Cardano (ADA) - Suffering (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates. So, the market situation unfortunately is not really that interesting, but I want to talk about what's going on on the 4hour chart.

[00:00:21]Yesterday, I believe we talked about the weekly. So, in this video, I'm going to focus more on the shorter time frame.

[00:00:27]And yeah, here we still have some kind of one two setup followed by another one two setup. I think we might be working on some kind of much bigger third wave of this one too, which basically means that the second one two is the, you know, one two of the third wave and then we can hopefully start a much bigger third wave. The short-term target for the third wave is between 17.8 cents and 18.4 cents. But even if we get to this target zone, I'm not going to be able to confirm at the low is in until we manage to complete a four and a five as well.

[00:00:58]This could easily be some kind of much bigger ABC and not a one to three. And it could be an a much bigger B wave of another much bigger ABC as well. So if we decide to drop to maybe like 14 cents, but if we decide to break below this support zone that is currently between 15.9 cents and 14.9 cents, then that's going to mean that we're going to invalidate the entire one two setup here and that we're going to pretty much overextend the third to the downside. We do have some support here on the RSA at the trend line. We bounced about let's say five times already there. So, I think that there is a chance we get to the trend line and then we get some kind of move to the upside. But even if we do, the move to the upside is not going to be, you know, too crazy in my opinion, at least based on what's happening with Bitcoin. But yeah, we'll see what happens with this. I mean, it's not the best setup in the world. And this move to the upside was only a one to three by the looks of it. Yes, it could be counted as a 1 2 3 4 5 if you really want to, but yeah, it's not the best fivewave move up. And even if we get some kind of move to the upside, it's probably just going to be a fake out. Now, moving on to the daily chart here. We broke back above the moving average on the RSA yesterday or a couple of days ago. And even though we, you know, broke above it, we seem to be below it again today. And I think that closing below it today is going to give us a move like what we got back in May of this year. So, first of all, we were above the moving average for a couple of weeks. We stayed above it, but then after we broke below it, we tried testing it. when we got the move to the upside and that's when the price pretty much got rejected and it went from 28 cents to 14 cents. So I think that right now this was probably the test of the moving average and we're going to start going down very soon. This even happened many times during the move to downside over here. As you can see we tried testing the moving average many times as support and each time we tried staying above it we failed to do that and we pretty much formed a lower low every single time. This even happened back in this area. We broke below it and then we dropped from like 40 cents to 21 cents in a very short amount of time. So the market situation is not really the best right now. But that's just my opinion.

[00:03:09]I'm not going to talk about the weekly.

[00:03:10]Like I said, I talked about it yesterday. So let's quickly go to the Bitcoin chart on the 4 hour. This is not the best setup either, unfortunately.

[00:03:18]Even though we are currently above support, I mean I could count this as some kind of maybe one two one two one two setup. But yeah, even if we get a move to the upside right now, it's probably not going to put us above the b market support band.

[00:03:32]The reason for that is because the C wave to the downside of the bare market is probably not over and we only have some kind of one two setup of that much bigger Cwave. It's not really easy to tell if the first wave of the Cwave, you know, was in back in this area right here or if it actually bottomed right there and we are just starting the second wave move up. And that means that we, you know, did not find a top in the second wave right there back in June.

[00:03:58]But instead, we're going to find a top very, very soon, hopefully this month.

[00:04:02]And then only after that, we can start going down into a much bigger red third wave. This support zone on the chart is only for the scenario that the first wave bottom right there. And the scenario is that we drop to $48,000 first before we try starting a much bigger move. But if the low was actually this one right here, then the target for the red third wave is going to have to be between $46,000 and $40,000. So it's not really a big difference, but but it could mean maybe we're going to start some kind of much bigger C wave of this AB setup right now. And that's going to be the actual second wave move up and not what we got back in this area. And what we got back here was only some kind of fourth wave of a 1 2 3 4 5. That could obviously be the case, but so far we have stayed below these highs of the second wave of this other one too, which means that this, you know, very weird one to set up is theoretically still valid. And this could just continue to break down right now and start the actual, you know, third wave right there. That's going to be a third. Then we're going to need to get a fourth wave. And then we're going to need to get a fifth wave, a gray fifth wave.

[00:05:08]And then we can start going up around August or September and complete another ABC to the upside for this fourth wave.

[00:05:15]Maybe get to the b market support band or so. And then later in the year around October, we can get a fivewave move down to complete the fifth wave. And then also get to the target zone right here for the much bigger C-wave. There is currently between I believe let's see how much actually I believe it was like $37,000 and yeah $28,000.

