Elon Musk and Ashok Break News on Robotaxi. But there's More

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-31

[00:00:01]We have lots of very hot FSD and robo taxi news this morning and we will lead off with that in a second. What is going to happen to Tesla and SpaceX stocks over the next 90 days? I have an analysis.

[00:00:18]What about the economic news today? Man, it's really, really bullish. And we'll get to that in a few minutes. All right.

[00:00:25]Uh, and if in case you haven't noticed, Tesla stock this morning had quite a selloff according to Grock. Looks like profit taking, but has bounced back and we'll see where it is at the end of the show. Elon Musk says this morning that uh, Cyber Cab is seen driving itself out of the Giga Texas factory and that is followed up by Alice Swami saying, "Hey, soon it'll be driving itself to Austin City reporting for duty." So there you go. Apparently that would suggest we're getting closer and closer to actual cyber cabs out there. Um and then Yuna Sai says this um uh four cyber cabs are driving through the streets of Austin.

[00:01:10]How the future will look very soon. So that would be huge. That would be a very big step. Everybody's been kind of waiting for the actual cyber cabs to hit the streets. Um not sure how much of an impact all this will have on the stock, but again we'll look at that in a few minutes. And then Estonia was added to the approved list for FSD in Europe. Um uh there that's three countries now and several others are still in the process.

[00:01:37]So we'll see how soon all of that takes place. Now, I'm going to review and reflect on the coming months for Tesla Tesla and SpaceX as the IPO comes and the aftermath of that IPO happens. Now, we've had conversations back and forth for the last two weeks with all of, you know, the Larry Goldbergs and the Knicks and the and the Bradfords and the CERNs and everybody's been, you know, we've been going back and forth with our ideas. And I I I wanted to kind of summarize those ideas. This is a period that's likely to have uh massive beats for Tesla in terms of vehicles sold and energies deployed and profits. Um and that's going to impact all of this as well. Obviously robo taxi, what's going to happen over the next 60 to 90 days in terms of robo taxi could be very significant. So, so far we have not seen any evidence of a rotation out of Tesla to create the funds for an IPO.

[00:02:38]Regardless of continuous headlines saying, "Oh, it's going to hurt Tesla.

[00:02:44]Merger will hurt Tesla. IPO will hurt Tesla." Well, so far we haven't seen any evidence. 000 that anybody's selling their Tesla stock in order to buy the IPO. Now there's two weeks two weeks from today is when people are saying that the IPO will take place. So maybe we're still going to see that, but so far nothing. Alternatively, since there's no apparent cuto off date for ownership in terms of what the Robin Hoods and Morgan Stanley's of the world will allow you to do in terms of purchasing the IPO, um, people could still be actually buying more and more Teslas so that they have a larger optionality to buy the IPO price. Not sure that, not clear, just speculation, 100% on my part. But we could see that there could be some movement in that direction. Now on the day of the IPO, I believe that SpaceX is likely to move sharply upward. Reason I believe that is because it's massively massively oversold. There is way more people that want the IPO price than there are available shares. Um and unless that changes in the next two weeks and you know the news will be reporting on that I think very very carefully. um then the real value of the stock uh won't be determined until maybe days or weeks after the IPO date. Uh the real value now this is a key key key issue. This is like Tesla. The total well not the total but the primary um value of the stock is all in the narrative not in the current numbers and that's not like normal IPOs.

[00:04:28]Normally, you've got some really solid numbers to go off of, but we don't have solid numbers to go off of. Brian Wong and I have brought you some numbers over the last few days in terms of what we see and what he sees, and I'm agreeing with them is terms of projected revenues and projected income over the next three years. But I mean, it's really even more speculative than the Tesla information uh until we actually see a couple of quarters and see how things are developing. So, it's all narrative. So, we don't know how the public is going to take a look at that narrative. And we don't know how long it'll take to get to equilibrium in terms of the buyers and the sellers. Um, and there's people that are going to be coming in just for the FOMO, just for the excitement, just uh to be part of this uh historic day. Um, so we could end up at two trillion or more on day one or day seven or day 30 or we could be a lot less, a lot. And I'm going to be looking for those dips.

[00:05:24]That's what I'm going to be doing. I'm going to be seeing if maybe we get a nice dip at some point at least. That doesn't mean overall 30 days from now it could be massively up, but 10 days from now it could have a little dip even under the IPO offering. So, there's going to be a lot of volatility in my opinion. Um because why why is there going to be a lot of um uh a lot of volatility? Well, because there's going to be all these unlocks and there's going to be all of these uh uh different indices that are going to be opening up and allowing or and being required.

[00:06:02]They're going to list Tesla SpaceX on the index. And when that happens, then those who have funds uh and other kinds of vehicles that re that are based on the indices, they're going to have to buy by.

