BTC Monthly Breakout: $85K Next or Bull Trap? Selling Wall Crumbling

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hello guys, welcome to the training parrot. Today, Bitcoin is breaking out, but not just any level. A level that has kept the price of Bitcoin under a trend line since November 2024. That is a massive milestone that doesn't come alone. It also comes for the first time with an RSI of 70. Yes, today the last time that Bitcoin was trading in the current range, the RSI took double the time that we took now to reach an RSI of 70. But the last time we were in a bull market, this time we are in a bare market and we took less time to do the same thing. things are upside down and we have achieved the level of first resistance of the CPR in the month of May which is a massive milestone that the month of April was forecasting. And hold on the horses because on the monthly time frame we are about to witness the test needed to potentially reclaim previous monthly trading range.

[00:01:07]And guess what? The selling wall that we are currently seeing right above the price right above $82,000 is smaller than the selling wall that we had at $98,000. Does that mean that we are about to see another move into $85,000? Guys, if you like this type of content, make sure that you're subscribed to the channel. Hit notification bell to get notified every time I put out one of these videos.

[00:01:34]1,000 likes will be fantastic. But yesterday video we got 4.7K views which means that today's video the one that you're watching needs 700 likes which is needed for you to claim for free 12 months of elite membership in my community. That gives you access not just to the Discord server but to all my indicators everything that I'm currently using to do datadriven trading. Now I'm going to give something else away. If we reach the 700 likes in this video, I'm not just going to give that away, but I'm also going to run a sale for a full week. Everything in my Patreon is going to be 50% off if in this video we reach the 700 likes. All right, there is no new CME gap form, but I'm observing this particular pattern in here that is form invisible only on CME. This definitely looks like an ascending wedge. This is a bearish pattern. It can have still a bullish breakout, but it's less likely than the bearish resolution. So, let's keep an eye on how this evolves. I do have a bullish narrative as well that I want to share with you. Many things are flipping extremely quickly and we need to make sure that we keep track of them.

[00:03:00]Starting with the aggregated open interest. Do you remember that in the past weeks whenever we were looking at the aggregated open interest, we were comparing it with the previous bare flag that put a high in here, impulsive move, pullback, final wave in here, and then it breaks down the support, test the support, and then the puke. Pretty much everything around this trading range has been different on the open interest. We did have the two peaks in here that are very similar to the two pigs in the bare flag into $98,000. But there was a main difference with this move down in here with this wash out of the open interest.

[00:03:41]We were unable to break below the previous low and that defense the bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. And since this pivot in here, even when we were at that level in there, we say there is nothing broken yet. I cannot really say anything bearish about this so far. Right after that, we did manage to not just test the resistant, but it has been compromised.

[00:04:12]And guys, this means that the aggregated open interest this morning is screaming, screaming loud and clear. Price might do the same thing. Let's go to the price and let's see because the price is obviously lagging what the open interest has already done. If the price manages to do the same, price can get so far into the area of the $88,000 because the open interest has gotten into precisely that point of control. Remember this is a single data point. We are going to track it is checking one of the boxes for additional upside. Now let's see where is the weakness as well. We cannot do a full assessment, a full analysis of the market if we really don't put all the items on the table and we observe them for what they are. What else do we have? We have a swarm of QFL signals.

[00:05:09]These are quick fingers look signals that became really popular like two cycles ago. I became a huge fan of this.

[00:05:18]I was running trading bots like crazy with these signals and you can see that is screaming for one thing at least.

[00:05:26]It's saying give me a bull flag in here please. So what I'm doing is basically placing a bull flag here. A place holder that is tracking the high constantly. I started from here and seeing where are we going to get that bull flag. So far we don't get it. So far, it's taking longer than the usual time that it takes to form a bull flag or an actual rejection. Remember, rejections typically start with a bull flag that does not manage to break out to the upside. Like for example, in here up until here, you get a bull flag up until there is a bull flag, but it fails.

