"Ethereum Just Did the Impossible & Nobody Is Talking About It" - Jordi Visser

[00:00:00]Ethereum's had the big move. Um it's up as of yesterday's close or let's say since it doesn't close as of yesterday's equity close uh it was up close to 20% monthto date. Um and just so people understand that would be if we finish the month with 20% the largest month or the best month since August of last year. Um Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin. It's been the largest on a cross verse Bitcoin since then. The reason I care so much about Ethereum is because I do believe if AI agents are coming, if tokenization is coming, if all these things are happening, this is an energy with inside the revenue side of crypto. While much of the crypto world remains fixated on Bitcoin's next move, a bigger story is developing with the world's second largest cryptocurrency. Ethereum has quietly posted one of its strongest monthly performances in nearly a year, outperforming Bitcoin in a cycle where Bitcoin has dominated almost everything in sight. No true altcoin season ever materialized. Capital stayed concentrated. Narratives came and went.

[00:01:02]Yet suddenly, Ethereum is waking up. And according to macro analyst Jordi Visser, that may not be an accident. Visser believes this isn't just another rotation trade. In his view, we're watching the early stages of a convergence between artificial intelligence, tokenization, and digital assets that could redefine markets over the next decade. And before we get there, we need to understand the macro backdrop making all of this possible.

[00:01:28]From collapsing inflation fears to shifting Federal Reserve expectations and a monetary regime that may already be changing in real time. Today's discussion begins with Vesser's analysis of the macro environment, why he believes the market is misreading inflation and the Fed's next move, and why that could become a major tailwind for risk assets. Then we'll move into the most important part of the conversation. Why Ethereum's sudden strength could signal the beginning of something much bigger for crypto. Make sure you watch until the end because the final implications of this thesis could completely change how investors position themselves over the next few years. And if you enjoy this type of macro and crypto analysis, don't forget to like the video, subscribe, leave a comment below, and turn on post notifications so you never miss an update. Thanks and enjoy the video.

[00:02:19]>> Well, I I think the most important part um you know what you and I talked about the last couple weeks and I said probably about 3 weeks ago that one of the biggest surprises to me with this whole thing in the straight of horn moves is how people could literally be this wrong on something they had studied for I don't know 20 30 years. If this ever got shot down and we took down 20% of this, what would happen? And the fact that not only did crude oil trade down, and obviously we're trading back up now with rekindling and bombing and everything, but the second you stop bombing, we have the next ceasefire, what's going to happen to crude? I can't imagine it doesn't go straight back down. I mean, I I don't fall for the trap uh again, especially when inflation swaps this week actually went down. So 2-year inflation swaps as of yesterday were actually lower than where we started the week. So we're at the lows.

[00:03:13]So I think when you go through the inflation data, number one, there's just no way to read it unless this month was a fluke on the core services side.

[00:03:24]Every single inflation data but one PCE core is the only one that's pointing upward. everything else, whether it's median, uh, inflation, uh, trimmed mean, whether it's the CPI core, whether it's sticky inflation, or whether it's true inflation, they've all come down while the PC core is at the highs of the year.

[00:03:46]And so, I'm leaning towards the fact that the inflation side is a non-story for the rest of the year. Now, that being said, with the change in inflation, we reduced the Fed rate hike significantly. And I've talked about how I think this is a very big positive for the debasement trade, a very big positive for crypto. We haven't seen it play out yet. We've seen Bitcoin act much better during a momentum unwind, which is not normal. But what Worsh said, again, he's reiterated, he basically the headline for me is this is not a hawkish dovish thing. This is a reform thing. He is fixated on a point that you, you know, brought up at the beginning of the year repeatedly, which is we can't trust any data from the government. He believes that the Fed has been very backward-looking, which I know I agree with. I think looking at anything at a time of AI, you know, 6 months later when the data gets revised for, you know, a long time, how can that be the types of things that you make decisions on? So I think his message to everyone there is we're in a completely different time and I think that aligns with AI. He has talked about the fact that AI is very disruptive. He's a big believer in AI. He's also a big believer in digital assets and I don't think people should forget that. So I think monetary policy the old traditional way is gone. And the most important thing for people is we've now taken the July rate hike to a 10% chance. So, if you believe what the um where the expectations are, which is one rate hike before the end of the year, you're kind of saying he's going to raise rates before the midterm elections. And if he was going to do it, I think July would be the time. I don't see him doing it in September, October. So, I've thought a lot about this and and here here's my uh here's my take. If something bad happens to you, you know, you have a ski accident, you hurt your knee, you get into a car accident, for the next five years, that thing is pretty front and center in your brain. I believe what's happened is we can all remember what things cost before co like it's in our head. We remember what the car we bought cost. So every day someone has to just make a decision because cars have a some type of lifespan. You're like, you know what? I'm going to go buy I'm I'm going to trade this one and go buy a new car.

