Strike incoming? Salary Cap on Table? MLB CBA negotiations for dummies.

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]I think it's worth talking about the collective bargaining agreement.

[00:00:03]Negotiations sort of are underway. Uh the current CBA deal expires on December 1st. And I'll just say this, what Kevin and I are going to attempt to do in the next 10ish minutes, maybe less, five minutes, is give like a CBA negotiations for dummies. We're not going to get into the nitty-gritty here on every clause, but we want to give people just an update. If you're a baseball fan, you should know where things stand on labor negotiations because this current agreement expires on December 1st. And right now, it doesn't look awesome if you're hoping to see baseball in 2027.

[00:00:37]So, the MLBPA yesterday, I believe, started things off by releasing their first proposal to the owners. And I'll give you the highlights. No salary cap first and foremost. Uh they want to double the minimum salary. They want to raise luxury tax thresholds, so you wouldn't even get taxed until 300 million. Currently, it's at like 250.

[00:00:58]And they also want to penalize teams who don't spend enough. The floor would be $150 million that teams have to spend.

[00:01:04]11 teams currently are under that number. They also proposed earlier free agency for older players. So, I believe it's if you're over the age of 30, you would hit free agency in five years. Um, as quickly as 5 years, they would eliminate the qualifying offer. And as a bone back to the owners, they would basically they would guarantee small market clubs a minimum of $240 million in revenue sharing every single year. So that was the players association proposal. Now if you know anything about negotiating, you know that the first proposal on both sides is the most extreme version and then you hope and you cross your fingers and you pray that both sides choose to work towards the middle. So then the owners today come out with their own proposal which just for fun by the way was proposal that would excuse me last seven years.

[00:01:50]Normally it's five. The owners are like we're going to actually create a proposal that goes seven. To be honest I'm cool with the longer deal. Let's just make it longer until there's potentially a strike. But they propose the headline here a salary cap for the first time in 30 years. 30 years is a long time ago which means you might not remember the last time they proposed a salary cap. We lost a season in Major League Baseball. The World Series was canceled. It did not happen.

[00:02:14]>> Years born 94.

[00:02:16]>> There you go.

[00:02:17]>> Uh the the the owners proposing that the salary cap would be where the luxury tax currently is. So the luxury tax is at 250 million. That's where they want the cap to be. To clarify, the players want the tax to go up 50 million. The owners want to make a tax a cap. They also want to put a floor at $170, $1.2 million.

[00:02:37]that is there are 12 teams currently below it. So a ceiling and a floor situation. They also want to do 5050 revenue sharing. An interesting note on this as I believe it was Evan Dritch at the Athletic pointed out that if the revenue owed to the players was less than the total salaries that are being paid out to players. Players contracts would essentially no longer be guaranteed. They would have to give some of their money back if the 50% revenue share doesn't cover everyone's salary.

[00:03:03]So, this sort of agreement actually makes contracts no longer technically guaranteed. Fun fact, um, uh, all local television revenue would be pulled, according to the owners. And here's kind of the headline statement from Glenn Kaplan, league spokesperson.

[00:03:19]Quote, "Ultimately, the game is about hope and competition, and too many fans in too many markets have too little hope that their team has a fair chance to win. fans overwhelmingly support a salary cap and floor like in the other leagues. Uh, >> we do. I don't know what fans they're talking about.

[00:03:36]>> Kevin Kevin texted the group saying we should not text about the CBA because he might get too mad. And my response was, "Sounds like something we should definitely talk about." So, um, the owners want a salary cap. The players do not. Your thoughts, Kevin?

[00:03:51]>> Um, okay. To give context to my thoughts, I will never ever ever be on the side of the billionaire owners.

[00:03:59]That's just not you're not.

[00:04:00]>> It's a tough spot to be.

[00:04:03]>> Yeah. Oh, no. Poor them. Um, so they they're proposing a cap because it's for parody. And yet, if with their proposed cap, I believe of the six teams that would need to go under the cap, two of them currently aren't in playoff contention already. And of like the 11 teams that would need to go above their floor, which most of the teams need to like double their salary that are below it. So like they need to go from spending 80 million to 175 million, which okay, I didn't know they could do that. The owners seem to think they could pay 175 million. Anyway, >> um of the 11 teams that would need to go above it or 12. Um I think six of them are in playoff positions and multiple of them are current divisional leaders. So I don't really know where where the whole parody thing stands. Um I I the I I should have pulled up the NFLPA response, but it was basically like the owners aren't doing this in good faith.