[00:06:05]Whereas some other bull flags like this one in here reaches the golden pocket of this extension and eventually takes a new high. So we are monitoring for that resolution. Are we going to get a bull flag? Is it going to fail or is it going to continue into $85,000 following what the aggregated open interest has already achieved? Yes, I treat the aggregated open interest as a leading indicator. Yesterday we had a MACD bullish cross that now is absolutely fully confirmed. There's nothing that we can say. I was taking for granted yesterday that we were going to close it and settle it in a bull cross. But now is the only time I can tell you, yeah, now it's settled.

[00:06:50]There's nothing that can happen now apart from getting a subsequent bare cross. Of course, that could still happen, right? But so far this is doing the opposite that we did in the previous bare flag. When we face 98 we got a bare cross and we did not undo it. Instead we actually follow through with the downside into minus 5.5k in terms of the MACD value. In this case, instead of seeing immediately the rejection, we are kind of seeing a bull crossing here, which is calling for additional upside at the moment. That is putting a lot of pressure against this still being called by some YouTubers a bare flag despite the fact that my opinion is that with today daily candle, we can decide if we are still inside or outside the bull flag. Why is that? Because yesterday on the daily time frame if we connect this with that body which is my personal preference I will say that yesterday we manage to close right at the resistance.

[00:07:58]So it is today where we are having that chance for this green candle to say breakout. Okay. Now what is the RSI saying about that breakout? The RSI already yesterday broke out. A small breakout but yesterday it settled a breakout. So the RSI is saying, "Yeah, I'm going to keep pushing. I already have the momentum. Now the price can follow through." And the RSI is pointing up. Price is pointing up. And we are managing intra candle today to potentially close the day with an RSI of 70. That is massive. Now, since this is bullish and I always cover both as always, that's never going to change in this channel. We need to see this and say what is the most bearish thing that can happen today. How can we end today in a way that is a massive disaster for the longs? And the answer is simple.

[00:08:59]Basically yesterday the RSI closed here.

[00:09:02]If today we reverse the price action, basically all this beautiful and shiny green candle that you have in here will end up turning into red. If we turn it into red, all of this body turns into a wick to the upside. So it can end up the day as a shooting star. It can end up in a bearish candle. That's possible.

[00:09:27]Whether it's likely or not, that's a different discussion. We will get there based on data. If we have any chance to close it like this candle for example where we at some point during this day we were in the green and we were in a breakout and the other half of the day we came back and we clos in the red and that initiated a rejection that took us into the lower range. So is it possible?

[00:09:52]Well, just by looking at this and not looking at anything outside of this, yeah, it's possible it will be a rejection of top of the range, it calls for a journey into the bottom of the range, which is currently around the $70,000.

[00:10:06]The most bearish thing that can happen today is rejection of that, of course, with a red candle that actually now loses $78 and $100. Why is that? Because by doing so, you drag the liquidity hunt in the terror horror area, right? So, you turn all of this instead of being a breakout, you turn it now into a breakdown, which then tests support and builds a channel to the downside. That, my friends, will turn my short with an average of 76.5 into a very, very happy ending. What conviction I have now today that this is the way we are going to end the week. I have low conviction. I am starting to see the opposite of conviction. I'm starting to see signs that there's still some damage to do to the upside. And I started seeing those signs in this area.

[00:11:04]This is where we started putting bullish videos. This is where we started saying, "Yeah, I do have a short position, but I'm going to delay my additional orders for where we are in this area." And what have we been doing so far? I did not take any additional shorts in here. Not a single one. Instead of that, I waited patiently and patiently, not doing anything. When we reach 80K, 81, we started resuming to add orders. That is the full plan. Now, knowing that there is a chance that we get potentially into 82 RSI, which brings in the $91,000, am I going all in? Am I fully allocated in my short? No. No. No. No. I have less than 20% allocation that I assigned for this full trade short on Bitcoin. So let's say if I wanted to trade with a 100,000 short currently I'm allocated around 17,000. So I have spare $74,000 at the moment still available for this trade. And I'm just giving you a random number, right? I'm never going to tell you how much I use per trade, but I can tell you I have it across multiple assets because on my channel, Crystal Gains, I continue day by day to take new trades on different assets, decoupled from each other, maximizing the best performance overall as a whole, as a portfolio of trades. I'm not a Bitcoin maxi trader and I never been, just so you know. So yeah, we have this big pile of bearish things including the fact that we are still in a bare market, right? And we have for example the ABCD pattern that looks the same as the previous bull flag. But there is a small ongoing incremental pile of bullish things that we need to be dealing with.