[00:06:02]And I mean, I've run into this recently where I went to go see because I have a Model S that I bought in 2021. Well, they're they're stopping the Model S.

[00:06:11]I'm actually using the full self-driving now on my car and it's an old version. I want the newest version. The car the cost is up significantly from when I bought in 2021. So, my brain remembers what I paid on something. And I think this is one of the things with you with with us with co never does inflation go up that much in that short amount of time. Not in all of our lifetime. So normally when inflation goes higher it's this gradual process. When it happened in the 70s it was driven by oil prices.

[00:06:41]And so oil went up, oil went down. This one wasn't that. This was here you go.

[00:06:45]Here's trillions of dollars. Everything went up in price. Every single thing went up in price. And so I think we all remember when eggs didn't cost $67 a carton. We all remember when XYZ didn't cost this. And I think it takes a long time for that to wear off. But I think when you add in the polarization and the fact that people need someone to blame for this and the fact that AI is standing in front of them where they don't feel like their job is ever safe the way it was, I really think I'm I'm getting to the point now. I agree with you because I grew up in a house where my grandmother told me about the Great Depression all the time about not having money for food, being thrown out of her house in in her teens to basically they couldn't afford. She had to go out and get a job. She had to go do something.

[00:07:26]Um, and just remembering what the Great Depression was. This is not a we have the unemployment rate at near all-time lows. You can borrow money from anything right now. So I I agree with you that I think this is more of a psychological inflation thing and I think it has a lot to do with just what has happened the last 5 years.

[00:07:43]>> Ver's macro thesis is surprisingly straightforward. The inflation scare may already be over. Despite geopolitical tensions, persistent fears around rising prices and endless speculation about another hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve. The underlying data continues to point in the opposite direction. In his view, markets are beginning to recognize that monetary policy is still operating on outdated assumptions while the economy itself is being reshaped by AI, automation, and unprecedented technological disruption. But if inflation is becoming a non-story and the odds of additional rate hikes continue to fall, investors are left with a much bigger question. Where does the next wave of capital go? For Visser, the answer isn't found in traditional sectors. It's found at the intersection of crypto and artificial intelligence.

[00:08:34]And that brings us to Ethereum's remarkable resurgence. Bitcoin has been the undisputed king of this cycle.

[00:08:40]Institutions chose Bitcoin. ETFs chose Bitcoin. Corporate treasuries chose Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Ethereum spent much of the cycle underperforming expectations as investors repeatedly asked the same question. Has Ethereum permanently lost its narrative? Jordi Visser thinks that question may soon look as outdated as asking whether the internet would ever matter. Because if AI agents begin transacting autonomously, if tokenized assets move onto blockchains, and if the digital economy becomes programmable, then Ethereum's role in that future suddenly becomes impossible to ignore.

[00:09:17]>> Seems like Bitcoin had a pretty strong bid this week. Um, what was your read on that?

[00:09:22]>> Yeah, I'm actually going to take it a different direction. I I don't I mean I know Bitcoin is is is more of your focal point. Um Ethereum's had the big move.

[00:09:31]Um it's up as of yesterday's close or let's say since it doesn't close as of yesterday's equity close uh it was up close to 20% monthto date. Um and just so people understand that would be if we finish the month with 20% the largest month or the best month since August of last year. Um Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin. It's been the largest on a cross verse Bitcoin since then. The reason I care so much about Ethereum is because I do believe if AI agents are coming, if tokenization is coming, if all these things are happening, this is an energy with inside the revenue side of crypto. And we there's there's no there's no way to get around what's happening volume-wise. I think the Stripe bid for PayPal was a big deal, too. I have my crypto 40name equal weight basket similar to my AI thematic one meant to deal with the agentic world and PayPal was one of the names in it and so number one I was happy I've done my homework and figured out which public companies cuz there's six of them that are in there including Robin Hood how they all fit in with this crossover with the AI agents but I think Bitcoin is just hanging in there very well on a relative basis it's obviously done well versus um AI, but the AI thematic side or the the factor side, the V's up towards 100. Bitcoin V is still at 30.