[00:06:17]So within a short period of time, um the excitement at the beginning could wash out and we could begin to see a pure play maybe. But what about Tesla? Well, same thing. We could begin to see a pure play in Tesla as well without all the noise on robo taxi. I am not currently uh there's going to we got some catalyst, but I'm not currently expecting a Roadster or an Optimus reveal in June or probably even July.

[00:06:48]Why is that? I think there's just too much else going on. I don't think Elon would do it in the midst of all this uh activity around SpaceX and around the earnings reports, etc. But I wouldn't be at all surprised. In fact, I wouldn't I would be surprised if we don't get both of those in August and or September.

[00:07:08]once the publicity around all of this uh comes comes down a bit. Meanwhile, everyone seems to agree that SpaceX stocks will will be very volatile as it's added, as I mentioned, to Russell, NASDAQ, and eventually the S&P, but the S&P won't be until 6 months from now.

[00:07:24]And in the meantime, there's going to be potential selling or trimming from those exiting their stocks a exiting a little bit or a lot or whatever of their position after their lockup period ends.

[00:07:38]Now, I broke the con this concept last week when I had Bradford on and we talked about it again last night. He believes it. Most I think all of my co-authors, co- uh um yeah, what are we calling them now? All of my interview suspects um all believe that this is true is that uh the Tesla stock could actually get a a pretty significant boost from folks who are selling off some of their SpaceX stock as these unlock period ends. That would be because these are individuals that might have a huge imbalance in their portfolio. We know of cases. We know Larry Goldberg is a great example of having a huge imbalance in his portfolio who is likely I think I haven't asked Larry, but he's I think likely to want to trim that down a bit.

[00:08:28]And where might he go with those shares?

[00:08:31]Well, they could go into Nvidia. It could go into a lot of different stocks that he's playing right now, but it might go into Tesla. And that's what I'm looking at. Some of that trim I think is going to end up in Tesla as people want to keep more a lot of their portfolio in Elonas based uh stocks. Finally, there's a good chance that FOMO will happen around the space SpaceX Tesla merger. Um and I think the earliest that this would become really really formal. The first time I think we're going to see any formal talks would be December 6. So could there be FOMO leading up to that announcement that maybe there is a formal uh idea the formal the beginning of the debates in real time? Um could there be FOMO even before that? Of course. But I think that of course if there is a statement by the leadership at either company and or both companies that yeah we're talking about merger um then the FOMO will begin. Overall, I continue to have my price target at $600 by the end of the year with 800 possible if we get 5,000 robo taxis out there in the fleet. And I think we can get to 900 and maybe even higher if the Optimus reveal is compelling. This is no change from my previous statements. Uh well, maybe the Optimus reveal I was counting for sure a thousand, but I might have backed off on that a little bit. 900 or more and maybe a thousand if the reveal is exciting. All right, the Mly Fool is out this morning says Tesla has not performed well this down well this year. The stock is down 1% as of this writing while the S&P has climbed 10. Although Tesla's first quarter results released on April 22 were pretty good on the surface, revenue jumped because revenue jumped 16% uh to 22.4 4 billion. Even amid the electrical vehicle industry losing ground in the US, investors are still concerned about Tesla's runaway spending. The company now projects capex of 25 billion, which in by anybody's imagination, that's a big number. All right. There's skepticism regarding whether Tesla can justify these investments, especially given how uh especially given that the stock trades at 28 times forward earnings, a multiple that assumes near perfect execution. Now, that's somebody's forward earnings. That's not my forward earnings. Um I don't know. I haven't figured out recently. Got to look at 2027 again, see where we think we're going to be, but I'm sure my forward earnings would be much higher than the streets. But what if Tesla does show that the spending is warranted? The company might do so by year end. And if it does, its share price could sore.

[00:11:14]Here's what investors should know. Will Optimus Gen 3 impress? Oh, who said that? Who keeps using the word will?

[00:11:20]Will will Optimus impress? They must be watching this show. Tesla commands such high valuation multiples because it's looking to tap into potentially transformative opportunities that can drive substantial long-term growth. The companies work with humanoid robots is one example. Tesla is probably the most important example. Uh Tesla is currently working on the third generation of that robot Optimus and CEO Musk now expects the reveal of that version to be closer to the start of manufacturing toward the end of July or August. Musk described Optimus as a general purpose robot that can learn how to farm a task by observing a demonstration, watching a video, or listening to instructions. It is nearly as capable. If it is nearly as capable as the company expects and can be manufactured relatively cheaply at scale, there could be a huge market for Optimus 3. Some corporations would likely replace part of their workforce with these robots. An option that might be more cost effective. It could also eventually make its way into the home office if it becomes affordable into the home if it becomes affordable enough.