[00:05:00]>> Yeah, >> they're pretty much not. They're trying to cap a league that doesn't need a cap at all. It needs a floor. It needs, you know, like um they uh I think Alden Gonzalez had a a a graph and they and he basically just highlighted how many times the Dodgers got used as a reference point. And one of them was like the the wage discrepancy between the Dodgers and like six other teams.

[00:05:22]And the teams are like the Pirates, the White Socks, the Rays, the A's, and I think the Cardinals maybe or the Marlins. Yeah. All of those teams if they spent a little bit of money like the White Socks are currently doing very well, as are the Pirates also doing very well. Like there are teams, the A's, they have a good offense. They just need to put some, you spend some money, get some um Oh, and the Guardians were on the list, too. You know, get some pitching. The Guardians and the Rays are considered a pitching factory. They do nothing but develop pitchers. Like, go spend some money. Invest in the product for to supplement your roster. If you're really good at developing pitchers, hey, go go go get some free agent hitters.

[00:05:58]Why not help your pitching staff out?

[00:05:59]Stuff like that. And to anyone who thinks a capp league is going to lower ticket prices, that's a hogwash. Um that that's those ticket prices aren't going anywhere. Sorry guys. Dodger stadium parking lot money is still going to go up every year. Your Dodger dogs are going to get more expensive every year.

[00:06:18]It does not matter if they lower the salary cap. It just doesn't.

[00:06:22]>> Yeah. Or if they have in general >> here's what blows my mind about parody.

[00:06:27]There were a bunch of numbers that I have here and I'm going to start with the one that I think is the most compelling. Since 2001, so I believe that's 25 years.

[00:06:37]>> 25 years.

[00:06:37]>> 25 years.

[00:06:40]16 different franchises have won the World Series.

[00:06:45]Like, think about the fact that half of Major League Baseball has gotten to see their team win a World Series in the last 25 years. And and for context, the NBA that number is 12. In the NFL, that number is 13. So, if par is defined by how many franchises have an opportunity to win the championship, MLB has more pari.

[00:07:07]Some other numbers that jump out to me, um, prior to 2024, from 2018 to 2023, six different teams won the World Series.

[00:07:15]Every single year it was a new World Series champion. Nine different teams won it in the 11 years prior to the Dodgers going back to back.

[00:07:23]>> Um, if you want to look at even last year, the 15th highest payroll were the Mariners. They were a game away from the World Series last year. The Brewers had the 22nd highest payroll. They had the best record in Major League Baseball and made it to the NLCS. The second highest payroll Mets didn't make the playoffs.

[00:07:41]Third and fourth highest payrolls won a combined two games in the divisional series. The number 16 payroll advanced to the divisional series. Numbers 21 and 25 both made the playoffs last year.

[00:07:52]That that's literally the definition of parody. Now, the only reason we're having this conversation is because the Dodgers won back-to-back World Series.

[00:08:00]Do we need to remind people how how tenuous the 2025 World Series was? They were down three games to two headed on the road. If the Blue Jays win the World Series last year, are we having this conversation? Like MLB Spike, by the way, >> totally spike. The owners are so thrilled that the Dodgers won the World Series last year because in bad faith they are going to make an argument they know isn't true, which is that nobody has a chance to win the World Series because of the big bad Dodgers, which for every year between 1988 and 2020, the Dodgers never won anything. And then even if they had a high payroll in 21 and 22 and 23 and 24, guess what? They didn't win anything. So, it's just fortunate timing for the owners. But I'm with you. The parody argument is absolute nonsense. And my hope is that fans are going to be intelligent enough to realize that because there are some people who are not intelligent enough to realize that and the owners are betting on those people having loud voices.

[00:08:57]Absolutely. And the other thing too is this is what's so dumb is baseball. It doesn't matter if the Dodgers are a bad guy. That's fine. If the Dodgers are a bad guy, that's great. Enemies are good for sports. People like having something to universally hate. Baseball has never had more momentum ever. Yeah, there we're people are currently talking about this rookie class being one of the best rookie classes ever. You have, you know, you have um Sal Stewart, Connor or um the the kid in um Detroit. Um you have, you know, just a I bling on all their names, but yes, they're they're talking about this being some of the best rookie talent we've seen in a long long long time.

[00:09:37]>> McGonagal, did you name him?

[00:09:39]>> Yeah, McGonagal. Thank you. That is who I was thinking of. um to have a lockout would be insane to halt that momentum, which by the way, the momentum only helps the owners, >> right?

