The Crypto Bear Market Is ENDING (If This Happens Next)!

[00:00:01]It may not look like it on the daily Bitcoin chart, but we are at a crucial moment for cryptocurrency in general. This is perhaps even more true for the altcoin market cap graph. This trend line, which extends all the way to October 2025, is fluctuating high.

[00:00:14]We're squeezed into this, but it's a fusion of this altcoin market cap chart and this price action on the daily chart. We are going to look at targets and areas to watch on the daily chart, even to the downside, but it is a merging of those charts with this one. And this is the weekly chart of Bitcoin. This is the MACD momentum oscillator. And this MACD line is getting ready to break above this red line, the signal line. And this happens as we start a new week. We are a few hours away from the close of this weekly candle.

[00:00:46]And when we think about cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency cycles and the potential entry into a new bull market, a new bullish move in an upward direction. Right now we just have an intersection of reduced, and I mean very reduced, weekly and short-term price action coming together right now. So, here's what I want to discuss in this video.

[00:01:06]Subscribe to the video and let's just do it. This is the MACD on the weekly chart.

[00:01:11]So I want to start with the weekly chart and then we'll move into the price action of Bitcoin and start to scale up, for example I want to look at the targets up and down because I started this video. I'm just saying that I know it doesn't seem like anything unstable. We are now at a really crucial point in this timeline, and we will get, I think, even within a few days, an answer on what comes next. But before I talk about what it is, what to look for, why it's a crucial moment, I want to briefly review the weekly schedule. We've talked about so many different perspectives on this weekly Bitcoin chart with Bitcoin cycles.

[00:01:53]If you review my analysis, you know that a lot of my analysis compares this downturn that we've been in since December to this post-quantitative era of strength for cryptocurrency. This is a decline– normalization phase. I compared it to the post-QT drop in 2019. And this is important because we are going to look at this momentum oscillator trying to find a bottom. We see a similar, uh, bullish divergence to the 2022 bottom as we do now. And you can see it right here on the RSI, just a higher low on the RSI. We talk about these things, but what I want to look at with you is this.

[00:02:32]Number one, this MACD bottomed out right here in March. Okay, the MACD line was just making its way above this signal line here in April. And we had this upward momentum shift, right? All this time we have the price of Bitcoin just falling, right? So, this is another part of the bullish divergence. That's why, if we look at this divergence for many indicators, you can just see, you know, we get this, uh, histogram divergence that reaches, uh, around the end of June, right?

[00:03:05]Because that's exactly what's starting to happen now. You can see this simple bullish divergence on this histogram.

[00:03:12]But what I want to draw your attention to is just this movement in general, right? It's a boom and then we actually do something like a bearish move, the MACD drops below the signal line and now we're about to rise above it again. This is that movement right here. This is all about momentum as we try to discern where we are in this cycle. So I want to go to the previous bottoms, and there are two that I want to look at. Number one is the bottom of 2022, right? Just look at this.

[00:03:42]We haven't even had this kind of movement in this area before. So to open the histogram, MACD, you can just see the bottom and it's kind of consolidated, but we haven't had any bearish movement down. MACD did not fall below the signal line. It just trended above it, and we just trended up throughout that whole move. So this squeeze, this consolidation that's happening right now, I think, is a perfect example, an illustration for all of us of the oppression that's happening in the cryptocurrency space in general. But I also really think this is a picture of some type of mid-cycle consolidation. As you know, we will be looking at altcoin charts in this video. I don't think altcoins have had their bull market, they haven't had any bull market yet. I know they avoided the 2022 lows.

[00:04:33]They tested the historical highs of the past cycle, but this altcoin market cap chart did not have a bull market. He simply wasn't there. I think it was a bare market. This entire chart looked like a 5- year naked market from the 2021 highs. So keep that in mind as we conduct this Bitcoin analysis. We're going to get closer to the price action, but this is, in my opinion, a picture from the post, sorry, mid-cycle consolidation for Bitcoin, because Bitcoin hasn't even had its bullish move yet. So, going back to the MACD, if we zoom out, we get a picture of 2012 that is pretty similar, in that respect, just bottoming out and rising, because that's what's happening right here. But I want to come back, I want to come back here, um, by 2018. So that's really the main time that we have is July 2018 and then boom all the way up to December 2018. This is like the main time you can see Bitcoin on this MACD rising above the signal line, then falling again, and then coming back higher. This was that second turn above the signal line. Please note the date, February 2019.

[00:05:45]This second MACD turn blue above the signal line.

