest limits begin because they always matter.

[00:10:36]Canadian electricity exports to the United States have actually been declining in recent years as American renewable energy capacity grows.

[00:10:44]From 2016 to 2022, Canada provided an average of 14% of New England's electricity. By 2024, that average had fallen to 5% as New England added its own solar and wind capacity. The new transmission lines are designed to reverse that trend, but American energy independence from Canadian electricity is growing, not shrinking in the long run. Long-term contracts constrain Canada's ability to withhold electricity unilaterally. Hydro-Quebec's 25-year contract with New York State carries significant penalties for non-delivery.

[00:11:18]Ford's Ontario surcharge was suspended precisely because the legal and diplomatic consequences of sustained retaliation were significant, and the electricity card is inherently two-directional. At moments of low Canadian demand and high American supply as happened in 2023 and parts of 2024, power actually flows south to north.

[00:11:39]Canada imports American electricity when it is cheap and exports when it is expensive. The dependency runs both ways though more heavily from north to south in peak demand periods. Here is the bottom line and the conclusion of our three-part forgotten cards series. This month Canadian hydropower began flowing through a $6 billion cable under the Hudson River into 1 million New York City homes.

[00:12:02]Earlier this year when Hydro-Quebec stopped exporting to New England, the region fired up gas and oil plants to replace it. Ontario's premier has already demonstrated he can impose electricity surcharges that reach 1.5 million American homes in hours. Uranium keeps American nuclear plants running.

[00:12:19]Potash grows American food. Hydropower is American cities. Three cards, three existential dependencies, three sectors where American institutions, nuclear utilities, farm associations, grid operators, are already making Canada's argument in Washington. Carney did not create these dependencies. Canada built its uranium mines, its potash operations, and its hydro system over decades of investment. But with 35 days until the CUSMA deadline, those investments have become the most powerful negotiating position Canada has ever held. Trump wanted Canada dependent. Canada built infrastructure.

[00:12:57]And now the dependency runs in both directions. Subscribe to Canada Tomorrow. Hit the bell. Tell us in the comments, which of the three forgotten cards do you think is Canada's strongest? The debate starts now. Thank you for watching. Stay informed. Stay Canadian.