[00:09:51]>> The momentum doesn't pay the players more. What it does is puts butts in seats. It gets people on the MLB app more subscribers. That lines the owners pockets. Y >> the Angels were already handing out $300 million contracts 10 years ago to Mike Trout and Anthony Ren. These contracts already existed. There's just now there's a bigger microscope on the game because there's so much momentum around it and the owners because they just want more money totally fine hing the hopes that oh maybe they save a few extra bucks this way. It's ridiculous. It's like I if they actually like and I consider baseball and sport in general as a privilege. if you know I don't get to watch a sport that sucks, but it's not like a god-given right. But like I don't want to have like this halted momentum.

[00:10:41]I don't want to just like blow through a CBA just for momentum sake, just so that billionaire owners can make more money.

[00:10:46]That seems ridiculous to me.

[00:10:48]>> Well, and even the 50/50 revenue split seems so reasonable and seems so fair until you remember that then the owner gets to turn around and sell their franchise for $5 billion and the players get none of it.

[00:10:59]>> Yep. Oh yeah, the Padres's just sold 13.

[00:11:01]By the way, the the cap, I'm sure if the cap if they needed a cap and revenue is so far down, the low the the small market Padres's definitely wouldn't have just sold for 4.5 or 4 whatever billion dollars.

[00:11:13]>> Crazy. It's crazy. So, it's a mess. And I mean, right now, as I sit here today, if I gave you like 5050 odds on strike or no strike, like do we miss games in 2027? Where would you be?

[00:11:27]>> It's like 8020. there's going to be a strike. I like and and I'm being optimistic if I'm being completely honest. The last time the owners proposed a seller cap like you mentioned, they stopped the players went on strike mid-season.

[00:11:42]>> Yeah.

[00:11:42]>> So like like there's precedence that the players could do it again which would suck because again baseball like yes it sucks as a Dodgers fan as a baseball fan like because the Dodgers have a chance to three repeat. It would suck to take that away from them. It would suck to take it away from baseball because I just like watching and listening to baseball. But it would just suck to halt all this momentum because they want a salary cap. It would just it would be awful. But there's precedent there. So like 8020 and I'm being optimistic that there's a strike. Yeah, I'm with you. I I don't know if I'd go full 8020, but we all kind of Nothing surprising happened today as far as the owners proposing a salary cap because this is sort of what was expected. And yet when you actually read that this is like an official proposal, this is where they're going to start negotiations. Um it's crazy. It's crazy. And and to your point, like hopefully the players response to this isn't like, okay, watch this, you know, like all that momentum, all that we're we're >> I also don't want them to cave in any way either. like they cuz salary caps like the other part of salary caps and salary floors is the guys at the top end are going to make their money. The Mookie bets, the Mike Trouts, the show, they're going to get their money. Where a lot of this comes down to is the middle the middle class of players. What happens to the guy that you know signs a three-year $45 million contract? Salary caps don't really allow for that because owners will spend big on their big time players. they'll meet the minimum on others and then they don't the middle class of players kind of get left left out the dry like that's who and that's who the NF or the not the NFLPA the MLBPA >> is fighting for they're you know they recognize that their elite talent gets their money they want to make sure and take care of you know the rookies the guys that are just coming up you know fighting for salary floors because they just they want to make sure that their players are taken care of you know it wasn't until the last CBA that they mandated that all the minor leaguers get housed properly, which is something the Dodgers did before that before that CBA.

[00:13:45]Nobody likes to mention that or and feed their minor leaguers. Again, that was something that CBA finally put forward.

[00:13:50]They finally agreed upon something the Dodgers were doing. So, it's that we they want to make sure that they take care of everybody. And I don't want the players union to cave to the billionaire owners even though it would just really suck for baseball in this moment.

[00:14:09]Totally agree. Totally agree. So, we'll see how this plays out, but neither of us optimistic. And I'm curious to hear from people in the comments. How confident are you that the 2027 season is going to happen? Because um I don't know. This isn't the place that you want this conversation to be starting. That's >> You know what? We should The Dodgers should repeat, have a strike, play another 60 game season, go four in a row in the 60 game season. Let's just the Let the Mickey Mouse stuff come back out. It's just ridiculous. Oh my god, I hate labor negotiations. So dumb.

[00:14:44]>> Just pay your players. You're billionaires, >> right?

[00:14:47]>> Pay your players.