[00:05:35]So that's where I'm expecting the bottom. And also understand that it looks like we're going to get a cross on the bottom market support band here. The last time we had a cross like this where the red line went above the green line was back in this area. And then I mean we pretty much went from $126,000 to around $50,000 in a matter of around 4 months. This even happened back in this area.

[00:05:59]We got across new bond markets boardband and we dropped from like $98,000 to $74,000.

[00:06:06]And then it also happened back here. We got a cross and then we went from like 71K to around 50K. And you get the idea.

[00:06:13]This happened many times. Even back here we got a cross and then we just went from 31K to 24K. So each time we got a cross was, you know, bearish even in the b market. And obviously in a bare market it's probably going to be even more bearish. But it doesn't really matter what we do to be honest. Even if we get a move to the upside and even if the, you know, first wave was actually in right here and we're going to start a much bigger second wave right now, it's not really going to change anything. At least in my opinion. But yeah, let's quickly look at the daily chart as well.

[00:06:44]Here we are still above the moving average on the RSI, I believe. But I think that once Bitcoin closes below that moving average, just like on the ADA chart, it's going to be a repeat of what we did pretty much every single time in this per market when we had some kind of uptrend. So we stayed above the moving average for a couple of weeks and then after breaking below it we formed a lower high at least compared to the previous couple of lower highs and each time we broke below the moving average we you know tried testing it we got rejected and then we went down quite a lot. I mean if the second time not the second time I'm sorry the first time we did this was you could say somewhere back in this area and during the short term at least we dropped from $125,000 to $80,000. This was a 36% drop. Then the second time it happened was back here. We dropped about 38%. And the third time was a couple of weeks ago and we dropped around 30%. So I think a 30% drop is still likely. But if we manage to bounce off that moving average, there's a, you know, scenario where we form some kind of lower high again compared to the previous lower high. And that's when we actually find a bottom.

[00:07:51]I'm sorry, a top at least a local top.

[00:07:54]And that's when we maybe got to the bottom. it's support band or so and this is going to act as another rejection. We got rejected about two times so far. I mean back then and even back then if you could say also back in this area. So I think another rejection is not going to be the end of the world especially because in every single market so far Bitcoin pretty much stayed below the b market sport band the entire time and it only got back above it when the bare market was over.

[00:08:21]Matter of fact, before we had a real bare market low, the b market support band had to be tested. Back in that area, we tested it. We got rejected and we went from $21,000 to $15,000 in a matter of one week. Even back in 2017, as you can see, back in this area, we were going sideways pretty much below the bar market support band the entire time. Then the b market support band catched up with the price and because it catched up we got rejected and that's what gave us a move from $6,400 to $3,000 in a matter of like three or four weeks and I believe this also happened back in 2013. Let's quickly double check. So here back in this area we tried testing the b market. We got rejected around November and then we went down from $400 to around $150 in a matter of around two months. You get the idea. we always stay below it and we always get a real well not a real but we get some kind of significant move to the downside exactly before a bare market low. This to me does not really look like a bare market low. It only looks like pretty much a start of the Cwave of this AB. So I think that at this point we might be somewhere in this area right here. And if we are indeed somewhere in this area, then I think the price is unfortunately going to start going down soon and we're going to get a drop like what we had back then or somewhere in this area.

[00:09:43]You probably already know my strategy by this point and you probably already know that I'm expecting Bitcoin to get to the oversold territory on the monthly RSI for the first time ever. The RSI is currently, let's see where at 44. So getting to maybe like $44,000 or $34,000 is going to be way more than enough to get oversold right there and break the bearish divergence that we started all the way back in 2012 back in that area.

[00:10:08]And that's going to be then enough to maybe start some kind of move to the moving average right there on the monthly RSA. Get rejected like we did a couple of times in the past or at least maybe get above it and then test it at support and then bounce off of it like we did many times like for example back in that area and like in this area over here and even back here and that's when we finally get on the alltime highs again and break above the previous you know cycle highs right there on the RSI and also obviously break alltime highs as well. Well, to do that, yeah, we need to get oversold first. In my opinion, we are currently going sideways above the 0.32 support level of the entire move to the upside from the bare market lows to the alltime highs.

[00:10:49]So, I think once we break below the 0.32 support level right there at $56,000, it's going to pretty much lead to a very big drop to at least 44K and even 34K.

[00:11:00]That's all I have for this video. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon. If you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily discord updates, like, subscribe, and I'll see you in the next