BITCOIN: GAME OVER.........

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Guys, it's game over for Bitcoin CI gaps. Yes, you heard me correctly.

[00:00:06]From today onwards, we're no longer going to see Bitcoin CI gaps because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange pivoted to 247 trading. There's no longer going to be peace at the dinner table on a Saturday night when you're eating your steak and your pasta, but President Trump posts on Truth Social, something that moves Bitcoin by 5%.

[00:00:33]You're going to have to leave the table, leave your friends, leave your family, and jump on your phone because we can't revert time anymore. We can't go back to the close of Friday night with a 92% probability. Liquidity is entering markets on the weekend. Neither are the existing CE gaps from $8,000 all the way to $83.7 mean anything. This is what I want to talk about in this update video. I'll give you a new perspective on something that I found on Bitcoin which I think will interest you on the percentage draw down and to what prices we can see Bitcoin fall to when we break below the bare flag support line um and the four-year cycles continue doing their thing. The PCE data, the Fed's preferred metric in determining the interest rates came out on uh the afternoon of the Thursday. We live streamed it completely on the Moon Show channel. this inflation point for all altcoiners and bitcoiners super super irrelevant because it further suggests that the Fed is just not going to cut rates for years and years ahead. People's savings per capita in the US have fallen to the lowest since 2008 April. Meanwhile, the US stock market has been going up for nine weeks straight and I see it leading to an absolute disaster based off of the laws of momentumbased trading. There are updates as always with the US Iran war and crypto news that we must get into.

[00:02:10]It's imperative that we do because it's freaking out headlines like this freaking out people. With that guys, thank you so much for tuning into this brand new CryptoKit video. If you do, destroy the like button. would mean the world to me and help push this video out to as many people in the ether that we can get the video to. Subscribe for daily updates. And if you're looking for a place to be trading, perhaps buying Bitcoin for the first time, check out the links in the description below to our parted exchanges bybit weeks BTCC.

[00:02:42]They're offering you the best campaigns.

[00:02:45]Um I would say probably quite frankly compared to other YouTubers, it's the best. is the most tremendous level. So, check it out in the link in the description. Let's let's go into Bitcoin and go over what Bitcoin is up to.

[00:03:00]Bitcoin is sitting at $74,000, the support line of the bare flag. We've come down to it one, two, three, four times now. It's like punching a wall, but I guess for our analogy, it would be like punching a wall made out of biscuits and crackers. If you punch it four times, it's going to get very weak until the fifth time, maybe the sixth time you punch it, it will eventually collapse and break. Same laws of physics applied to support and resistances in technical analysis. The more you test one, the weaker it gets until you eventually break it. With accordance to the four-year cycles, which Bitcoin is playing out perfectly, the probabilities of seeing a downside movement are very high. And that's what I've been expecting for many, many weeks, and it's what I still expect today. After a failure of 73 with a confirmed daily candle, I would suggest that Bitcoin goes to 67 12 because with the volume in the picture, that's the point of control. And price-wise, not much support until 67 12. Anyways, if that fails, I believe it will, then we have 63 and $60,000.

[00:04:19]After 60k, we can re-evaluate, but I'm looking at 50s, the mid50s for a potential low in October. 53 and a half in particular is interesting.

[00:04:32]Uh because if you look at the prior cycle, you will find that the low in the bare market came in 20% lower than the high of the bull market in 2017. That leads to 53 and a half. You also have three supports created at that exact price level during the seven-month consolidation in 2024.

[00:04:57]They were very strong that it kept Bitcoin in the bull market, kept your bull flag intact and eventually reversed you uh into the bullish direction, allowed Bitcoin to claim $100,000 for the first time. I like the 53 and a half level. I'm not blindsided to the absolute fact that well, even if Bitcoin fell to 29K, you would still be following the laws of diminishing returns and diminishing losses. As an analyst who likes to look at cycles, I care about where we end up being in October. Wherever we are in October, I will believe to be the low. I will believe to be the low. That's what you do in the four-year cycles that are playing out. And when I look into 2022, Benjamin Cohen shows us that we saw a fake out of the bull and bare market resistance like we did uh in in in March of 2022. And these two points timing wise, it's basically the same. Saw a huge run in the initial part of the bull market followed by midcycle bare market followed by a bull flag followed by a double top. That is the ultimate top pushes you into a small consolidation that pushes you into a bare flag where you see a rejection at the highest points from the daily 200 simple moving average and a fake out of the weekly bull and bare market resistance and then a big drop follows. How big will the drop be? We'll have to take it as it comes. For my style of conducting technical analysis, this is not a favorable situation. I'm not claiming that Bitcoin goes to 29K. As an investor, I'm actually buying Bitcoin at 73. I see this asset going to millions of dollars per coin in the future. So 73 is like nothing in comparison to where it will eventually be. But as a leverage trader, I need to sit, wait, and be patient. Um, I will open hail merry long positions if we dump to 60 and into the 50s. And I think you will find those videos very entertaining to watch when we get around to them. PCE data month came lower than forecasts and came lower than previous data. But what we are concerned with is the year-on-year PCE.