[00:14:48]>> It's like you always have to win. It's like everybody's happy right now.

[00:14:51]Everybody's making tons of money.

[00:14:52]Franchise valuations are going up. The sport is growing. Like and and that's my hope, right? Is that the owners start with the salary cap because they know they're never going to get it. And they're going to try and get every little margin otherwise. You know, they're going to keep free agency a million years away from when you join.

[00:15:07]They're going to keep the qualifying offer. They're going to keep player salaries, minimum salaries at $700,000 or whatever it is. Like the best case scenario for us as fans is that is they basically get everything that they want that doesn't involve an actual salary cap. Um that that's the realistic version of this. Like I would love a salary floor. This tells me that the salary floor is not going to happen because the owners are just going to die on the hill of if if the Marlins want to spend 80 million. And that's where it gets interesting because most of the league is pissed that the Marlins are only spending $80 million. But are you really going to vote against the rest of these owners? They need what 23 of the 30 owners or something like that have to vote to uh to approve any any CBA. So um >> yep, >> it's a mess.

[00:15:51]>> Finally, finally on your point about the, you know, like team controls and stuff like that, I tweeted it out earlier. You know, we were and this ties into the Andy Pahes conversation we were having and how good he's been. You know, I didn't just know that he was making $770,000 this year. I looked it up and he's not going to hit free agency until he's 29 years old. He's one of the best players in the sport. Like, yes, the Dodgers, if if the CBA continued, would probably buy out his arbitration, give him some guaranteed money, and throw in a little bit extra, but then he doesn't hit free agent until he's 32. If you look at the NFL, guys are looking for their third contract by the time they're 32. I know the lifespan in the NFL is a lot shorter, but they're getting their third swing. They're getting their third bite at the apple.

[00:16:31]>> Yeah. Yeah, by the time they're 32, Andy Paw might get one.

[00:16:34]>> Like, like the teams have so the owners have so much control over these players lives for so long and they still want to pinch pennies and like over, you know, salary floors and veteran minimums and it's just >> pay your damn players. Just invest in the product. It's never been better.

[00:16:52]Strike while the iron is hot. Like basketball is fading. they have a golden opportunity to really establish themselves as like a force in this country as a sport again and we're MIGHT BE A LOCKOUT. AH yeah looking back on that 94 lockout like it's insane. This is basically how it started and then what happened is um I believe in June the MLB owners withheld like $8 million that they were required to pay into the salary and p the pension and benefits plans and that got upheld legally somehow. And so then the players association end of July said, "Hey, we're going to strike on August 12th unless this is re reached and nothing was reached and so they walked out and then the rest of the season wasn't played." So let's cross our fingers that that's not the world that we're walking into as Dodgers fans here on May 28th.

[00:17:41]But you know, the last time that a salary cap was proposed in Major League Baseball, that's how things play out. So crazy stuff, right? Uh, all right. Let's get to We do have another super chat here from our friend the Enigma $4.99.

[00:17:55]He said, "Ask any NBA fan how messy caps are. It absolutely destroys team building and that's fewer players. I don't want baseball to turn into it." I mean, NBA keeps messing with their rules. They've got like this new agreement and the aprons and can or can't trade players. And to some degree, like you can argue that it is helping spread out players and changing the team building model, but again like the the idea that a cap is going to create parody, is there a single NBA fan right now that thinks like the Spurs and or Thunder aren't going to be playing for the in the finals every single year for the next 10 years? Under the system that currently exists, which is a salary cap, the Spurs have three basically borderline star superstars who are 22 and under. The Thunder have like the most draft pick capital of any team in the entire league and the two-time MVP and like five other dudes who would be the best player on their team. Like the salary cap creating parody is just nonsense and the NBA's proof of it.

[00:18:56]>> Yeah. And to the fans that are like, "Oh, well, because the Dodgers can spend more money than anyone, so they're they're going to get guys like Terrick Skoo and Paul Ske or whatever." Don't be mad at the Dodgers. Be mad at the Tigers and the Pirates for not signing those guys. Like like, you know, maybe if maybe the owners needed more of an incentive to give their super their homegrown superstars like, you know, they needed an incentive to play them, so they gave them a comp pick in round one. if you have like the AL or NL rookie of the year, maybe they need to do that for giving their superstars contracts. I don't know. It's ridiculous. It's just like like I am happy there is no um salary cap obviously, but just the but what people choose to focus on in lie of the salary cap is just infuriating to me.