[00:05:49]February 2019. Why is this important? I mean, it's important to me because if you go back to February 2019, look at this. This is Bitcoin breaking out of the 200-week moving average. This is Bitcoin, which is breaking above the 20-week moving average. And what do we have now?

[00:06:09]Now, if you go to the Bitcoin charts, Bitcoin is literally testing this 200- week moving average in a way that requires cycles. And I keep saying in previous videos, these kinds of movements require cycles, because that's where we are. We are in accumulation mode. I mean, we are in the zone of opportunity.

[00:06:30]As for me, in my free time I think seriously and make an effort to try to figure out what I'm currently accumulating.

[00:06:37]And that's where we are. This is simply because it requires cycles.

[00:06:41]I know everyone wants to say we're falling, and maybe we are, but if the bottom is now, if the bottom is in October, it doesn't matter to me. We are inside. And you can see this green rectangle right here. It's like a zone of opportunity.

[00:06:55]Whether the bottom is already in or we're heading to the bottom right here like the $50,000 range in October, we're in a zone of opportunity. But I digress.

[00:07:03]This is the way we interact with this 200WE moving average. The 20-week moving average is right above where Bitcoin is currently. If we see Bitcoin move to $ 69,000 above $70,000 and we break away from the 200E moving average, we break through and pass through the 20- week moving average. And we're doing this at this point of similar MACD momentum, uh. Right? Here's a similar momentum md that we had all the way back here in February 2019 when we were coming out of the bottom. It's just so noticeable. And obviously we have similarities here. There simply wasn't a second bearish MACD move below the signal line above the signal line. But this is where we are now. And this is so interesting because it could close when the MACD rises above the signal line with this weekly candle. This histogram can fall into the green box. And I mean, we're a few hours away from this closing now. And that's all when we start to follow what's happening on the daily Bitcoin chart, as well as the daily chart of this altcoin market cap chart. You can see how much it contracts when it hits this trend line. So, before we look at the altcoin charts, I want to take a look at Bitcoin. And I just want to show you something on the daily chart. I know I said it doesn't seem like anything special, but we are at a crucial moment. It's not all talk. I think we are really at a crucial moment. And I'm going to show you exactly why. If you just... Let me show you this first. Just pay attention to what's happening. The 20-day moving average is also about to test this 50-day moving average. This is a very important thing in terms of whether you are looking for a short-term reversal, a medium-term reversal, or even a macro reversal. This is the first step. 20 above 50.

[00:08:51]This is exactly what we want. Look, here are 20 above 50. This was the beginning of a very big movement. This does not mean that every time you get such a move, it will result in a bullish move. And that's what I want to focus on, and we'll discuss it. But any time you get the first 20 above 50, that's the first move we're looking for. Well, this is preparation. Now, what I want to draw your attention to is, well, we had 20 above 50 right here. It was a failure, was n't it? You can just see how Bitcoin tested this area and fell right below it. And we also had 20 above 50 right here. And it looked almost as good as it did here in December-November. That's about 20 above 50. We even stepped back and showed support there.

[00:09:32]Looks good. And then boom, surrender, right? We must be very careful. So, essentially, it was a failure. It was a failure. This did not result in a bullish move. And the most important thing about this movement is that we consolidated and made a leap forward.

[00:09:48]This is the 200-day moving average. This 200-day moving average is very important for Bitcoin to break through. So now let's talk about the upward target first. The only target that matters for Bitcoin, I know we talked about, is the 20- week moving average at around $70,000. That's a huge number in macroeconomic terms, but in reality Bitcoin can go a little bit above that level and still fail. The important number is the 200- day moving average.

[00:10:15]In my opinion, it is around $73,000. So if Bitcoin simultaneously breaks above the 20-day moving average, it is a good first step in macroeconomic terms. This is a huge, huge picture of a turnaround. You can see what happened in 2022. But if we get enough strength and power at the same time to get above that $73,000 area, that's where I think we'll see the bears get a little nervous because that was, you know, and you can see that resistance in May of 2026. This is simply an area of ​​resistance on bare moves, bare markets, bare consolidations that you need to be careful of and remember because it acts as a very large resistance. So for Bitcoin, this is the main growth target. But now, if Bitcoin can break out to a flat level, come back down and test 20 and 50 as they reverse, and go up to 200 to test it, that would be a macro test. So it's a cautionary tale until we even get to that, right? So, we're at 64,000 now. This movement could fail, right? And if that happens, Bitcoin might just start to fall. Be careful with any Sunday pump.

[00:11:26]If it happens tonight or later today, it often happens that we get a Sunday pump and suddenly we start the week in the red.