[00:07:25]when I made my prediction for what the PC could come up to uh being we were speaking with Isaac Crypto myself on the Moonshow live stream 5 minutes before it was announced and I highlighted two data points that I've seen no one talk about.

[00:07:42]Two out of three consumers are cutting back in of are cutting back in spending in general. So in America, twothirds of all consumers are cutting back in total spending. The personal consumption expenditure looks into the things that the CPI data looks into. The only difference is it eliminates things like energy and it just focuses into purely what you and I consume on a daily basis.

[00:08:12]And if inflation is high, interest rates are not being cut, you're in a tricky situation with monetary policy, then and and I have no savings, the lowest since 2008. Of course, I'm going to cut back on my spending, and that's going to push inflation higher in the short term. Oil prices are already pushing inflation higher in the short term. It's a perfect storm for a disaster. Half of all consumers are delaying the purchase of expensive items. Altcoins fall into the expensive item category. We had altcoin season in 2021 because government the government they doubled the dollars in circulation whilst bringing interest rates to zero. They pressed the button, money fell out of the sky, landed in the banks. The banks had permission to give out that free money that just fell for a 0% almost 0% interest to customers. And the customers were not idiots. So they went to the bank and they took the money and they had money to put into things.

[00:09:19]They had money to buy things. They had stimulus checks. We had the co stimulus checks. So all of a sudden you can afford things like cars and maybe an expensive watch or maybe that vacation you really wanted to take but you weren't able to do so for a long time or even an altcoin. Altcoins are separate to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is recognized by the institutional investors. Bitcoin is recognized by the the strate they have the strategies. They have the strives they are buying daily humongous amounts of Bitcoin. They're buying it. They say that, "Oh, but the institutional investors are actually 80% retail."

[00:10:00]Well, yeah, they are the rich Gen Xers.

[00:10:03]They are the richer millennials or the better income millennials and baby boomers who've stashed large amounts of money. They have their money at Black Rockck of Fidelity with their wealth advisors. And those wealth advisers control their portfolio. If they want to funnel 3% of their portfolio into Bitcoin, they'll do it. And then they'll say, "It's the retail money buying into Bitcoin." No, it's not the 22year-old at college who's putting money into Bitcoin that's causing Bitcoin to go up. It's the wealth advisor and the wealth managers at the big institutions. It is the Michael Sailor who even if he is selling onchain, right, onchain shows onchain data shows that he sold $30 million, the first since December of 2022, they still bought 2.6 six times the natural supply of Bitcoin in 2026.

[00:10:53]So, they can keep Bitcoin up and they're even struggling to do so right now. So, how on earth are all coins supposed to survive? Altcoins can't survive. You need to see a mix of very low interest rates with expanding M2 money supply and just, you know, crypto needs to be relevant. I think it will be relevant.

[00:11:12]M2 Money supply is expanding. The only missing thing in the equation is lower interest rates, and it doesn't look like we're going to be receiving those lower interest rates due to high inflation.

[00:11:23]The Fed dot plot projects that no significant rate cuts will happen until about 2029. This is subject to change, but from what I'm seeing, I'll have to be crypto adult or crypto grandpa to experience an Ethereum at $10,000. So, I'm holding steady. I think the Clarity Act will enable certain altcoins to go up. I see Ethereum going up. I see things that enable RWA going up, Stellar uh going up. I'll talk about altcoins this weekend and what the DTCC announced. Mind-boggling stuff. But the majority of altcoins will remain in their lows and continue their consolidation. uh once we get the big interest rate cut, sure, I see the run, but we need to stay patient and I'm keeping my portfolio Bitcoin heavy uh until that time arrives. What about the S&P crypto kit? The S&P is hitting all-time high after all-time high for the past 9 weeks, and none of it is translating into crypto. Well, it's going up because of the AI bubble. Only AI stocks and chip manufacturing stocks are representing that increase.

