This Would Be The Most Hilarious Outcome

Added: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]Sometimes the most entertaining outcome is the outcome that we get. We have the latest updates from the Iran situation.

[00:00:08]Does Trump hold all the cards? We shall find out. We've also got the latest on Tesla for you. The memory trade. Are markets getting topped out? A warning from Paul Ter joins. Look at some Bitcoin charts and much, much more. We got a lot to go, so we better get our butts moving. First and foremost, you just have to laugh at this. US intelligence agencies are probing how Toronto would respond if President Trump unilaterally declared victory in the two-monthlong conflict, according to two US officials.

[00:00:38]This is great. America just we won the war. That's it. We're out. Peace. See you later.

[00:00:44]I think Iran would disagree with that statement, but uh question is whether or not America leaving.

[00:00:51]I think everybody kind of noticed that they didn't win the war. But if if this was actually true, America leaving, would that then convince Iran to allow free flow of traffic through the straight of Hormuz? Or would they just keep charging everybody $2 million per boat, which is workable? It's a workable solution, by the way, just charge 2 million bucks, let stuff go through because we are facing some pretty dire consequences. Despite the fact that the stock market keeps pumping, the reality for the global economy is looking increasingly dire the longer the straight horm remains closed because it's not just oil. People say, "Well, I can get oil out through Saudi Arabia and out through the UAE over the over the mountains." Okay, sure. But what about the fertilizer? What about the phosphate? What about the helium? What about the LG? It's a big problem.

[00:01:33]Big problem. President Trump has instructed his aid to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran to compel nuclear capitulation. Trump has opted to continue squeezing Iran's economy and oil experts through a prolonged blockade of the straight of hormuz. Trump believes resuming bombing or walking away from the conflict poses a higher risk than maintaining the blockade.

[00:01:51]Maintaining the blockade will engineer a global recession.

[00:01:55]That's it. Straight horm closed, no ships getting through. Everybody gets screwed in this scenario. Everybody.

[00:02:07]The idea that the blockade will sign uh sufficiently compel Iran to bend the knee to deal with a country of people who have a different system of beliefs. They would be willing to let the whole world burn.

[00:02:26]Don not sure you hold all the cards on this one, buddy. US officials tell Axios they're concerned about getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal. In this scenario, the US keeps his forces in the region for many more months where moods would stay closed and the US would blockade remain. Again, this is now hot war is probably worse because then the straight also remains closed and a lot of people are dying and oil infrastructure permanently gets to destroy the Middle East. But if the straight of Hormuz remains closed and the US blockade remains, we are facing some very dire economic consequences.

[00:02:56]And that's not me trying to be negative.

[00:02:58]That's just the simple facts. Okay?

[00:03:00]What's going to happen when a third of the world's fertilizer doesn't move this year? It doesn't reach farmers. It doesn't go to Asia to grow rice.

[00:03:09]Where's all the food come from?

[00:03:12]We're talking food short. It's not just an inflation problem. We're talking food shortage problems. Now, you guys listening, you live in first world countries, you know, non-developing countries. For the most part, you're probably going to be fine. Well, you'll be annoyed by the inflation that food costs gone up. But for other people, it's going to be devastating. Anyway, Don, Don, I don't know if you got all the cards on this one, buddy. I guess we're going to find out. Hopefully, we get a deal in the next few days, few weeks, but currently no one's talking, and that's problematic. Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA right here. Not bad, Bitcoin. Not bad. That's where you want to see it bounce. You can see we broke above the 20-day EMA down here in the early April, we've had one, two, almost three, fourth retest currently. As long as we keep trading with that 20-day EMA, we're golden. And if we keep trading with that 20-day EMA, the implication is that at some point we have to break out of the channel to the upside. Break below the 20-day EMA, things get more problematic. Break back below that trend line, things are much more problematic.

[00:04:11]And then 69K comes probably a lot sooner than people think, unfortunately.

[00:04:16]Bitcoin on the weekly, a retest of the double bottom neckline breakout pattern.

[00:04:22]It's bullish, actually. Let's see if we can maintain and close the weekly above 79K which would be above the 20week EMA.

[00:04:31]That's the critical thing. That's what you want to see happen here. This is very interesting. This is from um Quantum Ascend. He said onchain bombshell. Bitcoin supply and profit just hit major historical bottoms again. Just pulled up the 7-day MA of Bitcoin supply and profit historically is repeating itself loud and clear. have now dropped the exact same low zone that marked the 2019 bare market bottom, the 2020 COVID crash, and the November 2022 cycle bare market bottom.

