US & Iran Exchange Military Strikes - Is the Ceasefire DOA? | Daily Market Update, May 28 2026

本站添加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Good morning traders. Matt Weller here, Global  Head of Research with Forex.com. Today is Thursday the 28th of May 2026 and the one key  question on traders minds today is whether the US Iran ceasefire is holding in there, whether  it's starting to fray or whether it's outright breaking. In today's video, I'll cover the latest  developments as well as everything else that you need to know ahead of today's US session. Let's  get into it. So, there are conflicting reports from both sides, but it's clear that we've seen a  reescalation in tensions between Iran and the US.

[00:00:38]Uh, Iran claims that it fired some warning shots  at a US tanker that was trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz with a radar off. The US claims it shot  down those warning shots uh and then proceeded to retaliate with strikes against the Bandar Abbas  airport military airport near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran which prompted Iran then to strike at a US  air base in Kuwait. Uh it's it's unclear exactly to who struck first or or exactly what extent  we saw retaliation versus initial strikes, but the big takeaway here is that this is a dramatic  reescalation. Arguably the biggest escalation in military activity that we've seen since the  ceasefire started. And again, it underscores that we're a far way from even a memorandum of  understanding toward a path toward getting a nuclear deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.  We'll see if the headlines change, but clearly traders are uh sort of selling first and asking  questions later when it comes to risk assets like major US indices and indeed gold, one we covered  earlier this week, which is falling a further 1.5%. Meanwhile, oil, the most important market  to be watching in this environment, is rising about 3% to erase most of the earlier week losses.  We've also had some more traditional economic data out of the US. The US core PCE report, the Fed's  preferred measure of inflation, came in about in line with expectations, still well above the Fed's  target, running at 3.3% year-over-year. And the other side of the Fed's mandate, we saw initial  jobless claims, which came in at 215,000 versus 211,000 expected. Not too concerning there,  basically inline US economic data that will keep the Fed in a neutral to hawkish positioning  as long as the conflict in Iran remains at least simmering at the level that it is now. Today's  chart of the day is the US dollar index. Here we can see the dollar index on a 4-hour chart has  been within a broader range uh going back the last month month and a half here. Meanwhile we  formed a smaller tighter range so far this week between about 99 and 99.50. We were pressing up  against the top of that range uh as these military strikes took place. The US dollar caught a bit of  a safe haven bid but was unable to break above key resistance there at 99.50. Now we'll see uh how  these strikes are characterized and whether it represents the ceasefire breaking or whether it's  still holding intact. That will be the big driver for the US dollar. I'll also note that we're  coming into the end of the month. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month and we're likely to  see a little bit of US dollar selling as major uh investment houses rebalance their books. So that's  another factor to consider here. But as long as it remains range bound, there's not a clear trend and  it's not one that uh trend-based traders should be focusing on. However, if we do break beyond this  range, that could provide an early signal of the next move that we could see in the dollar index.  A break above 99.50 would quickly target 100.

[00:03:48]Meanwhile, a break below that level would increase  the odds of a pullback toward the 200 period moving average, which is also where the 200 day  moving average is closer to 98.50. So, those are the levels to watch as we move into the weekend  and of course into next week. That is today's video. Thank you for carving a couple minutes  out of your day to watch. If I could ask just one quick favor before you go, please do drop a like  on this video. It's a great way to uh show your support. It'll get more eyeballs on the video.  And if you're not already, please do subscribe to our YouTube channel at Forex.com. Thanks  again and best of luck with your trading today.