[00:11:33]Bitcoin is falling. We are in the 60s, right? In two days. Well, if that's the case, then on this chart I would look for continued consolidation in Bitcoin. We may hit a lower low where we reach $56,000. We already talked about this, I think, in a recent video.

[00:11:51]The divergence that is happening here regarding Bitcoin has even more time. Bitcoin may just continue to consolidate this week, fluctuating, still creating a bullish divergence, while the price on the daily chart is falling. So be very careful with the $56,000 target.

[00:12:07]This lower low for Bitcoin, this trend line that is unfolding. But we are at a crucial point, namely at the 50 mark or, sorry, 20 above 50.

[00:12:15]This movement is constantly happening, and you can see how long it takes. The last time 20 actually broke above 50 was around here sometime in April, right? It's July now. So it took time. Bitcoin already exists. Let's see what happens. But I think the most noticeable thing is that we're not here, right? We live in a different time than January 2026, or March, or April 2026. And we live in a fundamentally different time when we think about what momentum does.

[00:12:48]Just look at how different the structure of Bitcoin is starting to look as it hits bottom. Now we actually have a structure. Now we have a momentum structure.

[00:12:57]This was not the case before. So I think it's very important and noticeable.

[00:13:01]So, here is a chart of altcoin market capitalization. Hmm, actually it's maybe even bigger than the weekly MACD. This is the weekly MACD we were talking about for Bitcoin. What is about to happen with this really important weekly close, this MACD above the signal line? Well, look at the altcoin market cap chart. MACD now.

[00:13:18]If we look at this, we will see that it has already happened. So, we had a MACD signal line crossing, a pullback, and then boom, the MACD rises above the signal line again. And right now, this is happening with the two 200-week moving averages and the 20-week moving average literally just above where all the coins are. I mean, we're looking at four to six percent of that.

[00:13:42]If all coins rise above this or rise above these moving averages while MACD does so, please just pay attention. I don't know what you're doing there. I don't know what your solutions look like. Manage your risks, but pay attention because we are all in a very typical bottoming formation. This is something that has happened before.

[00:14:09]Reaching a bottom below these moving averages and then exploding above them. This is what happens on the bottoms.

[00:14:15]We are there now. The altcoin market cap chart is available right now. Bitcoin on the weekly chart is right now.

[00:14:22]Look at this MACD.

[00:14:23]So, going back to the daily chart of all coins, this is all happening while we are also undergoing testing. And there is a warning on this chart as well. But we, I mean, just look how close we are to a daily breakout of this trend line. I mean, it's about 2% of this trend line that goes all the way to October 2025. So I'm really interested to see how Bitcoin's weekly candle opens, how this daily altcoin market cap chart, everything but Bitcoin, how it works as it squeezes into this trend line that goes back to October 2025. And at the same time, you can even see 20 approaching 50 right now. So this is a test. This is not a guarantee of any bullish confirmation at all. But we have a feeling that we are close to potential bullish confirmation on all of these charts.

[00:15:14]But what's strange is that you can see that at the same time we are in the warning zone. A false exit is possible. It can be rejected. This altcoin market cap chart could be rejected right here at this trend line. And 20 above 50 could fail and we consolidate below. We are setting a lower low on the altcoin market cap chart. You know, a loss of market capitalization of hundreds of billions of dollars over the next one to two weeks. This can happen. Pay close attention to this daily altcoin market cap chart to test this lower trendline.

[00:15:44]This is the macro bottom trend line. She is in the game.

[00:15:47]But at the same time, we are now trapped in this trend line. While the MACD on the altcoin market cap chart is doing this, the Bitcoin MACD is doing this as we are about to close a new weekly candle.

[00:16:01]It's time to manage your risks, to be careful, to be prepared, because I believe we are in a zone of opportunity, and that obviously has to do with caution, but at the start of this new week, I would like to introduce all of this to you. I think for me, it's just a series of good areas to watch on all these charts and to see how the price action interacts with the market, the opening of the markets this week, and everything else that's happening this week. There are headlines and narratives that also influence short-term price dynamics. So these headlines could cause Bitcoin to hit a lower low, or they could push Bitcoin up and through the 20-week moving average. You just don't know. So let's follow the Law of Clarity. Let's keep an eye on everything that's happening from a geopolitical perspective and just try to be prepared in any case. So I appreciate all of you for watching.

[00:16:47]If you are not subscribed, please subscribe.

[00:16:49]Turn on notifications. This is very important to me. I'm just grateful that you're here watching us navigate our way through these markets.

[00:16:55]See you in the next video. Have a nice day and a nice week, and may God bless you.