[00:12:26]Once again, I'm gonna say there'll be almost zero Optimus robots in homes, probably before 2030. You know how optimistic I am. But I'm going be I'm telling you, the the corporations are going to buy these things in the billions before they come down in price.

[00:12:45]And yeah, there's going to be some very wealthy people that are going to they're going to buy these for their homes, but it's not going to be $30,000 anytime soon. Anyway, all this remains hypothetical for now. Once we see Optimus Gen 3 in action with our own eyes, that might cement Tesla's ability to actualize its ambitious goals, potentially sending the stock price soaring. That's why investors should pay close attention to updates regarding Optimus 3. And on this channel, you can be sure we're paying as close attention as we possibly can. And maybe anyway, at least two other developments could be critical for Tesla through the end of the year. First, the Texus the company's robo taxi services making some headway.

[00:13:24]Did I tell you this is mly fool? Tesla's recently expanding it to new cities, notably Dallas and Houston. This service doesn't generate much revenue yet and will not probably do so by year end, but further progress and launches in new territories could be instrumental in helping Tesla carve out a niche in the market, which could go rapidly in the next decade or so, or maybe the next year or so. It will be important for investors to monitor that also, which we will obviously do here. Um, and uh, there is also Tesla's full self-driving software for consumer cars, which is currently level two, meaning that although it can drive itself, the uh, you know, the drivers have to pay attention. Tesla's currently working on an unsupervised FSD software, and that could be out again by the end of the year. Baron says this morning this morning about Morgan Stanley note amidst what has been an intentionally cautious roll out in Austin we have observed a this is their quote now we have observed a significant improvement in accident rates there are incidents every 50,000 miles in late 2025 now that gap is at 150,000 miles is at 460,000 mi according to their analysis between incidents but it is also at about 150 50,000 mi after 9 months of operation. So, and Whimo, of course, has been operating since 2023 in Austin. In the US, there are roughly 6 million reported accidents each year, which works out to uh uh very very roughly one every 500,000 miles driven.

[00:14:54]It is tough to compare uh safety statistics, though. Not all driving conditions are the same, and not all accidents are reported. Whimo estimates that it's substantially safer than human drivers, as does, of course, Tesla. The size of Tesla's robo taxi business is immaterial to earnings this year. Um, according to Per Perico, but it says investors are mostly interested in improvement. He's probably right. Robo taxi optimism is one reason shares trade far north of the PE of 200 times earnings. As mentioned earlier in the other article, Larry Ellison is out this morning. This is really cool. AI is rapidly commoditizing because most models are traded on the same public internet data.

[00:15:41]This is what Nick Gibbs has been saying forever. There's only so much data and everybody's using the same data. He says the he goes on to say the real competitive edge isn't the model anymore. It's access to exclusive proprietary data sets. That might be the only moat left. Oh, who has the most exclusive proprietary data set? Oh, that would be let's see SpaceX with Twitter.

[00:16:08]Well, X.com, massive amounts of ongoing developing uh internet data and of course Tesla with the by far the biggest stash of real world data. Of course, this doesn't even include some robo taxi I some Optimus data which will start being added to that real world data. As I've mentioned in the last couple of days, I think that there will be sales, rentals, if you will, of Cortex time uh on the Cortex computers that might include some hybrid data as well. Only person reporting this. Nobody else, not one. You won't find it anywhere else. The April 2020, this is uh Oh, this is Randy Kirk, by the way. And uh you know, do you know what's happening tomorrow? You can't I don't think that it's possible for you to join this, but tomorrow is one of uh Nicholas Gibbs' classes, the one that he calls um the zero day uh method of trading. So, you probably missed that one. Don't think you can even get on.

[00:17:09]It's June Optimus uh uh anal optimist um class, but July is wide open. And if you go down to the comments below, not in comments, the uh instructions below, uh information below, you can definitely sign up. There is a link right there, take you straight over and you can get signed up for July. I'm sure that will sell out quickly as well. All right, the April 2026 advanced goods deficit narrowed modestly month over month and fits a pattern of significant improved narrower trade balances in 2026 compared to the same time periods in 2025. This is driven by stronger exports and restrained imports relative to the prior year. Note that the full April goods and services data will pro which comes out in a couple of weeks will provide a more complete picture and uh revisions are comma common. But for now, we're looking like it's continuing to see this uh uh narrowing of the difference between imports and exports. Wholesale and retail inventory is up strongly today.

[00:18:13]According to Grock, this fits a pattern of inventory rebuilding amid earlier volatility because of tariff etc. Retail gains were broad excluding autos and some breakdowns. While wholesale has not has been seen constructive increase, it's not strongly explosive, but the year-over-year growth and consistency indicates confidence in retailers and wholesalers building stock.