[00:05:01]Very interesting. A lot a lot of evidence stacking up here that is going to make four-year cyclists upset.

[00:05:07]Bitcoin just bounced off it lowest. This is from Rand. Bitcoin bounced off it lowest reading versus gold in over a decade. It already did this eight times of four. What happened then? Worst case, 20% in a year plus. Median case 102% up in the next year. Not bad. Current trades over here on Bit Unix. Still in that Salana trade. We got close to getting stopped out. Have not been stopped out yet. We are still in it.

[00:05:30]Long and strong on Salana.

[00:05:33]If we get stopped out, we lose the money. Nvidia stops and moved up to 209.

[00:05:38]I moved it up to 209 just because I thought, well, you know what? In case markets roll over, I'll just take the money and run. It'll be fine. The hype long, by the way, got stopped out. So, the 209 stop loss on Nvidia will equalize that essentially. Obviously, we still want to go for the 230 price target, get some nice profits locked in here, but worst case scenario is that Nvidia gets stopped out for some nice profits, and that it basically makes up for the losses taken on the hype. Long Ethereum, I stopped on it twice this week. I will make this damn thing work at some point. Anyway, current entry on this is uh 22.82.

[00:06:19]Stop loss, what is the stop loss at? Let me tell you, I forget. Stop loss is at 2255. So, it'll be very small loss if that hits. Take profit still at 2640.

[00:06:31]Okay, there you go. If you want to join trading over on Bit Unix, 12 hours left for this current deal. Now, look, you can trade stocks on Bit Unix like Nvidia, like Tesla, big stuff like that.

[00:06:41]You can trade silver, you can trade gold. Okay, they got the markets that you need and it's all done in a crypton native fashion, meaning you deposit USDT and you trade the markets you want to trade. They got the liquidity, they got the stuff you want to trade. Of course, they have their Bitcoin, your XRP, your salon or your Ethereum, all that kind of stuff, too. And when you sign up, use the link down below, okay? Right down here. Click on it. When you use that link, deposit a,000 bucks, you get 200 bucks cash back deposit bonus. And when you put 2,000 bucks in, they'll put about $400 cash money in your account that you can use to trade on Bit Unix. Go check it out. link down below. ETH ah here we are bounced off the 20-day EMA.

[00:07:18]It's not bad. Not too bad at the trend line right here. Let's see. You want it to stay above that. If we have a uh daily close below sort of 2240, let's say it's 50-day EMA. Probably bad news bears for ETH and it goes a lot lower than people would like to think about currently. However, on the flip side, if we can get a damn daily close with this orange box here, we are running up to potentially 2,800, 26.40, I think, at the least around this uh 200 day EMA here.

[00:07:51]Sanah just keeps being one of the weakest of the majors, doesn't it? It's very frustrating. Anyway, we've lost the ascending uh triangle pattern here. Ascending wedge currently retesting the underside of the 20-day EMA and of that uh support line here. So, Salana bulls really need to get together, push the price back up into this area here, back into the wedge because right now it's not looking fantastic.

[00:08:19]Big news for Pump Fun. Uh this is Alon.

[00:08:21]He's the co-founder of Pump Fun. In particular, they have burned all the pump tokens that they bought back over the last year. $370 million worth of purchases. 36% of the current circulating supply.

[00:08:35]However, which is good and now all buybacks will be burned in the future.

[00:08:40]So, it took away that sort of what are they going to do with it? Are they going to use that for airdrop? Are they going to do whatever? Okay, sure. Now, good problem.

[00:08:50]Not the end of the world, but they're not doing 100% buybacks anymore. They did them for almost a year. They're not doing 100% buybacks anymore. They've dropped it to 50%. Which, to be fair, to be fair, that extra money, if they actually invest it into the ecosystem, remains to be seen. Whether they just pocket the money or not, I would not be surprised. Come on, crypto guys. But if they don't just pocket the money and actually use that to reinvest into the ecosystem, it's actually a positive thing. and it grows the total pi, meaning that that 50% buyback from the revenue could still be pretty significant. Okay, let's see.

[00:09:28]It did have a minion little pump here on the chart, but so far not that much.

[00:09:33]It's man, that thing looks bottom out.