[00:10:54]So if you're putting an asset in a portfolio right now, you can have three times as much uh Bitcoin on a V adjusted basis as you can AI. And that means that we're at a point where I think you should start seeing more and more people as they get more focused on Ethereum uh get in. Once we get above the 200 day moving average, I believe we're at the start of something new until we are above there. I'm trading it actively.

[00:11:18]I'm trying to make sure that if a bottom is made here. It's there. I even put little started to buy a little bit of uh Micron this week in some of the semis.

[00:11:27]Uh Micron I have a position. Again, it's very small relative to what it was back then. and I'm buying it at higher prices than where I ended up selling it on average. But that's because the new news that has come out over the course of the last six weeks and the consolidation and the the deleveraging that's happened. Uh I feel more confident in terms of putting a little bit little bit of money in there, but I'm such still much more heavily weighted towards crypto.

[00:11:52]>> When you think of the crypto allocation, is it just Bitcoin and Ethereum?

[00:11:56]>> For me at this point, it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, and and Micro Strategy. So, I'm not um I I'm I I don't think for I'm sure this will change as I spend more time in the space. I've never been a big stock person as a macro person. It's been thematic. So, even though Micron is in the portfolio, if you ask me why, it's because of AI. Everything I have in the portfolio to me is either an AI trade or it's a crypto trade. And so, that's it. I I really Eli Liy, it's an AI trade. um silver it's an AI trade like anything I have in the portfolio is related to the stuff that I write about and I talk about I believe we are at the convergence between AI and crypto and that all public companies will be disrupted the same way Adobe and Salesforce have been same way the hyperscalers had they're they just rallied off the bottom that's why the S&P's hanging around the all-time highs while AI trades lower but over the last nine months they haven't done anything so again when you go through things. I'm just more focused on the AI infrastructure trade. Once the agentic side starts to accelerate, once AGI gets here, I believe the ROIC is headed towards private companies. I believe small private businesses are going to be the winners of this. The enterprises will find a way to reduce their expenses over the next 2 years. We are seeing that happen inside the public companies.

[00:13:18]If you haven't seen it so far, about 40 of the S&P 500 companies have reported so far. And just like happened in Q1, the surprise ratio right now, we're we're outperforming earnings. It's been 16% in terms of the beat. Um, so we're again headed towards another big big big month uh big big quarter for earnings and a lot of these have happened in the banks and in insurance companies. The most important takeaway from Jordi Vesser's analysis isn't that Ethereum had a good month or that the Fed may avoid raising rates this year. Those are headlines. The real story is what sits underneath them. Vesser is describing a world in transition. A world where monetary policy is becoming less predictable. Where AI is disrupting entire industries faster than governments can measure it. and where digital assets are evolving from speculative instruments into critical infrastructure. If he's right, then we're not approaching another crypto cycle. We're approaching the beginning of a new financial architecture.

[00:14:22]Think about the implications. AI agents will need to transact. Tokenized assets will need settlement layers. Digital identities will need verification.

[00:14:33]Entire industries may require decentralized networks operating 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The question investors should be asking isn't whether these trends arrive tomorrow or 5 years from now. The question is whether they want exposure before the rest of the market fully understands what's happening. History has a habit of rewarding preparation. The people who recognized the internet in the 1990s, smartphones in the 2000s, and cloud computing in the 2010s were all told they were early until suddenly they weren't. Today, investors are being presented with another possibility that Bitcoin becomes digital collateral, Ethereum becomes the operating system of tokenized finance, and AI becomes the engine powering it all. And that's why the next few years may matter more than most people realize. Because if this convergence between AI and crypto unfolds the way Visser expects, the winners won't be the people who reacted after the headlines. They'll be the people who prepared while everyone else was still debating whether any of this was real. Markets change gradually and then all at once. The opportunity to position yourself before that happens may not remain open forever. If you enjoyed today's analysis, make sure to leave a like, subscribe to the channel, and share this video with someone who needs to hear it. Thank you all for watching, and as always, we'll see you in the next video.