Wall Street: The Massive Move Will Come on May 20!

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]But Nvidia's upcoming earnings, May 20th, could provide momentum not just for the chip sector, but for the entire stock market as Wall Street expects revenue for the fiscal first quarter to top 78.6 billion.

[00:00:14]>> And analysts believe these earnings could move [music] not just the stock, but the entire market. Right now, it looks like it is on track for its fourth record close of the year. It's up half a percent at the moment, but over 25 years up 66,700%.

[00:00:31]There is no other company in modern market history that has done what Nvidia has done.

[00:00:36]And yet, right now, something quietly dangerous is happening underneath the surface.

[00:00:42]And the earnings number alone won't tell you what it is.

[00:00:46]The first reason this earnings report can move the entire market is simpler than most people think. I mean, they represent a big percentage of the S&P and the composite, and that's what's driving these averages for the most part to new highs or levitating near new highs. Nvidia and the broader technology sector aren't just individual positions in a portfolio. They represent such a massive share of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite that when they move, everything else moves with them.

[00:01:15]>> [music] >> Think of it this way.

[00:01:17]When you own an index fund, which tens of millions of Americans do, >> [music] >> you already own Nvidia, a big piece of it. So, when Nvidia reports earnings, it doesn't just affect people who bought the stock directly, it affects every retirement account, every passive investor, every pension fund that tracks the index. That's why this isn't just a tech story, it's a market-wide event.

[00:01:39]>> You know, Nvidia is the 800-lb gorilla in the room, and clearly a lot of people are going to be keeping an eye on it.

[00:01:45]The 800-lb gorilla.

[00:01:47]When it moves, the entire room shifts with it. And on May 20th, every institutional investor, every hedge fund, every trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange will be watching the same number at the same moment. And remember that hidden scenario I mentioned at the start? We're getting there. But first, you need to understand what's actually putting pressure on Nvidia right now. Still, at least right now, the company's status as the AI chip king is being tested a bit as it lags behind semiconductor peers AMD and Intel. The artificial intelligence chip king being tested, that's not a phrase anyone was using 12 months ago.

[00:02:27]But look at what's happened in the markets this year and it starts to make sense. And this is the second reason this earnings report matters so much.

[00:02:34]Because the competition is closer than the headlines suggest. So, you've got Nvidia year-to-date up 18%, but AMD's up 109% and Intel, >> [music] >> I mean, crazy, up 227%.

[00:02:47]Advanced Micro Devices up 109%.

[00:02:50]>> [music] >> Intel up 227%.

[00:02:53]Nvidia, the supposed dominant force, up just 18. That gap tells a story.

[00:02:59]When the market starts moving capital away from the leader and into the challengers, it usually means one of two things.

[00:03:05]Either investors believe the challengers are genuinely catching up, or they believe the leader's best growth is already priced in.

[00:03:12]Both of those narratives are dangerous for Nvidia heading into May 20th.

[00:03:16]Advanced Micro Devices has been gaining real traction with cloud customers who are actively trying to reduce their dependency on Nvidia hardware. The biggest technology companies in the world, Microsoft, Amazon, [music] Google, are all quietly developing their own custom chips so they never have to rely on a single supplier again. Nvidia knows this.

[00:03:37]>> [music] >> And the earnings report on May 20th is partly a test of how exposed that dependency has already become.

[00:03:43]Unfortunately, nobody rings a bell. As you know that as well as I do. Nobody rings a bell and tells us when the, you know, when it's time to put in a sell order.

[00:03:51]And greed and greed is, uh you know, fear and greed, and greed's a a pretty strong emotion. Nobody rings a bell.

[00:03:58]That's the honest answer from a veteran trader standing on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Nobody warns you when it's time to take profits. And greed, as he says plainly, is a very powerful emotion. And this brings us to the third reason this report is so significant. The psychological trap that's been building for two straight years. This is where behavioral psychology collides with market reality.

[00:04:22]Nvidia has been the sub been defining momentum trade of this entire artificial intelligence cycle. Every single person who called the top over the last 2 years got it wrong. That track record creates a powerful psychological trap. The longer the trade works, the harder it becomes to think clearly about when to exit. We live in a world of momentum trading. I mean, we see it every day.

[00:04:44]Stocks up and down 10, 15, 20%. You know, this is not something we experienced years ago. Stocks swinging 10, 15, 20% in a single session. That kind of volatility simply didn't exist a decade ago. And when you apply those swings to a company valued in the trillions, the dollar amounts [music] become almost impossible to process.

[00:05:05]Which means that on May 20th, both outcomes carry enormous consequences, and neither direction is truly safe.

[00:05:11][music] And the fourth reason this number matters goes deeper than the stock price itself.

[00:05:16]The real story inside these earnings isn't just whether Nvidia hit 78.6 billion. It's what that number reveals about the pace of artificial intelligence spending across the entire economy.

[00:05:27]Here's how to think about it. Nvidia's biggest customers are Microsoft, Amazon, [music] and Google.

[00:05:33]These three companies have publicly committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on artificial intelligence infrastructure over the next several years. Every time they place a chip order with Nvidia, that demand flows directly into Nvidia's revenue. So, when Nvidia reports its quarterly numbers, it's essentially reporting a real-time snapshot of how aggressively the biggest technology companies in the world are still building out artificial intelligence.

[00:06:00]If the number is strong, >> [music] >> if demand is still outpacing supply, it confirms that the artificial intelligence buildout still has years left to run. Every company in the sector benefits. If the number is soft, if there's any sign that cloud companies are slowing their orders or delaying purchases, it sends a warning signal through the entire technology sector that the cycle is maturing faster than anyone publicly admitted. That's why this single earnings report carries so much weight. It's not really about Nvidia. It's about whether the biggest investment thesis of the last 3 years is still intact. I would I would clearly say trees don't grow to the sky, and it's probably wise to take a little money off the table, but this is a trade that's worked for so so many years now that leads to last couple of years, and why wouldn't it continue? Trees don't grow to the sky. Now, here's the hidden scenario I promised you at the start.

[00:06:52]And this is the one that catches most investors off guard. Nvidia could beat every single estimate on May 20th.

[00:06:59][music] Revenue above 78.6 billion, margins strong, guidance raised.

[00:07:05]Everything the market asked for, delivered. And the stock could still drop. This is what traders call selling the news.

[00:07:12]>> [music] >> Here's how it works. Institutional investors, the large funds managing billions of dollars, have been sitting on enormous Nvidia gains for months.

[00:07:21]They've been waiting for the cleanest possible moment to lock in profits without moving the market against themselves. An earnings beat is that moment. The stock spikes on the headline number, volume surges, and that's exactly when the smart money uses the excitement to quietly sell into strength. [music] The beat becomes the exit door, and the people who understand this walk right through [music] it while retail investors are still celebrating the headline.

[00:07:46]It's happened before to dominant companies at exactly this stage of a momentum cycle.

[00:07:52]And with Nvidia carrying this much institutional ownership, this much unrealized profit, and this much emotional attachment from the market, May 20th sets up that scenario almost perfectly.