Gas prices heading into summer driving season

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]discussion about gas prices, a discussion we've been having now for most of our lives, but certainly ramped up in the last couple of months here, top of mind. Now, gas prices continue to kind of go up and down now.

[00:00:11]They've come down about 13 cents in the past week, and according to GasBuddy, the latest numbers they have, the national average down, uh, let's see, the national average at $4.45 a gallon, so falling by 6.6 cents, and this is in a survey of 150,000 gas stations across the country. Let's bring in Patrick DeHaan right now, who is the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

[00:00:41]Uh, good to see you and talk to you again. I know it's been a constantly busy time for you guys trying to track, um, what seems to be sort of constant fluctuations.

[00:00:52]Well, constant fluctuations, constant evolutions in the situation, new attacks, new negotiations back and forth. So, as you mentioned, it's been a lot of, uh, movement. Um, probably the most volatile time I've seen in 20 plus years of looking at market prices. So, um, it's obviously a volatile situation as we navigate if there's going to be a deal or if there's going to be new attacks. And by the way, this is why oil prices and what we're paying at the pump is volatile because the nature, um, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital waterway when it comes to oil. So, if there's the potential that it's reopened, oil prices plummet on getting excited.

[00:01:29]If the prospect is more attacks than the strait remaining closed longer, oil spikes, and then you and I pay more, but it's all essentially supply and demand driven. Yeah, and it seems like it takes just even the little, uh, the slightest amount of information to impact those global oil markets. Uh, we saw the little bit of drifting lower when we, you know, heard news over the weekend that, uh, negotiations with Iran were getting towards the end. And then we heard from uh, US military and Central Command that there were some strikes on missile sites and boats in the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, you both of those kind of were part of that seesaw we've seen in the last couple days, right?

[00:02:10]Yeah, exactly. Now, there still seems to be a lot of interest, right? There's still a lot of talk from both the Iran regime and the US administration that talks are still happening. And I think that's why the markets are seeing a little bit past these new attacks.

[00:02:27]But that could change. I think for now, the market is trying to digest the here and now, which to your point is new attacks. That's why the price of Brent crude oil is up. I don't want to get into the the weeds here, but Brent crude oil is higher because the immediate risk impacts the price of Brent more rapidly because that contract is for delivery sooner. But if you looked at oil markets today, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down, which is telling you the market thinks that in the next 2 to 3 weeks there's going to be a potential deal on the table.

[00:02:58]At the end of the day, it's the price of WTI being down that is going to push our gas prices down a little bit more this week.

[00:03:05]So, keep on it. But for now, as you mentioned, the price of gasoline in the Twin Cities, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, down about 14 cents. The average about $4.32 a gallon. We could go a little bit lower into this week. How long and or whether or not we see an abrupt shift is something that I can't necessarily see um right now. Looks like falling prices for the next couple of days, but that could change as the headlines do. Yeah, it changes very quickly. And it's really kind of hard to to know, too, um how long it may take, even with more significant news, how long might that take for the influence to bring the gas prices down to what they were a couple of months ago. I mean, do you see, even if there's some abrupt news, a slow fall?

[00:03:51]Well, I mean, we've been slowly falling now. That could be extended if there's more good news with less bad news, right? It's kind of an offset of how much good and bad news there is in the marketplace. And as long as there's a little bit more optimism and good news, prices may still inch lower. To your point, prices have been falling. If the strait reopens, they'll continue to fall. But the last part of your question, when do they get back to pre-war level? That's way down the road.

[00:04:15]That might be in 2027. So, you know, if the strait does reopen tomorrow, if ships start sailing through it immediately, and by next week everything is more back to normal in the strait, well, prices could continue to fall for a long period of time. But it probably will take into 2027 for us to see those sub-three-dollar or mid-two-dollar prices that seem like a long way in distant memory, but it'll take a while to get those low prices back because the global inventories of oil need to recover. And at this point, it's like filling an Olympic-size swimming pool with a garden hose. Oh.

[00:04:50]That's a good analogy. I know in economics, the rule of thumb, too, is that prices will go up like a rocket and come down like a feather. You mean that's kind of the general rule of thumb. One last thing is uh you had put in your blog that the states with the lowest average prices were Indiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma. Any particular reason for where you're seeing the lowest prices?

[00:05:11]I mean, right now, a lot of the lowest price states have issued gas tax suspensions. Indiana's a good example of that. If you can see the map behind me, you'll see that Indiana, right next to a lot of other uh more colorful states, uh Illinois is red, Michigan is orange, Ohio's orange, because Hoosiers right now, through the gas tax suspensions of two taxes, are saving roughly 65 cents a gallon. And the state is also foregoing the $5 a day. So, Indiana, the nation's cheapest state, it's a rarity, almost never see it, because normally there's tax on gasoline there. Also, Georgia, one of the lowest price states because they also have a gas tax suspension. Uh but most of the time areas of the Gulf uh are the cheapest because of low taxes and proximity to oil and refineries. All right. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. Um I'm sure we'll talk to you a lot more in the coming uh weeks and months. Appreciate your time as always. Thanks for having me.

[00:06:09]All right. Appreciate it.