[00:18:39]The Chicago Business Barometer is out this morning and uh it climbed 13.5 points to 62.7 in May. The barometer is now at its highest level since January 22 and is back in expansion territory after one month u I'm sorry after one month below the neutral. This was the joint second largest monthly increase in the barometer since its inception in February 1967.

[00:19:06]Only July 2020 saw a bigger monthly chump. The rise was driven by increases in new orders, production, order backlogs, supplier deliveries, but there was a decline in employment providing some marginal offset. The new orders jumped 18.2 points. Um uh see uh production advanced 11.9 points.

[00:19:31]Order backlogs grew 9.4 points. uh supplier deliveries extended 3.6 points with employment dripping one uh dripping 1.3 and prices paid did increase 3.5 uh uh so that was that's something we don't like to see and inventories recovered in Chicago similar to the national picture by the way the president of the United States dropped back to 43% approval but again that is above his lows around 41%.

[00:20:00]Where does that take us in terms of the market this morning? Well, again, Tesla had dropped all the way down to like 428. I think that was the low this morning. Uh yeah, 428 was the low. We are back to 437.

[00:20:15]Uh Nicholas Gibbs has been saying we need to close above 442 in order to keep the momentum going. Uh so plenty of time uh as I'm reporting right now for that to happen. This is happening even though the Dow is up 6, the Nasdaq is up.12 and the S&P is up.17.

[00:20:31]Overall markets reasonably happy this morning. And of course these are all uh uh new NASDAQ highs, new S&P highs, all-time highs. Apple and Google, Google's down strongly also 1.7. Apple down almost a point. Uh Amazon down a point. Meta down 1.33. So the techs the uh mega mega stocks are are all uh not all but mostly showing some real negative numbers this morning. Nvidia though is up and Microsoft is up strongly up almost 4%. Uh the VIX, let's see where the VIX is. The VIX this morning is down to 15.25.

[00:21:13]We are getting closer and closer to a strong um a strong very strong um market uh you know evidence of people being risk on. At this point, uh, we have got all the Kathy Woods up except for Crisper, but it's not that bad. And but all the rest of them are up nicely. And I think we're going to find out that there's a a corollary there. And the correlary, of course, the bond market.

[00:21:38]And the bond market, the 10 years are down another 1.2. We're now at 4.44.

[00:21:45]Um, can't wait. I guess I I I think we can officially say it. It didn't get back to 3.95 in May. making my prediction wrong, but maybe, okay, it's probably going to take another month, but I think we're still going to get there. So, I'll I'll renew my speculation for 3.95 by the end of June. Oil this morning is down $2.20 for Texas Intermediate to 8670. I think we could be in the 70s by the end of next week if the war continues to the I'm sorry, did I say war? The conflict continues to unwind. Brent is also down almost $286 at 91.85.

[00:22:26]And natural gas continues up.97.

[00:22:29]As I mentioned last night, this seems to be uh market driven. Nothing special. Um maybe some short squeezing. Uh we're up $3.31. So $3.32. That's that's pretty high. We got the gold up 5480 this morning at 4,587. That's strong. But silver is actually off.12 at still above 757582.

[00:22:54]Copper meantime is down 69. $6.38. Still super strong, but definitely not attacking its all-time high at this point. We've got the dollar down a little this morning. We've got Bitcoin uh up 540, but not nearly uh you know, not really recovering much at 73,904.

[00:23:15]Ethereum also up 0.52 still hanging in there above 20 above 2,000. All right, that is the news. You're going to get Larry Goldberg uh later today. You're going to get Brian Wong tomorrow morning at I've decided 7:30ish California time is what seems to be the right time to do it. Sir Basher was on at 7:30 this morning. If you I don't think anybody hasn't seen it yet because the numbers are off the charts. So, but if you haven't seen it yet, you might want to go back and see Sir Basher's video from this morning. And of course, last night, Bradford Ferguson, phenomenal show. We had a great great uh show. Uh if you haven't watched that one yet, you might want to go back and check it out. So, that's what's coming. That's what happened. Uh cards will be up there for you to uh check out some of the past uh activity. And uh there you go. That's where we are on this Friday, the end day of the month. We will have a full docket all weekend, I'm sure, with all of your favorites uh all weekend long.

[00:24:19]Definitely one from Sir Basher almost certainly. Phil and Kent will be uh on the docket this this weekend as well.

[00:24:27]And as I mentioned, Brian Wong, even though this would normally have been a Friday night show, now it turns out it's a Saturday morning show. So, look for that. Okay, that's all I got for you right now. I'm going to sign out. It's been great talking to you. I can't find the button. I now I'm completely confused. I've blown it completely.

[00:24:45]Goodbye.

[00:24:58]I know. I'm still here. I really am going.