[00:13:07]the MACD bull cross diversion, the RSI breaking out from this orange line from the last time we were at the top of the range on the RSI that now has broken out in here. What is this doing? And it's heading or at least it promises to head into 82, which will be the wave fifth within this declining area of RSIs that starts from January 2023. So, it's a long period that the RSI is absolutely allowed to go into 82. So, if you watch the channel every day and you pay a lot of attention to what I'm saying, you're going to notice some inconsistency, which is absolutely acknowledged, and we cover it in the live stream with my community this morning. I've been saying that the 82 on the daily RSI is a nogo area for a bare market. And that my friends is wrong. Okay, that is wrong information and it's a confusion I had with the behavior that you are allowed to do on the weekly RSI. On the weekly RSI, once you are in a bare market, you remain in a channel down. You are allowed to touch the top of this internal channel pointing down. Okay?

[00:14:31]Like for example going into an RSI of 55 is allowed to go into 48 to go into 42.

[00:14:38]Once you break out the channel once you are outside the channel you are in a bull market. So basically exiting from 60 and to 84 which is top of the range on the weekly is not allowed. Whereas on the daily it is allowed to go into 82.

[00:14:55]It is. And I'm going to show you that just in the previous cycle when we were coming down also in a channel on the daily, we hammered that level multiple times starting from the day where Bitcoin reached $40,000 from for the first time. At that point, the RSI was 89. It started decreasing, decreasing, and eventually it broke out in this area in here. That's not the bottom of the bare market. That's the day before the FDX collapse that crashed the RSI into here. And here is where we start the bull market. So, we are not allowed to exit this area, but we are allowed to go to the top of the range during the full bare market. And our top of the range is 82 and that's $91,000.

[00:15:41]That's fully fully in line with what I explained in detail in my video yesterday. If you haven't watched my video yesterday, you are doing a huge harm to yourself. I explain fully in detail how volume profiles work throughout a bare market and how you can use it, how you can use them as wild cards of support into the early bull market. They are like literally fantastic tools that you cannot afford not to use. I got so many questions of people in yesterday video. I got so excited. I never knew that someone was also going to appreciate this level of intense nerdiness geekness. In order to find precisely the volume profile I'm using, you go to your tool set on trading view and you hit in this area in here is I think the third or fourth icon from top to bottom and you head into volumebased. That's where you're going to find the fixed range volume profile, which after you click, you just pick a starting point and an ending point and you get a volume profile with fixed range. That's it. I don't change any settings. It's absolutely in line that $91,000 is still within the range of a bare market. As I explained, we are allowed on the daily to go to 82, but on the weekly, we are not allowed to exit this bubble in here. For example, now we are going vertical into 6061 RSI resistance on the weekly. Can we touch it? Yeah, during the way down you can get very close. Sometimes you fail to touch it. What you never do is exit this line in here. That is reserved on the weekly time frame for bull market. On the daily you can get as high as this on the daily only, not on the weekly. And that's fantastic to know because it gives you a range to play with things that have never been broken. Give you an rough idea of what to expect. Do not marry the number. Okay? Do not put all your eggs in the same basket in case in case a model breaks because models all models are destined to be broken. And you wonder then why do they offer value?

[00:18:02]because most of the time they still play out in trading. You never have absolute certainty. There's no such a thing. You only have these gems that they give you huge certainty but not absolute, not final, right? So a big amount of milestones we are achieving, right? We are potentially today exiting the bare flag from the top with a candle confirming that with the RSI already have confirmed that there's a good chance that we do it and this brings an additional 9K upside potential an additional 11% that is currently on the table while still being in a bare market. If we were to flip into a bull market that's a completely different story. You can see that intracandle my count of days without an RSI 70 has just collapsed back because it reset the count on the precise candle where we are. We are on an RSI above 70 so far today. If we get a rejection and by the end of the day there is a carnage. Of course, this RSI is going to come back down and my triangle will go back to increment one further level up because it's counting the days. This interestingly took 110 days to complete to get back to an RSI of 70. Last time was at $98,000 and it took less time.