[00:09:35]This is the weekly chart, by the way, on pump. You can see it has broken out of a major major downtrend and it has been basically bottoming out right in this uh 001617 zone for quite a while. Currently attempting to move higher. Let's see.

[00:09:50]Kind of tempted to put in a long on that one, especially after the pullback today. Let's zoom in on the daily here to give you a little bit of a different perspective on it.

[00:10:00]Still trading about the 20-day.

[00:10:03]Currently trading right the 50day. I feel like almost I I don't know. I might I'll I'll update you guys if end up doing that. But I can almost see putting in a trade here around these levels for a 50-day EMA retest with a stop right down here below the 20-day EMA. So, either it actually is breaking out. It's going to gain momentum or it's just going to fail like so many other rallies have failed. This is interesting. Let's have a quick listen from Paul Tudor Jones, the goat of goat investors. Let's go.

[00:10:26]>> Clearly so leveraged in equities in this country.

[00:10:32]We're so dependent upon firm equity prices at this point in time. And when I say leveraged, we're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. So 1929 we were I think at the top we were 65%.

[00:10:53]And then in 87 we got to about 85 or 90%. In 2000 we got to 170% and now we're at 252. So you can just imagine if you think about the periodicity of significant bare markets since 1970. We get kind of a mean reversion about on average every 10 years. When I say mean reversion, let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30 year PE. So if we did that here that would be and again these are elevated peas way elevated be uh beyond the 20th century that would be a say a 30 35% decline well 35% on 250% of GDP is 80 90% of GDP the reverse wealth effect oh my gosh 10% of our tax revenues or capital gains they go to zero so you can see the budget deficit blowing up you can see the bond market getting smaller of you can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. And so it's troubling. We're clearly in a sovereign debt bubble uh in the stock market. We're overquitized as a country. Have the highest individual equity waitings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007208 that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of institutional portfolios. Real estate's gone up. Infrastructure bets have gone up. We're so much more liquid than we were in 2008. So you have to be cognizant of that fact when you think about how you have your money deployed.

[00:12:42]I had a friend ask me. He said, 'If you were investing for 20 years, what would you tell somebody?

[00:12:48]And because he knows that I'm supposed to say, I'm you just buy the S&P, close your eyes. Well, the problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year Ford returns negative when you buy with the S&P P of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is a spectacular long-term if you have a 100redyear view, but that's because that's an average of a 100 years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was six and seven and eight or oneird of what it is right now. So valuation matters a lot and the stock market's really high and it's going to be really hard to make money from here.

[00:13:34]>> Okay.

[00:13:36]I know that was a bit of a long clip.

[00:13:37]Thank you for sticking with me if you're still here. However, I think that is an incredibly important clip because this is Paul Tudor Jones, okay? One of the goat investors out there, okay? And what is he saying? If you're investing money in the stock market right now, it's going to be really hard to make money going forward. Now, we shared the charts with you guys that, hey, you know what?

[00:14:01]Maybe we're still in the early stages of the AI thing. Maybe we're going to go up to 150%. And I think Paul Dudor Jones, I think he famously, was it him or Stan?

[00:14:08]Oh, maybe it was Stan Ducken Miller.

[00:14:10]Anyway, I think it was Stan actually, but he shorted a bunch of the big dot stocks in late 99 or something like that and got absolutely smoked. All those companies went to zero two years later.

[00:14:24]So, is Paul Tudor Jones in this situation? He's saying, "Well, it's gonna be hard to make money from here."

[00:14:29]Sure, if you're just buying the S&P 500, NASDAQ, whatever, set it, forget it, because we could be heading towards a very violent downturn in markets, especially if the Iran situation doesn't find some kind of resolution in a very, very short matter of time. You have to understand the impact of that. That being said, doesn't mean you can't make money in the short term. A lot of things are going up in price dramatically. So, however, risks are rising. You have to understand when markets are up, when stocks have gone up a,000% 2,000% in a year.

[00:15:07]Okay, that's a situation where the riskreward starts changing dramatically. You say, "Wow, I'm going to buy SanDisk today."

[00:15:15]Okay, you missed out on 3,500% upside, but sure, buy SanDisk today, hoping to double it. Who the [ __ ] buying Nvidia today? I mean, really, what do you think? Oh, Nvidia is going to double to 10 trillion dollars. like, dude, on what time frame?

[00:15:32]Most of the best gains in stocks have largely been had already. And we get things like SpaceX coming out at a $2 trillion valuation with a 500x PE ratio.