[00:12:36]Everything else in the stock market in the S&P 500, they're down. Like crypto 2, look at IGV, look at SAS and software companies, they're down. It's only the AI ones that are going up. And it's looking ugly for AI. Even under the best case assumptions, Financial Times's own data shows that Microsoft's AI ROI is negative 9%, Google negative 15%, Meta negative 28%, Oracle negative 35%.

[00:13:05]Companies are losing money in their AI investments, but their stocks are increasing to tens of multiples to their earnings per year. According to the laws of momentum and the laws of logic, the S&P is bound for a reversal. I see the top either on this candle, this weekly candle or the next weekly candle. After that, TD sequential suggests one to four weeks of correction on the S&P, which will enable Bitcoin to break below its support line and head lower. So, for those of you that are wondering why do we have that disorrelation, it's AI. The answer is AI. I see an overall top coming with the SpaceX IPO. Crypto topped out with altcoins in 2021. The stock market will top out with SpaceX and Open AI's IPO here in 2026. The updates with the US Iran situation are there and there are developments. We went from having Trump say two days ago, we have things understood with Iran, I think we're doing well in terms of the talks to we're not there yet on the Iran deal.

[00:14:14]We're not satisfied with it. Oman will have to behave like everyone else and suggesting military action on a country that has been a mediator like Pakistan throughout this very ugly tragic situation. And then the military action came. We have military action between US and Iran which seems to have now fizzled and there is news that a memorandum of understanding on a 60day ceasefire being reached by the Trump administration but Trump still has to approve. There's so much so much confusion on the facts on on on where things are going. Apparently there's a $300 billion reconstruction fund that's been made for Iran in this deal.

[00:14:59]Nobody knows what happens tomorrow and I'm just not taking the geopolitics into account for my trading because really everything just changes in the snap of fingers. All we can do is pray for the best outcome of humanity and and watch and and keep our eyes open, remain pragmatic. At least the hunter virus seems to have disappeared. I mean I don't know where it disappeared too.

[00:15:24]Hopefully, it truly has disappeared um to to and doesn't impact humans anymore.

[00:15:29]But yeah, that was a big scare from when I was in Miami. Talking of scares, Black Rockck sold over $500 million of Bitcoin today, marking the largest outflow ever from the IB ETF. Don't worry, I know this looks concerning. Even though Bitcoin is down 40%, the ETFs have only sold off 10% since the all-time high of Bitcoin, which is great. It shows resilience. We have no more CME gaps. We don't have CME gaps. Why? Algorithmic traders will no longer do arbitrageing with CME and Bitcoin spot price. Since there's 247 trading, you don't have the institutions having to close positions on Friday, reopen on Monday anymore. Why 247 trading exists? So, semi gaps no longer a thing and prior existing gaps have lost their relevance. The world is shifting to 247 trading. Bitcoin perpetuals are going online in America.

[00:16:31]That narrative of gaps in the order book will dissipate. And once the narrative dissipates with the underlying root cause of gaps being gone, prior uh prior, you know, spots in the price where it wasn't filled yet, like they they just don't matter. So $8,000 to 83.7 to 79.1 to 69.7 to 67.1. These are not things we will cover anymore. It's the end of an era and I'm removing this chart once and for all because it's no longer relevant. Strive bought a whopping 544 Bitcoin with their SAD.

[00:17:08]They're doing better than STRC because they distribute dividends daily unlike STRC's monthly dividend payouts. And to to conclude things, the White House's Trump accounts have finally arrived.

[00:17:21]It's one of the things that I think the Trump administration have done a good job with because if kids are given the Trump accounts and the parents can contribute to the $5,000 maximum per year which you can contribute through the power of compound interesting your child when they turn 18. They'll have a chunk of money which you can use for college and other things. It will be a substantial amount of money. It shows the power of compound interesting.

[00:17:47]Albert Einstein once said that it was the most powerful force in the universe.

[00:17:51]So use it wisely, my American friends.

[00:17:53]Thank you for watching. Take care and I'll see you tomorrow when we talk about all coins. Bye-bye.