[00:19:32]And I'm also interested to know how long it took this range to get an RSI of 70.

[00:19:38]And you will be pleasantly surprised because the world is just so upside down. It's crazy. Like we've been trading in this megaphone pattern for about 9 months. It literally took double the time 220 days to reach an RSI of 70 in the megaphone pattern whereas 110 in the bare market. I mean that goes completely against what I will expect. I will say in the bull market we were in a bull flag and it literally took 100 days to exit that because it was so bullish the bull market that we exit straight away to the upside. Whereas in the bare market we spend a lot of time in the bare flag and then we collapse to the downside. But we are seeing things upside down and I think it's worth noting because it might be an indication as well that we are all wrong and we are about to enter a bull market. Let me know how you want to interpret that thing. It's crazy that the same trading range in here resolves to the upside as well so quickly or you think that's something bearish. I I mean let me know what you think. We have achieved another milestone in the month of April when we hit 74. We read the model of CPR and we say in a month where you hit 74 the first resistance as long as we don't go into the first support which was 63 we have expectations on May going into the first resistance and at that point I was like okay let's put the CPR of the month of May and let's see where that level is and it was around $82,000 and I was like really in May sell and go away. We have a forecast coming from CPR model saying that we are going to reach $82,000.

[00:21:29]Well, here we are, my friends. We are reaching $82,000. And it's absolutely truth that I've been building a short all this period. And I continue to be bearish on the market. But there is bearish and there is bearish, right?

[00:21:45]There is the bearish guy that entered around here and that is already liquidated. And there is the bearish guy that acknowledges that there is upside potential into 80s or even 90s and adapts its own strategy to make sure that once we go down we go down with a properly built scaled up short position.

[00:22:09]Right? Let's go into the order book and let's have a quick look. Well, before that let's see the monthly. This is against the resistance of 82500.

[00:22:19]Another milestone. We just hit the previous support before the last leg up.

[00:22:25]We are trading around two to threek above the short-term holder realized price. Reminder that that gives the opportunity to short-term holders to start unloading. And on the daily open interest is just going nuts in this area in here. You don't see so many open interest signals of sell aggregated all together in the same range still going up. It only happens during massive breakouts. So we need to be on the lookout for what happens in here right after this because definitely this amount of open interest has two resolutions. a massive breakout to the upside or a full bull trap that collapses miserably to the downside. CVD is also at the peak not just on the 1 hour and the 4 hour. I want you to understand the magnitude of this on the daily. Open interest in the last few days has increased in across all the exchanges aggregated $4.6 billion in one leg up in the bare market. We have not seen that level of increase in a single leg up. For example, this was 3.4. That was the maximum in the previous bare flag. Now we are seeing 4.6. In the peak in the alltime high, we put 7.8 billion in the last leg up and that was the maximum because this one in here I think is a single week that we increased almost 7 billion but this was almost 8 billion. Double what we are doing now.

[00:24:01]But what we are doing now is more than what we did in here and it's entering the previous range. So things are starting to get very heated to the upside. I still don't see anything final, anything breaking in a massive way to the downside to say okay that was it. We are going to stop right here or we got an incremental chance that we're going to stop here. I don't see any of that yet. We have tons of things that can attract the price to the downside.

[00:24:32]Tons of things, but none of those things are still doing the the job. We have 7,000 700,000 of delta that is incredibly attractive to the downside. We have almost $2.5 billion in open interest sitting right underneath our feet from where the price is into my average, which is now 76.5. carefully chosen sizes to target areas where I can get out. In here, you have $1.68 billion of open interest at 76.7 followed by another $800 million in open interest at 74.5.

[00:25:15]If price came back to hunt those levels of open interest, I'm in profit. If we go into this 89500 which is 1.74 which I keep repeating that number so long this month hesitating to believe that we can get there but now since we are so close to that it almost feels like price really wants to chase that huge vast amount of open interest 7 + 861 is almost $3 billion of open interest that enter in here versus three billion in here. So, I don't know. Maybe we go for this 3 billion and then we come back for this other 2.8 billion in here. That's anyone's guess really. Remember, this channel does not do forecast. I am not here to read crystal balls. I do not have crystal balls. I am here to profit from volatility and I try. I aim to do it in the most elegant way. No one knows what's going to happen ever. All we can hope for is to be able to read the probabilities the best we can. And if you've been watching actually the videos because most of the haters have no clue what we are talking about in the channel. It's sad but they really don't get it. They really don't understand what we are talking about and they are angry. Being angry is synonym to full ignorance. Right? So they don't understand what we are talking about.