[00:15:47]Not fantastic. Just a thought for you. I hope that you appreciate that the insights there from uh Mr. Tudor.

[00:15:53]Anyway, S&P 500 now trading at the very top of 8year trend line. Man, it either needs to break the heck through that 8year trend line or it is getting smoked and smoked come back down to the end of that trend line. That's around uh 55 5700 right now. By the time it gets down to probably around 6,000, but still still worth keeping an eye of. Open AAI misses key revenue user targets and high stakes sprint toward IPO. Oh man, OpenAI desperately needs that IPO, man. They got to dump those bags on your ass. VCs need to dump those bags on your ass, man. I you know when the next bare market comes I think SpaceX and Anthropic are probably going to be screaming buys when they drop 90% in the bare market which they probably will open AI Sam Alman no man not not in it not not keen not keen not my cup of tea man buy stocks of relentless people says Q record Q1 earnings for Bloom Energy. The product Noah wanted to became the only thing that can keep AI data centers from going dark. Backlog six near 20 billion.

[00:17:01]Brookfield backing 5 billion for infrastructure. Oracle signed up for 2.8 gawatts of fuel cells. It's actually really interesting uh idea. It's uh what is it? Solid state fuel cells. Very interesting. Here you go. Bloom solid oxide fuel cells drop on site, run on natural gas, and turn on in months.

[00:17:23]It's big. It's big, guys. Blue energy looks like this. Up 1,500% in a year.

[00:17:29]Now, is there more upside? I mean, pre-markets are showing us at 271 after the earnings yesterday. Absolutely ripping. Absolutely ripping. Okay.

[00:17:40]However, however, it is getting absolutely super super overextended here on the MACD. This is a daily chart. Okay. Now, can it keep going up? Can it go $300, $400? Sure, why not? However, you have to understand buying this now, you're buying it after a 1,500% run. You are relatively late to the move at this point. Okay? Now, we shared a report on this back here, and it is definitely a very interesting stock, but it doesn't mean you have just because it's an interesting stock doesn't mean you have to pile into it at this particular valuation. Ideally, you wait for the chart to look more like this or like this.

[00:18:21]But fundamentally very interesting company. A lot of companies are like that. You're going to have see a big draw down a lot of these things over the notsodistant uh future. But anyway, I'm rambling at this point, but uh you guys get the idea. You want to buy things when they're cheap, not when they're absolutely ripping like this is.

[00:18:39]Micron Tech DRAM. So DRAM is uh an ETF of memory chips. This is the Round Memory ETF. Okay.

[00:18:50]Projected 2027 operating profit of three memory companies, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla combined, 660 uh billion dollars. But the three memory chip companies $700 billion. And and the market caps of these combined is way way less than the market cap of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla combined. Okay. Right now, uh, Samsung's around a trillion. SKH Highix is half a trillion. Micron's half a trillion.

[00:19:25]Very, very, very interesting. You see here, market cap of the other companies is 16 trillion. Market cap of these is two.

[00:19:33]So, that would guess then imply around 8x upside here for these. Not to say that they have to do that, but the revenues are absolutely insane. The profits are off the charts. And that's the other side of the story here. So Paul Tudor Jones probably right, but things can get a lot crazier before the big crash comes. We could even see this extended in 2028 as we discussed here before. We could see that channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in break out to the upside. That's what it did in the dot boom was right up there tapping tapping tapping and then smashed right through and put in 250% gains in the final parabolic phase of the stock market rally. In the.com boom, we will have theai crash. It's coming. But the question is, are we there yet? Or are we getting close? That's the That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? By the way, we shared a report on Micron Tech back here. It's up a 140% since that time. Justin Banks here saying Wall Street still values Tesla a car company.

[00:20:32]Everyone has Tesla wrong. By 2031, selling cars will only be 40% of the business. The rest cyber cabs, robots, energy, and services.

[00:20:42]bouncing off the downtrend line currently trying to retake the 20-day EMA upside here to at least the top of the uh resistance here which was uh stopped out two times of four is around $500 if it can maintain above this downtrend line right here.

[00:21:02]Anyway, that's it for today. You guys are awesome. Hey, by the way, if you're not sign yet, it's awesome and awesome people like you should join it. 7-day free trial. We're sharing trade setups.

[00:21:13]We're sharing reports on stuff like Micron Tech before it had its under 40% rally. We'd love to see you in there.

[00:21:18]Link down below. Thanks so much. See you back in the next one. Bye.