[00:26:44]They don't understand what is the strategy. They do what they can do which is just to look at the thumbnails and live the Tik Tok life. You know what else do we have? We have a lower low in terms of longs. Longs are now at 33 but they managed to reach 32.8.

[00:27:03]That is almost as low as the number of longs that we have in this area in here.

[00:27:09]This is July 2025th. In July in 2025 with very little number of longs we peak in this area and we started correcting a little bit. When the longs came back we put an alltime high. That move was from a price of roughly 123 back down into 107. So around at 13% down we could say at the alltime high longs were at 36.

[00:27:38]So, there were more longs at the all-time high that what we have in here.

[00:27:44]Just so you know, I track the number of longs. And when they are very little, I expect to put a local top. The lowest it's been ever is 29. So, from 328 to 29, there's roughly 3 to four points to reach not an all-time low, but the lowest it's been in this whole cycle.

[00:28:06]pretty much funding rates still deeply in the negative and that is one of the other reasons that we are calling for additional upside. The selling wall in here is massive. It's massive. But so far has not helped to contain the price in any way. And in the beginning of the video I told you the selling wall in here on fire charts was around $130 million. that did the trick at 98 to contain the price. It definitely created a psychological effect. Price never reached those levels. But with $130 million in selling in ask located at 100K created an illusion that at 98k started puking. What do we have in here? We barely have 42 + 28. And I'm being fair.

[00:28:59]I'm counting two levels in a row, not three. But let's stretch it. Even if we count three levels, 33, 28, 42, we don't get to 100, which is obviously less than 130. Guys, let me be crystal clear. In this situation, we have just unlocked the potential to move anywhere between 81 and $90,000. If we close today's candle in the green above the bare flag, that's going to attract a heck of a lot of longs, our best chance at the moment is to attract a lot of retail that can revert the picture that we currently have. The picture is pretty much liquidity to the upside is fantastic. So far longs have not done that yet on the lower end in here unless we really look very low like 54, 60 or 48. Those levels can definitely compete with number three. But number three is just so close to the price that it feels naive to now give your back to those levels. And to continue on this speech of full honesty, the bearish signs still overweight the bullish signs. But we continue on this trajectory where little by little, one by one, we are adding every day one more sign that outweights this huge pile of bearish signals. Is that going to continue? For how long? Is this still going to remain our counter trend rally?

[00:30:38]My basec case scenario remains. Yes, it's a counter trade and I have very clear lines in the sand for stating that's no longer the case. When you do TA in analysis, all you can do is to look what you have in front of you. You cannot do TA of price action that has not yet happened just to start with that, right? Think about all the other data I look into. Everything can fully change. But with the full analysis of what's right now in front of me is a counter trend relief rally dead cut bounce. If we cross 93,000 that is a very strong argument against my base case scenario where we have to say all right we have a complete shift.

[00:31:27]We have the shittiest bare market ever in the history of Bitcoin. Let's go back to the drawing board and let's see how we manage, how we hedge, how we get out of that still in profit. If you're looking for an exchange to trade, if you are sick and tired of your own exchange, or you want to pay less trading fees, consider opening a new account on Tubbit, just two minutes to deposit your USDT and start trading without KYC. You get access to leverage and everything.

[00:31:56]And even before you deposit, they give you $50 as long as you use my link. Now, if you deposit your own cash, you can get up to 30,000 in rewards. This was built by the same people from Bybit. So, it's really familiar and easy to use interface. Have a look at it. It also contains general assets. So, it's fantastic in terms of overall value. It helps the channel. So, thanks so much for that. 700 likes in this video.

[00:32:22]Remember, that gives you access to the elite. Remember to leave a comment down below so you can claim it. And if we get to those 700 likes, I'm also going to run a 50% one full week sale on my Patreon. Everything discounted. Thanks so much for watching. I'll see you on the next one. Bye-bye.